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If you can scratch out another point somewhere, Freo +10.5 would be a 57% play.
 

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North Queensland -10.5 @ 55% WIN
North Queensland / Canberra UNDER 44.5 @ 55% LOSS
Collingwood / West Coast OVER 180.5 at @ 55% (Various books) LOSS

3-3 ATS
 
Out of curiosity, how long have you been running your system?
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There's a big difference between a system and a model. I literally try and model the point outcomes for each team. A 'system' implies a line of heuristic reasoning.

"I will bet against a team that covers ATS by >=40 points the week before". ---> This is sound heuristic handicapping, and what I call a 'system'. It is also back testable and can have p value associated with how significantly it can predict one side of the spread. It shows an understanding of market tendencies, and how the weight of square money creates inefficient lines. I use heuristics myself and combine them in my 'grand unified model' with model predictions.

However, "I'll fade against ****** x, as I think he is that bad that I can bet the other way". Is an eminently bad line of heuristic handicapping. It shows a lack of understanding how a zero edge punter will eventually gravitate to his coin flipping long term average of 50% with their ever increasing betting occurrences.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic <--- What angles are. I think of them as a 'short cut' / complement to proper modelling
 
brett128 said:
There's a big difference between a system and a model. I literally try and model the point outcomes for each team. A 'system' implies a line of heuristic reasoning.

"I will bet against a team that covers ATS by >=40 points the week before". ---> This is sound heuristic handicapping, and what I call a 'system'. It is also back testable and can have p value associated with how significantly it can predict one side of the spread. It shows an understanding of market tendencies, and how the weight of square money creates inefficient lines. I use heuristics myself and combine them in my 'grand unified model' with model predictions.

However, "I'll fade against ****** x, as I think he is that bad that I can bet the other way". Is an eminently bad line of heuristic handicapping. It shows a lack of understanding how a zero edge punter will eventually gravitate to his coin flipping long term average of 50% with their ever increasing betting occurrences.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic <--- What angles are. I think of them as a 'short cut' / complement to proper modelling
Click to expand...

So how long have you been running your model?
 
I do have one query with all this. How on earth can you follow so many sports at once and have an accurate opinion unless your basing your selections from stats which i don't believe is viable.

Something else as well and this part is purely opinion. It's not brains which allows you to beat any form of gambling, it's feel. I see the same thing with poker to use an example with the occasional person having a similar outlook on things as yourself but fk me, just look at someone like Tony G or the late Stu Ungar or pretty much all the best players in the world.

Pretty much all them are degenerates with a sixth sense.
 
North Queensland -10.5 @ 55% WIN
Penrith -2.5 @ 55% LOSS
Western Bulldogs / Brisbane UNDER 181.5 @ 57% ATS. (Luxbet) WIN
Brisbane +5 QTR Time Line @ 55% ATS (Luxbet) WIN
Collingwood / West Coast OVER 180.5 at @ 55% (Various books) LOSS
North Queensland / Canberra UNDER 44.5 @ 55% LOSS
Essendon / Fremantle UNDER 171.5 @ 57% (Luxbet) LOSS
Fremantle +8.5 at 55% (Bet365) LOSS
Penrith / Parramatta UNDER 44 @ 57% (Sportsbet, IAS bet) WIN

4-5 ATS so far

Expected wins ATS: 5.01
Actual wins ATS: 4
 
brett128 said:
North Queensland -10.5 @ 55% WIN
Penrith -2.5 @ 55% LOSS
Western Bulldogs / Brisbane UNDER 181.5 @ 57% ATS. (Luxbet) WIN
Brisbane +5 QTR Time Line @ 55% ATS (Luxbet) WIN
Collingwood / West Coast OVER 180.5 at @ 55% (Various books) LOSS
North Queensland / Canberra UNDER 44.5 @ 55% LOSS
Essendon / Fremantle UNDER 171.5 @ 57% (Luxbet) LOSS
Fremantle +8.5 at 55% (Bet365) LOSS
Penrith / Parramatta UNDER 44 @ 57% (Sportsbet, IAS bet) WIN

4-5 ATS so far

Expected wins ATS: 5.01
Actual wins ATS: 4
Click to expand...

4-6

Forgot the Sydney -8.5
 
So how long have you been running your model?
Click to expand...

