Pies vs the Dawks - the analysis

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Sep 25, 2005
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Pies going into this one with a massive win over Essendon behind them. Pies will be pleased to be back on the winners list but moreover happy to get their intensity back along with a game where they kicked more than 20 goals and had something like 40 shots on goal. Whilst they are missing 5-6 players they would otherwise want the squad appears in top nick as well. Not easy to see how you fit Rocca and Burns back in……

Hawkers have been up for a while but struggled against a gallant Richmond. One wonders what the result may have been if Richo played fwd and stretched the “Poo Browns” up back. Tigers played a similar style to the one we will. Theirs was a pretty tough game physically and mentally so Mick will feel positive about this and the extra days break.

At selection

Its always worth starting this by answering what would worry the “mustard Golds” the most. The answer probably revolves around Rocca, Cloke and potentially Fraser stretching them down back. Hence, you would have to look at bringing Rocca in, albeit against a side like the Cats the answer would be very different as they would want him in.

If fit, Burns is a must. Against a side that loves a stoppage this bloke is your spiritual leader and I think at times its hurt us not having his leadership out on the ground.

That’s Rocca and Burns in – who to leave out?

One of Wellingham or Cook unfortunately. Both played really well on Anzac Day and will be pleased they now know they can mix it on the big stage and in big games. Whilst I thought Cook was better and is the better tagger which we so desperately need I think Wellingham has something special and we need to persist with him.

Joining Cook will need to be one Wakelin or Goldy. You will see from my matchups below I think Brown or Harry will get Buddy and the other will get the lad from Gippy. Goldsack and Maxwell will be back up so Wakelin appears the one with no matchup. Unfortunately cannot see any other way but balance and need for speed is important.


The gameplan – what do we want to see

Everybody knows to beat this mob you need to win the stoppages and keep them from setting up across HB with their highly skilled players in Guerra, Birchall, Osborne, Ladson and Crawford when he drops back. We need to monster them and have enormous tackle pressure on them.

In the mids you need to keep Mitchell and Hodge quiet. When they are not clearing or collecting heaps of the pill your chances of winning sky rocket. We don’t have a ‘Sewell like’ tagger so this could be a real problem area for us.

Winning the stoppages will help us get the game on our terms. Quick and direct movement from the stoppage always works well for us and when the momentum is up we can stay on the horse for a while. Heater must be allowed to play on the worst forward and to set the plays up for us by getting the ball switched to the other side or channelled into the corridor.

We want to see Swan collecting footy but not at the expense of seeing Mitchell or Hodge running rampant. Pendles will also need to beat his tag and use his outstanding handball in the clinches and through the corridor.

If Rocca is back, and I hope he is, then he needs to dominate these blokes. He wont get a worse FB in the league than Gilham (sorry Carroll is the worst) so he needs to take some marks.

Key matchups

When you do the matchups its going to be a really interesting game. Hawkers are going to struggle with our nippy forwards as they typically have more one paced back flankers with outstanding skill. Davis, Didak, Lockyer and Meddy should be to quick for Guerra, Birchall, Young and Brown.

On the other hand their midfield poses real problems for us. Hodge and Mitchell are the standouts and we don’t have any player to stand them. I cant see Rhyce going to Hodge, nor can I see Cook going (if he plays) there so not sure what we will do. Hodge definitely needs stopping as I have seen them lose most when he is taken out of the contest. A roughie would be Maxwell but doubt he has the engine. Wouldn’t mind betting that Swan and Mitchell are left to go head to head and that Sewell walks to Pendlebury.

Their forwards are also a problem. Brown gets Franklin and Harry get Roughead. Wakelin gets the resting ruck but may end up having a lot of time in the bench on this one or even sitting it out as mentioned before.

The matchups

B Clarke, Brown, Maxwell
F Rioli, Franklin, Williams

HB Shaw, OBrien, Goldsack
HF Osborne, Roughead, Ladson

C Thomas, Swan, R.Shaw
C Young, Hodge, Bateman

HF Didak, Cloke, Lockyer
HB Birchall, Croad, Guerra

F Davis, Rocca, Medhurst
B Ellis, Gilham, Brown

Foll Fraser, Pendlebury, Johnson
Foll Campbell, Sewell, Mitchell

Int Wood, Burns, OBree, Wellingham
Int Lewis, Crawford, Taylor, McGlynn

In: Rocca and Burns
Out: Wakelin and Cook

What is worrying Mick

Buddy, Buddy and Buddy. He is sensational and keeping him quiet is really important. Backing young Brown onto him is a massive show of confidence and will probably define the result.

