-
LIVE: Sydney v Brisbane Lions - 2:30PM AEST Sat
Squiggle tips Lions at 61% chance -- What's your tip? -- Ticketing Buy, Sell -- Teams on Thurs »
-
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Prelim Finals
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
Round SF Winner: And_ROOS
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Percentage
- Thread starter Tigerland
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Tiger_Of_Old
THE_GUN:"Why don't you use your reg acc"7/9/24
i heard somewhere its a 24 point ball game so to speak.
if the hawks losing margin is greater than our losing margin by 24pts+ then the spoon is there,s.
cheers!
if the hawks losing margin is greater than our losing margin by 24pts+ then the spoon is there,s.
cheers!
pretty much 4 goal difference hawks need to lose by 5 goals and us by 1 goal to swap spots on the ladder.
who cares really we deserve the spoon would sum up frawley's career nicely.
who cares really we deserve the spoon would sum up frawley's career nicely.
I'll try.
1...You calculate % by dividing the current 'points for' (R 1649) by 'points against' (2337) and multiplying that figure by 100.
2/...This is how the ladder looked before yesterdays game.
Richmond ...4 0 17 1563 2228 70.15 16
Hawthorn ...4 0 17 1501 2166 69.30 12
3/...By subtracting Richmond's 'points for' (1563) from 'points against' (2228) you get a number. 665
The lower this # the better your %
Do this for Hawthorn and coincidentally you get the same number:665.
4/...However, our % was marginally higher because if you add each club's 'fors' and againsts, you will find Richmond have a higher number, therefore increasing our %.
That means Richmond are involved in higher scoring games than Hawthorn.
5/...Here is the current ladder.
Hawthorn ...4 0 17 1610 2252 71.49 16
Richmond ...4 0 17 1649 2337 70.56 16
6/...Yesterdays score was 109 H to 86 R.
The margin was 23 points.
Hawthorn's 665 (remember above?, in bold) has 23 points (wining margin) taken away
(642)
Richmond's 665 has 23 (the losing margin is subtracted) added.
(688)
(R)688 - (H)642 = 46
The hawks are now 46 points ahead of the tigers, which translates 0.93%
7/...OK 46 points is the buffer.
(assume we lose next week for the sake of the exercise)
Add to that 46 our losing margin against the swans.
If the swans beat us by 24 points then that's 70 points the hawks would have to reel in: 46 + 24 =70.
The hawks then have to lose by about 60-65 popints to go below our %.
Not the entire 70 points because we have a larger aggregate (for and against) score than the hawks do ( see point 4)
8/...It's realistic to say Richmond could lose by at least 4 goals and that the hawks won't lose by more than about 8-9 goals
If it's dry on saturday and raining next sunday at Corio then the spoon's Richmonds IMHO.
I hope i haven't made any errors.
1...You calculate % by dividing the current 'points for' (R 1649) by 'points against' (2337) and multiplying that figure by 100.
2/...This is how the ladder looked before yesterdays game.
Richmond ...4 0 17 1563 2228 70.15 16
Hawthorn ...4 0 17 1501 2166 69.30 12
3/...By subtracting Richmond's 'points for' (1563) from 'points against' (2228) you get a number. 665
The lower this # the better your %
Do this for Hawthorn and coincidentally you get the same number:665.
4/...However, our % was marginally higher because if you add each club's 'fors' and againsts, you will find Richmond have a higher number, therefore increasing our %.
That means Richmond are involved in higher scoring games than Hawthorn.
5/...Here is the current ladder.
Hawthorn ...4 0 17 1610 2252 71.49 16
Richmond ...4 0 17 1649 2337 70.56 16
6/...Yesterdays score was 109 H to 86 R.
The margin was 23 points.
Hawthorn's 665 (remember above?, in bold) has 23 points (wining margin) taken away
(642)
Richmond's 665 has 23 (the losing margin is subtracted) added.
