Preview R6: Changes v Fremantle

[Vader]

Have you got a stat to back that up?

From my naked eye I would say apart from the Swans/Hawks games they are down.

Yes our high scoring game style, along with high scores against allow for more centre contest set ups but there are also a lot less contests around the ground because of this and our efficiency of ball movement. In fact our disposal efficiency would also contribute to this as we have improved so much less balls are missing their marks and causing contested ball situations.

Compare the first 5 rounds of 2016 with the final averages from 2015.

2015
Adelaide clearances: 40.6 (per game)
Opposition clearances: 37.6
Total: 78.2
Win %: 51.9

2016
Adelaide clearances: 41.8
Opposition clearances: 40.6
Total: 82.4
Win %: 50.7

5% more clearances contested overall. Our winning percentage has dropped by 1.2%.

Stats taken from footywire.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

So I heard BNM I50's are effective one in ten times, I'm not sure if true that keeps out anyone.

We didn't notice how poor his delivery was the last few years because he rarely got the ball

 

[1990crow]

Compare the first 5 rounds of 2016 with the final averages from 2015.

2015
Adelaide clearances: 40.6 (per game)
Opposition clearances: 37.6
Total: 78.2
Win %: 51.9

2016
Adelaide clearances: 41.8
Opposition clearances: 40.6
Total: 82.4
Win %: 50.7

5% more clearances contested overall. Our winning percentage has dropped by 1.2%.

Stats taken from footywire.

Too small of a sample size given we have played 3 top 4 teams in my opinion.

 

[ad victoriam]

My 2 cents On B Crouch Returning straight into the AFL,
He a Bull he will go flat out in any contest SANFL or AFL so he does not need a warm up game.
His bad games are better than several other average games so stat wise we lose nothing but we do gain.
He is class and you always play class when fit.
His speed will be needed for the bulldogs game Freo will be a good hit out for him.

 

[RedvestMan]

This board has a standard response to a loss and that it is that most things to with the team are wrong and things need changing, like immediately. Now if it was a series of losses ala Port or Freo then yes, I think things should be looked at and considered, but a 3 point loss is not a good reason to do what some on this board have form for doing.

For me I want to wait and see if there is an issue or if it was just a case of coming up against the best and most consistent team in the competition for the past number of years. It just makes me shake my head seeing the same posters saying the same things over and over again and not taking into account this is a young team under a brand new coach five games into their first season together. That's not claiming nothing can be tweaked or improved but waiting to see if there is actually an issue or if it was just a bloody good game of football where our players showed some disappointing inexperience which can be tweaked and improved upon.

Totally agree we are a young team, stop making/asking for changes and let the team grow together. Where did most people have us at after 8 games? About 3 wins and 5 losses. We are 3-2 after 5

 

[Heafy83]

This board has a standard response to a loss and that it is that most things to with the team are wrong and things need changing, like immediately. Now if it was a series of losses ala Port or Freo then yes, I think things should be looked at and considered, but a 3 point loss is not a good reason to do what some on this board have form for doing.

For me I want to wait and see if there is an issue or if it was just a case of coming up against the best and most consistent team in the competition for the past number of years. It just makes me shake my head seeing the same posters saying the same things over and over again and not taking into account this is a young team under a brand new coach five games into their first season together. That's not claiming nothing can be tweaked or improved but waiting to see if there is actually an issue or if it was just a bloody good game of football where our players showed some disappointing inexperience which can be tweaked and improved upon.

To me there has been 1 thing that seperates us from those top sides........... expereince.

The two games we have lost are to top 4 sides who age/games played experience are well above ours. Especially for those players whom the ball is in hand in vital moments.

Think about it. Our senior players are Thommo, Betts...... then there is a large gap to the Jacobs, Tex, Sloane, Talias of our team. Most of those guys have only just clicked over the 100+ games in the last season or two.

Compare that to players like Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Boomer, Petrie etc and senior leaders at those clubs and we fall well behind.

This is the only thing that stands between us and contending for the flag at the moment. History says we need another couple years to be a real contender but the Hawks of 2008 proved it can be done at times outside of that.

I am confident after these 2 losses if put in this position again we react differently and win these games. I think the Crows at the end of the 2016 season will be an even better version than what we are seeing now.