He would also be worried about Hodge playing that ‘quarter back’ role he plays so well and Mitchell clearance work (never forget the game we blanketed him in a year ago only for him to smash us in this area in the second half).

What's worrying Alistair.

Waking up wondering if Rocca is going to monster another of his medium sized backs. Would also be worried about Cloke and Fraser dropping down there. If these blokes kick 10 goals between them then the Dawks will probably lose.

Who needs to step up

Thomas – he has really struggled in the last few weeks and if it wasn’t for hero status with then he would probably make way. When he can play 4 qtrs he will win matches off his own boot and become as important as Hird was to Essendon.

Clarke – needs to keep improving and become a lock down player that we so desperately need.

Wood – A goal and contested mark or two last week were terrific. But as good as he has been the possession rate could be a bit higher.

OBree – Nice to see him lift last week. I think the coaching panel have given a message that he needs to be contributing or others will be preferred.

The result

Look I think you would have so say the Hawkers win this on paper by 3-4 goals but they need Buddy to fire and that means their midfield has to dominate ours. The good news is they are due for a loss and are getting us when we are up and should be desperately wanting a big teams scalp.
 

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I agree G.A.S....Gilham is a servicable backman but not big enough to take Rocca, Croad would have to go to him you'd think!

If we start getting streched i wouldnt be surprised to see Robbie Campbell go down back and follow Rocca.
 
Re: Pies vs the MIGHTY HAWKS - the analysis

Very one eyed anlasis. All i can say is u have a few more problems than Buddy and Tough LUCK!
shouldnt eat take away from there again i think.

of course its one eyed it written by a woods supporter for woods supporters you twit
 
I agree G.A.S....Gilham is a servicable backman but not big enough to take Rocca, Croad would have to go to him you'd think!

If we start getting streched i wouldnt be surprised to see Robbie Campbell go down back and follow Rocca.
and leave you with just campell rucking the bulk? robbing peter to pay paul isnt it?

I would suggest roughead would be sent down back first wouldnt he?
 
Re: Pies vs the MIGHTY HAWKS - the analysis

Then either you have a strange screen or you should be concerned about your diet
to be honest i dont mind the hawthorn jumper (i played juniors in it), but that brown and yellow post really does look like a line of fluro piss and shit
 
and leave you with just campell rucking the bulk? robbing peter to pay paul isnt it?

I would suggest roughead would be sent down back first wouldnt he?
Wrong that will never happen,he's a very important cog in the forward line, a good foil for Buddy
 
Wrong that will never happen,he's a very important cog in the forward line, a good foil for Buddy
so you would play a ruck down for the most part?

i havent watched you alot this year, i just find playing a ruck down strange where as sending roughead down wouldnt cause as much problems as the Williams becoem a lead up player?

That is my opinion on it, and i understand roughead is important i just see a dominant ruck tandem more important than that extra forward especially when you have buddy.


just relax with the reply no reason to go off like i said Clinton was a fantastic US president
 
and leave you with just campell rucking the bulk? robbing peter to pay paul isnt it?

I would suggest roughead would be sent down back first wouldnt he?

I doubt it would happen but if it did it would leave Simon Taylor with the ruck duties, I dont think Roughead will ever be seen playing down back again after his form up forward. Campbell has done jobs on Neitz this year when Croad went down (yes i kow Neitz is nothing special) and Barry Hall last year. As i said i doubt it will happen but with Rocca and Cloke up forward you never know :confused:
 
I doubt it would happen but if it did it would leave Simon Taylor with the ruck duties, I dont think Roughead will ever be seen playing down back again after his form up forward. Campbell has done jobs on Neitz this year when Croad went down (yes i kow Neitz is nothing special) and Barry Hall last year. As i said i doubt it will happen but with Rocca and Cloke up forward you never know :confused:
AH right thanks for an answer that didnt just tell me i was wrong.

