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Qld Queensland State Election 2024

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Gees a greens wipe out. Did not see that coming. There was three times as many greens volunteers handing out tickets in my seat as the libs and labor. They didnt even get in the top two.

does this mean anything for the federal election? A backlash against the greens?
The Greens spend too much time on divisive issues that aren't a high priority to most of the electorate like transactivism and Palestine.
 
Miles running around like a election denier was one of the sadder moment in Australian political history. You lost mate, concede and move on.

Refusing to accept the results of the people is the arrogant attitude that lost you the election in the first place...

It wouldnt surprise me if Miles demands a recount and refuses to give up office at this stage. Suspect he was in his bunker last night trying to fight one last battle that way
 
adogsfan5 where do you live?

"oh I live in Victoria"

"why are you laughing at my posts, then in the QLD election thread?"

"I'm kind of a ****wit"

"I also hope Trump gets up so I can laugh at random people on the internet"

Damn... that's sad

The irony in this post is hilarious.

Just have a look at how you interact with people who you don’t agree with, on an online footy forum, about POLITICS.
And I’m the sad one? 😂

Youre an unhinged grumpy old man.

Miles knew it was over and you're mad he didn't suck your ****
 
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Jacinta Price kept it going. And to a degree, once the whispers are out there, it's hard to rein it in again. Crisafulli isn't that skilled I reckon.
Jacinta Price torpedoing something again - lol. What a useless hack she is. As predicted, now that she's sunk the Voice we almost never hear a peep from Price.
 
There was an interesting comment made last night- would be good to see stats so we know i it was true but essentially

Progressive Jewish voters abandoned greens for the ALP because of their stance on Gaza

Voters of Chinese descent held firm in key seats rather than return to the libs because Albo is not publically calling out X growing aggression.

Suspect these were relatively minor factors in a few seats at most.

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
....................

I would appreciate Borisdog weighing in, and I must thank everyone who read this novella. :)
Hi DaRick,

Sorry I'm late here. I actually did a booth count and didn't get home until about 11 last night.

Pretty good analysis by you, but like anything, it's generally just a "punt" by an observer.

One thing that REALLY surprised me in the booth I counted ( very small, only 500 or so votes ) in Townsville electorate, was how few people "voted the card" with their preferences. Clearly a booth where people were prepared to make up their own mind rather than go with their "party's" wish.

My wife actually scrutineered in another, much larger, booth and the result at her booth was virtually the opposite of what I saw in my booth. My booth had the ALP in front, by about 10%. Hers had the LNP in front by about 25% - with about 8 times the votes of my booth, and a lot of those votes were pre-poll.

The LNP have won the 3 Townsville seats pretty handsomely, and the election comfortably enough I'd say. Now they have to be seen to be acting on their mandate. And quickly.

An interesting thing IMO here in Townsville was the sheer volume of pre-poll votes, and I reckon a SIZEABLE number of them occurred BEFORE the KAP threw the abortion grenade. Like most things in life, timing is everything.

There is clearly a growing trend to vote prior to election day. My wife has been involved in elections for years, she contends this was the "quietest" election day she'd ever seen for people voting "on the day". And the ECQ staff at the booth I counted said the same.

If I were a political strategist, I'd be doing some very searching analysis on how to make that trend work for my party, because I strongly suspect that trend will become the norm.
 
"Smiley" gets the boot and the Greens have a nightmare election. Wonderful stuff, not the landslide that was expected, but as long as those peanuts are out on their ear that is a good thing. Even Albo will be happy with the Greens debacle. It was closer than i thought and Crisafulli doesn't impress me much, but they're lot of ex pat Victorians up there and we all know Victorians are not the full two bob when it comes to elections. I can only hold out hope that Jacinta will really start to worry now?
 
