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Le Tour
- Thread starter The Coach
- Start date
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blue gunslinger
Hall of Famer
was right up there working hard most of the way. Will leave it to the boys to tell you how far he is behind but it cannot be by much
Bonus...
- Thread starter
- #230
Alph - he is the real leader of the tour as Cancellara won't hold off Astana on Friday's HC mountain finish. HC stands for hors categorie which means 'beyond category' ie harder than Category 1, in other words unbelievably hard.
Friday will be a most interesting night as Astana won't really need to do anything except control the race (ie not let anyone get away) if that is all they want to do. They may do this if Armstrong is not feeling 100% but it is more than likely that they will use their team strength to try and go further in front of their real rivals or at the least soften them up.
Unless Armstrong can't match the other teams then his own team are not supposed to attack him/upstage him - there may be some argument that that does not include the team leader Contador but I do not even expect him to. He would be fairly confident that Astana can build on their lead and that he will inherit it from Armstrong after the Stage 18 individual TT. After which he can let loose anything he has in reserve on the other HC climb on the second last stage (20) which is the last real day of racing. There is of course risk involved with this strategy ie What if you hold back until the end and it turns out that that morning you have one of those 'no legs' days.
C23 - to see a bit of competition we can still hope that Andy Schleck can simply blow them away on one of the mountains but with his av TT ability, I fear he will have to do it twice. I nominate him over Cadel as his team is better than Cadel's and last year he looked more likely to do this than Cadel. Cadel however is the better TTer so my plan for Cadel is:
Stick like glue until Stage 15 then go all out to take some time knowing he has the rest day to recover. Stage 15's finish only gives him 9km of mountain finish to pull it off but to do it on any other day would require massive next day recovery on his part as I do not think his team could control Astana if he was hurting. With him recovered with the help of the rest day, he would still need his team to come into play for stages 16 onwards. I do not think he would be wise to leave it until 17 as not only is there no rest day to follow but 18 is the individual TT where he will need to match the Astana boys.
blue gunslinger
Hall of Famer
when you say Friday - Friday night/Sat morning for us?
Describe the stage to put me in perspective
Describe the stage to put me in perspective
This is the Friday stage he is talking about, the first mountain stage.
Stage 7: Barcelona > Andorre Arcalis (HM) 224km
blue gunslinger
Hall of Famer
wow - this is what I was after
The Aussies have had a dead set horrible time so far in the tour. Rogers crashed today and am still not sure whether he finished.
Fantastic finish though today, the god of thunder Hushovd won just ahead of Freire.
Denis Menchov lost another 1'02". With Gesink out and Ten Dam also going down today, he may aswell start an early holiday.
Fantastic finish though today, the god of thunder Hushovd won just ahead of Freire.
Denis Menchov lost another 1'02". With Gesink out and Ten Dam also going down today, he may aswell start an early holiday.
Rogers managed to finish just inside the cut off time. Will see whether he can come up for tomorrow's stage.
blue gunslinger
Hall of Famer
Very entertaining viewing last night. Real edge of the seat stuff
Looking fwd to tonight.
Looking fwd to tonight.
- Thread starter
- #237
Thank god it is Friday - you Westerners have a real advantage when it comes to Tour viewing
blue gunslinger
Hall of Famer
Actually I find once I finally get wifey off to bed I miss most of it but the ending is paydirt! Then it is cricket until dawn
Astana and the TTT (Stage 4) has ruined this TDF.
That is all i have to say.
That is all i have to say.
Why's that?
Caught the last 10 minutes of it last night. So wanted Cadel to breakaway from Lance but couldn't.
Lance is not a threat for the GC, he is not capable of riding away from Evans or anyone else going for GC.
Cadel has 1 chance, he needs to break away at the top of the 1st mountain tonight so astana have to chase using Levi and Kolden.
If those 2 break Armstrong without teamates to help him will break because he has been away for 4 years. Menchov, Schleck, Sastre, Vande Velda will sit on Contador's wheel and not work giving Cadel a chance to stay away.
