Restricted Free Agent Oscar Allen

[Rich01]

Hough, Reid x2, Hewett, Allen and Waterman will still be playing. Who knows how many others will come on but I'm very confident in Long and Maric also taking the next step.

Not much there apart from Harley.
I wasn’t even aware Archer Reid had played a game yet for the eagles. You think he’s going to be the next lynchpin in your side? The others are purely speculative as well.

I don’t see the likes of Gawn, Petracca, May, Lever, Viney there. Or Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia. Or Neale, Jo D, Andrews, Dunkley, McLugg.

Reckon last year was just about ground zero and if guys like Ginbey and Hewitt and be contributors that’s a win. As for the rest, I don’t see how you could be so confident they are going to be major players to drive the team to contend within half a decade.

Will take longer than that.

 

[Rich01]

Now, if I look at your club's list, the cupboard appears extremely bare. So why do you have so much confidence Richmond is travelling so well that they'll 'only' spend another 7 years before contending, especially when you highlighted how long it took for other clubs?

If you read my post you’d know I had doubts on that and perhaps they were viewed thru ‘rose coloured glasses’.

Much depends on our intake last year and next.

West Coasts rebuild will take just as long. Longer if they lose Harley.

Back to thread topic, I believe the best way to speed your rebuild up is to get another top five pick. I’d take Fred over Allan if that’s what Oscar netted you in FA.

But you guys are obviously all in in believing that Oscar can deliver you that success and should stay. I dont agree with your opinion but I acknowledge it and applaud your optimism.

 

[bzparkes]

Not much there apart from Harley.

Because you don't know the players. That's on you.

I wasn’t even aware Archer Reid had played a game yet for the eagles. You think he’s going to be the next lynchpin in your side? The others are purely speculative as well.

He's shown enough.

I don’t see the likes of Gawn, Petracca, May, Lever, Viney there. Or Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia. Or Neale, Jo D, Andrews, Dunkley, McLugg.

Rance played in 1 flag. Turns out you didn't even need him.

Ruckman are overrated, hence Gawn being the only elite ruck to actually win a flag since Cox in 2006.

By mentioning May, Lever, Prestia, Neale, Jo D and Dunkley, you're actively proving my point.

They are all trades

Thanks for agreeing.

Reckon last year was just about ground zero and if guys like Ginbey and Hewitt and be contributors that’s a win. As for the rest, I don’t see how you could be so confident they are going to be major players to drive the team to contend within half a decade.

Will take longer than that.

Again, you're only looking at the draft, up above, you've unwittingly agreed with me that premiership sides need to trade players in.

Go figure.

The draft should be used to bring in the most elite players if your team, because it's too expensive to trade, although FA has changed this.

It should also be there to bolster the squad with role players and depth.

Trading is for plugging holes.

Now, tell my why Richmond will content in 7, when you're starting from where we were around 2 years ago.

 

[Rich01]

.

Now, tell my why Richmond will content in 7, when you're starting from where we were around 2 years ago.

For a team that started their rebuild two years before us there’s pretty much just Harley to speak of. Not really much to brag about. Especially if he leaves.

Both clubs pretty much on par for a long time before contending. West Coast fans who think it will be within 5 years I believe are delusional

But perhaps they decide to not bottom out and keep playing their fading stars til they can give no more. The north strategy from the mid 2010s. Not sure that will lead to ultimate success. But it means that you can keep Allan as he will be key to getting the required 10-12 wins each year to middle out.
They will have to trade ultra aggressively to the detriment of draft picks. Perhaps this is Clarkes vision after all. Recruiting role players like Owies, Baker and Graham do help support this theory.

 

[bzparkes]

For a team that started their rebuild two years before us there’s pretty much just Harley to speak of. Not really much to brag about. Especially if he leaves.

Same could be said for any club but just because Harley's the only player you know, doesn't mean there aren't others coming through.

I mean, if we've only got one notable player(according to you), then Richmond have zero and are starting from even further back.

Both clubs pretty much on par for a long time before contending. West Coast fans who think it will be within 5 years I believe are delusional

I don't. Our core group isn't going to be stuck at 18 years old for the next 5 years.

More delusional not to expect significant improvement in 5 years' time, IMO.

Same for Richmond.

But perhaps they decide to not bottom out and keep playing their fading stars til they can give no more. The north strategy from the mid 2010s. Not sure that will lead to ultimate success. But it means that you can keep Allan as he will be key to getting the required 10-12 wins each year to middle out.

It's clear you don't really know anything about our list. We've already turned over half of it since 2021.

I mean, we could've had a fire sale and shipped out all our seniors and set ourselves back even further, like Richmond just did, but I like how the club backed itself in to improve in other ways than the tried and failed methods of hack 'n slashing the senior players and hoping it all works out for you, like we've seen many other clubs do in the past.

They will have to trade ultra aggressively to the detriment of draft picks.

