Last year's late season form is usually a good indicator.

[Elite Crow]

D Flog, how did West Coast go in the last 7 games of 2010?

 

[KardiniaPark]

So Adelaide wont make the finals again, I see what you did there D_one

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

D Flog, how did West Coast go in the last 7 games of 2010?

Think you mean 2009.

Won 4 of our last 5 to storm up into the middle of the ladder, then carried that form into 2011 and ... finished stone motherless last

 

[D_One]

D, the thread title is horribly wrong in this instance

Why?

Let me point out an example from a couple of years prior

Port Adelaide sacked Mark Williams and then appointed Matthew Primus as caretaker

In the last 7 games of 2010 Port went 5-2

In 2011, Port were 3-19

This comprehensively proves that late season form from the previous year means jack shit

I did say "usually".

Of course late season form has to be judged on a case by case basis.

In late 2010 Port went 5-2 but only had 90% and only beat crap teams like Hawthorn, West Coast, Melbourne, Richmond and the Camry Crows.

There are more examples where late season form carries through than anomalies.

For example, in 2004 and 2005 Hawthorn were shit barely warmed up to room temperature. In 2006 they weren't much better. They lost 12 of 13 games before winning their last 4 games. That late season form carried over to 2007.

Fremantle in 2009 lost nine games in a row before finishing the season with a 3-3 record. They started the next season by spanking the Camry Crows and being 8-2 by round 10.

Back in 2000, Port were bottom with one win at round 12, Port won 6 of their last 10 games and then dominated the next 4 years.

Late season form usually is a good guide.

 

[kaltmeibel]

I did say "usually".

Of course late season form has to be judged on a case by case basis.

In late 2010 Port went 5-2 but only had 90% and only beat crap teams like Hawthorn, West Coast, Melbourne, Richmond and the Camry Crows.

There are more examples where late season form carries through than anomalies.

For example, in 2004 and 2005 Hawthorn were shit barely warmed up to room temperature. In 2006 they weren't much better. They lost 12 of 13 games before winning their last 4 games. That late season form carried over to 2007.

Fremantle in 2009 lost nine games in a row before finishing the season with a 3-3 record. They started the next season by spanking the Camry Crows and being 8-2 by round 10.

Back in 2000, Port were bottom with one win at round 12, Port won 6 of their last 10 games and then dominated the next 4 years.

Late season form usually is a good guide.

Not always Collingwood had a super end to 2010 but played well below par round 1 2011.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Late season form usually is a good guide.

A good guide to what, exactly? The first ten rounds of the next season? The entire next season? The next four years? You used all three in your examples.

Is it safe to say "Late season form usually is a good guide until it stops being a good guide"?

 

[D_One]

A good guide to what, exactly? The first ten rounds of the next season? The entire next season? The next four years? You used all three in your examples.

Is it safe to say "Late season form usually is a good guide until it stops being a good guide"?

Depending on the age of the key players, it could be first half of the season, the entire season or the next four seasons.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Or nothing at all, as it was with Port in 2010, West Coast in 2010, West Coast in 2009, Fremantle in 2006...

 

[RonSon]

A good guide to what, exactly? The first ten rounds of the next season? The entire next season? The next four years? You used all three in your examples.

Is it safe to say "Late season form usually is a good guide until it stops being a good guide"?

I'd say late season form is a good guide if the aim of your post is to get touchy supporters from certain teams hot under the collar.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

I'd say late season form is a good guide if the aim of your post is to get touchy supporters from certain teams hot under the collar.

I've got no reason to be hot under the collar. Based on the OP my team will be in the grand final this year! Or for the next four years. Or we'll at least get off to a flying start this season.

I'm just dispassionately disproving the hypothesis. (Clearly I've been watching too much Big Bang Theory)

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Either way Port will be shit next year.

 

[D_One]

I've got no reason to be hot under the collar. Based on the OP my team will be in the grand final this year! Or for the next four years. Or we'll at least get off to a flying start this season.

I'm just dispassionately disproving the hypothesis. (Clearly I've been watching too much Big Bang Theory)

There's a fuzziness to it that's why the title has the word "usually". A bit like the uncertainty principle.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

I understand that, but 'usually' implies it happens at least more often than not.

I'm suggesting that's not the case.

 

[D_One]

I understand that, but 'usually' implies it happens at least more often than not.

I'm suggesting that's not the case.

For all sixteen clubs over a twenty or thirty year period?

Nah "usually" is the correct word.

 

[Jade's]

Over the news I have noticed that late season form is usually a good indicator of a team's early season form the following year.

Here is a premiership table of the last seven minor round games played by the 17 clubs.

7 North Melbourne 7 4 3 729 642 113.6
10 Richmond 7 3 4 639 714 89.5 12
Immediate analysis suggests that North's late season form shows that they could be a bit of a bolter this year. It also suggests that clubs that think they are on the rise such as Essendon, Richmond, Camry Crows and Melbourne showed very little late last year.

The biggest surprise is that it also suggests that Fremantle is going to be a big pile of steaming shit again next year.

One extra win shows that one side will be a bolter and the other showed very little???? Pretty long bow you are drawing there

 

[ploppy]

im pretty confident Port will win the flag this year so ive put $10 on them at 330 to 1 just in case. also 14 to 1 to make the 8 was to good to let go as well. i dont remember last year at all

 

[kaltmeibel]

im pretty confident Port will win the flag this year so ive put $10 on them at 330 to 1 just in case. also 14 to 1 to make the 8 was to good to let go as well. i dont remember last year at all

330/1 for the flag you got short changed.3300 maybe.

 

[Brissy Bomber]

Garbage thread. Effingdumb way too high. Bottom 4 club this year (and for the next 5).

 

[D_One]

One extra win shows that one side will be a bolter and the other showed very little???? Pretty long bow you are drawing there

Wins plus percentage tell us otherwise.

 

[Elite Crow]

Think you mean 2009.

Won 4 of our last 5 to storm up into the middle of the ladder, then carried that form into 2011 and ... finished stone motherless last

No I meant 2010, when you finished last only to rise in 2011.

Either way, its another example that D Flog is a Flog

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Great thread. Too bad freo had something like 20 players out injured. Yet they still didnt cop pastings to the margins of 165 or 137.

It also shows Adelaide achieved as many wins and a better % in the last 7 weeks of 2011 as Poort managed for an entire season.

 

[Jaeger]

We'll take it.

 

[Asgardian]

What's the deal with the whole Freo/Port hate?

A considerable amount of angst due to trading and not trading players over the years, plus the manic jealousy the dockers have when considering all things Port Adelaide.

Yes, today they will talk about members and bank balance, but ask yourselves, what is the single goal of any sporting club?

To win premierships, Freo have been in the AFL longer than us but have had zero success.

That gets right up their skirts.

 

[MrZregory]

A considerable amount of angst due to trading and not trading players over the years, plus the manic jealousy the dockers have when considering all things Port Adelaide.

Yes, today they will talk about members and bank balance, but ask yourselves, what is the single goal of any sporting club?

To win premierships, Freo have been in the AFL longer than us but have had zero success.

That gets right up their skirts.

Checkmate

 

[Lord Rod]

A considerable amount of angst due to trading and not trading players over the years, plus the manic jealousy the dockers have when considering all things Port Adelaide.

Yes, today they will talk about members and bank balance, but ask yourselves, what is the single goal of any sporting club?

To win premierships, Freo have been in the AFL longer than us but have had zero success.

That gets right up their skirts.

Manic jealousy of a club with no money, tiny fanbase made up of toothless ferals and no real future?

Don't flatter yourself princess..