The AFL model is the longest. Since round 20 of last season. Finished my first seasons in NBA, NFL NCAAF. Currently betting NRL and S15 in their first season.

I do so many sports because I don't work alone. There's 3 of us. One programmer and 2 modellers. The other guy is a Yank.

opinion unless your basing your selections from stats which i don't believe is viable.
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This is so wrong.

I see the same thing with poker to use an example with the occasional person having a similar outlook on things as yourself but fk me, just look at someone like Tony G or the late Stu Ungar or pretty much all the best players in the world.
Click to expand...

I come from a poker background. I played full time for 18 months. I've played over 2 million hands. I had a very math heavy style of play which allowed me to 12-24 table anywhere between $1/$2 and $3/$6 SH and FRNL Hold Em'. I was your typical 0.5bb/100 mid stake grinder earning $30 (tax free) an hour mostly on rake back. In the end the I was doing 0bb/100 and noticed a marked improvement in general play. I lost what little edge I had. The amount of time and effort to maintain edges even at mid limits now is ridicolous. You need to play 30 hours a week, and study for 20.

The thing I like about sport betting is as your bankroll grows, your competitors stay the same. You don't play tougher and tougher opponents at higher stakes. You're only problem is liquidity. I'd rather have the problem of finding liquidity in soft markets than getting as much action as I want on the poker table at high stakes with razor thin or zero edge.
 

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Oh ok, still though thats a great deal of hands especially if you were only playing full time for 18 months. I just based it on a hand lasting a minute and a half too, most will last longer than that
 
I went 4-6 this weekend also and I didn't even have to spend 4 years at college to get those results!

On a serious note, good luck with your plays, will be following with interest and wishing you the best. :thumbsu:

ps: I would be interested to hear more information on your 65 variable model. I think you speak eloquently and do have an understanding of punting investment, but in reality you have only said that you have a model that assesses multiple factors from a game to determine the likely result which I think we all do on some level.
 
1.5 million hands in 18 months. 0.5M hands in the 4 years before that playing part time to pay the weekly partying bill.

FRNL plays about 55-60 hands an hour per table. SHNL about 70-80 hands an hour per table.

Probably averaged about 18 tables.
 
4-6

Forgot the Sydney -8.5
Click to expand...

My bad. 4-6 ATS.

Expected wins ATS: 5.61
Actual wins: 4

And the weekend isn't over.

ps: I would be interested to hear more information on your 65 variable model. I think you speak eloquently and do have an understanding of punting investment, but in reality you have only said that you have a model that assesses multiple factors from a game to determine the likely result which I think we all do on some level.
Click to expand...

Sorry it's not happening with more info on the model. Part of the model's IP is covered by a non-disclosure agreement. AFL is the only model where I use so many variables too.

Yes we all intuitively gauge multiple factors, but how many can you weigh up in your mind? How many weeks can you keep track of? 4-5 variables and maybe a few weeks. Computers can weigh up and analyse things a lot better than we can.

why aren't you limited anywhere? bet365 in particular
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This is my first year of serious sports betting. My stupidity (and hubris) has cost me 10 months of a lack of line shopping. The only reason why I made another account outside of Pinny was to get down on AFL totals at Betfair. I thought I was good enough to bite into Pinny's sharper lines and make good money.

I only opened half a dozen accounts at the corporate books last week, or refinanced old poker accounts that had books (ie. bodog). I'm not going to make the mistake of leaving value on the table again. I need/want every half point I can get from now on. It remains to see how long I have before I get banned.
 
brett128 said:
The AFL model is the longest. Since round 20 of last season. Finished my first seasons in NBA, NFL NCAAF. Currently betting NRL and S15 in their first season.

I do so many sports because I don't work alone. There's 3 of us. One programmer and 2 modellers. The other guy is a Yank.

The thing I like about sport betting is as your bankroll grows, your competitors stay the same. You don't play tougher and tougher opponents at higher stakes. You're only problem is liquidity. I'd rather have the problem of finding liquidity in soft markets than getting as much action as I want on the poker table at high stakes with razor thin or zero edge.
Click to expand...

So what is your ROI this year?

We've gone about half a year so you should be able to get a sense of how it is going.

Always love to hear someone devise a way to beat the system.

However, its not that easy and success stories are few and far between.

I would actually think Poker is easier than Sports Betting in terms of making a consistent profit.

