My official betting thread

[brett128]

After being goaded to release plays, i'm gonna release plays on AFL, NRL and S15 until the end of the season at least.

I'm now officially 0-1 ATS after losing Sydney -8.5.

I will post plays and their estimated win % ATS. My goal is 57%+ ATS in AFL till the end of the season, and 55% in both NRL and the remainder of the S15 season.

My two other posted plays are:

Melbourne -21.5 at 60% and
North Melbourne +19.5 at 60%

My posted NRL plays are:

North Queensland -10.5 @ 55%
Penrith -2.5 @ 55%

I will post totals plays, but will not release them until I get down in the market myself. Plays will be posted usually on the night before or day of the game. This is because I account for information that only comes in prior to game start.

There seems to be a lot hatred already at me being a 'smart ass academic', seemingly big mouthing myself with showing nothing. I was merely trying to show people how they lose money the fastest. So here's my plays.

And my proposition to Tants stands for anyone here: If you think I talk a whole lot of ****, i'm happy to take on anyone up to $10K in a season long ATS competition. We can start in a couple of months with the NFL, or wait for the NBA.

It'll be along the same lines as the NFL handicapper's contest at the LVH; x amount of plays per week for the whole season. We post plays mid week for everyone to see. Winner takes all.

If you want to get down, PM me. We can even organize side action.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I'll bet you 10k you don't keep posting until the end of the season, give it 2 weeks max.

 

[Terror Time]

I'll bet you 10k you don't keep posting until the end of the season, give it 2 weeks max.

if you only had 10k... even in cents

 

[Jan Juc]

Sure 10k in dollars is the same as 10k in cents?

A kilo of cement vs a kilo of feathers?

 

[Donkson]

lol at not posting odds.

 

[Whit3y]

I'll bet you 10k you don't keep posting until the end of the season, give it 2 weeks max.

bet of the weekend

 

[brett128]

lol at not posting odds.

Lol at not understanding what a line is. You poor sod. You assume typical -110 odds ($1.91); which makes break even ATS at 52.4%.

I bet you don't even understand that odds convert to probabilities either.

 

[Donkson]

Lol at not understanding what a line is. You poor sod. You assume typical -110 odds ($1.91); which makes break even ATS at 52.4%.

I bet you don't even understand that odds convert to probabilities either.

1.91 is typical?

wowwwwwwwwwwww

you would have thought a big time gamblor would actually find decent lines.

 

[asanque]

He means he is assuming 1.91 lines for the purpose of his thread, but would likely be getting better odds in reality.

Edit: I'm not sure where all the hate comes from.

He is actually putting his system where his mouth is, and I am interested in seeing how he goes.

 

[Donkson]

oh ok so he's not bothering with an accurate record.

gl with your endeavours

 

[brett128]

1.91 is typical?

wowwwwwwwwwwww

you would have thought a big time gamblor would actually find decent lines.

Please stop, you're making an absolute fool out of yourself.

He means he is assuming 1.91 lines for the purpose of his thread, but would likely be getting better odds in reality.

Exactly. In reality i'm getting better than $1.91. For the purposes of this thread, my picks take on harder to beat -110 odds. Some totals will be less than -110, I'll list the price I got it for and what book(s) I got action at.

 

[Borgsta]

Lol at not understanding what a line is. You poor sod. You assume typical -110 odds ($1.91); which makes break even ATS at 52.4%.

I bet you don't even understand that odds convert to probabilities either.

But why would you take $1.91 when $1.95+ is available?

 

[brett128]

But why would you take $1.91 when $1.95+ is available?

He means he is assuming 1.91 lines for the purpose of his thread, but would likely be getting better odds in reality.​

Exactly. In reality i'm getting better than $1.91. For the purposes of this thread, my picks take on harder to beat -110 odds. Some totals will be less than -110, I'll list the price I got it for and what book(s) I got action at.

Please actually read what I've written.

 

[brett128]

Western Bulldogs / Brisbane UNDER 181.5 @ 57% ATS. (Luxbet)

 

[brett128]

Brisbane +5 QTR Time Line @ 55% ATS (Luxbet)

 

[brett128]

Collingwood / West Coast OVER 180.5 at @ 55% (Various books)

 

[brett128]

Western Bulldogs / Brisbane UNDER 181.5 @ 57% ATS. (Luxbet) WIN

Brisbane +5 QTR Time Line @ 55% ATS (Luxbet) WIN

2-1 ATS

 

[brett128]

North Queensland / Canberra UNDER 44.5 @ 55%

 

[brett128]

Essendon / Fremantle UNDER 171.5 @ 57% (Luxbet)

 

[brett128]

Fremantle +8.5 at 55% (Bet365)

 

[The_Doctor]

Lol at not understanding what a line is. You poor sod. You assume typical -110 odds ($1.91); which makes break even ATS at 52.4%.

I bet you don't even understand that odds convert to probabilities either.

Why cant you put up what odds you got on at? Its pointless just assuming $1.91 on every bet if thats not infact what you are taking

 

[hawkes2012]

Fremantle +8.5 at 55% (Bet365)

Nice bet here I give freo a real chance Dons can't travel I'll have to get on this

 

[brett128]

Don't take under +8.5. It's only just over the 55% win % threshold at 8.5

 

[Cuzz09]

Can you explain the %

 

[The_Doctor]

Nice bet here I give freo a real chance Dons can't travel I'll have to get on this

9.5 at sportsbet if you are going to back it