Prospects for the Aussie dollar.

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Villie88 said:
The Aussie Dollar is at a three year low, and it is very different to see it drop so much in under 3 months, it was peaking at 0.95C US not long ago, you can expect it to go down abit more, but it is predicted by many experts that it will bounce back, just like the share market, now if i told you by teacher from tafe who has a degree in economics told me at the start of the year that there was going to be a large wave in the sharemarket mid year, would you believe me, no-one believed him but himself, took his money out, and came out on top.
You can never be sure what will happen, but what comes down must come up.
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If it goes up to .80 by November I'll be very happy. **** I have bad timing!
 
I earn US dollars with two mortgages in Oz so this is good news for me - sorry to those who it is bad for.

With the markets this volatile and the US with not the room to cut as much as the RBA - I wouldn't expect the Oz dollar to breakout anytime soon.

If we are talking Nov - IMHO lucky to be 70.
 

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the dollar has pretty much dived since I went on my holiday in august...

i'm in croatia at the moment and a week ago i got 400 kuna for $103 aussie dollars... 2 days ago i got 400 kuna for $112... going back to London and only getting 39p for the dollar, was 48p not that long ago...
 
Aussie dollar has further to fall imo, don't be surprised if its sub 60 cents soon.
 
Henry_Hill said:
same here. i'm going in december. not going to buy any $US though, just praying it bounces back. not worth crying over though, its out of our hands.
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I'm in the same boat. Just praying for the dollar to show some fight.

I'd be stoked with a rate of 4AU/3US (75c) at the moment.

Another one who didn't load up in July when it was in the late 90's. Except every newspaper story at the time was telling us it would be $1.04 next year. No-one told us this was coming.
 
a1118374 said:
you gotta be shitting me
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it is all on china and commodities... you can see the aussie at the moment... surging when it looks like global economies will survive (ie want our exports), and then sinks on reports of slowing trade. For mine the basic strength will hold the dollar above super lows... not that I know jack shit:)
 
jozeph said:
Aussie dollar has further to fall imo, don't be surprised if its sub 60 cents soon.
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The Aussie dropped to 60 cents briefly last night. Its 61.9 now.

As most Asian currencies are pegged in a band against the US dollar, this is having a massive impact on any Australian business with operations in Asia.

Just to give a couple of examples, In July you could get nearly 32 Thai baht to an Aussie dollar, its now under 22 baht. The Malaysian Ringgit got to a rate of 3.08 RM to the dollar, now its 2.21! Thats in less than 3 months.

A 50% $A cost increase for doing business in Asia - our nearest neighbours and major parts of many Aussie businesses. The impact on inflation via imports will also be massive.

I understand that this collapse helps exports but seriously a 50% increase in costs is massive and one wonders why the RBA just lets it float while ALL other currencies seem to have an active strategy to protect their currencies value?
 
Now I wish I bought it for $0.68 during the week. I've been getting greedy and hoping for a buying rate of $0.70. I feel like I'm playing a game of deal or no deal. It's gets up there and I wait hoping it will go up further, but then it drops and costs me a fortune.

I'm going to the States in less than 3 weeks. I'm hoping that if Obama wins the election that it will spark some positivity in the markets. I think that's my only hope at this point.

To think when I went to Hawaii in March and bought for $0.90, I was pissed off as it went to $0.94 a day or so later.
 
Can't see it rising soon, hate being so pessimistic re the Aussie, but the only market indice that is rising is USD vs everything, the next bubble to pop.
 
jozeph said:
Can't see it rising soon, hate being so pessimistic re the Aussie, but the only market indice that is rising is USD vs everything, the next bubble to pop.
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True.

Clearly a countries economic fundamentals are a minor issue in valuing its currency. The US is a shambles at present and its currency just keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I think we can live with the Aussie not moving up much, it would just be nice if it stabilised somewhat. What is the impact of this fall vis a vis our nearest trading partners? I mean most of ASEAN seem to peg their currencies (either stated or implied) within a band against the US, so we have also collapsed against them - does anyone have any views on whether this hurts us or helps? Further, I cant for the life of me, see this as a good thing for them - developing nations who have now got currencies appreciably higher valued against all their European & Australian trading partners - which has to hurt their competitiveness - werent overvalued currencies a significant factor in the damage done in the 97 Asian crisis?

Sorry for all the questions, just seems that anytime we have a 33% devaluation of our currency in 2 months against our major trading partners it is pretty significant and seems to have been brushed off as a bit of an impost for tourists going o/s...its surely a bit more signifcnat than that?
 

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What I don't get is why the Pound has gained so much on the Aussie dollar? It's great news for me, not so great news is my NY trip in a few weeks, two months ago I could've got $2/£1, now i get $1.55/£1.

The Pound has died against the US dollar so why has it done so well against the Aussie dollar?
 
de_LICA_ish18 said:
Now I wish I bought it for $0.68 during the week. I've been getting greedy and hoping for a buying rate of $0.70. I feel like I'm playing a game of deal or no deal. It's gets up there and I wait hoping it will go up further, but then it drops and costs me a fortune.

I'm going to the States in less than 3 weeks. I'm hoping that if Obama wins the election that it will spark some positivity in the markets. I think that's my only hope at this point.

To think when I went to Hawaii in March and bought for $0.90, I was pissed off as it went to $0.94 a day or so later.
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We're in the exact same boat, now our only option is to wait (or buy at .60)

When it was over .90 I took it for granted and just assumed it'd be around that mark when I travel to see my fiancee later in the year.

If it was just a vacation I could wait it out, but my fiancee has been going to school there for months and we're pretty desperate to see each other.

This is really pissing me off:mad:
 
Pornstar said:
I wouldn't buy USD right now [at 88c]. This strengthening of the USD looks highly manufactured to me. Sooner or later we will get a reversal.
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jonny f muleus said:
Speculation of an interest rate cut and lower commodity prices has caused people to jump off the Aussie dollar. It's taken a massive beating already and thinking it might steady and there may be a slight correction upwards, but expect it to remain steady around 0.87-0.89.
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Don't you two look like idiots. :D
 
The only problem is, they'll be selling it for $.65-.66. Hopefully the US stocks have a good night and it lifts another couple of cents. If this happens I will probably buy tomorrow.
 
Will it definitely go down after the interest rate cut tomorrow? I'm wondering if I should buy tonight. It above $0.68 so I suppose banks will sell for about $0.66. I'm thinking I should buy. The only trouble is that my bank hasn't updated it's rates all day (planning to buy thru Internet banking). So I guess I have to wait for that as they are still showing $0.65. I'm leaving in 12 days so and can't see it getting much higher than this.
 
de_LICA_ish18 said:
Will it definitely go down after the interest rate cut tomorrow? I'm wondering if I should buy tonight. It above $0.68 so I suppose banks will sell for about $0.66. I'm thinking I should buy. The only trouble is that my bank hasn't updated it's rates all day (planning to buy thru Internet banking). So I guess I have to wait for that as they are still showing $0.65. I'm leaving in 12 days so and can't see it getting much higher than this.
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It would already have been priced to reflect the cut, so shouldn't change much unless the RB delivers something different to what the market expects.
 

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Prospects for the Aussie dollar.

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