Oppo Camp Non-Essendon Football Thread XVII

[ghostdog]

So apparently Bont, uninjured, was only at 78% tog throught the second and third quarters.

Ouch Bevo.

 

[eth-dog]

Walsh??
Tdk is a star

Walsh isn't an A-Grader. Very good player but not in the same class

Tdk is a much better player than Briggs and grundy, and I’d take him over darcy or xerri.

Nah, he isn't. He could be.

 

[Kong]

Agronomus won’t be responding for a little while

But how else will we read about 2007 Essendon issues in the 2024 Non Essendon thread?

 

[BrunoV]

"Played the game out". They were 60-0 down in a cut throat final. Brisbane didn't give a shit after that and were thinking about the following week.
The issue with Carlton is that they're too slow with ineffective small forwards. Without Curnow, their avenue to goal dries up pretty quickly.
You need to have a spread of goal kickers to be effective in the modern game.

Carlton have 3 players that kicked above 20 goals. It's also not like it's caused by inaccuracy because only Curnow (41) and McKay (21) had more than 13 behinds. Most of their scoring shots comes from Curnow and McKay which is not sustainable in a high pressure final. Even both of their finals wins last year were saved by an inaccurate opponent. They kicked 11.8 and 11.7 to Sydney and Melbourne's respective 9.14 and 9.17. They also kicked 9.9 to Brisbane's 11.13 last year and again 11.5 to Brisbane's 14.15.

To compare it to other finalists:

Hawthorn have 8 players above 20.
Sydney have 7.
Geelong have 6.
GWS have 5.
Port have 6.
Brisbane have 6.
Bulldogs have 6.

Even Fremantle had 6. That's not even factoring the amount of scoring shots those players had compared to Carlton's players outside of Curnow and McKay.

Teams that have little avenues to goal under pressure won't go far in the current era. It's too easy to counter for opposition coaches. What makes us so bad despite dominating territory is that we had little avenues to capitalise in front of goal.

Carlton also struggle with an average back 6 even with Weitering. They conceded the fifth most points this year.
They're not hopeless, but they have to add some speed to their side and recruit a couple of fast and viable small/mid forwards capable of kicking 20-25 goals at least. If they use injuries as the reason why they failed instead of recognising the core issues, then they'll waste a good list.

Well Carlton could have lost by 80 odd points like Port did but it ended up losing by under 5 goals. Even the Dogs lost by more. My impression of finals matches is that it is more often the case that margins blow out, as opposed to reducing, on account of the occasion. I have no feel for the inability to maintain the rage that may well happen if the players believe they have done enough but I would be stunned if Fagan took the foot off, particularly given the momentum swings that have dictated results in the last 2 matches between the sides at the Gabba. Brisbane is not a game management side, never has been.

There is no doubt that Carlton have some structural problems but all sides do. Let's not pretend that they didn't just play a side with 7 or 8 of their best players obviously underdone and that their season was not heavily impacted by injury.

They've hit an interesting crossroad. I thought Voss was the ideal appointment for Carlton at the end of 2021 but that didn't mean he had a long shelf life. They needed that overbearing, more old school figure to set up a culture, someone to keep it simple and who had the authority to force the issue. Their weakness is outside / secondary clearance and being able to defend the transition and the turnover game but Voss has been working on it. However, it is possible that he cannot sell that vision.

I see that loss to Collingwood in round 23 in 2022 as a sliding doors moment. They spent the whole season in the top 8 only to fall out on the last day. I think they needed the validation of that finals appearance to then continue with the project build. Carlton then had that odd start in 2023, where they were trying to develop a transition game, a big tick for Voss because it shows that he is no where near as limited tactically as he initially seemed, but it obviously didn't work. They reverted to type to save the season and that worked albeit that they didn't evolve as they would need to. Fast forward 12 months and it appears as though they have developed the transition game but never got the chance to put it together, with the clearance game, because injury blew the arse out of the season.

In theory they have actually developed that transition / turnover game, because that is how they were sitting 2nd not so long ago having taken apart the likes of GWS and Geelong, but they never really got the chance to combine it with the clearance game. It looks like Voss has changed his stripes, at least tactically, but then there is all of this fitness stuff.

