lommy
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Oppo Camp Opposition Watch
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It was more about re-uniting with his dad, but the ridiculous money obviously helped as well.
That would mean no Bear.
KaySwizzle
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I do love what Humphrey is bringing. But I loved watching Rankine too.
Ah well. Now Rankine is dead to me. Long live Humphrey!
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No Humphrey but could of had Ginbey
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'There's some emotion around it': Rankine tipped to fire against old side
Izak Rankine will play against his former club for the first time when Adelaide travels to play Gold Coast on Saturday
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Hope we win by ten goals
Just looking into the next month of footy, we have a huge opportunity if we can get on a roll and win our next 3 games. We face 2 teams below us (Blues & Hawks) and 1 that's a single win ahead of us (Crows) so it's definitely doable. The ladder logjam is massive at the moment with 9 teams placed 4th-12th all within 2 wins of each other right now:
4th - Demons 7W 4L 133.9%
5th - Saints 7W 4L 116.5%
6th - Bulldogs 7W 4L 106.9%
7th - Crows 6W 5L 108.7%
8th - Bombers 6W 5L 107.9%
--------------------------------------
9th - Dockers 6W 5L 102.3%
10th - Cats 5W 6L 118.1%
11th - Swans 5W 6L 101.2%
12th - Suns 5W 6L 97.2%
Round 12 (Three 8-point swing games)
Demons (4th) v Blues (13th)
Bulldogs (6th) v Cats (10th)
Suns (12th) v Crows (7th)
Bombers (8th) v Kangaroos (17th)
BYE - Dockers (9th), Saints (5th)
Round 13 (One 8-point swing games)
Swans (11th) v Saints (5th)
Bulldogs (6th) v Power (2nd)
Crows (7th) v Eagles (18th)
Dockers (9th) v Tigers (15th)
Blues (13th) v Bombers (8th)
Demons (4th) v Magpies (2nd)
BYE - Suns (12th), Cats (10th)
Round 14 (Zero 8-point swing games)
Power (2nd) v Cats (10th)
Lions (3rd) v Swans (11th)
Giants (14th) v Dockers (9th)
Tigers (15th) v Saints (5th)
Blues (13th) v Suns (12th)
Kangaroos (17th) v Bulldogs (6th)
BYE - Crows (7th), Bombers (8th), Demons (4th)
Round 15 (Two 8-point swing games)
Cats (10th) v Demons (4th)
Saints (5th) v Lions (3rd)
Swans (11th) v Eagles (17th)
Dockers (9th) v Bombers (8th)
Magpies (2nd) v Crows (7th)
Suns (12th) v Hawks (16th)
BYE - Bulldogs (6th)
I've italicised the 8 point swing games over the next four rounds as they have a big bearing on us. So let's just say for argument's sake that we win all 3 games of our upcoming games and all other games go according to current ladder positions, then the ladder will look like this going into round 16:
4th - Demons 9W 5L
5th - Saints 9W 5L
6th - Bombers 9W 5L
7th - Bulldogs 9W 5L
8th - Suns 8W 6L
----------------------------
9th - Dockers 8W 6L
10th - Crows 7W 7L
11th - Swans 6W 8L
12th - Giants 6W 8L
13th - Cats 5W 9L
So, as you can see, the next 3 games are really crucial for us in terms of being in a position to genuinely contend for a top 8 place this year. It's just such a crucial stretch where we absolutely have to keep winning while we have games against teams outside the top 4. It's predicted that 12-13 wins gets you into the top 8 this year so if we can get to 8 wins over the next month then we'll only need 4-5 wins in our last 9 games. Anyway, I won't go any further but you get the point - our next 3 games are very important.