I still find it funny, but with how roughead is going up forward i understand the logic
 

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i wouldnt be dropping any of our talls! wakelin is a certain starter if fit, his experience is invaluable!!! if a tall doesnt have match up play him (goldy or maxy) forward! Obrien plays well small alot like clement so i wouldnt worry to much about that! i would give 2 of cook wellingham or marty a rest for burns and rocca!
 
You reckon that MM is going to drop our Full Back and replace him with a Full Forward? Wakelin out and Rocca in? Or is Scott Burns going to play in Wakes position?

Not a chance.

You have 4 players on the bench... none of which are shut down players and Hawthorn have one of the most attacking forward lines in the business.

In a word - suicide.
 
and leave you with just campell rucking the bulk? robbing peter to pay paul isnt it?

I would suggest roughead would be sent down back first wouldnt he?


Roughie will not go back, particuarly after kicking five last week. Personally I think our big forwards in Buddy and Roughead are much more to worry about than yours. Croad is a great option for Rocca and will reduce him to 2-3 goals at the very most. Cloke will really need to stand up against Gilham, who has though been playing well of late.

The pies need to capitilise on your small forwards who are playing well at the moment, this is where we regularly get beaten.

Dew back in will add to the dangerous half back line that has been referred to and provides some serious body work and calm decision making.

Buddy v Brown is a massive job for the kid, especially with buddy coming off 1.7 and determined to rectify. I look forward to seeing how he goes. I do expect some kind of double team.

I'll be interested to see if Collingwood drop someone into the hole as Richmond did. The comment earlier about how Richmond would have gone is Richo had gone forward was flawed. Richo spent a lot of time in the hole blocking leads. If he had spent the whole game forward the Hawks would have won by at least 10 goals. He played magnificently.

Looking forward to the game!
 
and leave you with just campell rucking the bulk? robbing peter to pay paul isnt it?

I would suggest roughead would be sent down back first wouldnt he?


I think you are right.

Not as convinced Croad will be sent back to Rocca. Hasnt been before as they prefer leaving him at CHB so not to disrupt their structure. It certainly could pan that way though
 
You reckon that MM is going to drop our Full Back and replace him with a Full Forward? Wakelin out and Rocca in? Or is Scott Burns going to play in Wakes position?

Not a chance.

You have 4 players on the bench... none of which are shut down players and Hawthorn have one of the most attacking forward lines in the business.

In a word - suicide.

Rather than just slam it I would rather here what you think the alternative is.

Notiwthstanding I said I would be surprised if Wakes got dropped but couldnt see any other way of fitting Rocca and Burns in I would be interested who you want out for Burns. By your comments i sense it aint Wakes or cook. Would also be interested in who you think should be out for Rocca, because if he is fit odds are he will play.
 
Roughie will not go back, particuarly after kicking five last week. Personally I think our big forwards in Buddy and Roughead are much more to worry about than yours. Croad is a great option for Rocca and will reduce him to 2-3 goals at the very most. Cloke will really need to stand up against Gilham, who has though been playing well of late.

The pies need to capitilise on your small forwards who are playing well at the moment, this is where we regularly get beaten.

Dew back in will add to the dangerous half back line that has been referred to and provides some serious body work and calm decision making.

Buddy v Brown is a massive job for the kid, especially with buddy coming off 1.7 and determined to rectify. I look forward to seeing how he goes. I do expect some kind of double team.

I'll be interested to see if Collingwood drop someone into the hole as Richmond did. The comment earlier about how Richmond would have gone is Richo had gone forward was flawed. Richo spent a lot of time in the hole blocking leads. If he had spent the whole game forward the Hawks would have won by at least 10 goals. He played magnificently.

Looking forward to the game!


Roughie often goes back for you blokes when he is not scoring or a hole needs filling. Certainly wont start but he would be a better option to go back than Campbell if he aint kicking goals.

Re your fwds - I think I made it clear your fwds are better than ours - particularly the tall ones, whereas our smaller ones are better.

Re the HB line. It is dangerous as I mentioned but speed is not something any of them have unless Ladson plays back there. Guerra, Dew, Birchall are a little one paced and wont keep up with Thomas, Didak, Davis and Locky.