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"Smiley" gets the boot and the Greens have a nightmare election. Wonderful stuff, not the landslide that was expected, but as long as those peanuts are out on their ear that is a good thing. Even Albo will be happy with the Greens debacle. It was closer than i thought and Crisafulli doesn't impress me much, but they're are a lot of ex pat Victorians up there and it we all know Victorians are not the full two bob when it comes to elections. I can only hold out hope that Jacinta will really start to worry now?
Giggles brought the margin back with the smear campaign that littered the last fortnight. Even my 12 year old was banging on about the propagander being sprouted by the ALP. Still a significant shift making the 12 seats and still being able to form a majority. First few months are going to be hectic for DC he’ll unearth some skeletons. But the Greens having their arses handed to them is magnificent
 

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Hi DaRick,

Sorry I'm late here. I actually did a booth count and didn't get home until about 11 last night.

Pretty good analysis by you, but like anything, it's generally just a "punt" by an observer.

One thing that REALLY surprised me in the booth I counted ( very small, only 500 or so votes ) in Townsville electorate, was how few people "voted the card" with their preferences. Clearly a booth where people were prepared to make up their own mind rather than go with their "party's" wish.

My wife actually scrutineered in another, much larger, booth and the result at her booth was virtually the opposite of what I saw in my booth. My booth had the ALP in front, by about 10%. Hers had the LNP in front by about 25% - with about 8 times the votes of my booth, and a lot of those votes were pre-poll.

The LNP have won the 3 Townsville seats pretty handsomely, and the election comfortably enough I'd say. Now they have to be seen to be acting on their mandate. And quickly.

An interesting thing IMO here in Townsville was the sheer volume of pre-poll votes, and I reckon a SIZEABLE number of them occurred BEFORE the KAP threw the abortion grenade. Like most things in life, timing is everything.

There is clearly a growing trend to vote prior to election day. My wife has been involved in elections for years, she contends this was the "quietest" election day she'd ever seen for people voting "on the day". And the ECQ staff at the booth I counted said the same.

If I were a political strategist, I'd be doing some very searching analysis on how to make that trend work for my party, because I strongly suspect that trend will become the norm.

No problem, mate. I appreciate you offering your thoughts, since I know that you're a Townsville local. :)

Yeah, in retrospect, I should have considered pre-polling's effect more closely, because had those votes been cast on election day, when the momentum was clearly with the ALP, then the margin would certainly have been closer. The LNP would still obviously be favourites, but forming a majority would have been much more difficult. A KAP/ON-backed LNP government was a trainwreck waiting to happen.

Crisafulli has avoided that fate, but he has to deliver. In particular, Mackay/Rockhampton are former ALP strongholds, and they could easily swing back if he doesn't.

I think the only way to make that trend work is to visit those electorates long before the election and make it clear that you'll address their problems, or that you're addressing their problems. The ALP let the issues in electorates like Townsville/Mackay/Rockhampton fester for too long, so Miles' superior campaigning was less impactful than it would have been previously.
 
Giggles brought the margin back with the smear campaign that littered the last fortnight. Even my 12 year old was banging on about the propagander being sprouted by the ALP. Still a significant shift making the 12 seats and still being able to form a majority. First few months are going to be hectic for DC he’ll unearth some skeletons. But the Greens having their arses handed to them is magnificent
Hopefully a domino affect across the country.
 
Gees a greens wipe out. Did not see that coming. There was three times as many greens volunteers handing out tickets in my seat as the libs and labor. They didnt even get in the top two.

does this mean anything for the federal election? A backlash against the greens?
Interestingly in the last election up your way the LNP actually redirected preferences to the greens in at least one seat!

October 26, 2024

...The Greens lost South Brisbane to Labor, after the LNP recommended preferences to Labor on their how-to-vote material after recommending preferences to the Greens in 2020. Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the first time the Greens have lost a single-member seat that they won at the previous general election....
 

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................... Crisafulli has avoided that fate, but he has to deliver. In particular, Mackay/Rockhampton are former ALP strongholds, and they could easily swing back if he doesn't.

