Discussion Paddy v Petracca

[George]

I think you nailed it in your first sentence. Its not the spine that's important. Its your midfield! That stat you showed highlights exactly the point of my argument.

The team that wins a grand final is always the one with a better midfield on the day.

If that wasn't the case then you would see Sydney beating Hawthorn with buddy. You would see hawthorn beating swans when they had buddy.

The 195cm you mentioned shows exactly what I mean. Those 195cm forwards are agile. They cover ground. Theyre not like mccartin. Mccartin is undersized and slow with literally no tank!!!!

Uhh, it is the spine that's important. You could have 22 midfielders out there, if you have no structure or marking players you will lose every game. Having quality at key posts (FB-CHB-C-CHF-FF) is what most great sides have. The reason the Eagles won in 2018 was because of their spine. Richmond with Rance-Grimes-Martin-Lynch-Riewoldt. Look at most premiership winning sides and you'll see they have quality across the key posts. And in 2014, Carlisle-Goddard-Steven-Riewoldt-McCartin was the envy of most sides in the competition, despite what we may think six years on as things changed.

If you took any notice of McCartin in his TAC Cup year with the Falcons you'd see how dominant he was. In a game against Gippsland he kicked 6.4 from 10 marks and 17 touches. He kicked 5 goals as a bottom age player in the national championships. He was the best tall forward of the draft. If he wasn't suited to the modern game as you say, nobody would've picked him up. Nobody. So the fact he was rated #1 of the forwards shows that everyone with knowledge of the draft knew he could play at the professional level.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Funny thing is we found it easier to find gun KPP talent than we have in finding a gun mid.

Despite it apparently being harder to find the gun KPP talent.

Carlisle Marshall King Membrey Howard Wilkie

To what: Steele.

As a club we have always been good at finding tall timber,

 

[Joffaboy]

It's funny the way opposition supporters and the media see Petracca. He came 4th in our B&F last year and kicked over 20 goals. He wasn't great and we were a bottom two team, but he had some good games; albeit you wouldn't see him for a quarter or a half. Prior to this year he averaged 19 disposals and a goal per game. Not too shabby, but we all knew he had more if he could get fit.

Then I look at Cam Rayner, a former pick one and wonder how he flies under the radar. Nearing the end of year 3 with almost 60 games under his belt and he averages 11 disposals and under a goal per game. He's cut the type of slack that was never afforded the ''disappointing'' Petracca, who performed much better from day one (kicked 26 goals in year 2).

I'm not knocking Rayner and have come to realise it's a Melbourne thing.

With Watts, Scully going (talk about a bog ordinary player), Trengove, Morton, etc. Melbourne players have become fair game. I kind of get it.

We're a flaky club with flaky players and the subsequent commentary follows.

Good lucky to Rayner. He gets a free pass, because he doesn't play for Melbourne.

This is true for the "unsuccessful" clubs like Melbourne and St,Kilda and until recently Bulldogs and Richmond. Look at Essendon, their draft picks are so overrated by their media propaganda unit that every year their stars are propelling them to be a top four team.

Also Rayner has been shielded by being in Brisbane and Brisbane going north on the ladder while Melbourne has been poor, looked great in 2018 and then have struggled again.

Anyway can we have Brayshaw or Oliver please?

 

[Trav 20]

This is true for the "unsuccessful" clubs like Melbourne and St,Kilda and until recently Bulldogs and Richmond. Look at Essendon, their draft picks are so overrated by their media propaganda unit that every year their stars are propelling them to be a top four team.

Also Rayner has been shielded by being in Brisbane and Brisbane going north on the ladder while Melbourne has been poor, looked great in 2018 and then have struggled again.

Anyway can we have Brayshaw or Oliver please?

Very true about Essendon. Very overrated some of their players.

I'd trade Brayshaw, so yes, you can have him. He can be a bloody good player, but he's best as an insider and he doesn't currently get as much time there as he'd like.

If he does leave I can see him becoming very good with the right club.

That said, I'm kind of hoping he stays and gets his head right with us.

 

[Mowman]

Very true about Essendon. Very overrated some of their players.

I'd trade Brayshaw, so yes, you can have him. He can be a bloody good player, but he's best as an insider and he doesn't currently get as much time there as he'd like.

If he does leave I can see him becoming very good with the right club.

That said, I'm kind of hoping he stays and gets his head right with us.

Thats what we need an inside mid
I liked to have him at the Saints

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

None of them have done it this bad. Atleast not in the professional era.

really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...

 

[gringo2011]

Thought Serng was garbage last night

I only watched 10 minutes of it, he's been a gun this year. Should win the rising star award.

 

[George]

really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...

Wow some absolute shockers in there haha

 

[StCicatriz]

really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...

now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3

 

[gringo2011]

really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...

