My 2014 World Cup Betting Journey

Remove this Banner Ad

danielgb123

danielgb123

Team Captain
Apr 17, 2009
493
64
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Manchester United
Hey guys,

Thought I'd make a quick post to see how long a $15 bankroll will last me over the 2014 WC, plus I'm bored.

Why $15? I need to buy a couple of car parts tomorrow, and it's what I currently have on my card - I'd of transferred $100 to start my bank roll but I'm not too keen on losing after a crappy AFL season; so let's test out my early predictions with this thread.

Anyways, let's get going:

Multi: Spain WIN, Chile WIN, Mexico DRAW @ $8.60 - $3 bet

Multi: Spain WIN, Chile WIN @ $2.77 - $4 bet

Straight Bet: Chile WIN @ $1.50 - $7 bet

Straight Bet: Chile 3-1 WIN @ $13 - $0.50 bet

Straight Bet: Chile 4-1 WIN @ $26 - $0.50 bet

Going to head off to bed now, hopefully I wake up to some money in my account.
 
Interesting start, I of course missed out on the obvious win of the Brazil game; here's my review on the 3 above:

- Story of the night is definitely Holland, I was expecting this match to be an unders, and go either way - however, Holland have shown that they really do still have the quality of four years ago. Spain on the other hand, they loss to the Swiss their first game four years ago and went on to win it - it may be a different story this time, though. Albeit, before I headed off to bed I thought Holland were way over at $5, and I thought they could probably sneak a cheeky win away - I'd of backed Spain 8/10 though.

- In terms of the Mexico game, I expected it to be an unders due to the humidity and lack of scoring power in both teams, that was probably a more welcoming bet than the DRAW, but no harm done there considering it was multi'd up with Spain.

- Chile, I think this was the play of the round, and ridiculous at $1.50. If I had bigger cohonis, I'd of dropped $1k on them at $1.50 since I thought they were virtually a sure bet - I don't so I didn't haha. Also guessed the correct score via a bet, and a competition on Facebook - so perhaps I'll win something from that too!

Results:
Multi: Spain WIN, Chile WIN, Mexico DRAW @ $8.60 - $3 bet
Multi: Spain WIN, Chile WIN @ $2.77 - $4 bet
Straight Bet: Chile WIN @ $1.50 - $7 bet
Straight Bet: Chile 3-1 WIN @ $13 - $0.50 bet
Straight Bet: Chile 4-1 WIN @ $26 - $0.50 bet

Bankroll:
Before: $15
After: $17 +$2
 
Got some study to catch up on today, so I'll get in early:

Multi: England DRAW, Columbia WIN @ $5.73 - $3.50 bet

Multi: Columbia WIN, Uruguay WIN, Italy WIN, Ivory Coast WIN @ $20.42 - $2 bet

Straight Bet: England CORRECT SCORE 0-0 @ $6 - $1.50 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast/Japan BTTS @ $1.91 - $4 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast/Japan Over 2.5 goals @ $2.33 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Uruguay/Costa Rica Over 2.5 goals @ $2.12 - $3 bet
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Straight Bet: Half Time Score Japan 1-0 - Full Time Score Japan 3-2 @ $190 - $0.36 bet
Straight Bet: Ivory Coast/Japan Over 2.5 goals @ $1.98 - $6 bet
 
Results:
Multi: England DRAW, Columbia WIN @ $5.73 - $3.50 bet

Multi: Columbia WIN, Uruguay WIN, Italy WIN, Ivory Coast WIN @ $20.42 - $2 bet

Straight Bet: England CORRECT SCORE 0-0 @ $6 - $1.50 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast/Japan BTTS @ $1.91 - $4 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast/Japan Over 2.5 goals @ $2.33 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Uruguay/Costa Rica Over 2.5 goals @ $2.12 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast/Japan Over 2.5 goals @ $1.98 - $6 bet

Straight Bet: Half Time Score Japan 1-0 - Full Time Score Japan 3-2 @ $190 - $0.36 bet

Bankroll:
Before: $17
After: $26.51 +$9.51

Thought the Uruguay game was pretty much set in stone, bookies would have made some decent bank from that upset.
Other than that, didn't watch the Italy game, but from what I hear they had a really solid opening campaign.
Japan were very good early on, and the strength of Ivory Coast was just a little too much.

