My 2014 World Cup Betting Journey

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For those following along - I see some pretty solid value in tonight's games - my bets will be up later tonight - hopefully we start setting up for some higher margins moving into the second round!
 
Straight Bet: Algeria +2 Asian Handicap @ $1.72 - $29.08 bet

Straight Bet: Belgium -2 Asian Handicap @ $3.5 - $11.50 bet

Let me explain:
Algeria win by 1+ goals = WIN bet 1 = $50 return
Algeria draw = WIN bet 1 = $50 return
Algeria lose by 1 goal = WIN bet 1 = $50 return
Algeria lose by 2 goals = Refund bet 1 & 2 = $40.25 return
Algeria lose by 3+ goals = WIN bet 2 = $40.25 return

Rationale?
I spent 2 hours (I'm not kidding) analysing this game; and as soon as I saw Belgium as a clear favourite, I swayed back towards Algeria. I did intend to drop the entire balance on Algeria +2, since I think this will be a small win for Belgium. Belgium should easily finish top in their group, and may cruise to a few wins conserving energy. What worries me, is if they try to dominate teams and win by 3+ goals - hence my bet.

With this bet, I stand to remain at $40.25 or win $10 on my total. Not worth the 2 hours of stressing to find a winner, but at least I don't have to worry now.

FYI, for anyone that thinks Algeria is a chance to win, draw or lose narrowly - this is a great bet that offers no risk and a good return if you have a large balance to play with.
 
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Algeria 1-0 up! I don't think they will hold the lead; but this puts me in an excellent position. The great thing about handicap bets is the security they offer - whilst I could have tipped a straight win for Belgium, or a -1 for Belgium; this would mean that if they slipped up I'd lose out.

FYI; if I had of placed an entire balance account on Belgium WIN @ $1.33 = ~ $53; so not much different to the $50 I win if this comes off.

The bets I made offer much more security, and whilst it doesn't have the flash of a $9 WIN bet on Germany; or the straight +2 bet I was planning on making; it takes a lot of pressure off now.

From here:
+2 advantage basically means:
Belgium 0 | Algeria 1 (3)

To lose; Belgium need to score 4 unanswered goals
To draw; Belgium need to score 3 unanswered goals
If Algeria can keep the margin to anything less than that I win
 
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danielgb123 said:
Algeria 1-0 up! I don't think they will hold the lead; but this puts me in an excellent position. The great thing about handicap bets is the security they offer - whilst I could have tipped a straight win for Belgium, or a -1 for Belgium; this would mean that if they slipped up I'd lose out.

FYI; if I had of placed an entire balance account on Belgium WIN @ $1.33 = ~ $53; so not much different to the $50 I win if this comes off.

The bets I made offer much more security, and whilst it doesn't have the flash of a $9 WIN bet on Germany; or the straight +2 bet I was planning on making; it takes a lot of pressure off now.

From here:
+2 advantage basically means:
Belgium 0 | Algeria 1 (3)

To lose; Belgium need to score 4 unanswered goals
To draw; Belgium need to score 3 unanswered goals
If Algeria can keep the margin to anything less than that I win
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Not bad mate. A Belgium loss is going to put a massive hole in my winnings. :(

Always knew there was something shifty about the $1.33 odds. Just lured me in.
 
Aed0s said:
Not bad mate. A Belgium loss is going to put a massive hole in my winnings. :(

Always knew there was something shifty about the $1.33 odds. Just lured me in.
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You and so many other people, bud.

I tend to over-analyse; but my thoughts
- Thought $1.33 odds were WAY too short, hence seeking out extra value
- Was 90% confident in the +2 Algeria, but people's predictions of 3-0; and 4-0 scared me off a little
- Tried to find more absolute value; found it with this bet - I mean, if I had $4k to play with; I would have either won $400, or lost roughly $5 or so.
- I know quite a few big betting pages dropped their entire amounts on Belgium to win this; I just thought it was too risking thinking of the Uruguay game
 
Argh, did see Fellain's name in Belgium's list and think about dropping a little on him to score.

Still have 1 goal up my sleeve here, 2 goals will see a refund.
 
Straight Bet: Algeria +2 Asian Handicap @ $1.72 - $29.08 bet

Straight Bet: Belgium -2 Asian Handicap @ $3.5 - $11.50 bet

Before: $40.58
After: $50.02 +$9.44
 
danielgb123 said:
Straight Bet: Algeria +2 Asian Handicap @ $1.72 - $29.08 bet

Straight Bet: Belgium -2 Asian Handicap @ $3.5 - $11.50 bet

Before: $40.58
After: $50.02 +$9.44
Click to expand...
Not bad. I'll take a win or a profit any day of the week. :)

I have a lot riding on this Brazil vs Mexico game though. Hoping Brazil gets up for the win but the odds have gone in Mexico's favour, from around $1.30 to $1.36 on bet365. When I think about it, that Algeria +2 is a really good bet, I think I simply overrated Belgium and underestimated Algeria.
 
Aed0s said:
Not bad. I'll take a win or a profit any day of the week. :)

I have a lot riding on this Brazil vs Mexico game though. Hoping Brazil gets up for the win but the odds have gone in Mexico's favour, from around $1.30 to $1.36 on bet365. When I think about it, that Algeria +2 is a really good bet, I think I simply overrated Belgium and underestimated Algeria.
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Haha, it's slow going but I'm building it up - goal is $1000 to be honest.

Algeria's defence is fairly strong, that's why I backed them in for a low scoring match. Belgium has all the talent in the world, but if it doesn't work (as you saw in the first half) it's all but useless - still bummed I didn't back Fellaini.

Still having a think about the Brazil game, Mexico is a bit of a bogey team for them - so could go either way.

