Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Coathanger said:
Seriously.....Guess we should follow C'wood's lead then......How about you concentrate on your own rabble!
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Last year I completed a scathing video on Collingwood's offseason moves and I'd be no more complementary if I completed an update of Collingwood's situation today.

There is very little I can say about Collingwood at the moment that would be complementary, though as someone who watches all teams play and having an audience much wider than just Collingwood fans, if I have an opinion I'd like to share and a learning I can impart with it, that's when I'll feel compelled as with Hawthorn's decision to move on from Clarkson to say something.

A club choosing to move on the competition's best and most successful coach from the past 15 years when they're still motivated to continue coaching their club? And someone who still positively impacts winning, culture and bringing in the best staff and players? That qualifies.
 
Hi KM, with the list of invited Draft Combine players out now, apart form Corey Preston, are there any other 19 year olds over looked in last years draft and this years MSD on the list?
 

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Shannin said:
Hi KM, with the list of invited Draft Combine players out now, apart form Corey Preston, are there any other 19 year olds over looked in last years draft and this years MSD on the list?
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Generally there are few overagers. Preston was invited because he hadn't had meaningful exposure before this year and has made progress this year. The other interesting older one is Leek Alleer who is a 19 year old key defender from the SANFL. For his age, he's an intercept marking force and looks highly developable. Worner is another who has attracted interest as an overager.
 
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Knightmare said:
Generally there are few overagers. Preston was invited because he hadn't had meaningful exposure before this year and has made progress this year. The other interesting older one is Leek Alleer who is a 19 year old key defender from the SANFL. For his age, he's an intercept marking force and looks highly developable.
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Would be very happy if the pies took Alleer as a late pick but big chance he will be gone
 
Shannin said:
Would be very happy if the pies took Alleer as a late pick but big chance he will be gone
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Without any particular inside intel, I wouldn't be surprised if Alleer featured in the second round. He's that kind of talent where I feel he's deserving. If he fell late I'd suggest he's good value.
 
AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Sam Skinner:

Former Brisbane key position player Sam Skinner looks primed to earn another AFL opportunity. Continuing his strong vein of form with 22 disposals, 10 marks (two contested) and six rebound 50s for South Adelaide in their 13-point loss against Port Adelaide, Skinner has looked a new player since switching into defence. This follows games with 12 marks (four contested) and 11 marks (four contested) in the two weeks prior, proving he can be a plug-and-play piece for AFL sides.
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Point of discussion: With all the key defenders available both from opposition lists and through the state leagues. Who would be your #1 target this offseason? Blake Schlensog? Leek Alleer? Sam Skinner? Or someone from a rival AFL list (if so specify who)?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...afl-defender-sam-skinner-starring-state-level
 
Would love to see Sam Skinner get another shot at an AFL career, so unlucky with injury at the Lions, I always thought he had something.
 
Jason mp said:
Would love to see Sam Skinner get another shot at an AFL career, so unlucky with injury at the Lions, I always thought he had something.
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He's looking like a fundamentally improved player. At Brisbane I wasn't even confident he was more than depth, so his delisting at the time felt understandable as there was no clear path to him being a best-22 piece at either end. This year he's showing he's AFL material.

You had Tom Clurey in defence at the other end of the field, and Skinner played the better football. Skinner's past three games in fact have been better than each of Clurey's four SANFL games this year, and Clurey is no spud. He's a genuine AFL calibre key defender in his own right.
 
Knightmare said:
He's looking like a fundamentally improved player. At Brisbane I wasn't even confident he was more than depth, so his delisting at the time felt understandable as there was no clear path to him being a best-22 piece at either end. This year he's showing he's AFL material.

You had Tom Clurey in defence at the other end of the field, and Skinner played the better football. Skinner's past three games in fact have been better than each of Clurey's four SANFL games this year, and Clurey is no spud. He's a genuine AFL calibre key defender in his own right.
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Through no fault of his own Sam never got a good crack at it at the Lions, 3 knee reconstructions.
 
