Summer Paris 2024 - Swimming

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I will update this post with useful links,

https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/swimming

https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024


World Aquatics Paris page



World Aquatics Paris Swimming page








 
Swimswam's first 3 previews. They give 2 of the events to Aussies. They go thru a breakdown of each main swimmer for each event but I will just copy and past their verdict and top 8 picks.



Women's 200 IM.


SWIMSWAM’S PICKS​

Deciding between McKeown, Douglass, and McIntosh felt like splitting hairs, but we ultimately went with McKeown because of how well-rounded her race is — she doesn’t have to worry about one stroke messing her mojo up in the way that it would for her competitors. In addition, she also knows how to pull through in close races, as shown through her backstroke battles with Regan Smith where she’s won almost every single time. However, all three of these swimmers could emerge as the winner in a tightly-contested battle. So could Walsh, whom we put at fourth solely because she hasn’t been at the same level as the top three seeds recently, but could still pull off an upset.

If there’s one thing that’s certain though, it’s that this event has gotten so much faster since Tokyo. Ohashi’s winning time from then (2:08.52) would rank eighth in the World right now, while Douglass’s bronze medal time (2:09.04) likely would not even final this year.

RANKINGSWIMMERCOUNTRYSEASON BESTLIFETIME BEST
1Kaylee McKeownAustralia2:06.632:06.63
2Kate DouglassUnited States2:06.792:06.79
3Summer McIntoshCanada2:07.062:06.89
4Alex WalshUnited States2:07.632:07.13
5Yu YitingChina2:07.752:07.75
6Marrit SteenbergenNetherlands2:08.912:08.91
7Sydney PickremCanada2:07.682:07.68
8Yui OhashiJapan2:09.172:07.91


Men's 400m Free.


THE VERDICT​

After a few surprising winners taking advantage of wide open fields, it seems like some order has been established in the men’s 400 freestyle. It’s hard to see anyone breaking into the upper echelon of talent that Märtens, Short, Winnginton, and Kim have established (plus Hafnaoui if he’s there). But then again, that’s the point of an upset, right?

But even if there isn’t an upset, there’s still plenty of room for surprise in this race. It should certainly be an exciting race between the top four, with other swimmers like Costa, Klemet, and Auboeck looking to break up the party. And given the times that we’ve seen in the last year, maybe the surprise won’t be the podium but the times that they throw down–do we need to be on world record watch for the very first final of the meet?

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS​

PLACENAMENATIONSEASON BESTLIFETIME BEST
1Sam ShortAustralia3:41.643:40.68
2Lukas MärtensGermany3:40.333:40.33
3Kim Woo-minSouth Korea3:42.423:42.42
4Elijah WinningtonAustralia3:41.413:41.22
5Guilherme CostaBrazil3:44.223:43.31
6Oliver KlemetGermany3:42.813:42.81
7Felix AuboeckAustria3:43.243:43.24
8Lucas HenveauxBelgium3:44.613:44.61
Dark Horse: Ahmed Jaouadi (Tunisia)


Men's 100m Back


THE VERDICT

Ceccon, Murphy, and Armstrong have been the three on the podium at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships. They arrive in Paris as the favorites for the podium and that’s likely where they’ll find themselves at the end of the final. Your mileage on the exact order likely varies by how much weight you put on factors like the distance between Ceccon’s personal best versus the rest of the field and Murphy’s consistency. We’ve decided to pencil Ceccon in for the gold but there’s certainly a case to be made for all three.

Xu is the best pick to disrupt the top three: he’s experienced, he’s got the hardware, and he’s shown himself to be on form this season.

Given how many times we’ve seen in the 52-high to 53-low range already this season, there will likely be a huge fight to make the final. The name of the game for all these swimmers: break 53 in the semifinals or don’t have the highest 53 low. There are several swimmers in this field that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven’t been able to put it together at the opportune moment. If at least one of them figures it out in Paris, there could be a major shake up.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS​

PLACENAMENATIONSEASON BESTLIFETIME BEST
1Thomas CecconItaly52.2751.60
2Ryan MurphyUnited States52.2251.85
3Hunter ArmstrongUnited States52.6851.98
4Xu JiayuChina52.0551.86
5Apostolos ChristouGreece52.2352.09
6Hugo GonzalezSpain52.7052.70
7Yohann Ndoye-BrouardFrance52.9052.50
8Ksawery MasiukPoland53.0952.58
Dark Horse: Oleksandr Zheltyakov (Ukraine)
 

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Adam Petty's long term coach Mel Marshall will leave her coaching job in the UK and head to Griffith University Swim Club on the Gold Coast and take over from long time club and Aussie coach coach Michael Bol.


Rob Woodhouse, CEO of Swimming Australia, said in a statement:

“Swimming Australia is committed to best practice, and this includes our coaching appointments. Mel Marshall is highly respected globally, including in Australia where she has brought her team out for training camps for many years.
“Mel’s coaching successes speak for themselves, and we’re delighted that she will be coaching in Australia in the future. I know Mel will also be fantastic in developing the skills of many of the outstanding young female and male coaches here in Australia.
“Additionally, we want the best coaches in the world working with our best talent to develop our current and emerging talent ahead of the LA Olympics and Mel ticks all these boxes.
“But for now our focus is on the Paris Olympics.”

Bol anniounced his retirement of some sort as will take at least 12 months off, a couple of days before the trials started.

 

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