Contador pisses me off, after watching the Olympic road race and seeing how easily he dropped off it's a fact and not speculation that he is a doper, there is no way a rider can crack that easily and then last night sprint away without even trying.
The TTT has really ruined this race, if it was a ITT cadel would be top 3 less then 20 seconds behind contador and you would back him to win then with Astana doing all the work but now its 3mins and almost impossible to make up.
- Thread starter
- #242
I cannot make any sense of your post Davis
Armstrong is obviously attempting to become the greatest sportsperson of all time in trying to do the impossible (3+ years away) and last night he did not have super legs and did not make a move. Cadel did try and sadly showed that even though he says he is feeling great and is all guts - he has never been able to ride away from the big boys. His chance will come down to a day where he is jumping out of his skin and can smash them - hopefully that was not yesterday
As for going for it on the first climb tonight - ARE YOU CRAZY
- he has no team support
- the first climb tonight is the start of the race
- he would have to then stay away for the remaining 150 km - I don't expect any 'marked' rider to be able to go over the top and hold them off for the next 60k downhill to the next climb, which is why none of the names will try it
I reckon if Cadel was silly enuf (he isn't silly) to go for it from the start tonight they would mark him with one of their team and if Cadel did not have much help, they would just let him dangle out there so that they could chew him up later
Uphill finishes like stages 15 and 20 and maybe ones with climbs within cooee of the finish such as 13,17,19 and maybe 16 - are Cadel's only hope if Contador has a bad day
ps Levi was pretty impressive last night too
Coverage is starting now everybody
Armstrong is obviously attempting to become the greatest sportsperson of all time in trying to do the impossible (3+ years away
) and last night he did not have super legs and did not make a move. Cadel did try and sadly showed that even though he says he is feeling great and is all guts - he has never been able to ride away from the big boys. His chance will come down to a day where he is jumping out of his skin and can smash them - hopefully that was not yesterdayAs for going for it on the first climb tonight - ARE YOU CRAZY
- he has no team support
- the first climb tonight is the start of the race
- he would have to then stay away for the remaining 150 km - I don't expect any 'marked' rider to be able to go over the top and hold them off for the next 60k downhill to the next climb, which is why none of the names will try it
I reckon if Cadel was silly enuf (he isn't silly) to go for it from the start tonight they would mark him with one of their team and if Cadel did not have much help, they would just let him dangle out there so that they could chew him up later
Uphill finishes like stages 15 and 20 and maybe ones with climbs within cooee of the finish such as 13,17,19 and maybe 16 - are Cadel's only hope if Contador has a bad day
ps Levi was pretty impressive last night too
Coverage is starting now everybody
blue gunslinger
Hall of Famer
Great weather
Strange ol tactics so far.
Strange ol tactics so far.
Five you just don't get it do you, the only way to beat a team is to break them down 1 by 1.
If contador is having a bad day Astana won't ride hard and they will just use their riders to shut down Cadel's attacks rather then set a high pace, the only way to wear down Contador's team is to attack and unless Schleck or Sastre grow some balls and do it only Cadel himself can.
Seriously name the last time Contador did any pace setting, Cadel gets drawn into doing it everyday because his team sucks but I have never seen Contador lead in my life outside the Olympics when he cracked within 10mins because he had to do some work for once.
You might rate Armstrong but I don't, if it was a TT rather then a TTT cadel would be in yellow and Armstrong would be 1-2mins behind, he showed in the giro he is nothing special without the best team in the tour supporting him.
Armstrong never got attacked when he felt weak because his team backed off and used their men to chase down attacks, when he was strong they used their energy to burn everyone else off and gained 3mins in TTT's every year.
Like it or not Contador has been told to bow down to Armstrong, they don't want the Armstrong legend ruined by a fellow teammate beating him proving once and for all without his team advantage he is nothing special.