Knightmare said:
He's looking like a fundamentally improved player. At Brisbane I wasn't even confident he was more than depth, so his delisting at the time felt understandable as there was no clear path to him being a best-22 piece at either end. This year he's showing he's AFL material.

You had Tom Clurey in defence at the other end of the field, and Skinner played the better football. Skinner's past three games in fact have been better than each of Clurey's four SANFL games this year, and Clurey is no spud. He's a genuine AFL calibre key defender in his own right.
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Even though they are different players, who would you say is better out of Schlensog and Skinner?
 
Big_Newon said:
Even though they are different players, who would you say is better out of Schlensog and Skinner?
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Skinner can have an even more immediate impact where he could get drafted and play round one, but if I could only have one, Schlensog is the one I'd want being those years younger and being a rapid developer without the injury history.
 

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Hi Knightmare, thanks again for your awesome contribution to BigFooty during the year. What do you see as Geelong’s biggest needs for the draft this year and what type of players might they be looking at? Would Mitch Knevitt be a possibility given we only have 3 x second rounders or would we need to trade up to get him? In my opinion, I think Geelong desperately need some elite midfield talent.
 
petrolium said:
Hi Knightmare, thanks again for your awesome contribution to BigFooty during the year. What do you see as Geelong’s biggest needs for the draft this year and what type of players might they be looking at? Would Mitch Knevitt be a possibility given we only have 3 x second rounders or would we need to trade up to get him? In my opinion, I think Geelong desperately need some elite midfield talent.
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Geelong certainly need midfield youth and love going local. Knevitt in the second round is suitable for selection and looks developable, showing progressing over his last month of games in particular. Always nice having that tall 194cm mid. It's possible Knevitt goes first round, though I feel second round is more his range.

A good established ruckman is a pressing need given how in/out of favour Rhys Stanley continues to be. Add a good one, and Geelong's short term premiership chances elevate. Perhaps a Max Lynch could be traded for.

The third would be bringing in the next generation of key position players, with those stocks needing replenishing. This offseason a key defender should be easy to find with the unheard of number of good cheap options available, so perhaps that would mean 2022 offseason might be the time to go looking for another good key forward. Perhaps bringing back Blake Schlensog could be an option, or maybe it's drafting a Leek Alleer from SA with Geelong the best I've seen when it comes to identifying and drafting those mature agers, and extracting simply ridiculous value with some of those they pick.
 
A best 22 of those not included in the AFL All Australian squad of 40:

The three most unlucky misses in my view: Tom Liberatore, Kysaiah Pickett and Harris Andrews

Point of discussion: Any from the squad of 40 you'd replace with from my team?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1NEEBj1vXc
 
Knightmare said:
A best 22 of those not included in the AFL All Australian squad of 40:

The three most unlucky misses in my view: Tom Liberatore, Kysaiah Pickett and Harris Andrews

Point of discussion: Any from the squad of 40 you'd replace with from my team?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1NEEBj1vXc
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Pickett?
This year Weightman went past him as the better small forward from his draft! Not sure how he can be AA?

Libba gets no protection from the umpires, gets tackled & pushed from behind before the ball is even tapped by the ruckman…. IF he got the same protection as a few other midfielders do, he would make the team. As he doesn’t, he isn’t AA squad level. Lots of footage around showing what I am talking about….

Agree on Andrews. I would even have him in the team.
 
Knightmare said:
Geelong certainly need midfield youth and love going local. Knevitt in the second round is suitable for selection and looks developable, showing progressing over his last month of games in particular. Always nice having that tall 194cm mid. It's possible Knevitt goes first round, though I feel second round is more his range.

A good established ruckman is a pressing need given how in/out of favour Rhys Stanley continues to be. Add a good one, and Geelong's short term premiership chances elevate. Perhaps a Max Lynch could be traded for.

