Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

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brett128 said:
Ooh no! It's all over for me!

Geez you're going green with envy aren't you? Don't like other people succeeding where you have failed?

Funny story, I once applied at Sportsbet, post 2012 Brownlow Medal. I took $20K from them on props that night (netted $14K, was $-6K elsewhere). Despite the fact I told them to check my account in my resume, I received no restriction (I didn't get a call back for the role either). I probably took them for another $4k-$5k steam chasing before they finally slapped on automatic book wide restrictions.

So much for 'swift retribution' from the corporates. I don't understand all the hate. I'm just here to say YOU can achieve handsome returns from sports betting, and everyone here turns into green eyed monsters. With basic VCE level mathematics and a little creativity, you can start beating Australian sports.

As to liquidity, I said before, where there's a will, there's a way.
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You mean when you were posting on here, losing everything besides the shirt on your back, you were somehow smashing Sportsbet? Your timeline smells fishy.

When you tell a good tale, you need to remember all the details.

I doubt you, with the way you bet, would be that scarey to Sportsbet. Your account you thought was a good reference? I can see exactly why you didn't get a call back, and the reason you did not meet 'swift retribution' is clear to all of us who laughed, and continue to laugh, at your 'tales'.
 
ThePeanutGallery said:
You mean when you were posting on here, losing everything besides the shirt on your back, you were somehow smashing Sportsbet? Your timeline smells fishy.

When you tell a good tale, you need to remember all the details.

I doubt you, with the way you bet, would be that scarey to Sportsbet. Your account you thought was a good reference? I can see exactly why you didn't get a call back, and the reason you did not meet 'swift retribution' is clear to all of us who laughed, and continue to laugh, at your 'tales'.
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I posted all my Brownlow probabilities on this forum. I priced every every prop market I could find at every book, and posted those probabilities on here for everyone to see. Prop winnings were not counted towards my BR.

And yes, Sportsbet did find my action "scarey" you illiterate monkey. It finds anyone with half a brain as threatening. Many people here can attest to treatment at their hands.
 

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brett128 said:
I posted all my Brownlow probabilities on this forum. I priced every every prop market I could find at every book, and posted those probabilities on here for everyone to see. Prop winnings were not counted towards my BR.

And yes, Sportsbet did find my action "scarey" you illiterate monkey. It finds anyone with half a brain as threatening. Many people here can attest to treatment at their hands.
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I think it is you who is the illiterate monkey, as you said you took them for 4-5k steam chasing, which is what I was referring to.

You lost 86% of your bank, yet you 'won' 4-5k and you think they are scared? Your boasting doesn't match up with your posted record.

Half a brain is what you must have, now we are getting some truth from you on your return. :thumbsu:
 
ThePeanutGallery said:
I think it is you who is the illiterate monkey, as you said you took them for 4-5k steam chasing, which is what I was referring to.

You lost 86% of your bank, yet you 'won' 4-5k and you think they are scared? Your boasting doesn't match up with your posted record.

Half a brain is what you must have, now we are getting some truth from you on your return. :thumbsu:
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Dude for you, I will post another screen shot in a few months. It will contain more turnover than you will see in your lifetime. I will start calling out prices/lines on main markets, and then moving them in front of your eyes.

Why do I bother. I've never met more ignorance in one place at one time. And yet, many of you will still log in to your book this weekend, and lose your weekly $100 betting allowance, and then think to yourself as to why you were so unlucky. Rather than picking up a book on programming or statistics and improving yourself, you will keep your head in the sand and continue to dribble your disposable income away for the rest of your life. It's sick.

I'm telling you with hard work and a little ability to start off with you can make it work (as I/we are working so hard to do right now), you try and shoot me down. One thing I've noticed about this board is how it exudes severe nihilist tendencies. Everyone here is on a troll fest, putting down everyone else to compensate for their own shortcomings in life. It's probably the worst betting forum I've come across.

OK. I'll leave you guys to it. Good luck on your 5 leg multi this weekend. And don't forget to include a big dog to lock in some awesome payouts!
 
brett128 said:
Dude for you, I will post another screen shot in a few months. It will contain more turnover than you will see in your lifetime. I will start calling out prices/lines on main markets, and then moving them in front of your eyes.

Why do I bother. I've never met more ignorance in one place at one time. And yet, many of you will still log in to your book this weekend, and lose your weekly $100 betting allowance, and then think to yourself as to why you were so unlucky. Rather than picking up a book on programming or statistics and improving yourself, you will keep your head in the sand and continue to dribble your disposable income away for the rest of your life. It's sick.

I'm telling you with hard work and a little ability to start off with you can make it work (as I/we are working so hard to do right now), you try and shoot me down. One thing I've noticed about this board is how it exudes severe nihilist tendencies. Everyone here is on a troll fest, putting down everyone else to compensate for their own shortcomings in life. It's probably the worst betting forum I've come across.

OK. I'll leave you guys to it. Good luck on your 5 leg multi this weekend. And don't forget to include a big dog to lock in some awesome payouts!
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If that isn't the most hypocritical post on any forum on any website in the entire world wide web, I will give up.

You came here months ago, telling us the exact same dribble.

You lost.

You lost alot. Right in front of our eyes.

And you wonder why, when you come back boasting, anyone tries to shoot you down? I engaged with you because I know you were a silly person, but I didn't realise until that last post that you were the one who is the troll.
 
brett128 said:
With basic VCE level mathematics and a little creativity, you can start beating Australian sports.
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Or we can continue, and you can start.
 
Brett, you talk about moving lines more than you do about winning the actual bet. All moving a line means is you bet a lot of money - big ****ing whoop.