Re dropping someone back - we rarely do that. Surprised to hear you say the argument re Richo is flawed. You presume they couldnt have used someone else to fill the hole as mentioned by a few of your better Hawks posters post the game. Getting Richo to play that role may have hurt Richmond more up the front and hence struggle to see how it could be flawed. In fact its very plausible.

As you say - should be a good game. Think your blokes will get the chocolates unfortunately.
 
Whilst I agree with many of your comments, this is one I don't fully agree with:

" Hawkers have been up for a while but struggled against a gallant Richmond. One wonders what the result may have been if Richo played fwd and stretched the “Poo Browns” up back"

Richmond were praised for their play and bravery, but people forget that HAD the hawks kicked straighter, they would have buried Richmond by well over 10 goals..They were in their forward 50, 55 times to 37..They really should have put them away in the first quarter.They are not to be underestimated, and I doubt that they will be so inaccurate this week.
 
Whilst I agree with many of your comments, this is one I don't fully agree with:

" Hawkers have been up for a while but struggled against a gallant Richmond. One wonders what the result may have been if Richo played fwd and stretched the “Poo Browns” up back"

Richmond were praised for their play and bravery, but people forget that HAD the hawks kicked straighter, they would have buried Richmond by well over 10 goals..They were in their forward 50, 55 times to 37..They really should have put them away in the first quarter.They are not to be underestimated, and I doubt that they will be so inaccurate this week.

fair point
 
Whilst I agree with many of your comments, this is one I don't fully agree with:

" Hawkers have been up for a while but struggled against a gallant Richmond. One wonders what the result may have been if Richo played fwd and stretched the “Poo Browns” up back"

Richmond were praised for their play and bravery, but people forget that HAD the hawks kicked straighter, they would have buried Richmond by well over 10 goals..They were in their forward 50, 55 times to 37..They really should have put them away in the first quarter.They are not to be underestimated, and I doubt that they will be so inaccurate this week.


I was just about to make the same comment but you beat me to it. The game was mostly played in our half. The beauty of it is that now it puts the line betting at 15.5 points for $1.90 because it made the richmond game look a lot closer.
The analysis of course is going to appear a bit one sided as they you do not watch the hawks games as closely as we do. We have already shown that we do not need buddy to fire to win both last year and this year, the main two down there that get a bit forgotten about a willo and ozzie, they have taken a lot of uncontested marks inside 50 this year because everyone is just worried about the twin towers.
The area we may struggle is like you have mentioned medhurst, didak etc getting away from their opponents, because our backline doesn't have many big names guys like gilham and birchall get overlooked a bit, our high percentage is just from our gun forward line but a so far effective backline.
Roughy wont play in defence, if need be bob campbell will go back there, he has already blanketed nathan thompson this year, and swapped with croad to keep the best forward in the league goalless - brown.
I honestly think it will come down to the midfield, if you can find a way to nullify the impact of mitchell, hodge, sewell, bateman, crawf, and lewis then it will go a long way to you guys winning.
The last thing collingwood can afford is to slip into a false sense of playing well enough recently because of the big win over essendon, lets be honest they were shit and any team would have annihilated you both from the first half performance, and essendon only had half a team, and courtney johns who rates up with dawson as the worst players to walk onto the field.
Burns would be a massive inclusion as he is a hard nut and you'd have to love him at the stoppages.
Just out of interest someone mentioned that heath shaw needs to play on our worst forward so that he can set up play, who would you rate as our worst forward? buddy, roughy, osbourne, rioli, willo, and either boyle if he plays, or maybe mcglynn? Mcglynn is not as good as shaw obviously but is tough as nails and wouldn't let him get an easy kick.
Should be a corker of a game though
 
Hawkers have been up for a while but struggled against a gallant Richmond. One wonders what the result may have been if Richo played fwd and stretched the “Poo Browns” up back. Tigers played a similar style to the one we will. Theirs was a pretty tough game physically and mentally so Mick will feel positive about this and the extra days break.


The only way in which we struggled against Richmond was goalkicking.

If Richmond were so mentally and physically tough how come we had 20 more tackles than they did? Twice as many inside 50s? TWENTY FIVE MARKS inside our forward 50???? 33 scoring shots to 19???????

If Mick feels positive about this he isn't much of a coach.

I hope you're right and the pies play a similar style of game to what Richmond played on Sunday.
 

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Pies vs the Dawks - the analysis

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