NBA 2023/2024

[demon_fanatic]

Seasons only 3 weeks away so lets start with some preseason action, Ill play over 218.5 today in Boston vs Philly.. Boston/NYOrk Went for 221 and that was with 25% 3pt boston 31 % new york cant get much worse so some positive regression hopefully.. also Phillies 2nd game now with a few new faces so they should be a bit more cohesive...

No brown or Tatum but we get JRUE/DEREK white who weren't there last game so that should help a bit with good shot quality etc.

 

[NYRB]

Just a bit of loose change on the Outrights in 2023/24 for a bit of fun.

Thunder to win Championship at $126

Magic to Win Championship at $501

Will look into more outright odds about 2/3rds of the way into the season, as player trades can heavily sway odds . eg look at Phoenix last season when they acquired Durant. (totally flipped the markets)

 

[burge13]

Memphis win at > 26. Really good defence, good record without Ja, lost Jones but gained Smart. Suns have zero depth so one injury could be dire, bucks similar but more depth than Suns.

Fading Lakers, no player in the 21st season has averaged > 7 points and LBJ will need to still be their best player (AD too soft).

If Denver have Jokic they can win obviously. Celtics team great on paper but not convinced relying on old Horford and iniury prone Porz is good. Bucks will be good

Chet ROTY at 4s. Spurs will be cautious with Wemby whilst Chet had a year off to build up

Does the 65 games apply to all awards or just all nba teams?

Rule out the older guys from the MVP race if so. Plenty of rest still for them even with the rules. Theyll make injuries up

 

[demon_fanatic]

Memphis win at > 26. Really good defence, good record without Ja, lost Jones but gained Smart. Suns have zero depth so one injury could be dire, bucks similar but more depth than Suns.

Fading Lakers, no player in the 21st season has averaged > 7 points and LBJ will need to still be their best player (AD too soft).

If Denver have Jokic they can win obviously. Celtics team great on paper but not convinced relying on old Horford and iniury prone Porz is good. Bucks will be good

Chet ROTY at 4s. Spurs will be cautious with Wemby whilst Chet had a year off to build up

Does the 65 games apply to all awards or just all nba teams?

Rule out the older guys from the MVP race if so. Plenty of rest still for them even with the rules. Theyll make injuries up

Yeh love Memphis value/upside if Morant comes back focused!! they also will get Brandon Clarke back at some stage who was an underrated loss last year when he did knee, he is an excellent backup centre/forward. not sure on the 65 game rule if it's a set in stone rule for mvp... I feel it wouldn't be... if one guys dominated for 64 games then does knee... seems odd he would be scrubbed from contention

PRESEASON GAMES: maybe safer to back first half totals... I got screwed on the Philly Boston today as the scores often lower once the scrubs come on later on.. 126 first half... 87 or something second to fall short of my total 218.5...

 

[demon_fanatic]

Also I am all in on Boston winning the thing this year.. I feel their mix was off last year and as good as Smart can be there were personality clashes/confusion on roles and who takes the shots etc... Jrue is such a bloody addition and Porzingis only has to be healthy for playoffs to contribute welll.. Brogdan should have a less injury plagued season and then Pritchard has always been good but is breaking out in preseason showing what he can do with his minutes.. he's always been good just never given a proper go... I look at Milwakees team and yes they have Dame/Greek Freak but something about their other players I just don't like... maybe Middleton comes back fit and less injury prone but I just don't like their mix for some reason

I think this is Bostons time to break through and feel they should be the title favs not the bucks.. So am taking the 5.50 fixed odds or 6.00 on betfair.. and yeh I will take Memphis as my value bet at 26/27 betfair

 

[burge13]

Also I am all in on Boston winning the thing this year.. I feel their mix was off last year and as good as Smart can be there were personality clashes/confusion on roles and who takes the shots etc... Jrue is such a bloody addition and Porzingis only has to be healthy for playoffs to contribute welll.. Brogdan should have a less injury plagued season and then Pritchard has always been good but is breaking out in preseason showing what he can do with his minutes.. he's always been good just never given a proper go... I look at Milwakees team and yes they have Dame/Greek Freak but something about their other players I just don't like... maybe Middleton comes back fit and less injury prone but I just don't like their mix for some reason

I think this is Bostons time to break through and feel they should be the title favs not the bucks.. So am taking the 5.50 fixed odds or 6.00 on betfair.. and yeh I will take Memphis as my value bet at 26/27 betfair

My thoughts on this - So much reliance on Horford defensively v Jokic/Embiid etc as Porz isn't it. Jrue is a massive addition but I dont trust Porz to stay healthy and terrible defender. Horford is 37 then what's behind them? Brogdan isn't there either, he's with the Blazers

Come playoffs when the stars take over Dame will create so much more space for Greek plus can create his own shot. Big loss with Jrue but offensively big upgrade as far as structure goes.

