Predict how good will Tomic be...?

[bombermick]

You'd have thought he'd have done it by 17? Really?

Federer was hardly even playing on the ATP tour at that age. Most players wouldn't have developed a lethal weapon at that stage.

Tomic's serve has a lot of potential imo, as well.

Federer always had the weapons, but like Sampras, the serve-volley game takes longer to develop. Tomic, like Hewitt has a back court game that should mature quickly. He has a beautiful backhand and his shot selection is very good. If he can develop his serve he could be a top 20 player. Impossible to tell if he'll win 1 slam, yet alone 15.

 

[drink]

Tomic up 80 places to world number 208 after winning in Burnie. Has points to defend from last year's Melb Challenger later this month, then virtually nothing to defend all year. Could easily be top 100 by the time he turns 18 in October. For comparison purposes, Federer didn't make the top 100 until after he turned 18, and since then teenagers (especially under 18s) in the top 100 have become rarer and rarer due to the greater physicality of today's game. Only the freakishly strong (like Nadal) generally achieve top player status while still very young..

Andy Murray was still in the 300s at 18 years old, but then was in the 40s by the time he turned 19...

 

[crowsarethebest]

Tomic up 80 places to world number 208 after winning in Burnie. Has points to defend from last year's Melb Challenger later this month, then virtually nothing to defend all year. Could easily be top 100 by the time he turns 18 in October. For comparison purposes, Federer didn't make the top 100 until after he turned 18, and since then teenagers (especially under 18s) in the top 100 have become rarer and rarer due to the greater physicality of today's game. Only the freakishly strong (like Nadal) generally achieve top player status while still very young..

Andy Murray was still in the 300s at 18 years old, but then was in the 40s by the time he turned 19...

In tennis this is practically irrelevant. It depends on play style, their body etc. Age doesn't really matter. Some guys mature physically quicker, some take time. Some mature slower mentally and take a while to get used to the transition from juniors to seniors. Tomic is a smart player, his brain just works quicker than most guys. However his physical limitations will hinder him for a while which will stop him from breaking into the top 50 anytime soon. Top 100 might be achievable if he gets a good run, it'll be a good effort if he breaks into the top 100 this year but I doubt it. He can only play a limited amount of tournaments as he's U18 (more than last year though). The Burnie Interntaional wasn't exactly blessed with many quality players either.

 

[drink]

In tennis this is practically irrelevant. It depends on play style, their body etc. Age doesn't really matter. Some guys mature physically quicker, some take time. Some mature slower mentally and take a while to get used to the transition from juniors to seniors. Tomic is a smart player, his brain just works quicker than most guys. However his physical limitations will hinder him for a while which will stop him from breaking into the top 50 anytime soon. Top 100 might be achievable if he gets a good run, it'll be a good effort if he breaks into the top 100 this year but I doubt it. He can only play a limited amount of tournaments as he's U18 (more than last year though). The Burnie Interntaional wasn't exactly blessed with many quality players either.

true true but if he can get into the top 100 before 21 Oct he'll be the first 17 yo to do so since Nadal and Gasquet in 2003, and before that Hewitt in 1998, and before that Chang in 1989!!

 

[Amazing Bombers]

Honestly, still up in the air at the moment. Don't think he'll win a grand slam, but he could be a top 20 player, who will win a few tour finals. Still room for improvement though.

 

[goldcoast17]

If his in a MENS tournament he is treated the same as any other player in the tourny regardless of age.

**** off to Croatia and take your dad with you.

germany

 

[anthonyjm]

Tomic should be a good tennis player as he progesses through his career. He was the youngest ever player to get to the 3rd round of the Australian Open

 

[Dan_Nickels]

He's talented, but he needs to start winning to make an impact.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Does anyone know why Tomic didn't have a shot at the French Open? I thought he might have got a wildcard or played in the quallies...?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He decided not to take up the option of a wildcard- is focusing more on the grass/hardcourt seasons.

 

[Dr Awkward]

He decided not to take up the option of a wildcard- is focusing more on the grass/hardcourt seasons.

He refused a wildcard to the FO

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Kindly decided against it, would be a better wording. In the end his game suits the garss/hardourts at the moment so I am not fussed he did not take the option of getting one at the FO.

 

[andrepetz]

Kindly decided against it, would be a better wording. In the end his game suits the garss/hardourts at the moment so I am not fussed he did not take the option of getting one at the FO.

