Um, well start with $500 then. Whatever.
Its not "whatever" you said $5k, there is a big difference between that and 10% of it when you get your numbers wrong.
If you tip the last game of the round you will know exactly what your situation is going into that game. You can't lose if you know your bank.
Of course you can at F7, unless 5 or 6 all lose there tip before you then knowing you will be down to 4 people after this round means nothing with so many variables in this competition. Then what if others also choose the final match?
There is also a rule - if everyone gets their tip wrong - everyone goes through to the next week. So if you back against your tip and by that stage of the round (last game) everyone else has got their tip wrong - THEN YOU REALLY CAN'T LOSE.
I know there is that rule, but playing best case scenario out in your head is hardly going to guarantee a profit at F7. Once you are down to if your tip wins then you win the $50k prize things are remarkably simple.
Either your tip gets up, you get the $50,000. Or your tip loses so you pocket a winning line bet and go through to the next round. This happened to me twice near the end of the year I played. I know what I'm talking about.
It doesnt take a genius to work that out. But it still has zero relevance to chucking $5k (or less now you say) against your tip at F7 with so many variables left in that you cannot cover for and will send you broke.
I know what im talking about.