No, they don't.

Also, you're overrating draft picks here, which is peak Bigfooty nuffie.

Would you rather a top 5 draft pick, or a peak 24 year old Chad Warner, as an example?

One's a known quantity who's probably a top 20 player in the game.

The other is completely unknown and could be a complete bust.

I daresay coaches and list managers would rather deal in the known, than take a punt on the unknown.

Let's say, as an example, he costs us our first and second rounders this year, should he request a trade.

The average career of a pick in the 30s is 4 years on a list, if they're lucky.

Warner's already a proven elite midfielder and with natural improvement from guys like Reid and Hewett, as well as the additions of Baker and Graham to assist with the rotations, suddenly things look significantly better than when we only had Yeo, Kelly and Reid(Hewett injured all last year) playing as mids, with a few stopgaps.

Perhaps this is Clarkes vision after all. Recruiting role players like Owies, Baker and Graham do help support this theory.

Owies cost pick 63 and Graham was a FA. Again, this does little to support your argument and in fact, further supports mine.

Also, in regards to 'Clarke's vision, this has all been stated by Pyke that the mandate is to improve the list to contend as quickly as possible by any means necessary. The draft will be prioritzed but other methods won't be ignored.

 

[rye]

cant wait to see oscar allen in brisbane colours

 

[eaglevision]

cant wait to see oscar allen in brisbane colours

What do you think you’d need to do for us not to match an offer?

 

[Rich01]

cant wait to see oscar allen in brisbane colours

Why wouldn’t he go there if they given him the cash? Chance to nab a flag 4 years before the Eagles do.

 

[bzparkes]

Why wouldn’t he go there if they given him the cash? Chance to nab a flag 4 years before the Eagles do.

More's the point of why would he go there, when he'll likely get the same money to stay at home and captain the club he's supported his entire life?

Looking at it pragmatically though, it would be in WCE's best interests for him to actually take up a FA offer. Would give us additional capital to trade for the Chad, whilst retaining a top 5 pick and taking one of Rodriguez/Sharpe(depending on how this season goes, obviously).

We have plenty of talls coming through, so losing Oz for draft capital would be good business, albeit a lot of fans would probably be upset if he were to move.

 

[eaglevision]

More's the point of why would he go there, when he'll likely get the same money to stay at home and captain the club he's supported his entire life?

Looking at it pragmatically though, it would be in WCE's best interests for him to actually take up a FA offer. Would give us additional capital to trade for the Chad, whilst retaining a top 5 pick and taking one of Rodriguez/Sharpe(depending on how this season goes, obviously).

We have plenty of talls coming through, so losing Oz for draft capital would be good business, albeit a lot of fans would probably be upset if he were to move.

If we turned Oscar into Sharp, Rodriguez or Warner I’d be fine with that but essentially means we’d need to finish bottom two which I’m not so keen on.

 

[Rich01]

Looking at it pragmatically though, it would be in WCE's best interests for him to actually take up a FA offer. Would give us additional capital to trade for the Chad, whilst retaining a top 5 pick and taking one of Rodriguez/Sharpe(depending on how this season goes, obviously).

We have plenty of talls coming through, so losing Oz for draft capital would be good business, albeit a lot of fans would probably be upset if he were to move.

No shit. That’s what I’ve been saying all along. He won’t be there when you next contend.

If you can get Warner or Fred for him because of it you do it in a heartbeat.
Take the longer route and pick up the more elite, younger talent.

 

[bzparkes]

No shit. That’s what I’ve been saying all along. He won’t be there when you next contend.

If you can get Warner or Fred for him because of it you do it in a heartbeat.
Take the longer route and pick up the more elite, younger talent.

He could very well be there when we next contend. We don't know. None of us are fortune tellers.

Most thought we'd be fancies for the wooden spoon in '18, after all.

Plenty thought we'd be down the bottom for years after Judd & Cousins left but we ended up making a prelim the year after winning the spoon.

Having Oz move on would be acceptable because we have plenty of talent in his position behind him who will be around for longer.

Still, JK was 31 when we won in '18 and Oscar would be the same age if we're contending in 5 years, so it's a bit of a moot point.

We're simply luck we have those key forward posts covered with young talent for now, who look more than capable of stepping up to the level, at present.

If we didn't, this wouldn't be much of a discussion.

 

[WCE777]

He could very well be there when we next contend. We don't know. None of us are fortune tellers.

Most thought we'd be fancies for the wooden spoon in '18, after all.

Plenty thought we'd be down the bottom for years after Judd & Cousins left but we ended up making a prelim the year after winning the spoon.

Having Oz move on would be acceptable because we have plenty of talent in his position behind him who will be around for longer.

Still, JK was 31 when we won in '18 and Oscar would be the same age if we're contending in 5 years, so it's a bit of a moot point.