At least in poker, you are on even terms with your opponents and the key issue is the rake.

Sports betting you always start off at a disadvantage based on the bookie's margin.

Even if you can turnover a consistent profit, you quickly hit limits on most bookmakers (i.e. liquidity issue).

Generally the most successful punters are the racing punters who can at least manipulate the system and get rebates (Zeljko Ranogajec).

Some others can make a good profit manipulating tote pools.

Beating the bookies at their own game in sports? Certainly possible, but I'm skeptical about the predictive powers of any mathematical model given the huge variables that can exist.

Good luck with your endeavours :)
 
brett128 said:
There's a big difference between a system and a model. I literally try and model the point outcomes for each team. A 'system' implies a line of heuristic reasoning.

"I will bet against a team that covers ATS by >=40 points the week before". ---> This is sound heuristic handicapping, and what I call a 'system'. It is also back testable and can have p value associated with how significantly it can predict one side of the spread. It shows an understanding of market tendencies, and how the weight of square money creates inefficient lines. I use heuristics myself and combine them in my 'grand unified model' with model predictions.

However, "I'll fade against ****** x, as I think he is that bad that I can bet the other way". Is an eminently bad line of heuristic handicapping. It shows a lack of understanding how a zero edge punter will eventually gravitate to his coin flipping long term average of 50% with their ever increasing betting occurrences.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic <--- What angles are. I think of them as a 'short cut' / complement to proper modelling
Click to expand...
Classy.

I think I've struck a nerve with you. Hate seeing winners?

Good luck with your model. You might want to do a lot more reading on BF if you want to keep posting about it's awesomeness. I think you also need a catchy name like The Orb or Beat the Bookies or Fade. Nobody is going to follow you otherwise. Also, if your plan is to go tout (why would you give away your model's predictions otherwise?) BF has some of the tightest punters in the land - just ask Chief
 
I would actually think Poker is easier than Sports Betting in terms of making a consistent profit.

At least in poker, you are on even terms with your opponents and the key issue is the rake.

Sports betting you always start off at a disadvantage based on the bookie's margin.
Click to expand...

So far, I've made more money playing poker than sport betting. Heck, even my poker bot farm grinding 0.25c limit hold 'em made more money so far. So I tend to agree, sport betting is f*cken hard, but when you get to the point where you have edge, you reap the benefits.

In poker, THE issue is the rake. If I remeber correctly, I payed like 4K-5K a month in rake when grinding. It's just as damaging as the bookie's margin. No rake, and I'd have been a lot better off. If I could pay no juice against other sports bettors now, even at my current average 53% win ATS, i'd be crushing, anyone would.

Anyone that can go 55%+ long term in sports betting (which overcomes 52.4% breakeven) is going to make a f*cken lot of money. But i'm not talking beating AFL for 55% here (which I believe is easily beatable for 55%). I'm talking $0.25M drops on leagues like the NFL or EPL at a long term win ATS of 55%.

I'd say there's less than 100 people that can do this on the planet.

Even if you can turnover a consistent profit, you quickly hit limits on most bookmakers (i.e. liquidity issue).
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As I said before, please please please give me this problem. I'd rather tackle problems associated with liquidity than problems with having no edge. Pick as much of the low hanging fruit first before you go for the big red apple at the top of the tree.
 
I'm on just under 3000 bets at 52.95% ATS. My ROI is 0.2% on close to $2M. :( As I said, i'm learning the game in my first 12 months of serious betting. I overestimated my true win % severely on some sports, and Kelly made me pay the price. However, I'd rather make those mistakes now, than 5 years down the track.

The Kelly Criterion is a hard taskmaster, and punishes you quickly if you make mistakes. However, if you ever get to know your true win % (and that's the million dollar 'if' question), you can size your bets accordingly and begin the process of monte carlo simulation of bankroll runs to estimate volatility and effective risk of ruin when constructing your bankroll management methodology.
 
brett128 said:
As I said before, please please please give me this problem. I'd rather tackle problems associated with liquidity than problems with having no edge. Pick as much of the low hanging fruit first before you go for the big red apple at the top of the tree.
Click to expand...

Depending on the size of your bets and how successful you are, I'd say you should have at least 6 months to a year before limits kick in.

Make hay whilst the sun shines ;)
 
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