Also, I'm not sure why you assume we're all losing punters. The losers stop posting, so anyone who's been around for a while is clearly doing OK.

Anyway, it seems like you've put the work in and put some solid money behind your models and they are paying. You may be a tool but I don't mind seeing hard work rewarded.

Finally, it's interesting that the bets in your screenshot (the AFL ones anyway) were the exact same ones my model spat out last week - and that took me an afternoon. I don't think gambling is quite as hard as you make it out to be.
 
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brett128 said:
I/we are pretty much behind line moves in smaller markets (totals on S15, NRL and AFL). I'm also starting to influence main lines, especially in S15.
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brett128 said:
As I said before, I move lines in smaller markets. With S15 lines, opening lines are usually closing lines, I have not seen any evidence of sharp action. I seem to be the only one moving lines.
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brett128 said:
Chances are when you see an under/over line consistently move in this country, it's us.
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I think these quotes show why Brett might not be cut out for this. It seems he cares more about ego/external validation than actually winning money. Moving lines is not a good thing.

Brett, simple questions:
1. When did you start sportsbetting?
2. Since then, how much money have you won?
3. What has been your average weekly hours worked on sportsbetting?
4. Same questions as 2 and 3, except over the past 12 months?
5. How much do you expect to win over the next 12 months?
 

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brett128 said:
You absolutely have no idea what you are talking about.
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Counting only the early week sharp action, 8 out of 9 lines moved in the wrong direction last weekend.

Overall for the year by my reckoning, 66 lines moved early, and 34 of those moved in the winning direction, for a 55.15% hit rate.

From you demiurgic mind, please descend upon us a statement to summarily dismiss this.
 
Spads said:
Counting only the early week sharp action, 8 out of 9 lines moved in the wrong direction last weekend.

Overall for the year by my reckoning, 66 lines moved early, and 34 of those moved in the winning direction, for a 55.15% hit rate.

From you demiurgic mind, please descend upon us a statement to summarily dismiss this.
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To help supplement (or really supplant in your case) your theoretical understanding of beating the closing line:




Please stop quoting pitiful sample sizes also.

I have looked at the efficiency of AFL, NRL and S15 lines at various time frames prior to game start, these markets subscribe to the notion of inexorably moving to the lowest MAE against MOV/total points prior to game start.
 
If beating the closing line is the be all and end all of gambling you must assume that markets are efficient.

It's gambling you clown - of course they aren't.

I don't know why you concern yourself with all this high brow crap Brett. All that matters is winning more than you lose, which believe it or not, many of us are doing and have been doing for a long time. It sounds like you may have figured out how to do it too, so why don't you stop bragging about being the big dick player in the Aussie gambling market and go count your money.
 
Why do you want to keep your head stuck up your own ass when I'm explaining something to you that should help improve your modelling/handicapping?

d3ft said:
If beating the closing line is the be all and end all of gambling you must assume that markets are efficient.

It's gambling you clown - of course they aren't.
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I'm not addressing the overall efficiency of any given market (which varies dramatically), i'm saying that opening numbers are softer than closing numbers. And that is a fact in every market I've read about or looked at myself.

You take numbers that beat closing numbers, and you will inevitably make money, simple as that.

Over a 2 month period I made around 500 NCABB steam plays at Australian books, which ended up with me netting about $15K before I restricted on this market at all Aussie books that offered it. I beat the closing line by an average of 1 point to achieve 58% ATS.

And guess what, when you take a look at an NCABB push chart, the average value of a full point move is worth about 8% in terms of ATS win %! So we end up with a theoretical win % of 58%, and my actual results reflected that exactly.


I don't know why you concern yourself with all this high brow crap Brett.
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LOL! 'High brow crap'!?? Are you f****** serious? The adept application of these concepts form the fundamentals of finding advantage in sports markets.

All that matters is winning more than you lose
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Like many others in this game, you sound like you're much more results orientated than you should be.

Most people have a short sighted view of focusing on results rather than expending all efforts on mastering the process.
 
brett128 said:
Everyone here is on a troll fest, putting down everyone else to compensate for their own shortcomings in life.

I've never met more ignorance in one place at one time.

It's probably the worst betting forum I've come across.
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And yet, you're back.

Once again, welcome back Bert. Glad you could join us.
 
brett128 said:
I am smarter than you
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Dude, until we get the same sort of pro action that the US has, beating a closing line here doesn't mean all that much.

And if you're moving the lines all by yourself aren't you going to be, by definition, beating them?
 
Lenny29 said:
i moved a tattsbet line this week from $1.90 to $1.85. i also moved a pinny line from $2.02 to $2

only one of the bets won, but i don't care because i am all powerful and moved a line
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That happens automatically if you are talking AFL football at Pinnacle.

A max bet of $1.3K (well max just before the game, where they open limits to $2.6K) will move the price about 6c at the spread. A double pop at $2.6K will move the spread a full point.

The point is not whether you move the price/line just after you bet (which you always will if you're betting more than $200-$300 on a small market like the AFL at Pinny), but whether that price/line advantage was sustained and so the market didn't buy back against you before game start.
 
Brettels, you seem to be confusing the following:
1. Your point - that beating the closing line is correlated with winning
2. My point - that moving lines is not a good thing

Both points are true, but you have incorrectly suggested that they are mutually exclusive.

Assume you think there is substantial edge on a certain line and you would be happy to bet x (or in your case, maybe 0.1x).

Situation A - you can get down x
Situation B - the line moves after betting <x.

Which situation is more profitable?
 

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