Obviously not banking thus far, but doing well in the early parts whilst I get my 'eye in'. Two exams in the next three days, then I'm basically free to study these games more in-depth and drop some heavier coin into the account.
 
Last edited:
RobbyRoy said:
Yeah not a bad start at all. Uruguay cost me a fair bit, going to be hurting from that for a while.
Click to expand...
Just happy I didn't go heavy on them.

Saw a few people went Uruguay to win either half, as well as over 2.5 goals for the game - would have been the safer route. Not a lot of money on the line, so not too fussed, but if a couple of minor things had of gone my way would be looking at $60+ now.
 
alex mcanulty said:
im liking the thread chief
I got hurt by Uruguay and japan

keep up the good work
Click to expand...
Thanks bud.

Will hopefully be able to post some in-depth analysis once I actually get to watch a few of these games when exams are over.

Tonight's bets will be up soon.
 
Multi: France -1, Argentina -1, Switzerland WIN @ $8.98 - $2 FREE bet
Multi: Drmic Anytime Goal Scorer, Argentina WIN, France WIN @ $5.61 - $2 FREE bet
 
Argh, this was a tough one. I had Switzerland right down to the last minute, but I feel that the teams that can better adapt to this climate will shine over class; so I've gone with Ecuador.

Straight Bet: Anytime Goalscorer J Drmic @ 2.63 - $3.50 bet

Straight Bet: BTTS and Ecuador WIN @ $6.25 - $2.51 bet

Straight Bet: Ecuador Draw No bet @ $2.10 - $5.50 bet

A loss all round will bring me back to starting balance, however, the multis I placed above *should* save me.

Ideal Situation - Drmic Scores, Ecuador score and WIN returns ~$36.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Multi: Drmic Anytime Goal Scorer, Argentina WIN, France WIN @ $5.61 - $2 FREE bet

Straight Bet: Anytime Goalscorer J Drmic @ 2.63 - $3.50 bet

Straight Bet: BTTS and Ecuador WIN @ $6.25 - $2.51 bet

Straight Bet: Ecuador Draw No bet @ $2.10 - $5.50 bet

Before: $26.51
After: $15 -$11.51

Wow - Ecuador really deserved something from this game. Drmic played terribly, so that wiped out a straight and multi bet. Have one multi still active for an amount that will save my loss. Really kicking myself for not taking Switzerland (I literally had them on my bet card for the balance of the account till 3 minutes before kick off); and I should have taken the safer option in over 2.5 goals or BTTS SU - greedy -.-
 
Multi: Argentina WIN, France WIN $1.76 - $15 bet
Multi: France -1, Argentina -1, Switzerland WIN @ $8.98 - $2 FREE bet

Denied of a successful multi again! Argentina weren't convincing, but they should have held on to the 2-0 win; at least France didn't let me down.

Before: $15
After: $26.52 +$11.52

With a bit of luck things could be very different - an Ecuador win and Argentina holding on would have seen $60+
 
I guess the positive you can take out the Switzerland game is you're thought process wasn't entirely off. You expected them to win but made a last second decision to switch based on good logic.

Very interesting to follow you anyway.
 
danielgb123 said:
Multi: Argentina WIN, France WIN $1.76 - $15 bet
Multi: France -1, Argentina -1, Switzerland WIN @ $8.98 - $2 FREE bet

Denied of a successful multi again! Argentina weren't convincing, but they should have held on to the 2-0 win; at least France didn't let me down.

Before: $15
After: $26.52 +$11.52

With a bit of luck things could be very different - an Ecuador win and Argentina holding on would have seen $60+
Click to expand...


