Ladder Predictor after freo match

[kangamike]

Geelong 19 3 0 2379 1769 76 134.4
Hawthorn 17 5 0 2133 1889 68 112.9
Collingwood 16 6 0 2081 1977 64 105.2
Kangaroos 14 8 0 2101 2076 56 101.2
West Coast 13 9 0 2024 1927 52 105.0
W Bulldogs 13 9 0 2275 2241 52 101.5
Adelaide 12 10 0 1948 1790 48 108.8
Port Adel 12 10 0 2202 2133 48 103.2

Sydney 11 11 0 2016 1855 44 108.6
Essendon 11 11 0 2204 2252 44 97.8
St Kilda 10 12 0 1889 2004 40 94.2
Fremantle 8 14 0 2158 2164 32 99.7
Bris Lions 7 14 1 1965 2049 30 95.9
Melbourne 5 17 0 1958 2306 20 84.9
Carlton 4 18 0 2215 2704 16 81.9
Richmond 3 18 1 1995 2407 14 82.8

I have us in the 4

 

[Star]

Good work, I am hoping before the year is out we might be able to have at least one big win and get that % up as all of a sudden the 4 or 5 teams around us don't have the huge % they once had.

Also, can you find Carlton another win (not against us) - I'd hate to see them get the #1 pick!

 

[FrangaRoo]

The way we are playing, top 4 at seasons end certainly isnt beyond us. I love the attitude that they are playing with where they dont fear any team.

I'll be VERY happy for us just to make the 8...the league is so even, we could beat anyone once we got there (although id love a finals game in Melbourne just to bury the demons about the last one we had)

 

[Hawkk]

Massive win against Fremantle - a result that definately surprised me.

Win next week - in potentially a danger game against Melbourne?, and you're guarnteed at the very least a top 6 spot...and a home final.

Your percentage is a bit of a worry, so a 60-100 point win against Melbourne is a must to boost that percentage up...ultimately percenatage could well determine who finishes in the top 3-4 and who finishes 5th.

 

[roobear]

link please?

 

[Star]

a 60-100 point win against Melbourne is a must.

Hard to fault our boys this year but have not put anyone away

Won't get a better chance than a depleted Melbourne team but even a 30-40 point win could be best case scenario

 

[HooRoo]

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0
2 West Coast 22 15 7 0
3 Port Adel 22 15 7 0
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0
5 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0
6 Sydney 22 14 8 0
7 Hawthorn 22 13 9 0
8 Adelaide 22 12 10 0

9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0
10 W Bulldogs 22 11 11 0

I have us fifth, but equal second, just our percentage killing us. Have us losing Haw & Geel but beating West Coast & Bris (in Bris). The Haw & WC games are classic 8 pointers.

Would love to finish 4th and get Geelong first week of the finals.


(link http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php )

 

[cameronn]

I have Geelong, Swans, Saints and Collingwood finishing strongly, the Pies have a dream run home. West Coast squeezing in on % after falling out of the 8 momentarily. Kangas with 5-2 for remainder with losses to Cats and Hawks.

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2440 1708 72 142.8
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2161 1897 64 113.9
3 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2137 2040 60 104.7
8 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2074 1797 56 115.4
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2149 1873 56 114.7
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2267 2068 52 109.6
11 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 1969 1924 52 102.3
4 West Coast 22 12 10 0 2080 1871 48 111.1

9 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1954 1784 48 109.5
7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2263 2253 48 100.4
10 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2161 2295 44 94.1
13 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 2087 2235 32 93.3
12 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1951 2063 30 94.5
15 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1944 2320 20 83.7
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2097 2822 16 74.3
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1809 2593 6 69.7

 

[wombles]

I have merely selected the team highest on the ladder as of today to win for each round. It's simplistic but as good a method as any.

If that were to occur it wouls shake out like so.

1 	Geelong 	22 	19 	 3 	 0 	2379 	1769 	76 	134.4
 2 	Hawthorn 	22 	17 	 5 	 0 	2139 	1883 	68 	113.5
 6 	Collingwood 	22 	16 	 6 	 0 	2093 	1965 	64 	106.5
 4 	West Coast 	22 	15 	 7 	 0 	2036 	1915 	60 	106.3
 [B]3 	Kangaroos 	22 	15 	 7 	 0 	2129 	2048 	60 	103.9[/B]
 5 	Port Adel 	22 	14 	 8 	 0 	2226 	2109 	56 	105.5
 8 	Sydney 	22 	12 	10 	 0 	2022 	1849 	48 	109.3
[B] 7 	W Bulldogs 	22 	12 	10 	 0 	2269 	2247 	48 	100.9[/B]


 9 	Adelaide 	22 	11 	11 	 0 	1954 	1784 	44 	109.5
10 	Essendon 	22 	11 	11 	 0 	2198 	2258 	44 	 97.3

Leaving us the task of playing the dogs three times in a season and back to back!