The third would be bringing in the next generation of key position players, with those stocks needing replenishing. This offseason a key defender should be easy to find with the unheard of number of good cheap options available, so perhaps that would mean 2022 offseason might be the time to go looking for another good key forward. Perhaps bringing back Blake Schlensog could be an option, or maybe it's drafting a Leek Alleer from SA with Geelong the best I've seen when it comes to identifying and drafting those mature agers, and extracting simply ridiculous value with some of those they pick.
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I'd like to pick up knevitt but surely the hype has him our of our current range now. Trade with the Dogs would probably be required. Ready to go KP players sure we might have a look but draftees would surely clog the vfl list with all the development talls we currently have?
 
LittleG said:
Pickett?
This year Weightman went past him as the better small forward from his draft! Not sure how he can be AA?

Libba gets no protection from the umpires, gets tackled & pushed from behind before the ball is even tapped by the ruckman…. IF he got the same protection as a few other midfielders do, he would make the team. As he doesn’t, he isn’t AA squad level. Lots of footage around showing what I am talking about….

Agree on Andrews. I would even have him in the team.
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Pickett beats Weightman in most statistical categories.

If i'm also trying to act one-eyed, Dylan Moore kicked the same amount of goals as Pickett and they were comparable in nearly every other statistical categories.
 
LittleG said:
Pickett?
This year Weightman went past him as the better small forward from his draft! Not sure how he can be AA?

Libba gets no protection from the umpires, gets tackled & pushed from behind before the ball is even tapped by the ruckman…. IF he got the same protection as a few other midfielders do, he would make the team. As he doesn’t, he isn’t AA squad level. Lots of footage around showing what I am talking about….

Agree on Andrews. I would even have him in the team.
Click to expand...

22 games v 13 in Pickett v Weightman. Hard to be an All-Australian when you only play half a season. Even on a per game basis, I'm taking Pickett if I can have one or the other on 2021 play and I don't necessarily rate them as closely as many others would. Weightman is the greater overhead threat but for tackles per game, tackles i50 and pressure acts, Pickett stands out ahead with separation at this stage to the extent where I'd even be prepared to say he's the competition's premier small forward at this time.

For tackles inside 50m, Pickett ranks third (behind only Neal-Bullen and J.Cripps). For forward 50m ground ball gets, Pickett is 5th this year (behind Papley/Hawkins/Petracca/Greene). For pressure acts he's 25th and 3rd of all forwards (behind only Butler and Neal-Bullen) and for goals kicked he's of those who aren't 190cm+ 5th (behind Cameron/Fritsch/Greene/Papley). Having that tackling/pressure/ground ball winning/contested/goal kicking combination to his game, he's pretty close to the perfect small forward and when you're looking for small forwards, you're after proficiency in those areas to complement your talls, particularly with how the key forwards have become more valuable this year. With none of the better goal kickers anywhere near him in the tackling or pressure components or those better pressure types not able to hit the scoreboard like Pickett can, he's my pick. Greene I would regard as this year's best general forward, but he hasn't played enough, and I'd pick a Zorko also ahead of Pickett, but he has played a lot of midfield, so Pickett would in a forward pocket be my choice this year if I'm to credit a specialist small forward.

Pickett from a gameplan and winning perspective has been perhaps the biggest difference for Melbourne between last year and this year. His pressure forward of centre has been huge and if you look at any metrics around their forward pressure it will show how much better it is this season with Pickett doing what he's doing this year.

And none of that should be see as me putting down Weightman. He's looking like a very good piece now and has become a valuable component in his own right.

I haven't put an All-Australian team together but Liberatore would be close if not in there. He's #1 for clearances per game, #3 for pressure acts and would be up there for tackles and contested possessions too. As with the forwards, through the midfield I like those really high pressure mids who win a high % contested and how they impact games - as factors that enhance the value of those tall marking key defenders. Liber doesn't have the impact of a lot of guys outside of stoppages, but still at stoppages there aren't many I'd want ahead of him because he allows you to play a more offensively geared midfielder, as the type of midfielder who impacts games in not necessarily the ways people generally look at.

Blackhawk42 said:
Pickett beats Weightman in most statistical categories.

If i'm also trying to act one-eyed, Dylan Moore kicked the same amount of goals as Pickett and they were comparable in nearly every other statistical categories.
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For tackles/tackles i50/pressure acts/ground ball gets/contested/goals Pickett does have separation.

