Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

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asanque said:
Even if we accept all your figures as accurate, you yourself acknowledge that you have put in crazy hours to optimise your model over the summer and spent considerable time each week.

The respective football seasons last 1/2 a year in total.

Even betting the reasonable large sums that you do, you are only looking at ~80k max per year (admittedly tax free).

However, you have also noted that there are a number of you involved.

I struggle to see why you could not obtain a better financial outcome if you were all gainfully employed in the finance industry.

Its not as simple as saying increase the stakes as bookmakers will shut you down.

I'm amazed you can still get anything over $100 down at Luxbet which are one of the tightest bookies around.

Heck I move lines there with $50 bets.

Bookies will shut down successful punters and its only a matter of time.

Larger bets on average also make it increasingly difficult to open new accounts under different names.

So overall, its not impossible to make money from sportsbetting. However, my point is that it takes a lot of time and hard work and most would be able to achieve better utility from a job/business for the same hours spent.
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* Holding our current ATS win %, we're expecting a $250K roll going into Brownlow Medal. We then go into college football, NBL and A-League.

* Beating conventional financial markets is an impossibility (or near impossibility). I think this can only be achieved (and I highly doubt that) by institutions with personnel that have multiple PHD's and potentially billions of dollars. You can't compete with outfits that invest hundreds of millions investing into ultra-low latency connections to the market. I've talked about this in the past ad nauseum.


* We're not talking props here. Yeah $50 will move some peanut offering; ie:"Paul Wall over/under 20.5 points", not sides or totals.

* Who says we are not recruiting big squares with losing accounts and big limits ;). We get our legal eagle to write up a contract and we're in business.
 
brett128 said:
* Holding our current ATS win %, we're expecting a $250K roll going into Brownlow Medal. We then go into college football, NBL and A-League.

* Beating conventional financial markets is an impossibility (or near impossibility). I think this can only be achieved (and I highly doubt that) by institutions with personnel that have multiple PHD's and potentially billions of dollars. You can't compete with outfits that invest hundreds of millions investing into ultra-low latency connections to the market. I've talked about this in the past ad nauseum.


* We're not talking props here. Yeah $50 will move some peanut offering; ie:"Paul Wall over/under 20.5 points", not sides or totals.

* Who says we are not recruiting big squares with losing accounts and big limits ;). We get our legal eagle to write up a contract and we're in business.
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1. You are already moving the market at Luxbet with small bets.
If you bet on those markets, your mates can't before the line changes.
How can you seriously expect to continue to generate the same return without market liquidity?
Especially on totals where market liquidity is rubbish already.
Fat chance finding a bookie that will take $5k bets on totals markets on a consistent basis if you are winning. (Edit: 1k is easy to hide and spread around, the higher the amount bet, the harder it is to disguise)

2. I would have thought that 5 mathematical geniuses could easily each get a job paying in excess of $150k per annum. This would far outweigh any potential return the syndicate could get in totality. Especially as bookies aren't in the habit of losing large sums of money to professional punters.

3. I couldn't even get $100 on a Luxbet total without it changing this weekend. Even if you had multiple accounts, just one account putting a bet of any significance changes the line.

4. You would then need to pay a commission to said individual. Plus the bookmakers would notice the betting discrepancies pretty darn quickly.

Edit: I would also note that there have been some AFL matches this year where the line has moved quite significantly. Market forces in action.
 
asanque said:
1. You are already moving the market at Luxbet with small bets.
If you bet on those markets, your mates can't before the line changes.
How can you seriously expect to continue to generate the same return without market liquidity?
Especially on totals where market liquidity is rubbish already.
Fat chance finding a bookie that will take $5k bets on totals markets on a consistent basis if you are winning. (Edit: 1k is easy to hide and spread around, the higher the amount bet, the harder it is to disguise)

2. I would have thought that 5 mathematical geniuses could easily each get a job paying in excess of $150k per annum. This would far outweigh any potential return the syndicate could get in totality. Especially as bookies aren't in the habit of losing large sums of money to professional punters.

3. I couldn't even get $100 on a Luxbet total without it changing this weekend. Even if you had multiple accounts, just one account putting a bet of any significance changes the line.

4. You would then need to pay a commission to said individual. Plus the bookmakers would notice the betting discrepancies pretty darn quickly.
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* I don't agree, we have distributed up to $4k in action on a totals market pretty well now. That's not someone else's ex-square accounts either. Let's see how it long lasts.

* I hate the idea of working for anyone else. It gets under my skin pretty quickly. So do my associates. I don't give a f*** what some corporate fat cat offers me. I loathe them.