I think the only way to make that trend work is to visit those electorates long before the election and make it clear that you'll address their problems, or that you're addressing their problems. The ALP let the issues in electorates like Townsville/Mackay/Rockhampton fester for too long, so Miles' superior campaigning was less impactful than it would have been previously.
Well, maybe.

The better alternative of course is to ACT when you're in government.

And remind the electorate of your actions and successes when you seek re-election.

A good campaign isn't much chop when you've done **** all for years and everyone knows it.

I could be wrong but I think TSV is about the only place that has a locally printed/produced newspaper north of the Sunshine Coast. They absolutely pasted the 3 ALP members ( of 5 MPs ) here for years nonstop. And they richly deserved it. It's not easy to recover from that sort of adverse publicity when the electorate knows it to have a very solid basis in fact. It's a shitshow the local paper though - a revolving door of young editors transplanted from elsewhere for a year or so who have pretty much no clue of the city and what interests people who live here. There's an ex-editor who does a blog called the Townsville Magpie - Malcolm Weatherup is his name and he is very dialled into what's going on here. Makes for good reading at times. He's been here since Jesus played fullback for Jerusalem. He runs rings around his former employers.

Dametto (KAP ) has, at a guess, around a quarter of his electorate's voters in Townsville's northern suburbs. One of those suburbs in particular I'd reckon demographically at least would be staunchly ALP, but apparently not. I might suss out the booths out of curiosity. But he was the ONLY one you ever heard in the last 4 years or so on the radio. He was, and is, a VERY visible local candidate who clearly bore the fruit for his efforts. He won't need a preference count I reckon. The other 3 were invisible, and if you did see/hear them it was generally because they needed to go into damage control after one shambles or another. They may have got TV coverage but I wouldn't know, I won't watch it because I hate being told what my opinion is. This is an interesting argument I regularly have with my youngest daughter, who IS a journo, and is married to one. Neither of them work in the news media anymore. They both do PR now.

Dametto and the 3 ALP members covered probably 90% at least of the Greater Townsville area. The Outer S-SW suburbs are the Northern part of Burdekin electorate. Dale Last is the LNP member there but he tended to keep his nose out of Townsville. I'm guessing how much of TSV's population he actually has as the electoral boundary maps aren't detailed enough for me to drill into exactly what he has.

The LNP have got to be seen to be dealing with the issues that got them voted in, in every electorate. That's just good government, whether or not they will remains to be seen. I reckon there might be a bit of a shock when they check the bank account though, given the vast amount of pork-barreling that went on in the last few months.
 
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Unless she's done it herself then a non-LNP voter has obviously thought it appropriate.

She's posing Infront of it, smiling pretty much saying **** you to her detractors.

I think her response is funny.

She’s not doing it right. She needs to be thinking about all of the people offended on her behalf. I’m sure there’s a leftist encampment set up at some university that is outraged by the fact that her response is anti-Palestinian….or something else.
 
There is clearly a growing trend to vote prior to election day. My wife has been involved in elections for years, she contends this was the "quietest" election day she'd ever seen for people voting "on the day". And the ECQ staff at the booth I counted said the same.

If I were a political strategist, I'd be doing some very searching analysis on how to make that trend work for my party, because I strongly suspect that trend will become the norm.
This is why you don't need to come up with some new thing days before voting. People have already decided and voted early to avoid the crowds.
 
There was an interesting comment made last night- would be good to see stats so we know i it was true but essentially

Progressive Jewish voters abandoned greens for the ALP because of their stance on Gaza

Voters of Chinese descent held firm in key seats rather than return to the libs because Albo is not publically calling out X growing aggression.

Suspect these were relatively minor factors in a few seats at most.

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app
There would be mainstream voters abandoning the greens based on thier stance about issues that aren't really in the front of mind for the average voter
 

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Qld Queensland State Election 2024


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