We're simply luck we have those key forward posts covered with young talent for now, who look more than capable of stepping up to the level, at present.

If we didn't, this wouldn't be much of a discussion.

There are probably some non negotiables in forty clubs.
Don't trade elite KPF of Oscar quality, don't trade KPD of Gov quality, they are too hard to produce/draft/trade.
Don't trade your captain!
Not at this stage would I even think about trading Oscar, you talk about our KPF we have heaps of and this is true, but they are all young and 21 and under, JW is 21 and played 29 games who would be next up, absolute madness to trade a player like Oscar in 2025.
If JW or someone else pushes him out or can replace him in 2 years time I would look at it but you don't trade out proven players like that until you can replace them.

 

[bzparkes]

There are probably some non negotiables in forty clubs.
Don't trade elite KPF of Oscar quality, don't trade KPD of Gov quality, they are too hard to produce/draft/trade.
Don't trade your captain!
Not at this stage would I even think about trading Oscar, you talk about our KPF we have heaps of and this is true, but they are all young and 21 and under, JW is 21 and played 29 games who would be next up, absolute madness to trade a player like Oscar in 2025.
If JW or someone else pushes him out or can replace him in 2 years time I would look at it but you don't trade out proven players like that until you can replace them.

I think you may have missed the point that Oscar hasn't re-signed and that he's a free agent this year.

I don't think anyone's advocating trading him out but if he leaves of his own volition, then we have players coming up to play the position and the return would also help us moving forward.

 

[WCE777]

I think you may have missed the point that Oscar hasn't re-signed and that he's a free agent this year.

I don't think anyone's advocating trading him out but if he leaves of his own volition, then we have players coming up to play the position and the return would also help us moving forward.

Yes I did know he is FA this year, trade/let him go as FA I was meaning the same thing.
You don't let players of that quality go in their prime, what you lose you can't replace, can't gut the team of a KPF of his quality.
That's my point, if in 3 years time someone else can step right in and replace him I would look at it but not now.
Barrass style trade if we are still miles off contending and need an elite talent would be my play.

 

[bzparkes]

Yes I did know he is FA this year, trade/let him go as FA I was meaning the same thing.
You don't let players of that quality go in their prime, what you lose you can't replace, can't gut the team of a KPF of his quality.
That's my point, if in 3 years time someone else can step right in and replace him I would look at it but not now.
Barrass style trade if we are still miles off contending and need an elite talent would be my play.

The issue is, we don't really have a choice if he decides to take up FA. That's ultimately up to him.

I'd happily keep him but it wouldn't be like losing, say, peak JK to FA with only Jarrod Brander coming up behind him.

 

[WCE777]

The issue is, we don't really have a choice if he decides to take up FA. That's ultimately up to him.

I'd happily keep him but it wouldn't be like losing, say, peak JK to FA with only Jarrod Brander coming up behind him.

Still don't see it happening

 

[Purple Suit]

I’m not sure why you are trying to make this thread about the tigers.

But I don’t see our list three years behind West Coasts. And yes I think our window will open in about seven years if and only if our top end draft picks this year and next turn out to be guns. That makes them 24-25, which still may be too young for a core group to contend. That may even be my ‘rose coloured glasses’ you refer to.

Our last window opened in 2017 after bottoming out in 2009. Even then we had a few guns in the side. 8 years.

Melbournes opened in 2020 after bottoming out in 2009. 11 years. North bottomed out in 2018 and are still miles off it.

Carlton began their rebuild in 2015 and are now contending. Brisbane took a similar amount of time (started 2014 and won the flag 10 years later).

So yeah these things take time.

Looking at your last three drafts I don’t see the top end talent in the key positions required to build the core for a flag. And take Harley out and the cupboard is particularly bare. It won’t be 5 years Bean.

I think you are spot on here. The landscape has changed and teams can't turn it around like they use to due to the soft cap, increased competition and general AFL inequities. There are also 18 teams so if you spend 10 years out of contention and 8 years in it and it was equal, every team would win a flag every 18 years.

These are the teams who have bottom out in the past 15 years and if they have com back to contend

2009 - Melbourne - 2019-23
2010 - WC - 2015-20
2011 - GC - Nope
2012 - GWS - 2016-24
2013 - GWS - as above
2014 - St Kilda - Nope
2015 - Carlton - 2023
2016 - Essendon - Nope
2017 - Brisbane - 2020-24+
2018 - Carlton - 2023
2019 - GC - Nope
2020 - Adelaide - Nope
2021 - North - Nope
2022 - North - Nope
2023 - WC - ?
2024 - Richmond - ?

So WC & Brisbane are the only ones to come back from a spoon and win it. To be fair, Brisbane were already on the improve and had so many years at the bottom masked by expansion teams & cheats. It still took them 7 years after a spoon to win a flag and WC are definitely behind them in terms of list build.

Allen won't be around for WC's next flag going off that data set.