* Some (half-decent) 'big' squares are just begging to take over their action. We haven't started this yet, as we wanna see how long a fresh ID takes to degenerate across the books. As soon one square account closes up, you start to plough through others. I haven't even talked about simultaneously hitting at TAB terminals in cash either. Where there's a will, there's a way.
 

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brett128 said:
* I don't agree, we have distributed up to $4k in action on a totals market pretty well now. That's not someone else's ex-square accounts either. Let's see how it long lasts.

* I hate the idea of working for anyone else. It gets under my skin pretty quickly. So do my associates. I don't give a f*** what some corporate fat cat offers me. I loathe them.

* Some (half-decent) 'big' squares are just begging to take over their action. We haven't started this yet, as we wanna see how long a fresh ID takes to degenerate across the books. As soon one square account closes up, you start to plough through others. I haven't even talked about simultaneously hitting at TAB terminals in cash either. Where there's a will, there's a way.
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1. If your main success is lines, you will have more luck spreading significant bets as there is more liquidity than for totals. I'd be surprised if you could continue putting increasing bets on totals but that is subject to how successful you are with new accounts I guess.

2. That comes back to the utility value of money. If you enjoy what you do for less money, than that can also be an optimal outcome. It sort of depends what a reasonable target to live on is and that's a nice philosophical question.

3. TAB is probably your best option. Its amazing how tight some of the other corporates are.
I presume you will also have to be wary as to where the money comes from when depositing into new accounts. I can imagine that getting pretty annoying fast.
 
asanque said:
1. If your main success is lines, you will have more luck spreading significant bets as there is more liquidity than for totals. I'd be surprised if you could continue putting increasing bets on totals but that is subject to how successful you are with new accounts I guess.

2. That comes back to the utility value of money. If you enjoy what you do for less money, than that can also be an optimal outcome. It sort of depends what a reasonable target to live on is and that's a nice philosophical question.

3. TAB is probably your best option. Its amazing how tight some of the other corporates are.
I presume you will also have to be wary as to where the money comes from when depositing into new accounts. I can imagine that getting pretty annoying fast.
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* I totally agree.

* It's a problem I'm happy to have.


And peanut (or whatever identity you troll behind), guess what i'll do for you, you half-wit; I'll come back here in 4 months time and show you turnover you will only ever have wet dreams about.


Done for now. Later.
 
ThePeanutGallery said:
asanque, you are trying to reason with a guy who went broke betting kelly, saying it was the ONLY way to bet profitably.

Now he is back and has seen the light. I wouldn't waste the bandwidth.
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Whilst Brett's posted tips last time didn't pan out the way he hoped, we all get a run of bad luck at times.

The two key criticisms of his strategy was betting full Kelly and not giving sufficient weight to the latest trends by watching the games.

It appears he has rectified those two issues.

I still think he will run into issues with liquidity and trying to have his model succeed on too many sports, but I like seeing someone try and beat the bookies.
 
brett128 said:
* I totally agree.

* It's a problem I'm happy to have.


And peanut (or whatever identity you troll behind), guess what i'll do for you, you half-wit; I'll come back here in 4 months time and show you turnover you will only ever have wet dreams about.


Done for now. Later.
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I have wet dreams about something other than my ownself, unlike you by the looks.
 
asanque said:
Whilst Brett's posted tips last time didn't pan out the way he hoped, we all get a run of bad luck at times.

The two key criticisms of his strategy was betting full Kelly and not giving sufficient weight to the latest trends by watching the games.

It appears he has rectified those two issues.

I still think he will run into issues with liquidity and trying to have his model succeed on too many sports, but I like seeing someone try and beat the bookies.
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So do I.

His own.
 
anabac said:
Anyone else notice that in the image Brett posted, the hawks sydney line which was a win, seemed to be resulted as a loss?
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That's just how Lux do their accounting. You'll have a negative entry for the actual bet, then a positive for the payout. Looks legit to me.
 

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brett128 said:
http://postimg.org/image/y3l4g1uwf/

This is an image from one of my accounts. This is my Luxbet account. I'm starting to encounter resistance from them now. I usually dribble in $250 packets (however I randomize my bet sizing). It seems easier to not trip up their internal systems.