It is not like they do not have players who can help with the outside game, Hollands and Binns in particular. Cowan has an explosive burst off half back. They're kids at the moment, though they may be close enough to adults for R1 2025. They do need some quick small forward, even if Motlop comes on there is need for at least 1 more.

They've got a rock solid foundation. It is a very easy thing to add to at this stage. They'll just need to sort out the injury list.

 

[HirdyLannister]

Carlton are shit and are going no where under current coach and leadership.

 

[Mercurial89]

Well Carlton could have lost by 80 odd points like Port did but it ended up losing by under 5 goals. Even the Dogs lost by more. My impression of finals matches is that it is more often the case that margins blow out, as opposed to reducing, on account of the occasion. I have no feel for the inability to maintain the rage that may well happen if the players believe they have done enough but I would be stunned if Fagan took the foot off, particularly given the momentum swings that have dictated results in the last 2 matches between the sides at the Gabba. Brisbane is not a game management side, never has been.

There is no doubt that Carlton have some structural problems but all sides do. Let's not pretend that they didn't just play a side with 7 or 8 of their best players obviously underdone and that their season was not heavily impacted by injury.

They've hit an interesting crossroad. I thought Voss was the ideal appointment for Carlton at the end of 2021 but that didn't mean he had a long shelf life. They needed that overbearing, more old school figure to set up a culture, someone to keep it simple and who had the authority to force the issue. Their weakness is outside / secondary clearance and being able to defend the transition and the turnover game but Voss has been working on it. However, it is possible that he cannot sell that vision.

I see that loss to Collingwood in round 23 in 2022 as a sliding doors moment. They spent the whole season in the top 8 only to fall out on the last day. I think they needed the validation of that finals appearance to then continue with the project build. Carlton then had that odd start in 2023, where they were trying to develop a transition game, a big tick for Voss because it shows that he is no where near as limited tactically as he initially seemed, but it obviously didn't work. They reverted to type to save the season and that worked albeit that they didn't evolve as they would need to. Fast forward 12 months and it appears as though they have developed the transition game but never got the chance to put it together, with the clearance game, because injury blew the arse out of the season.

In theory they have actually developed that transition / turnover game, because that is how they were sitting 2nd not so long ago having taken apart the likes of GWS and Geelong, but they never really got the chance to combine it with the clearance game. It looks like Voss has changed his stripes, at least tactically, but then there is all of this fitness stuff.

It is not like they do not have players who can help with the outside game, Hollands and Binns in particular. Cowan has an explosive burst off half back. They're kids at the moment, though they may be close enough to adults for R1 2025. They do need some quick small forward, even if Motlop comes on there is need for at least 1 more.

They've got a rock solid foundation. It is a very easy thing to add to at this stage. They'll just need to sort out the injury list.

They will be challenging strongly next year if they get the fitness sorted.

 

[eth-dog]

They will be challenging strongly next year if they get the fitness sorted.

As well as their defense and their inability to hold up strongly under mental pressure.

As Essendon supporters we should be able to tell the difference between the two clubs. It's basically the fact that they have two top 10 key forwards in the league.

 

[JayJ20]

Well Carlton could have lost by 80 odd points like Port did but it ended up losing by under 5 goals. Even the Dogs lost by more. My impression of finals matches is that it is more often the case that margins blow out, as opposed to reducing, on account of the occasion. I have no feel for the inability to maintain the rage that may well happen if the players believe they have done enough but I would be stunned if Fagan took the foot off, particularly given the momentum swings that have dictated results in the last 2 matches between the sides at the Gabba. Brisbane is not a game management side, never has been.

There is no doubt that Carlton have some structural problems but all sides do. Let's not pretend that they didn't just play a side with 7 or 8 of their best players obviously underdone and that their season was not heavily impacted by injury.

They've hit an interesting crossroad. I thought Voss was the ideal appointment for Carlton at the end of 2021 but that didn't mean he had a long shelf life. They needed that overbearing, more old school figure to set up a culture, someone to keep it simple and who had the authority to force the issue. Their weakness is outside / secondary clearance and being able to defend the transition and the turnover game but Voss has been working on it. However, it is possible that he cannot sell that vision.

