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brett128 said:
I've answered this question before. Grade me against -110 ($1.91), however I usually get better than that. What more do you want.


Do you actually understand that win % is about 10x more important than a cent or two shopping for odds?
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You claim to have made $40,000 off $2 million in bets somewhere. If you received 2c better odds on all your bets you would have doubled your profit. When your win percentage is about 50% (like it is for you) then every cent counts and can be the difference between making money and losing money as slowly as possible.
 
Borgsta said:
yep do you know how often a team wins by 4 or 5?
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Dude you really should research what you're talking about when you come along and act like you know what you're talking about.

Using the SBR half point calculator:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

I rely on the SBR half point calc for American sports, but have made my own push charts for sides and totals for the Australian footballing codes.

The half point calc shows that a +-3.5 team moving from 3.5 to 5.5 will move in this way:

Moving to the 4 = 2.99%
Moving off the 4 = 2.99%
Moving to the 5 = 1.68%
Moving off the 5 = 1.68%

= 2.99 + 2.99 + 1.68 + 1.68 = 9.34%

You don't count the whole population of games won by 4 or 5 points, as you're including various point spreads that will win no where near as often by 4 or 5 as a team originally at a spread of 3.5.
 

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tants said:
You claim to have made $40,000 off $2 million in bets somewhere. If you received 2c better odds on all your bets you would have doubled your profit. When your win percentage is about 50% (like it is for you) then every cent counts and can be the difference between making money and losing money as slowly as possible.
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What happened if I had a win % of +1%?

What's more important?
 
brett128 said:
Dude you really should research what you're talking about when you come along and act like you know what you're talking about.

9.34%
.
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So you were wrong when you said 10%? Glad you finally admitted it. Wasn't so hard was it?

I do love the fact that you think SBR is some secret resource that you have found
 
I said it was about 10%. And you know (and I know) you didn't know what the f**k you were talking about.

Asking how often a game lands on the 4 or 5 was not the right question to ask, as it shows you were not taking into account the spread.
 
NCAAB:

Valparaiso -15.5 @ 55%
Niagara + 5 @ 55%
W. Milwaukee -4.5 @ 55%
USC +11 @ 55%
 
Georgia Tech -11 @ 55% WIN
GSW -2.5 @ 55% WIN
UTA -1.5 @ 55% LOSS
Dayton -10 @ 55% LOSS
Illinois Chicago -5 @ 55% WIN
Samford +3 @ 55% LOSS
ORL +5.5 @ 55% LOSS
Auburn -9 @ 55% LOSS
Drexel -13 @ 55% LOSS
West Virginia -3 @ 55% LOSS
SAS -5.5 @ 55% WIN
Nebraska +6 @ 55% WIN
ATL -9 @ 55% LOSS
Wyoming +1 @ 55% WIN
BYU -9 @ 55% WIN
NO +3.5 @ 55% LOSS
GSW +1.5 @ 55% WIN
Texas State -2.5 @ 55% LOSS
Auburn h2h @ 55% LOSS
DET +7.5 @ 55% LOSS
Arkansas State -3 @ 55% LOSS
St Josephs +6 @ 55% LOSS
Louisville -11 @ 55% LOSS
Davidson -14.5 @ 55% WIN
NC Wilmington +15 @ 55% WIN
Princeton +3.5 @ 55% WIN
Niagara -5.5 @ 55% LOSS
Boise State -9 @ 55% WIN
PIT +9.5 @ 55% WIN
WAS +3 @ 55% WIN
MIN +8.5 @ 55% LOSS
MIN AT GB OVER 45.5 @ 55% LOSS
ORL +9.5 @ 55% WIN
TOR +10.5 @ 55% WIN
POR +1 @ 55% WIN
HOU +2 @ 55% WIN
Samford +27 @ 55% LOSS
DET -4.5 @ 57% LOSS
PHI +10.5 @ 60% WIN
CAR -3.5 @ 62% LOSS
ARZ +6 @ 62% WIN
MIA +7.5 @ 60% WIN
TB +8 @ 60% PUSH
CLE AT OAK OVER 37.5 @ 60% LOSS

21-22-1 for the period

60+% = 102-90-5 (0.530) Actual vs expected Z score: -1.99
57+% = 87-81-2 (0.518) Actual vs expected Z score: -1.38
55+% = 82-91-1 (0.474) Actual vs expected Z score: -2.01

Current Index Number: 21
 
brett128 said:
I said it was about 10%. And you know (and I know) you didn't know what the f**k you were talking about.

Asking how often a game lands on the 4 or 5 was not the right question to ask, as it shows you were not taking into account the spread.
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No you said 10 and were wrong
 

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brett128 said:
Who wants to talk sh*t now? You had NFI.
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Hi Brett. I have a question for you:

I assume you've recorded all your bets so far and know what your index number is, etc, having bet fully Kelly on them. These sample of bets are now a good testing ground. I'd like to know, and I am sure the results would interest yourself, how you would've gone if you were betting each of the following:

1. Full Kelly (as you have been)
2. 3/4 Kelly
3. 1/2 Kelly
4. 1/4 Kelly

If you've got records it'd obviously be a pretty simple matter in Excel to work those things out. You could graph them and have a look at the ups and downs based on that. Of course, the final index numbers (to this point) would be very interesting too.

I say it because although I personally focus on racing, I wouldn't bet more than 10% Kelly, and even that's pretty high, because there's absolutely no way that my price is accurate enough for that. I know when I've gone through periods of my own betting, if I'd bet Full Kelly it'd have been a disaster, whereas a 10% Kelly is a lot more smooth. To be honest, I usually bet around 7% Kelly, that's enough for me.

Obviously, racing and sports are very different and you can come up with a more accurate/reliable price on a sporting event, there's more chaos in a horse race. For starters, quarterbacks don't have Danny Nikolic pulling them up... So, 7% Kelly would be too weak on sports betting, but I'd be interested to know how those higher figures like 1/4, 1/2 look on your history this year.
 
NCAAB:

Cal Santa Barbara +15 @ 55%
Long Beach State + 20 @ 55%
Vanderbilt + 11.5 @ 55%
AR Little Rock + 20 @ 55%
 
Brett would you be up for some AFL line betting against me next year?

Perhaps, Each round, we would take turns in putting up a handicap for each round by Sunday night (I.e. before the books post on Monday). The other person must bet every game within an hour of being provided with the handicaps.

I'd be happy to play for whatever stakes you choose, assuming we could find a way to escrow the money before each week. I'm not really looking for a dick-measuring contest or some sort of e-grudge, but just looking for some friendly action.
 
Thedeftouch said:
Brett would you be up for some AFL line betting against me next year?

Perhaps, Each round, we would take turns in putting up a handicap for each round by Sunday night (I.e. before the books post on Monday). The other person must bet every game within an hour of being provided with the handicaps.

I'd be happy to play for whatever stakes you choose, assuming we could find a way to escrow the money before each week. I'm not really looking for a dick-measuring contest or some sort of e-grudge, but just looking for some friendly action.
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I'd be happy to. Not on the Sunday before though. I want to post plays on Friday night (if choosing the Friday night game), or Saturday before midday.

Do it either LVH contest style (choosing x amount of picks per week out of the population of weekly games, say four ATS picks), or we choose a side every game ATS.

I'll give you first mover advantage in both scenarios.

With the 4 picks per week scenario, I can only choose up to two of the same games. With picking every game ATS, I can pick up to 5 of the same teams ATS with 9 game rounds, and 3 of the same sides ATS for 6 game rounds.

To have no arguments about cherry picked lines at differing books, we can agree upon a set of lines that are locked in on Thursday night.
 
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