Notice the Kings play. Luxbet open at +9, I bet them for $250 with intention of dribbling packets, and then they immediately take the play off the board for 5 minutes, and re-open at +8.5 I dribble for more packets, and eventually build my position to about $1.3K. They then take the market OTB again for a few minutes, and then re-open at +8. At this point I shop the rest of my action elsewhere at +8.5

As I said before, I move lines in smaller markets. With S15 lines, opening lines are usually closing lines, I have not seen any evidence of sharp action. I seem to be the only one moving lines.
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I have forwarded it to an associate at Luxbet, doubt you will get on for more than $10 by the weekend. He will also forward the details on to the other corporates. Have a nice day.
 
asanque said:
3. TAB is probably your best option. Its amazing how tight some of the other corporates are.
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TAB's have limits too. You won't have trouble betting cash in low 4 figure amounts on things like metro fixed odds racing and AFL head to head but good luck with lines/totals and other lesser exotics. If they notice they are getting hammered on lines or totals through retail channels, which with the amount of data they collect they would very quickly, then they will just drop the limit to $201 or something like that on those bet types over the counter. That would effect barely anyone that bets over the counter, people that bet over a few hundred are almost exclusively racing punters, head to head punters, or the mug fave multi crew. Anything else would stick out like dogs balls to traders and they can set limits that would weed out the likes of brett128 and have barely any effect on the rest of their customer base. They reject $20 multis with totals in them, so no doubt they would look very closely at any spike in betting activity on that bet type.
 
this is the internet equivalent of me throwing a party, it being 3am and everyone still being at my house when i just want them to gtfo so i can sleep. brett playing the role of my wife's annoying friend who big notes at every opportunity but turns up with only a six pack of woolworths home brand beer
 
Lenny29 said:
this is the internet equivalent of me throwing a party, it being 3am and everyone still being at my house when i just want them to gtfo so i can sleep. brett playing the role of my wife's annoying friend who big notes at every opportunity but turns up with only a six pack of woolworths home brand beer
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Well go to bed and let your wife do the 'entertaining'. Her and her six-pack friend will keep us entertained.


(I assume KP is your wife)
 
Lenny29 said:
this is the internet equivalent of me throwing a party, it being 3am and everyone still being at my house when i just want them to gtfo so i can sleep. brett playing the role of my wife's annoying friend who big notes at every opportunity but turns up with only a six pack of woolworths home brand beer
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This is brilliant.

Brett can you post a picture of you? I'm really curious to put a face to the name?
 
KardiniaPark said:
I have forwarded it to an associate at Luxbet, doubt you will get on for more than $10 by the weekend. He will also forward the details on to the other corporates. Have a nice day.
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Ooh no! It's all over for me!

Geez you're going green with envy aren't you? Don't like other people succeeding where you have failed?

Funny story, I once applied at Sportsbet, post 2012 Brownlow Medal. I took $20K from them on props that night (netted $14K, was $-6K elsewhere). Despite the fact I told them to check my account in my resume, I received no restriction (I didn't get a call back for the role either). I probably took them for another $4k-$5k steam chasing before they finally slapped on automatic book wide restrictions.

So much for 'swift retribution' from the corporates. I don't understand all the hate. I'm just here to say YOU can achieve handsome returns from sports betting, and everyone here turns into green eyed monsters. With basic VCE level mathematics and a little creativity, you can start beating Australian sports.

As to liquidity, I said before, where there's a will, there's a way.
 
brett128 said:
* I hate the idea of working for anyone else. It gets under my skin pretty quickly. So do my associates. I don't give a f*** what some corporate fat cat offers me. I loathe them.
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brett128 said:
Funny story, I once applied at Sportsbet, post 2012 Brownlow Medal. I took $20K from them on props that night (netted $14K, was $-6K elsewhere). Despite the fact I told them to check my account in my resume, I received no restriction (I didn't get a call back for the role either).
Click to expand...
:confused:
 
brett128 said:
Ooh no! It's all over for me!

Geez you're going green with envy aren't you? Don't like other people succeeding where you have failed?

Funny story, I once applied at Sportsbet, post 2012 Brownlow Medal. I took $20K from them on props that night (netted $14K, was $-6K elsewhere). Despite the fact I told them to check my account in my resume, I received no restriction (I didn't get a call back for the role either). I probably took them for another $4k-$5k steam chasing before they finally slapped on automatic book wide restrictions.

So much for 'swift retribution' from the corporates. I don't understand all the hate. I'm just here to say YOU can achieve handsome returns from sports betting, and everyone here turns into green eyed monsters. With basic VCE level mathematics and a little creativity, you can start beating Australian sports.

As to liquidity, I said before, where there's a will, there's a way.
Click to expand...

Ohhhhhhh I get it now, you are marrying 75 yr old widows then pushing them down the stairs collecting the cash from their will? Brilliant, you really do have an edge.

younglove.jpg
 

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