I won't discredit the season Dylan Moore has had though. He's one of Hawthorn's capable young players and has played good footy.

On 2021 play of interest. Breust or Moore? Who has played the better season?
 
CatToTheFuture said:
I'd like to pick up knevitt but surely the hype has him our of our current range now. Trade with the Dogs would probably be required. Ready to go KP players sure we might have a look but draftees would surely clog the vfl list with all the development talls we currently have?
Click to expand...

I don't suggest Geelong go tall through the draft in terms of youth. The young talls this year aren't great. It's a good year to take a ready-to-go state leaguer or someone undervalued from a rival list.
 
Knightmare said:
22 games v 13 in Pickett v Weightman. Hard to be an All-Australian when you only play half a season. Even on a per game basis, I'm taking Pickett if I can have one or the other on 2021 play and I don't necessarily rate them as closely as many others would. Weightman is the greater overhead threat but for tackles per game, tackles i50 and pressure acts, Pickett stands out ahead with separation at this stage to the extent where I'd even be prepared to say he's the competition's premier small forward at this time.

For tackles inside 50m, Pickett ranks third (behind only Neal-Bullen and J.Cripps). For forward 50m ground ball gets, Pickett is 5th this year (behind Papley/Hawkins/Petracca/Greene). For pressure acts he's 25th and 3rd of all forwards (behind only Butler and Neal-Bullen) and for goals kicked he's of those who aren't 190cm+ 5th (behind Cameron/Fritsch/Greene/Papley). Having that tackling/pressure/ground ball winning/contested/goal kicking combination to his game, he's pretty close to the perfect small forward and when you're looking for small forwards, you're after proficiency in those areas to complement your talls, particularly with how the key forwards have become more valuable this year. With none of the better goal kickers anywhere near him in the tackling or pressure components or those better pressure types not able to hit the scoreboard like Pickett can, he's my pick. Greene I would regard as this year's best general forward, but he hasn't played enough, and I'd pick a Zorko also ahead of Pickett, but he has played a lot of midfield, so Pickett would in a forward pocket be my choice this year if I'm to credit a specialist small forward.

Pickett from a gameplan and winning perspective has been perhaps the biggest difference for Melbourne between last year and this year. His pressure forward of centre has been huge and if you look at any metrics around their forward pressure it will show how much better it is this season with Pickett doing what he's doing this year.

And none of that should be see as me putting down Weightman. He's looking like a very good piece now and has become a valuable component in his own right.

I haven't put an All-Australian team together but Liberatore would be close if not in there. He's #1 for clearances per game, #3 for pressure acts and would be up there for tackles and contested possessions too. As with the forwards, through the midfield I like those really high pressure mids who win a high % contested and how they impact games - as factors that enhance the value of those tall marking key defenders. Liber doesn't have the impact of a lot of guys outside of stoppages, but still at stoppages there aren't many I'd want ahead of him because he allows you to play a more offensively geared midfielder, as the type of midfielder who impacts games in not necessarily the ways people generally look at.



For tackles/tackles i50/pressure acts/ground ball gets/contested/goals Pickett does have separation.

I won't discredit the season Dylan Moore has had though. He's one of Hawthorn's capable young players and has played good footy.

On 2021 play of interest. Breust or Moore? Who has played the better season?
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Breust has been better probs, Moore is probably close tho and arguably could be better next year.

Moore wins more footy than Pickett, uses it better and has kicked similar amounts of goals in a worse team. Both similar with Moore leading in scoring things like assists and involvements but are similar (like goals). Inside 50 tackles are the same.
 
Knightmare said:
I don't suggest Geelong go tall through the draft in terms of youth. The young talls this year aren't great. It's a good year to take a ready-to-go state leaguer or someone undervalued from a rival list.
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Probably a bit of a general throwaway question looking for a general throwaway answer but do you see many midfielders that'll be available in the 30s that you'd be keen on? Most phantoms only go to 30 or even 20
 
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