 

[roobear]

I put in a fairly pessimistic prediction, where we finish the season 3-4. We finish 8th in that scenario and play the crows away in week 1 of the finals. The good thing is, that is close to a worst-case scenario and we still make it.

Change a couple of results around and we are 4th and against Geelong at the G with the double chance!

 

[rooboy_90]

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2403 1745 76 137.7
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2117 1941 64 109.0
3 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2157 2020 60 106.7
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2127 1895 56 112.2
8 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2050 1821 52 112.5
9 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 1972 1766 52 111.6
4 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2030 1921 52 105.6
11 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 1919 1974 52 97.2
5 Port Adel 22 12 10 0 2255 2080 48 108.4
7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2269 2247 48 100.9
10 Essendon 22 10 12 0 2186 2270 40 96.2
13 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 2176 2146 32 101.3
12 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1945 2069 30 94.0
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1884 2380 16 79.1
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2122 2797 16 75.8
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1931 2471 10 78.1

 

[Roos4eva]

Predicted Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2425 1723 76 140.7
2 Hawthorn 22 16 6 0 2139 1883 64 113.5
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2123 1935 64 109.7
3 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2143 2034 60 105.3
8 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2074 1797 52 115.4
9 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 1990 1748 52 113.8
4 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2052 1899 52 108.0
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2226 2109 52 105.5

7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2275 2241 48 101.5
11 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 1923 1970 44 97.6
10 Essendon 22 10 12 0 2168 2288 40 94.7
13 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 2146 2176 32 98.6
12 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1935 2079 30 93.0
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1880 2384 16 78.8
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2151 2768 16 77.7
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1893 2509 6 75.4

 

[BZAROO]

even if we lose to hawthorn, west coast brisbane geelong and bulldogs,
we should still scrape it in...
MUST beat melbourne & carlton! can't afford to let those 2 slip!

 

[BZAROO]

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2450 1698 76 144.2
2 Hawthorn 22 16 6 0 2157 1865 64 115.6
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2111 1947 64 108.4
4 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2089 1862 60 112.1
5 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2228 2107 56 105.7
8 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2068 1803 52 114.6
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2263 2253 52 100.4
3 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2133 2044 48 104.3

9 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1960 1778 44 110.2
10 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2198 2258 44 97.3
11 St Kilda 22 10 12 0 1865 2028 40 91.9
12 Bris Lions 22 8 13 1 1965 2049 34 95.9
13 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 2134 2188 32 97.5
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1900 2364 16 80.3
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2157 2762 16 78.0
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1865 2537 6 73.5

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AFL Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 15 12 3 0 1658 1090 48 152.1
2 Hawthorn 15 10 5 0 1412 1210 40 116.7
3 Kangaroos 15 10 5 0 1398 1379 40 101.4
4 West Coast 15 9 6 0 1321 1230 36 107.4
5 Port Adel 15 9 6 0 1505 1430 36 105.2
6 Collingwood 15 9 6 0 1360 1298 36 104.8
7 W Bulldogs 15 9 6 0 1572 1544 36 101.8
8 Sydney 15 8 7 0 1319 1152 32 114.5

9 Adelaide 15 8 7 0 1245 1093 32 113.9
10 Essendon 15 8 7 0 1507 1549 32 97.3
11 St Kilda 15 7 8 0 1192 1301 28 91.6
12 Bris Lions 15 6 8 1 1280 1334 26 96.0
13 Fremantle 15 6 9 0 1467 1455 24 100.8
14 Carlton 15 4 11 0 1536 1983 16 77.5
15 Melbourne 15 3 12 0 1267 1597 12 79.3
16 Richmond 15 1 13 1 1304 1698 6 76.8

 

[Event Horizon]

Also, can you find Carlton another win (not against us) - I'd hate to see them get the #1 pick!

What, you'd rather Terry the Tank Engine grabbed it?

 

[RoyalBlue]

Every time I run it through I can't get us to finish lower than 5th.

 

[Shinboner Schem]

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2450 1698 76 144.2
2 Hawthorn 22 16 6 0 2157 1865 64 115.6
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2111 1947 64 108.4
4 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2089 1862 60 112.1
5 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2228 2107 56 105.7
8 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2068 1803 52 114.6
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2263 2253 52 100.4
3 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2133 2044 48 104.3

9 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1960 1778 44 110.2
10 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2198 2258 44 97.3

Predicting a little 2005 payback are we?