If contador is having a bad day Astana won't ride hard and they will just use their riders to shut down Cadel's attacks rather then set a high pace, the only way to wear down Contador's team is to attack and unless Schleck or Sastre grow some balls and do it only Cadel himself can.
Seriously name the last time Contador did any pace setting, Cadel gets drawn into doing it everyday because his team sucks but I have never seen Contador lead in my life outside the Olympics when he cracked within 10mins because he had to do some work for once.
You might rate Armstrong but I don't, if it was a TT rather then a TTT cadel would be in yellow and Armstrong would be 1-2mins behind, he showed in the giro he is nothing special without the best team in the tour supporting him.
Armstrong never got attacked when he felt weak because his team backed off and used their men to chase down attacks, when he was strong they used their energy to burn everyone else off and gained 3mins in TTT's every year.
Like it or not Contador has been told to bow down to Armstrong, they don't want the Armstrong legend ruined by a fellow teammate beating him proving once and for all without his team advantage he is nothing special.
Did anyone else get disgusted with Cancellara? I liked this guy but when he told cadel to basically **** off and then Thor Hushovd do the same I was annoyed.
Sure the break away was never going to work with cadel in it but these 2 idiots both decended into the group knowing full and well cadel was in it and leading it alone and cadel has to do these things to make astana work.
Sure the break away was never going to work with cadel in it but these 2 idiots both decended into the group knowing full and well cadel was in it and leading it alone and cadel has to do these things to make astana work.
That was another desperate attack from Cadel again today. He is a machine and i don't think it took too much out of him but he isn't die wondering.
God Liggett is annoying...
- Thread starter
- #249
Yeah - the only thing I didn't get is that Cadel was stupid enuf to waste energy on this stage. We both know that Cadel needs minutes so why waste his energy on a stage with this type of run home. If you are in super form soften them up on the early climbs of a stage that you can actually get away on later and hold your advantage on
You seem to forget that if worse comes to worst, Astana will be happy to take victory with any of their riders with so many up in the GC all they have to do is have a passenger in any serious move - the first climb today was never one to worry about
Cadel is not superman - he needs a miracle. He would be much better looking for hit and run opportunities - he is not going to wear down the Astana TEAM. He has to hope opportunites arise for him to launch attacks after they have just reeled an attack in and may be hurting
Please tell us that your last sentence is referring to this year only
I agree Five, going so early wasn't the wisest move but you have to put yourself in his shoes. He needs 3 minutes, that isn't going to come from him attacking the climbers group because his acceleration isn't fantastic and Astana will wear him down. He has to force the issue somewhat to try and give himself a chance at a podium spot. I'm am sure if he was down by just a minute like Schleck he would wait but his situation is different desperate.
He doesn't have the climbing acceleration of Sastre who will be waiting for a situation like what you are saying. Evans will need to try and go with him because Carlos is smart and will pick the right time.
Evans is a desperate man, he has finish 2nd the past two years and would be frustrated with his team in the TTT you can understand what he has tried to do in the past two days. Not the smartest things to do but desperate times calls fro desperate measures. I don't think he would have exerted too much energy, down hill doesn't take much out of you and he was putting pressure on only a few km of that first climb.
He could have also sussing out what Astana might do when he did attack early, try and see if that is a way he can gain time later on. You saw Armstrong and Contador not worry enough to attack themselves so there may be an opening somewhere.
He doesn't have the climbing acceleration of Sastre who will be waiting for a situation like what you are saying. Evans will need to try and go with him because Carlos is smart and will pick the right time.
Evans is a desperate man, he has finish 2nd the past two years and would be frustrated with his team in the TTT you can understand what he has tried to do in the past two days. Not the smartest things to do but desperate times calls fro desperate measures. I don't think he would have exerted too much energy, down hill doesn't take much out of you and he was putting pressure on only a few km of that first climb.
He could have also sussing out what Astana might do when he did attack early, try and see if that is a way he can gain time later on. You saw Armstrong and Contador not worry enough to attack themselves so there may be an opening somewhere.