Hey mate - why don't you get half back for the second multi - given Argetina -1 would be a draw wouldn't it?
 
alex mcanulty said:
Haha I went all in with the france and argentina bet to
Great minds must think alike haha
Click to expand...
Haha, they must!

Peeved that my -1 multi didn't come off, if only Argentina hadn't conceded a goal in the last few minutes!
Been the way of the tournament for me though it seems.

RobbyRoy said:
I guess the positive you can take out the Switzerland game is you're thought process wasn't entirely off. You expected them to win but made a last second decision to switch based on good logic.

Very interesting to follow you anyway.
Click to expand...
Would have been an entirely different story if I went the BTTS and Swiss WIN like I intended, ah well.

Should find some luck shortly.

iluvparis said:
Hey mate - why don't you get half back for the second multi - given Argetina -1 would be a draw wouldn't it?
Click to expand...
Nah mate, soccer works a little differently to footy. A -1 Argentina means they need to win by more than one goal, eg 2+
 
Sorry for the lack of bets people, didn't sleep till 5am last night and I passed out earlier tonight.

In regards to the bests I would have placed, but didn't:
- Would have gone Germany or Draw
- Would have gone Nigeria WIN

So maybe best I laid off on that Nigeria game.

USA v Ghana was a tricky one, I placed Ghana as favourites initially due to individual class, but USA is a good whole team working unit. I think this game will stay unders, and I place USA as the slightly better side (despite past results)

Straight Bet: USA +1 Asian Handicap @ $1.53 - $26.52 bet

A risky one at such low return - but a USA WIN or DRAW = Money.
Ghana win by one goal = refund
Ghana win by two goals = loss

Horrible weather conditions, this should stay under 2.5
Initial thought was take BTTS and Ghana WIN with a USA or Draw cover bet, but I think the above was safer.
 
Last edited:
Second time I've had a chance to sit down and watch a match.

Ghana First Half
- They're a class above the USA, went down 1-0 due to some sloppy defending and great play by Dempsey. Plenty of positive forward movement, particularly dangerous coming from the wings, the final cross into the box and the final shot at goal is what has let them down. Definitely looked the better side, and their defence was decently strong.

USA First Half
- Went up 1-0 within a minute, but besides that were outplayed. They do look very strong on the counter against a Ghanian defence which pushes forward hard and quickly. Two points, the US crowd has been fabulous, lots of activity behind them. Howard has been rock-solid in goal. USA very sloppy moving the ball in some cases, over-using and need to stick to fundamentals.

From Here:
I think we'll see more goals, it's just a matter of who takes the hold early on in the second half. Both sides could perhaps have another goal to their name; just sloppy finishing on both parts. Essien should come on second half, that's when things will get interesting.

Currently, in a safe position:
Ghana goal = win bet
Ghana goal x2 = refund bet
Ghana goal x 3 = lose bet
USA win = win bet

Not over just yet, Ghana could quite easily take this game away from the US as Ivory Coast did to Japan yesterday.
 
Great to be on the other end of a close loss this time. Unfortunately I didn't have the balls to back USA straight (or in the overs); I'll thank Ecuador for ruining that confidence haha. Couple of things; Ghana threw everything at the US defence, and they stood tall - Ghana could have clenched this win quite easily; so I felt a little more confident with the one goal head start.

Straight Bet: USA +1 Asian Handicap @ $1.53 - $26.52 bet

Before: $26.52
After: $40.58 +$14.06
 
RobbyRoy said:
Very nicely done. Why would you have got a refund if Ghana only won by 1 goal?
Click to expand...
Asian +1 Handicap means that the team you place the bet on has a 1-0 advantage.

Therefore:
+1 USA basically translates to:
USA (1) | Ghana 0

Therefore:
If Ghana score:
USA (1) | Ghana 1

At which point the bet is tied; and you receive a refund.
It's a good (granted, low yielding) bet if you think the underdog may cause a surprise upset and that they will only lose by 1 goal if they do lose.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

My 2014 World Cup Betting Journey

Similar threads

H
HTP Purton Bets
Replies
11
Views
1K
HTPunter
H

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top