I like dos Santos to score, I think my bet will more than likely be BTTS or over 2.5 goals.
 
Time for some risk

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.70 - $40 bet

Straight Bet: BTTS and Brazil WIN @ $3.12 - $10.02 bet
 

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Argh, perhaps should have taken the +2 Mexico and gone safer.

Plenty of chances just no goals yet!

Slow and steady was working just fine - then greed came along -.-
 
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Straight Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.70 - $40 bet

Straight Bet: BTTS and Brazil WIN @ $3.12 - $10.02 bet

Before: $50.02
After: $0 -$50.02

Stupid; greedy bets. Should have gone +2 and not bought into the Brazil hype - gutted.
 
RobbyRoy said:
Ouch. Mexico costing everyone big time it seems.
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Tell me about it - my fault for going after a Brazil win hard without my usual cover bets.

alex mcanulty said:
does this mean your not betting on the cup anymore
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Nope, still see plenty of value - I'll be back soon enough with a new $25 to $1000 challenge.

Shame I was dead tired and fell asleep, I would have backed Chille SU.
 
danielgb123 said:
Straight Bet: Croatia WIN @ $1.67 - $20 bet

Straight Bet: BTTS and Croatia WIN @ $3.60 - $5 bet
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Argh, was going to drop the last bet on Mandzukic as an anytime goalscorer at $2.50, or Croatia at -1.

Regardless, happy to have another win even if it was small.

Straight Bet: Croatia WIN @ $1.67 - $20 bet

Straight Bet: BTTS and Croatia WIN @ $3.60 - $5 bet

Before: $25.00
After: $33.40 +$8.40
 
Heading off to bed now, so I'll post my bets for tonight.

Also worth adding, I added a little more to my betting balance, so starting balance: $50.40

Here we go:
Straight Bet: Ivory Coast WIN @ $3.75 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 goals Ivory Coast/Columbia @ $1.95 - $6 bet

Straight Bet: England WIN @ $2 - $9 bet

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 Goals England/Uruguay @ $1.74 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Japan WIN @ $2.25 - $9 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast (0.0 & +0.5) @ $2.09 - $9 bet

Straight Bet: Japan (0.0 & -0.5) @ $1.91 - $6 bet

Straight Bet: England (0.0 & -0.5)@ $1.69 - $5.40 bet

Reasons:
I think perhaps the riskiest game is Ivory Coast/Columbia - both have some stars, both came off good wins. Ivory Coast were very poor against Japan in the first half, but the moment Drogba stepped foot onto the field; they were a different side and played as a team. I didn't watch the Columbia game, but they played well against a very poor Greek team who have a whole host of counter attack issues. Columbia has elite strikers and will pose a big threat to IC. I think we should see plenty of goals and some great football. Toure will need to step up, and this game being make or break, he has to now - was very poor last game.

In regards to Japan - Honda, Honda, Honda. The kid is crazy and should have another incredible performance up his sleeve. Japan like to shoot outside the box, which is a disadvantage to Greece as they defend inside the box well but not so much outside. I think this is the safest bet of tonight, a win to Japan.

Uruguay messed up a lot of people's bets the first round, and the shock of Suarez not appearing is an obvious cue to his injury/fitness concerns. Suarez is likely to make a return tonight, but I don't think he will impact as much as people are leading on - his form towards the end of the season was poor. Rooney should be switched to his more creative position during this game, and don't be surprised if he scores a couple and assists to prove the critics wrong.

I'm diversifying a bit tonight instead of the usually all or nothing bets; let's see how tonight goes. Good luck everyone!
 
Straight Bet: Ivory Coast WIN @ $3.75 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 goals Ivory Coast/Columbia @ $1.95 - $6 bet

Straight Bet: England WIN @ $2 - $9 bet

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 Goals England/Uruguay @ $1.74 - $3 bet

Straight Bet: Ivory Coast (0.0 & +0.5) @ $2.09 - $9 bet

Straight Bet: England (0.0 & -0.5)@ $1.69 - $5.40 bet

What can I say? Am I allowed to swear on here?
So Suarez DID come on, and Suarez DID have a massive impact.. damn.
Rooney silenced the critics and scored his first WC goal.

So, if I just had of managed to pick the winner (you'd think you'd pick the winner in ONE of these matches); the balance would be at $70 now. Instead, i await the Japan game and hope they turn it on to get close to breaking even.

Damn.. the past few days have sucked.
 
Fell asleep early last night so no bets on the last two games, I'd of gone France and Italy, so probably around breakeven territory.

Straight Bet: Ecuador WIN @ $1.61 - $10 bet

Straight Bet: Ecuador -1 @ $2.63 - $5 bet

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.74 - $4.92 bet
 
Straight Bet: Ecuador WIN @ $1.61 - $10 bet

Straight Bet: Ecuador -1 @ $2.63 - $5 bet

Straight Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ $1.74 - $4.92 bet

Before: $19.92
After: $24.66 + $4.74

Well that win would have felt a lot better if the -1 got up. Hondurus played better than expected, but Ecuador just a little too strong in the end. Very unlucky not to get the -1; probably should have been a penalty and the disallowed goal could arguably have been one. That being said, Hondurus could have had a couple more too if luck went their way.
 
Straight Bet: Belgium WIN @ $2.20 - $8.66 bet

Straight Bet: Asian Handicap (0.0 +0.50) @ $1.71 - $10 bet

Straight Bet: Algeria WIN @ $3 - $6 bet

Really like Algeria; they held Belgium well and have plenty of creativity and attacking power. Korea on the other hand lack a finisher, and Algeria is definitely a chance to take this one. As for the Belgium game, Belgium have some real quality and should be able to take care of this Russian side.
 

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My 2014 World Cup Betting Journey

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