Summer Paris 2024 - Swimming

[AdelaideGT]

Can't wait for 7pm (and 4.30am)

W400 Free - likely Gold & WR
M400 Free - likely two medals & possible WR
W4x100 Free - likely Gold & possible WR
M4x100 Free - likely medal

Our medal tally should be off to a decent start by 6am tomorrow.

NBC will have to juggle their medal graphic to show the US on top somehow.

 

[sideswipe]

Nobody is unbeatable but she's won gold before and is swimming even better, will take something special to get past her.

It's not like say pumping up say a world record holder but unproven under OG pressure.

She is way too short at $1.30. McIntosh set a WR at 16. She is now only 17 and she hasn’t really been tested this year. She set the 2024 WL at the Canadian trials.

Titmus is a fierce competitor and is rightly favourite but McIntosh is a good bet at 3.60


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[Tadpole]

Keeping a lid on it.

 

[AdelaideGT]

Final SwimSwam predictions:

2024 Olympic Games: Official SwimSwam Preview Index

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swimswam.com

MEDAl TALLY

AUS 11/04/05 (20)
USA 10/14/09 (33)
CHN 04/02/02 (08)

 

[AdelaideGT]

She is way too short at $1.30. McIntosh set a WR at 16. She is now only 17 and she hasn’t really been tested this year.

a) who cares about betting?
b) no top swimmer has really been tested in racing this year

 

[sideswipe]

a) who cares about betting?
b) no top swimmer has really been tested in racing this year

Odds are an indicator of “expectation”, for want of a better(pun intended) word. That Titmus is that short against McIntosh is out of whack. McIntosh should be on an upward path of improvement. It promises to be a great race.


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[Sydney Kicker]

Can't wait for 7pm (and 4.30am)

W400 Free - likely Gold & WR
M400 Free - likely two medals & possible WR
W4x100 Free - likely Gold & possible WR
M4x100 Free - likely medal

Our medal tally should be off to a decent start by 6am tomorrow.

NBC will have to juggle their medal graphic to show the US on top somehow.

W400 Free - be shocked if Titmus loses this one. Ledecky's ceiling these days is probably mid to high 3:57. McIntosh will have one big disadvantage in that she'll have to put in a solid heat swim. When she got the WR it was off the back of a very leisurely qualifier in the Canadian trials. While she could possibly go 3:55 in the final I don't expect it. The others in the field have a ceiling around 3:59 which gives a big margin of error. So Titmus unless she is sick or Summer does something absolutely otherworldly. Not going to make a WR prediction until we see if the pool is indeed a bit slow (or not).

M400 Free - Martens the favorite and expecting him to win. Short has a good shot but I expect his poor preparation (illness at trials) will see him just fall short (ha ha). He needs to be at 99% or 100% to beat Martens at his best. However if Martens is just a tad off his best either of the Aussies could take it. Silver and Bronze or silver and 4th for mine.

W4x100 - Absolute lock unless we get DQed. It could be close if a couple of Aussies are off their best and a few US swimmers take a big leap. Someone like Gretchen Walsh should be much better in the 100 free than her PB suggests. But even if the US overperform and we underperform it's unlikely to matter - it will just make it closer. Would be shocked to see a WR though. The swim at Worlds last year was insane.

M4x100 - Likely Bronze or 4th. Really worried about Chalmers. He's a great big occasion performer but his recent injury issues will make it less likely he can come home in one of those crazy 46s relay splits. For me that makes the difference between us being a good outside chance for gold and needing a miracle to win. US is too deep and Pan will give China too much of a head start to reel them in. We could win but everything would have to go perfectly.

 

[AdelaideGT]

Not going to make a WR prediction until we see if the pool is indeed a bit slow (or not).

It's a temporary ('dropped in') pool like the US trials and they are usually the fastest.

Unlike the 40yr old Chandler pool we used for our trials.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

It's a temporary ('dropped in') pool like the US trials and they are usually the fastest.

Unlike the 40yr old Chandler pool we used for our trials.

Yeah I know but it's also shallower than recommended for a fast pool (2.1 meters deep I think). That can potentially slow things a bit.

 

[AdelaideGT]

(2.1 meters deep I think)

Still deeper than Chandler. So our swimmers may go a bit faster and Yanks might go a lot slower (with similar results to trials).

 

[catstorm]

Well here we go, let’s hope this is as fruitful as Tokyo.

 

[catstorm]

Problem is with everything that has come out about the systematic drug cheating going on with Chinese swimming and the cover up done by CHINADA everything they do is suspect.

 

[Tadpole]

Titmus vs Ledecky round 1 is a go.

 

[Xtreme]

My girl Katie Ledecky getting the job done in the heat

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Ledecky wanted to win that. So did Arnie early on. Sets up a great final.

 

[catstorm]

I wouldn’t read to much into that, Titmus was cruising.

 

[toml]

Commentators trying to hype up a heat lol. Arnie didn't come out of 3rd gear

 

[danielnajdek]

Ariarne wasn't trying in the last 200.

 

[Xtreme]

Ariarne wasn't trying in the last 200.

She should have, wouldn't want to be stuck in lane 8 or something

j/k

 

[Tadpole]

I wouldn’t read to much into that, Titmus was cruising.

Definitely keeping something in reserve. She’s too good to spend all her petrol tickets and show her full hand just trying to win a heat.

 

[Tadpole]

She should have, wouldn't want to be stuck in lane 8 or something

j/k

Not like Australians haven’t won from lane 8 before.

 

[Drummond]

Ledecky wanted to win that. So did Arnie early on. Sets up a great final.

Titmus went out noticeably hard. I’m assuming she realised she’d blown out the field and then just cruised. Hopefully.

 

[Drummond]

Not a great swim by Williamson.

Good swim by Yong!

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Not a great swim by Williamson.

Good swim by Yong!

Funny way to spell terrible. He wasn't a medal shot anyway but disappointing. Probably lost him a chance of swimming the mens medley relay too. Well done by Yong.

 

[sideswipe]

Be nice to see split times and have results post on screen immediately.


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