I see that loss to Collingwood in round 23 in 2022 as a sliding doors moment. They spent the whole season in the top 8 only to fall out on the last day. I think they needed the validation of that finals appearance to then continue with the project build. Carlton then had that odd start in 2023, where they were trying to develop a transition game, a big tick for Voss because it shows that he is no where near as limited tactically as he initially seemed, but it obviously didn't work. They reverted to type to save the season and that worked albeit that they didn't evolve as they would need to. Fast forward 12 months and it appears as though they have developed the transition game but never got the chance to put it together, with the clearance game, because injury blew the arse out of the season.

In theory they have actually developed that transition / turnover game, because that is how they were sitting 2nd not so long ago having taken apart the likes of GWS and Geelong, but they never really got the chance to combine it with the clearance game. It looks like Voss has changed his stripes, at least tactically, but then there is all of this fitness stuff.

It is not like they do not have players who can help with the outside game, Hollands and Binns in particular. Cowan has an explosive burst off half back. They're kids at the moment, though they may be close enough to adults for R1 2025. They do need some quick small forward, even if Motlop comes on there is need for at least 1 more.

They've got a rock solid foundation. It is a very easy thing to add to at this stage. They'll just need to sort out the injury list.

I couldn't disagree more regarding yesterday's game. First of all, the scoring shots tell a different story, but ignoring that, it was very evident that Brisbane just stopped going in hard after they set up a 60 point win. It's like saying we finished the season strong when we lost to Brisbane by 20 points in the last round. We just kicked 5 goals in the last when the sting went out of the contest. Nothing good about that performance and likewise with Carlton's.

Even if all you say is correct, an injury list is not easy to sort out. More often than not, the teams that have a large injury list one season continue to have a large injury list. Sure their injuries after the Hawthorn game in round 23 were unsustainable for any side, but they only beat North and West Coast after that Richmond win in round 17. Their bad form started before they had those significant injuries, losing to Bulldogs, Collingwood (who were hit by injuries), GWS in a huge capitulation and obviously Hawthorn and St Kilda.

I would have overlooked their second half of the season if it wasn't a trend. As you say, in 2022, they choked a finals spot. Last year, they only played half a season irrespective of the reasons. They again managed half a season this year whether it's due to injuries or form. Something happened after the 1st quarter of the GWS and they capitulated.

I agree they have a solid foundation to build on. I think they've significantly underachieved and should be closer to what Brisbane have been since 2019, but they need more than just improving their side from a personnel perspective.
Carlton's biggest problem is a weak culture. Mentally weak and easily defeated because of it. Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Essendon, Port, all of these sides are mentally weak and unreliable. Next year will tell us whether Voss is truly the coach that will lead them to a premiership.

For us, our litmus test is beating Geelong. As long as we lose to them, we won't amount to anything.
For Carlton, it's beating Collingwood. They continuously choke to Collingwood.

 

[andleanback]

Walsh isn't an A-Grader. Very good player but not in the same class

Nah, he isn't. He could be.

Walsh not an a grade, yeh this is where I leave this conversation

 

[andleanback]

So apparently Bont, uninjured, was only at 78% tog throught the second and third quarters.

Ouch Bevo.

A couple % less that what he’d normally be. That’s not a bevo issue

 

[DERO]

I couldn't disagree more regarding yesterday's game. First of all, the scoring shots tell a different story, but ignoring that, it was very evident that Brisbane just stopped going in hard after they set up a 60 point win. It's like saying we finished the season strong when we lost to Brisbane by 20 points in the last round. We just kicked 5 goals in the last when the sting went out of the contest. Nothing good about that performance and likewise with Carlton's.

Even if all you say is correct, an injury list is not easy to sort out. More often than not, the teams that have a large injury list one season continue to have a large injury list. Sure their injuries after the Hawthorn game in round 23 were unsustainable for any side, but they only beat North and West Coast after that Richmond win in round 17. Their bad form started before they had those significant injuries, losing to Bulldogs, Collingwood (who were hit by injuries), GWS in a huge capitulation and obviously Hawthorn and St Kilda.

I would have overlooked their second half of the season if it wasn't a trend. As you say, in 2022, they choked a finals spot. Last year, they only played half a season irrespective of the reasons. They again managed half a season this year whether it's due to injuries or form. Something happened after the 1st quarter of the GWS and they capitulated.