Sam Docherty is a super star apart from the knee injuries. Polec is still A grade too. A shit load of those guys were injury busts too.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Wow some absolute shockers in there haha

but its only St Kilda that stuff up early picks ...

 

[gringo2011]

This is true for the "unsuccessful" clubs like Melbourne and St,Kilda and until recently Bulldogs and Richmond. Look at Essendon, their draft picks are so overrated by their media propaganda unit that every year their stars are propelling them to be a top four team.

Also Rayner has been shielded by being in Brisbane and Brisbane going north on the ladder while Melbourne has been poor, looked great in 2018 and then have struggled again.

Anyway can we have Brayshaw or Oliver please?

Essendon have a good list they are mentally broken from their cheating program. There is no way that their list should not be playing finals. They have a shit coach and have had bad injury luck but they find ways to lose it seems.

 

[George]

now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3

Give it a go st_trav_ofWA , would be interesting to see if any player selected at 1 has done less than McCartin.

 

[StCicatriz]

but its only St Kilda that stuff up early picks ...

things that no one said ever.

 

[gringo2011]

but its only St Kilda that stuff up early picks ...

A fair few we had on our books.

 

[StCicatriz]

Give it a go st_trav_ofWA , would be interesting to see if any player selected at 1 has done less than McCartin.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3

so we got ...

now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3

1990​	Stephen Hooper	Geelong	East Perth	WAFL
1991​	John Hutton	Brisbane Bears	Claremont	WAFL
1992​	Drew Banfield	West Coast Eagles	Subiaco	WAFL
1993​	Darren Gaspar	Sydney	South Fremantle	WAFL
1994​	Jeff White	Fremantle	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
1995​	Clive Waterhouse	Fremantle	Port Adelaide Magpies	SANFL
1996​	Michael Gardiner	West Coast Eagles	Claremont	WAFL
1997​	Travis Johnstone	Melbourne	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
1998​	Des Headland	Brisbane Lions	Subiaco	WAFL
1999​	Josh Fraser	Collingwood	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup
2000​	Nick Riewoldt	St Kilda	Southport Sharks	QAFL
2001​	Luke Hodge	Hawthorn	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup
2002​	Brendon Goddard	St Kilda	Gippsland Power	TAC Cup
2003​	Adam Cooney	Western Bulldogs	West Adelaide	SANFL
2004​	Brett Deledio	Richmond	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup
2005​	Marc Murphy	Carlton	Oakleigh Chargers	TAC Cup
2006​	Bryce Gibbs	Carlton	Glenelg	SANFL
2007​	Matthew Kreuzer	Carlton	Northern Knights	TAC Cup
2008​	Jack Watts	Melbourne	Sandringham Dragons	TAC Cup
2009​	Tom Scully	Melbourne	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
2010​	David Swallow	Gold Coast	East Fremantle Football Club	WAFL
2011​	Jonathon Patton	Greater Western Sydney	Eastern Ranges	TAC Cup
2012​	Lachie Whitfield	Greater Western Sydney	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
2013​	Tom Boyd	Greater Western Sydney	Eastern Ranges	TAC Cup
2014​	Paddy McCartin	St Kilda	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup
2015​	Jacob Weitering	Carlton	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
2016​	Andrew McGrath	Essendon	Sandringham Dragons	TAC Cup
2017​	Cameron Rayner	Brisbane Lions	Western Jets	TAC Cup
2018​	Sam Walsh	Carlton	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup
2019​	Matthew Rowell	Gold Coast	Oakleigh Chargers	NAB League

Patton was a dud, Boyd was a dud, Paddy was a dud , Waterhouse a dud, Fraser a dud, Hooper a dud, Hutton a dud....

 

[StCicatriz]

also worth looking at Trouts draft record... also worth noting years of tenure for Libba, who eventually takes over.

the more seasoned Libba gets i reckon the better the strike rate gets, but that's just a guess.

 

[George]

View attachment 952113

Jack Watts stands out there.

Two different discussions on McCartin's output for a #1 pick to if it was the right call for us or not. Still interesting to have a look at.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Sam Docherty is a super star apart from the knee injuries. Polec is still A grade too. A sh*t load of those guys were injury busts too.

Polec came good at his third club but was a dud pick for the lions ....
and of course injury busts are going to be counted i mean the reason Paddy was such a bust was because of injury as well ... thats the whole point its a stab in the dark that hopefully maybe th kid that gets picked turns out somewhat ok ...

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

A fair few we had on our books.

about the industry average if you look at it closely ... but because we live and breath our club we obviously notice it more

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Jack Watts stands out there.

Two different discussions on McCartin's output for a #1 pick to if it was the right call for us or not. Still interesting to have a look at.

Watts was thrown to the wolves and was the wrong pick for Melbourne.