Both teams will hit the buyout market hard too. Boston need a big man though, I dont think they're done trading

Most open season I can remember, really looking forward to it

 

[Suncraze]

3u MACCABI +33 TAB $1.90
NBA Pre Season v Cavs

 

[burge13]

Could do worse than Pritchard MIP at 51s. I'm sure there's better available around too

MIP usually makes playoffs - Boston will
No one with a previous all star selection has ever won it - tick
Last 10 winners been in their 3rd or 4th year or changed teams last 2 seasons - tick
Brogdon going adds minutes for him.
9 of the last 10 have averaged 20ppg. He'll fall over a bit here but he meets a lot of criteria imo

 

[demon_fanatic]

3u MACCABI +33 TAB $1.90
NBA Pre Season v Cavs

scraped in haha

 

[demon_fanatic]

Could do worse than Pritchard MIP at 51s. I'm sure there's better available around too

MIP usually makes playoffs - Boston will
No one with a previous all star selection has ever won it - tick
Last 10 winners been in their 3rd or 4th year or changed teams last 2 seasons - tick
Brogdon going adds minutes for him.
9 of the last 10 have averaged 20ppg. He'll fall over a bit here but he meets a lot of criteria imo

Yeh i looked at this and 6th man but if they go WHITE/BROWN/TATUM/PORZ/HORF it means jrue is also off bench and it could dent his 6th man chances.. be ok if Porz get some major injury early lol and it ends up moving tatum to PF and Jrue/White start... the problem with most improved is they tend to go guys who are borderline all star or been very goood already then surge to an all star level... it's rubbish really as most improved should be a guy who was fringe on getting minutes then develops into a really valuable player on team... if it was I'd be backing Pritchard very confidently and also Naz Reid at Minnesota.... but instead I am looking at guys more like Desmond Bane who could average 25 ppg this year I feel.

 

[Suncraze]

scraped in haha

Haha yeah Sweaty watch that! Wish I jumped on the live lines also

 

[burge13]

Yeh i looked at this and 6th man but if they go WHITE/BROWN/TATUM/PORZ/HORF it means jrue is also off bench and it could dent his 6th man chances.. be ok if Porz get some major injury early lol and it ends up moving tatum to PF and Jrue/White start... the problem with most improved is they tend to go guys who are borderline all star or been very goood already then surge to an all star level... it's rubbish really as most improved should be a guy who was fringe on getting minutes then develops into a really valuable player on team... if it was I'd be backing Pritchard very confidently and also Naz Reid at Minnesota.... but instead I am looking at guys more like Desmond Bane who could average 25 ppg this year I feel.

Can't see Jrue coming off the bench but with these new rest rules maybe teams will bring guys off the bench more for fewer minutes instead of starting as they traditionally would.

Bane should have won it last year. He'd need to take a decent jump to justify it this season but all star selection would help. Ja out doesn';t hurt either but voting is done at the end so early work will likely be forgotten by voters.

Better off taking the longer odds and trying to trade out than trusting voters

 

[demon_fanatic]

Can't see Jrue coming off the bench but with these new rest rules maybe teams will bring guys off the bench more for fewer minutes instead of starting as they traditionally would.

Bane should have won it last year. He'd need to take a decent jump to justify it this season but all star selection would help. Ja out doesn';t hurt either but voting is done at the end so early work will likely be forgotten by voters.

Better off taking the longer odds and trying to trade out than trusting voters

well going by preseason when they all played I think it is a Horf/Porzingis starting combo and that leaves White/Tatum/Brown. be interesting but.. Jrue/Pritchard is quite a punch to come off bench one is such a great defender and can also score and then you got Pritchard ready to break out.

 

[burge13]

well going by preseason when they all played I think it is a Horf/Porzingis starting combo and that leaves White/Tatum/Brown. be interesting but.. Jrue/Pritchard is quite a punch to come off bench one is such a great defender and can also score and then you got Pritchard ready to break out.

Jrue >>> White. Unless they just want Jrue leading the bench unit but seems a waste

 

[demon_fanatic]

Jrue >>> White. Unless they just want Jrue leading the bench unit but seems a waste

I agree Jrue is a jet and my fav player in the whole nba the way he goes about it, but pretty sure they want white to have the keys tbh and Jrue as the steadying vet off bench as he gets a bit older it will help Jrue play a full season if his mins drop 4-6 a game

 

[Suncraze]

Magic -1.5 2u NBA Preseason

 

[badusername]

RealBookie offering a $50 bonus match if you bet on the overall winner fyi.

 

[Suncraze]

Magic -1.5 2u NBA Preseason

Adding 0.5u MAGIC 11+ LIVE $11.50 Sportsbet

 

[Suncraze]

Spurs -2.5 2.5u TAB

 

[Suncraze]

Spurs -2.5 2.5u TAB

 

[Suncraze]

Celtics -4.5 2.5u

 

[Suncraze]

1.25u Kings +3 TAB

 

[Suncraze]

1.25u Kings +3 TAB

1.25u OKC -4.5 Lads

 

[Suncraze]

Celtics -4.5 2.5u

1.25u Kings +3 TAB

1.25u OKC -4.5 Lads

+2.125u Tough crowd, show me some love fellas! Crushing preseason and bring on the regular season

 

[Suncraze]

Have an early play I like, just PM me if interested