I agree they have a solid foundation to build on. I think they've significantly underachieved and should be closer to what Brisbane have been since 2019, but they need more than just improving their side from a personnel perspective.
Carlton's biggest problem is a weak culture. Mentally weak and easily defeated because of it. Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle, Essendon, Port, all of these sides are mentally weak and unreliable. Next year will tell us whether Voss is truly the coach that will lead them to a premiership.

For us, our litmus test is beating Geelong. As long as we lose to them, we won't amount to anything.
For Carlton, it's beating Collingwood. They continuously choke to Collingwood.

Luck with injuries is so important yet so often overlooked...

Injury ladder​

Table with 4 columns and 18 rows.

	Total games missed		Games missed by top 22 players
Gold Coast Suns	95	Sydney	44
Melbourne	118	Gold Coast Suns	56
Geelong	122	Fremantle	60
Port Adelaide	125	GWS	61
Sydney	126	Geelong	65
Western Bulldogs	128	Essendon	66
Adelaide	133	Port Adelaide	70
North Melbourne	134	North Melbourne	73
Essendon	142	Western Bulldogs	86
St Kilda	145	West Coast	90
Brisbane Lions	152	St Kilda	90
Hawthorn	158	Collingwood	93
GWS	159	Melbourne	97
Fremantle	162	Hawthorn	102
West Coast	167	Adelaide	106
Collingwood	176	Brisbane Lions	114
Carlton	192	Carlton	137
Richmond	261	Richmond	171

 

[BrunoV]

Bevo's issue is that he's trying to win with a brand that can't win.

He's conned people into this idea that the Dogs list isn't good enough. That's true but we need to understand what that means from his perspective. It won't ever be good enough because they're not going to have 2 x Bont, 2 x Richards and and English who is physical, for example. They need a perfect team to win a flag with Bevo at the helm. Is it West and Garcia who will bring them to the promised land, is it?

It's a bit similar to us. Dont listen to the words, look at the actions. The Dogs will never be good enough while English, who has just completed his 8th year, is getting bullied physically. He's not going to change his stripes and yet he has an 8 year contract. So by Bevo's admission the list isn't good enough. It's time for a new perspective.

Bevo would have been banished from the top flight years ago if we were in Eurpoe, would not even have gotten a gig at Roma.

 

[Mercurial89]

As well as their defense and their inability to hold up strongly under mental pressure.

As Essendon supporters we should be able to tell the difference between the two clubs. It's basically the fact that they have two top 10 key forwards in the league.

Their game was in a very good spot for a portion of the year before their injuries gutted their chances.

Their major issue was scores from stoppages which also happens to be one of the easier sources to fix.
They just need some tinkering around the edges to get their balance right.

Times running out for them but they are in good shape in their current iteration.

The fact you think the clubs are even remotely similar is crazy

 

[Westlo]

Carlton will be fine.

Underdone players all over the park and played the game out instead of being humiliated.

**** me Bruno, if there was ever a comment that shows you don't actually watch the product it's this one.

 

[Squeaky]

They also have a dependable full back.
He is good.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Tbh Carlton were shit before the injuries (and after). Most clubs don't go a whole year without injuries anyway and good clubs cover them.

The game has moved past having the same elite players you rely on. It's moving towards having good, consistent role players across the team now. This has played a part in causing the eveness we see. Clubs are able to take it up against each other more now through the development of easier found role players.

After the few elite players that Carlton have, one of which is Harry (that seems to still be living on past efforts) the list drops off and is ageing. This means teams with role players are able to run over the top of them. Carlton's B-graders aren't as good as theirs.

In hindsight, Carlton were probably lucky that both of their opponents were heavily inaccurate in the EF/Semi and them giving up a 40 point lead in the 2nd half of the prelim that they probably shouln't have made was a telling sign of what they were. The prelim ultimately increased the expectations and papered over the cracks.

If Carlton wants to compete in the future having wasted 3 years on a false pretense already then they need their team to be more even.

 

[ghostdog]

A couple % less that what he’d normally be. That’s not a bevo issue

In an elimination final when they were struggling to get possession, and he was playing forward for a lot of that time when he was on ground. No, that's not a Bevo issue.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Well Carlton could have lost by 80 odd points like Port did but it ended up losing by under 5 goals.