(688)
(R)688 - (H)642 = 46
The hawks are now 46 points ahead of the tigers, which translates 0.93%
7/...OK 46 points is the buffer.
(assume we lose next week for the sake of the exercise)
Add to that 46 our losing margin against the swans.
If the swans beat us by 24 points then that's 70 points the hawks would have to reel in: 46 + 24 =70.
The hawks then have to lose by about 60-65 popints to go below our %.
Not the entire 70 points because we have a larger aggregate (for and against) score than the hawks do ( see point 4)
8/...It's realistic to say Richmond could lose by at least 4 goals and that the hawks won't lose by more than about 8-9 goals
If it's dry on saturday and raining next sunday at Corio then the spoon's Richmonds IMHO.
I hope i haven't made any errors.
Not that simple.
Worst case - We would lose a high scoring 1-point game. So for example losing 119-120. In that case our percentage would go up to 71.95%. Hawthorn could then lose by 26+ points in a high scoring game (104-130) OR they could lose a by 1+-point in a low scoring game (eg 30-31). Both cases work.
In fact we could lose by 2 points and Hawthorn lose by 1 point and if the scores are right we could go beneath them despite losing by MORE than them.
So the scores are just as important as the margin.
Worst case - We would lose a high scoring 1-point game. So for example losing 119-120. In that case our percentage would go up to 71.95%. Hawthorn could then lose by 26+ points in a high scoring game (104-130) OR they could lose a by 1+-point in a low scoring game (eg 30-31). Both cases work.
In fact we could lose by 2 points and Hawthorn lose by 1 point and if the scores are right we could go beneath them despite losing by MORE than them.
So the scores are just as important as the margin.
dont think you need to worry about us narrowly losing in a high scoring game, it is us we are talking about remember, and we are playing the swans after all.
Most of the realistic scores leave the Hawks having to lose by between 20-30 points more than us, so 4-5 goals. Easily done.
Cogs is a gun
Senior List
Crumden said:Ye, but if both teams win, how much more do we have to win by?
Well im guessing it would work in reverse and we would have to win by 4-5 goals more than what hawthorn win by?
Richmond will stay in 16th.
Percentage of 69.24 For 1693 against 2445
Hawthorn is currently on for 1610 against 2252 - Percentage of 71.49
For us to escape the spoon.......(and these assume no behinds)
If hawthorn only kick one goal for the game, they need to get beaten by 12 goals.
If hawthorn only kick two goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 13 goals
If hawthorn only kick three goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 14 goals
If hawthorn only kick four goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals (cats kick 19 goals)
If hawthorn only kick five goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals. (cats kick 20 goals)
If hawthorn only kick six goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals. (cats kick 21 goals)
If hawthorn only kick seven goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals. (cats kick 22 goals)
if hawthorn only kick eight goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 16 goals. (cats kick 24 goals)
If Hawthorn kick over 10 goals, Cats need to kick 27 goals.
Face it, we are spooners.
Disgusting RFC.
Percentage of 69.24 For 1693 against 2445
Hawthorn is currently on for 1610 against 2252 - Percentage of 71.49
For us to escape the spoon.......(and these assume no behinds)
If hawthorn only kick one goal for the game, they need to get beaten by 12 goals.
If hawthorn only kick two goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 13 goals
If hawthorn only kick three goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 14 goals
If hawthorn only kick four goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals (cats kick 19 goals)
If hawthorn only kick five goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals. (cats kick 20 goals)
If hawthorn only kick six goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals. (cats kick 21 goals)
If hawthorn only kick seven goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 15 goals. (cats kick 22 goals)
if hawthorn only kick eight goals for the game, they need to get beaten by 16 goals. (cats kick 24 goals)
If Hawthorn kick over 10 goals, Cats need to kick 27 goals.
Face it, we are spooners.
Disgusting RFC.
mellowyellow
𝑅𝐹𝒞
Hope they put it to good use.