Nic Nat would have still been a gun imo but Watts would have been far better going to West Coast.

 

[StCicatriz]

so we got ...

1990​	Stephen Hooper	Geelong	East Perth	WAFL
1991​	John Hutton	Brisbane Bears	Claremont	WAFL
1992​	Drew Banfield	West Coast Eagles	Subiaco	WAFL
1993​	Darren Gaspar	Sydney	South Fremantle	WAFL
1994​	Jeff White	Fremantle	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
1995​	Clive Waterhouse	Fremantle	Port Adelaide Magpies	SANFL
1996​	Michael Gardiner	West Coast Eagles	Claremont	WAFL
1997​	Travis Johnstone	Melbourne	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
1998​	Des Headland	Brisbane Lions	Subiaco	WAFL
1999​	Josh Fraser	Collingwood	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup
2000​	Nick Riewoldt	St Kilda	Southport Sharks	QAFL
2001​	Luke Hodge	Hawthorn	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup
2002​	Brendon Goddard	St Kilda	Gippsland Power	TAC Cup
2003​	Adam Cooney	Western Bulldogs	West Adelaide	SANFL
2004​	Brett Deledio	Richmond	Murray Bushrangers	TAC Cup
2005​	Marc Murphy	Carlton	Oakleigh Chargers	TAC Cup
2006​	Bryce Gibbs	Carlton	Glenelg	SANFL
2007​	Matthew Kreuzer	Carlton	Northern Knights	TAC Cup
2008​	Jack Watts	Melbourne	Sandringham Dragons	TAC Cup
2009​	Tom Scully	Melbourne	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
2010​	David Swallow	Gold Coast	East Fremantle Football Club	WAFL
2011​	Jonathon Patton	Greater Western Sydney	Eastern Ranges	TAC Cup
2012​	Lachie Whitfield	Greater Western Sydney	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
2013​	Tom Boyd	Greater Western Sydney	Eastern Ranges	TAC Cup
2014​	Paddy McCartin	St Kilda	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup
2015​	Jacob Weitering	Carlton	Dandenong Stingrays	TAC Cup
2016​	Andrew McGrath	Essendon	Sandringham Dragons	TAC Cup
2017​	Cameron Rayner	Brisbane Lions	Western Jets	TAC Cup
2018​	Sam Walsh	Carlton	Geelong Falcons	TAC Cup
2019​	Matthew Rowell	Gold Coast	Oakleigh Chargers	NAB League

Patton was a dud, Boyd was a dud, Paddy was a dud , Waterhouse a dud, Fraser a dud, Hooper a dud, Hutton a dud....

anything pre 2000 can't compare to 2014. hell even 2004 isn't compareable to 2014. you are probably wondering why?

because access to talent review and spotting was just so damn inferior. for example on the various draft podcasts they have had list managers or or those who worked in the industry explain what it was like to identify players back in the day.

for example even Xavier Clark was picked off the back of a VHS video that was like and i quote "you were watching FIFA where you had the cheat codes".

fast forward to 2014 and you have games literally coded for you by champion data. you have people performing modelling now. you have teams of recruiters. you have every games footage.

now you have an emphasis on U16 and U17 footy, given future trading. so that talent identification has gone back further.

so that scrubs off the list fraser (200+ games), waterhouse (190+ games), Hooper + Hutton (90s jeebus that far back).

now on Boyd and Patton. Boyd got GWS picks Pick 6 and Griffen. Patton still got them 89 games and 130 goals and then a 4th round pick.

in comparison Paddy got us 35 games and 34 goals and no trade renumeration.

in fact he'd be very close to the least number of games played for a pick 1.

 

[StCicatriz]

Jack Watts stands out there.

Two different discussions on McCartin's output for a #1 pick to if it was the right call for us or not. Still interesting to have a look at.

you reckon?

i actually thought Jack Watts started to play some good footy for melbourne before he was traded.

but anyways he still produced a 150 games and 143 goals. then got them pick 31.

far exceeds Paddy's output.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Jack Watts stands out there.

Two different discussions on McCartin's output for a #1 pick to if it was the right call for us or not. Still interesting to have a look at.

look i dont think anyone would argue Paddy was a bust of a number one pick he obviously was but ill say our strick rate of picking dud players is well on par with every other club .. i mean no one talks about Patrick Veszpremi being taken before Cyril Rioli .... no one talks about Cale Morton being taken before Dangerfield...
no one mentions Chris Yarren taken before Jack Ziebel or Aycee Cordy being picked over Luke Shuey
Trengrove over Dusty , Christian Howard,Jasper McMillan-Pittard, dan menzel, Luke tapscott, ben griffiths all taken befor Fyfe
Gorringe taken before Tom Lynch!!

EVERY club makes massive stuff ups in drafting our stuff ups are not and worse or any better than any other clubs stuff ups