 

[apollo_creed]

Forgive me guys.

I have us going 3-4.

1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2423 1725 68 140.4
6 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2127 1931 60 110.1
9 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 2004 1734 52 115.5
2 Hawthorn 22 13 9 0 2125 1897 52 112.0
4 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2062 1889 52 109.1
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2246 2089 52 107.5
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2281 2235 52 102.0
3 Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2079 2098 52 99.0

8 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2050 1821 48 112.5
11 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 1895 1998 44 94.8
12 Bris Lions 22 10 11 1 1947 2067 42 94.1
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2174 2148 36 101.2
10 Essendon 22 9 13 0 2124 2332 36 91.0
14 Carlton 22 6 16 0 2187 2732 24 80.0
16 Richmond 22 4 17 1 1957 2445 18 80.0
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1862 2402 16 77.5

It came down to the last game.

We were = with Adelaide and Hawthorn and needed one of them to lose and us to beat the Bulldogs to make top 4. (3rd spot)

And while I have both those two teams losing their respective matches, I also have us losing by 1 goal to the Bulldogs.

That might just be the swing match, the difference. (in likelehood it probably will)

Whether it decides whether we make the top 4, play interstate first week or make the finals at all....

I can't see it not having significant meaning attached to it.

I had us winning,

Melbourne, Carlton, West Coast

losing,

Hawthorn - Aurora factor
Brisbane - They're playing better now + the Gabba
Geelong - Extremely good side
Western Bulldogs - Two evenly matched sides and it's the swing game. Could go either way.

The only game I don't see us winning is Geelong.

Hawthorn and Brisbane are both very winnable games.

 

[giantroo]

Friday, July 20
Geelong v Western Bulldogs (Telstra Dome) 7:40pm
Saturday, July 21
Collingwood v Essendon (MCG) 2:10pm
Adelaide v Fremantle (AAMI) 3:10pm
St. Kilda v Hawthorn (Telstra Dome) 7:10pm
West Coast v Sydney (Subiaco) 7:40pm
Sunday, July 22
Brisbane Lions v Carlton (Gabba) 1:10pm
Richmond v Port Adelaide (MCG) 2:10pm
Kangaroos v Melbourne (Telstra Dome) 5:10pm


I've gone with 2 upsets this week - freo and sydney.

Geelong to beat doggies and keep them away from us
Pies to beat dons to keep dons out of 8
freo to upset adeliade to keep adeliade out of the 8
Hawthorn to beat saints and give a lead up to the following week
Lions comfortably
Port to win
kangaroos to smash melbourne. (last time i was wary) his time im confident.


1. Geelong
2. Hawks
3. Roos
4. Port
5. Pies
6. Sydney
7. West Coast
8. Dogs
9. Adeliade
10. Lions
11. Saints
12. Freo

 

[Shinboner Schem]

This is the worst I can see:

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2419 1729 72 139.9
2 Hawthorn 22 16 6 0 2139 1883 64 113.5
4 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2042 1909 56 106.9
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2093 1965 56 106.5
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2214 2121 52 104.3
3 Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2113 2064 52 102.3
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2263 2253 52 100.4
8 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2040 1831 48 111.4

But this is the best I (realistically) see:

1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2413 1735 68 139.0
3 Kangaroos 22 16 6 0 2131 2046 64 104.1
2 Hawthorn 22 15 7 0 2133 1889 60 112.9
4 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2042 1909 56 106.9
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2093 1965 56 106.5
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2214 2121 52 104.3
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2263 2253 52 100.4
8 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2040 1831 48 111.4

But this is what i'm tipping it to be:

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2419 1729 72 139.9
2 Hawthorn 22 15 7 0 2133 1889 60 112.9
4 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2042 1909 56 106.9
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2093 1965 56 106.5
3 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2119 2058 56 102.9
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2214 2121 52 104.3
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2263 2253 52 100.4
8 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2040 1831 48 111.4
9 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1954 1784 48 109.5
10 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2222 2234 48 99.4

 

[desie]

I'm probably getting a bit ahead of myself here, but if we could jag fourth spot and play Geelong first up we've got to be a fair chance for the Preliminary Final and a week off the way we're travelling.

Perhaps that's just wishful thinking, but it sounds good.

 

[Yianni]

I'm probably getting a bit ahead of myself here, but if we could jag fourth spot and play Geelong first up we've got to be a fair chance for the Preliminary Final and a week off the way we're travelling.

Perhaps that's just wishful thinking, but it sounds good.

Especially if Geelong don't lose again for the rest of the season.

Then it would go:
LOSS TO ROOS
18 STRAIGHT WINS
LOSS TO ROOS

Sweet...