4th - Demons 7W 4L 133.9%
5th - Saints 7W 4L 116.5%
6th - Bulldogs 7W 4L 106.9%
7th - Crows 6W 5L 108.7%
8th - Bombers 6W 5L 107.9%
--------------------------------------
9th - Dockers 6W 5L 102.3%
10th - Cats 5W 6L 118.1%
11th - Swans 5W 6L 101.2%
12th - Suns 5W 6L 97.2%
Round 12 (Three 8-point swing games)
Demons (4th) v Blues (13th)
Bulldogs (6th) v Cats (10th)
Suns (12th) v Crows (7th)
Bombers (8th) v Kangaroos (17th)
BYE - Dockers (9th), Saints (5th)
Round 13 (One 8-point swing games)
Swans (11th) v Saints (5th)
Bulldogs (6th) v Power (2nd)
Crows (7th) v Eagles (18th)
Dockers (9th) v Tigers (15th)
Blues (13th) v Bombers (8th)
Demons (4th) v Magpies (2nd)
BYE - Suns (12th), Cats (10th)
Round 14 (Zero 8-point swing games)
Power (2nd) v Cats (10th)
Lions (3rd) v Swans (11th)
Giants (14th) v Dockers (9th)
Tigers (15th) v Saints (5th)
Blues (13th) v Suns (12th)
Kangaroos (17th) v Bulldogs (6th)
BYE - Crows (7th), Bombers (8th), Demons (4th)
Round 15 (Two 8-point swing games)
Cats (10th) v Demons (4th)
Saints (5th) v Lions (3rd)
Swans (11th) v Eagles (17th)
Dockers (9th) v Bombers (8th)
Magpies (2nd) v Crows (7th)
Suns (12th) v Hawks (16th)
BYE - Bulldogs (6th)
I've italicised the 8 point swing games over the next four rounds as they have a big bearing on us. So let's just say for argument's sake that we win all 3 games of our upcoming games and all other games go according to current ladder positions, then the ladder will look like this going into round 16:
4th - Demons 9W 5L
5th - Saints 9W 5L
6th - Bombers 9W 5L
7th - Bulldogs 9W 5L
8th - Suns 8W 6L
----------------------------
9th - Dockers 8W 6L
10th - Crows 7W 7L
11th - Swans 6W 8L
12th - Giants 6W 8L
13th - Cats 5W 9L
So, as you can see, the next 3 games are really crucial for us in terms of being in a position to genuinely contend for a top 8 place this year. It's just such a crucial stretch where we absolutely have to keep winning while we have games against teams outside the top 4. It's predicted that 12-13 wins gets you into the top 8 this year so if we can get to 8 wins over the next month then we'll only need 4-5 wins in our last 9 games. Anyway, I won't go any further but you get the point - our next 3 games are very important.
lommy
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In my head I’m using a “loss tracker” we have 4 losses left…
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One week at a time
CanYouFeelTheSunburn
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Hope the boys really give him a hard time and get stuck into him. He’s lucky it’s up in the NT if it was at the bank he’d be facing a lot of booing and jeering.'There's some emotion around it': Rankine tipped to fire against old side
Izak Rankine will play against his former club for the first time when Adelaide travels to play Gold Coast on Saturday
Hope we win by ten goals
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We talked about it on the pod last night. I would almost go the opposite way, don't give him any reason to fire up, I worry if the lads get stuck into him that he may just put a clinic on.
lommy
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I hope someone puts him on his ass (fairly) none of this gang jumper punch bullshit though
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Fair enough but if you're going to look at it that way then that also means in the remaining 12 H&A fixtures the Swans & Cats only have 4 losses left, the Dockers, Bombers & Crows only have 5 losses left and the Dogs, Saints & Demons only have 6 losses left. Perhaps a better way of analysing the situation would be to look at the amount of top 8 teams each of those 6 in the ladder logjam face in the final 12 H&A rounds to get an idea of the likely amount of upcoming losses:
Remaining Top 8 H&A Games
4th Demons - 4 (1st Magpies, 5th Saints, 3rd Lions, 7th Crows)
5th Saints - 3 (3rd Lions, 4th Demons, 3rd Lions)
6th Bulldogs - 3 (2nd Power, 1st Magpies, 8th Bombers)
7th Crows - 4 (1st Magpies, 8th Bombers, 4th Demons, 2nd Power, 3rd Lions)
8th Bombers - 4 (2nd Power, 7th Crows, 6th Bulldogs, 1st Magpies)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9th Dockers - 5 (8th Bombers, 6th Bulldogs, 1st Magpies, 3rd Lions, 2nd Power)
10th Cats - 9 (6th Bulldogs, 2nd Power, 4th Demons, 8th Bombers, 3rd Lions, 2nd Power, 1st Magpies, 5th Saints, 6th Bulldogs)
11th Swans - 6 (5th Saints, 3rd Lions, 6th Bulldogs, 8th Bombers, 7th Crows, 4th Demons)
12th Suns - 6 (7th Crows, 1st Magpies, 2nd Power, 5th Saints, 3rd Lions, 7th Crows)
I get that 6 of our remain 12 against top 8 teams looks bad but keep in mind 2 of those games are against the Crows and if we beat Adelaide this week then there's a fair chance they drop out of the top 8 so then that number suddenly goes down to the 4 losses that lommy believes we can afford. I'd also point out that the game against the Saints at Heritage is potentially winnable for us as well. I won't comment on Collingwood, Port Adelaide or Brisbane games because they just seem insurmountable at this point, even though 2 of those games will be played at Heritage.
Just looking at the other teams, the first thing that immediately jumps out to me is that the reigning premiers Geelong are going to really struggle to qualify for the finals with the draw they have. The biggest takeaway though is that just looking at top 8 opponents can be deceiving because a game against the 9th placed Dockers is arguably just as tough (if not tougher) than the 8th placed Bombers. So if we go a step further and look at the amount of top 12 teams that those clubs above us face then it becomes: Demons - 6, Saints - 7, Bulldogs - 7, Crows - 7, Bombers - 7, Dockers - 7. So you can see these 8-point swing games are going to be crucial in the finals race because all the teams listed above (outside of the Demons) have too many potential losses against top 12 opposition to hit the magic 13 win number
tl;dr - we really need to beat the Crows this weekend to have a realistic shot at making the finals. Either that or we need to pull off a big upset later on.