Geelong weren't up 60 to an opponent's zero.

A stretch to compare these. Two teams fighting off for a prelim with each expecting a top 4 effort or possible fightback from a top 4 opponent.

Brisbane had every right to be thinking about the weeks after and self-preserve at 60 to 0, especially since they had more games to come. They kicked it up a notch at the end.

If anything Brisbane had more reason to put us away for % in the last round when their chance for top 4 was still a chance. Would you say we're good cos we lost by less? Carn.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Tbh Carlton were shit before the injuries (and after). Most clubs don't go a whole year without injuries anyway and good clubs cover them.

The game has moved past having the same elite players you rely on. It's moving towards having good, consistent role players across the team now. This has played a part in causing the eveness we see. Clubs are able to take it up against each other more now through the development of easier found role players.

After the few elite players that Carlton have, one of which is Harry (that seems to still be living on past efforts) the list drops off and is ageing. This means teams with role players are able to run over the top of them. Carlton's B-graders aren't as good as theirs.

In hindsight, Carlton were probably lucky that both of their opponents were heavily inaccurate in the EF/Semi and them giving up a 40 point lead in the 2nd half of the prelim that they probably shouln't have made was a telling sign of what they were. The prelim ultimately increased the expectations and papered over the cracks.

If Carlton wants to compete in the future having wasted 3 years on a false pretense already then they need their team to be more even.

There’s injuries and then there’s a shitload of injuries which is what happened to Carlton. And importantly to some key personnel. Other top teams have struggled when they’ve lost key players but don’t think any have copped injuries Carlton have.

 

[Call Me Cake]

There’s injuries and then there’s a shitload of injuries which is what happened to Carlton. And importantly to some key personnel. Other top teams have struggled when they’ve lost key players but don’t think any have copped injuries Carlton have.

They were on a heavy losing streak before the 2nd half of the Hawks game. That's when the injuries became abnormal. Their wins in almost 3 months of footy were Tiges, North and WCE. The key point made is the game is moving to even role players and Carlton's drops off. So they're more prone than others due to inconsistencies of the top % or injuries. They need to change or they will tread water on a fantasy.

 

[Kavliaris69]

Don't worry they made sure to tell the media they are

View attachment 2103089

Apologies for the intrusion but can I say that if the players did this for their growth it showed great leadership actually. Well done to the leadership group. Would much rather have seen Dons in finals than Carlscum. See you in 25.

 

[eth-dog]

Their game was in a very good spot for a portion of the year before their injuries gutted their chances.

Their major issue was scores from stoppages which also happens to be one of the easier sources to fix.
They just need some tinkering around the edges to get their balance right.

Times running out for them but they are in good shape in their current iteration.

The fact you think the clubs are even remotely similar is crazy

They leaked like a sieve most of the year, but their scoring power was so good that it didn't matter.

Their major issues were based on the fact that their defence is one of the worst in the league. And you can cry injuries all you want but their run of poor form started whilst all of their prime movers were there.

If you swapped Curnow and McKay for Wright and Caddy, what would the difference between the two clubs be? Those two key forwards still. Carlton hide the fact that their defence is terrible through their offensive power.

 

[Vindicater]

Sam Frost

8

Sam Frost

Age

31

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

191.6

3star

D

10.5

3star

K

6.3

3star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

191.6

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

out is a massive hit to Hawthorn.

A sentence I never thought I would say.

 

[Mercurial89]

They leaked like a sieve most of the year, but their scoring power was so good that it didn't matter.

Their major issues were based on the fact that their defence is one of the worst in the league. And you can cry injuries all you want but their run of poor form started whilst all of their prime movers were there.

If you swapped Curnow and McKay for Wright and Caddy, what would the difference between the two clubs be? Those two key forwards still. Carlton hide the fact that their defence is terrible through their offensive power.

Ok.

 

[boncer34]

They were on a heavy losing streak before the 2nd half of the Hawks game. That's when the injuries became abnormal. Their wins in almost 3 months of footy were Tiges, North and WCE. The key point made is the game is moving to even role players and Carlton's drops off. So they're more prone than others due to inconsistencies of the top % or injuries. They need to change or they will tread water on a fantasy.

30/6 - 25/8 = almost 3 months?