Yep, got to the SF of a challenger on hardcourt during RG qualifying, much better use of his time points-wise then a Main Draw loss at the French. Carsten's clay form deserved the wildcard more than Tomic anyway.

He will be playing Wimbledon qualifying though, got his ranking high enough to enter qualifying directly.

 

[King Of The Hille]

I hope he breaks a leg.

 

[smiths]

Dunno tbh.

Depends on his work ethic, he needs to develop his game to have a true advantage in one area that sets him apart from others. Until then about top 50 is where I could see him getting to in the next couple years.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Thought it would be a good time to bump this thread for some updated opinions, he has already proven 25% of voters wrong.

I reckon based on what we know so far he is pretty likely to win a slam at some point. Saw him at the FO this year and he looked like a baby giraffe on clay but I reckon in 2 years he will be challenging for the other 3 slams.

 

[krisholio14]

It's quite clear now he's going to be one hell of a player.

 

[Power King]

I went from a doubter (stupidity to believe he'd not make 100) in that I thought he'd be a consistent top 20 player pushing the top 10, to now believing he has what it takes to genuinely challenge for a slam and be within the top 5 for a while.

It wasn't so much the Soderling or Malisse match, it was the way he played against Djokovic. Extremely hard for an 18 year old to keep up that intensity throughout a 5 setter in a QF against a guy like 2011 Djokovic, but I was impressed with what he was able to do. Did far more than I thought he was capable of at this age.

Hope he persists on improvement and doesn't expect everything to fall in place.

 

[Caesar]

I stand by what I said 18 months ago. Intelligence and tactical ability is there, but needs to show signs of developing a real weapon or two.

His ability to convert his size into a lethal serve and a big forehand will largely dictate whether he is the next Novak Djokovic, or the next Wayne Ferreira.

 

[Hodgepodge]

The kid sounds like an idiot at times, but it's good to have a different kind of tennis player out there rather than another pure baseliner.

 

[Hodgepodge]

His ability to convert his size into a lethal serve and a big forehand will largely dictate whether he is the next Novak Djokovic, or the next Wayne Ferreira.

Agreed. The serve alone will do it, he has enough tactical nous to compensate for the lack of a big forehand imo.

 

[Dundalis]

I stand by what I said 18 months ago. Intelligence and tactical ability is there, but needs to show signs of developing a real weapon or two.

His ability to convert his size into a lethal serve and a big forehand will largely dictate whether he is the next Novak Djokovic, or the next Wayne Ferreira.

Agreed. The serve alone will do it, he has enough tactical nous to compensate for the lack of a big forehand imo.

What?

His forehand is already more powerful than Djokovic's. Easily. Djokovic is terrible at generating his own pace, he gets his power via using the pace of the opponents shots, which is what makes him such a great defensive player. That's why he had so much trouble against Tomic, as Tomic only hits out once he is in position to hit a winner or unreturnable, which gave Djokovic hardly any pace with which to generate his own.

Tomic dominated Djokovic from the back of the court for the majority of the match. He hits the ball flatter and harder than both Djokovic and Murray already, whom both hit with more topspin. His variation of shots clearly has people confused about whether he can actually generate his own power or not, but when comes to generating power off a flat ball that sits up, he blew Djokovic out of the water. Something like 20 forehand winners to Djokovic's 5.

Even Andre Agassi, one of the greatest shot makers ever was in awe of the effortless power Tomic is able to generate, after his Australian Open run. But most people that only watch a couple rallys or points of a Tomic match, probably think he's on par with Simon or Hewitt for power. He's got a very unique game.

 

[Caesar]

His forehand is already more powerful than Djokovic's. Easily.

Lol...

 

[Power King]

'Easily' is easily the most overused word on this site.

Having said that, I did feel bemused at HP's statement that Tomic has a lack of a big forehand.

 

[Caesar]

Well, define a big forehand. He hits the stroke well, but would you call it a weapon yet? Personally, I wouldn't - at least not when we're talking in the sense of being able to compete with the big guys.

A big forehand is where a player knows that he can't drop anything short or in the hitting zone otherwise it's going for a winner. See Soderling, Gonzalez, Monfils, etc.

Tomic hits it nicely and cleanly and gets some good pace, but he still has to work players off the court to create space to hit winners. He still lacks the ability to really punish every single bad ball he gets. That's one of the things that defines the top players.