MrJuicy
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- Oct 20, 2017
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only emotion he should have is embarrassment.'There's some emotion around it': Rankine tipped to fire against old side
Izak Rankine will play against his former club for the first time when Adelaide travels to play Gold Coast on Saturday
Hope we win by ten goals
Not sure how many people have seen this but Carlton sent Pittonet, Durdin and Hollands off for surgery today. Durdin and Hollands are guaranteed to miss at least 6 weeks and Pittonet may or may not be available for the game against us. Almost feels like Carlton have now thrown in the towel and given up on this season by sending several players in for surgery mid-season. They will also be missing Newman for the match against us in a little over a fortnight from now.
Opportunity awaits for us in our only MCG fixture this year against the Blues.
Geez
Not sure how many people have seen this but Carlton sent Pittonet, Durdin and Hollands off for surgery today. Durdin and Hollands are guaranteed to miss at least 6 weeks and Pittonet may or may not be available for the game against us. Almost feels like Carlton have now thrown in the towel and given up on this season by sending several players in for surgery mid-season. They will also be missing Newman for the match against us in a little over a fortnight from now.
Opportunity awaits for us in our only MCG fixture this year against the Blues.
Carlton had no choice but to send them for surgery. Like we had a choice with Miller.
lommy
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That is a lot more thought than I ever put into it. Actually feels good to know the task is just as hard for quite a few other clubs. But we still can’t afford any / many mid steps
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I reckon you've probably got 5-10 blokes on every list that could go in for minor surgery at any given time but most just play through the "niggles" and you'll often see at the end of a season a few players will go in for a "clean out" to fix any lingering issues once they have the proper amount of time to recover. It happened to Touk this year with the hamstring issue in the preseason but he still fronted up in round 1 and was noticeably less impactful in the 6 games he played for us this year before his most recent injury. We know Rowell played through Osteitis Pubis in 2021 and he was also noticeably more quiet that year when compared to his 2020 games.Geez
The Hollands and Durdin surgeries look unavoidable so I'll give you those but we often see guys playing with broken fingers so I'm not 100% convinced the Pittonet surgery was necessary. Especially given the two week recovery time frame. Maybe you see it differently and that's fine but it does seem like we'll be facing a weaker than normal Carlton side in a little over a fortnight from now.
I think there's all kinds of ways to interpret the data to make it seem easier/harder to make the finals but ultimately we sit with a 5W 6L record right now with 12 games to go so it's obvious that we need to win more games than we lose from here onward. I really think we're in a very similar position to the one we were in last year when we went into the round 12 knowing we needed to beat North in Darwin to get to an even 6-6 win-loss ledger. Having said that, it was actually the following game in round 14 against the Crows at Heritage that made me start to believe finals were possible as we secured a positive 7W 6L record and I'm viewing our round 14 fixture against Carlton this year in a very similar way. Then we've got another winnable game against Hawthorn at Heritage so it's not a stretch to say we should be 8-6 after round 15 IF we can find a way to beat the Crows this weekend.
Just my thoughts but I reckon I won't be the only one that starts to believe finals are potentially on the cards if we're 8-6 in 3.5 weeks from now.
Not sure which team we'd rather have win tonight. Carlton are our next opponents after Adelaide so I'd like them to be bereft of confidence going into the game against us, but at the same time Melbourne are just two wins ahead of us on the ladder right now so we can move within one win of the top 6 if they lose tonight and we win tomorrow.
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We can't lose to Carlton. Seriously.
Not sure why I'm confident but we will beat Blues and Crom.
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- Nov 4, 2019
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We beat them when we were rubbish, I’m sure we’ll be fine!
Grinds my gears that we were robbed in that Melbourne match
They truly are shit this year
They truly are shit this year
Love the confidence! St Kilda and Freo both have the bye this week so we're guaranteed to move equal with a top 8 team AND one win behind 6th if we get the W tomorrow night. That's a confidence building position to be in going into the bye and we start to create separation on middle of the ladder teams like Carlton. The next three against Adelaide, Carlton and Hawthorn are absolutely massive for us and the best part is all three are seemingly very winnable.
Helps when a blatant push in the back by Gawn in their Def50, and paid, helped the Blues tonight, although they couldn't get over the line, but sure would have helped us, but wasn't paid, deep in the 4th qtr when they played us...and we finished 5pts down...................and don't even consider firing me up on last weeks umpiring debacle......yes I'm looking at you Umpire #13............