 

[Heafy83]

Compare the first 5 rounds of 2016 with the final averages from 2015.

2015
Adelaide clearances: 40.6 (per game)
Opposition clearances: 37.6
Total: 78.2
Win %: 51.9

2016
Adelaide clearances: 41.8
Opposition clearances: 40.6
Total: 82.4
Win %: 50.7

5% more clearances contested overall. Our winning percentage has dropped by 1.2%.

Stats taken from footywire.

Whilst these are great stats mate. I have 2 queries:

a.) who were the opposition in those 1st 5 games last year?
b.) We lost a top 5 player and our winning % has dropped 1.2%? I'd call that a win and fairly negligible when it comes down to the nitty gritty.

I think there is little to no argument there. Whilst technically you may be right in the grand scheme of things you are standing on very thin ice. To be 1.2% down after playing 3 top 4 sides..... I'll take that.

 

[RodnyDangrfield]

My 2 cents On B Crouch Returning straight into the AFL,
He a Bull he will go flat out in any contest SANFL or AFL so he does not need a warm up game.
His bad games are better than several other average games so stat wise we lose nothing but we do gain.
He is class and you always play class when fit.
His speed will be needed for the bulldogs game Freo will be a good hit out for him.

Agree. I think if he's done the training and run the k's then SANFL footy for him is useless, as per the pre season games where he was getting 40 touches and then still struggled in the big league. AFL time is what he needs, Lewis Hamilton doesn't warm up in a Camry when he's learning a track, about as useful as **** on a bull.

 

[StonesThrow]

If anyone wants a ticket in the western stand I've got one available.

 

[Vader]

OK.. some more stats on the clearances.

• Adelaide have contested the 2nd most clearances of any team in the competition. Port are top, with an average of 84.6 per game. Adelaide are 2nd, with 82.4. Not surprisingly, Hawthorn and North are next on the list. Freo, Carlton, Footscray and Gold Coast have contested the fewest, all averaging less than 68 clearances per game.
• Adelaide's percentage of clearances won is only good enough for 7th best. Footscray are the clubhouse leaders after 5 games, winning 58.2% of clearances contested. GWS are 2nd, with 55.2%. Adelaide are 7th, with 50.7%. Port are 17th, winning just 44.7%. Brisbane are dead last, winning a measly 44%.

** Brisbane have had the hardest start to the season of any team, playing 3 of the current top-4 inside the first 5 rounds. It's probably no surprise that their winning percentage is so low, having played against some seriously good midfields already. Conversely, Footscray have played 3 of the bottom 4 teams, so their winning percentage is inflated the other way.

There's a reasonably strong correlation between the number of clearances contested and the scores kicked in each game:

• The 4 teams with the highest total clearance numbers are Port, Adelaide, Hawthorn and North. In terms of points scored (for & against), they ranked 5th, 3rd, 10th and 2nd.
  
• Conversely, Carlton and Footscray are 17th and 18th for total scores in their games. They're 16th and 17th on the total number of clearances contested.
• Hawthorn are an exception to the rule. They're a middle of the road 10th for high-scoring games (929pts, compared to Brisbane's 1136 and Footscray's 774). Yet, they're 3rd on the ladder for clearances contested.

** Just to clarify, these numbers are total clearances contested - combined totals of clearances won and lost. Similarly, the points scored are combined totals, including both for and against. Port's games have been really high scoring - they're scoring moderately well themselves, but their opponents are kicking cricket scores against them.

 

[Vader]

Agree. I think if he's done the training and run the k's then SANFL footy for him is useless, as per the pre season games where he was getting 40 touches and then still struggled in the big league. AFL time is what he needs, Lewis Hamilton doesn't warm up in a Camry when he's learning a track, about as useful as **** on a bull.

Hamilton spends hours and hours learning the tracks using a simulator, a glorified PlayStation. Not sure there's an equivalent for Crouch, in coming back from injury.

 

[fabs33]

To me there has been 1 thing that seperates us from those top sides........... expereince.

The two games we have lost are to top 4 sides who age/games played experience are well above ours. Especially for those players whom the ball is in hand in vital moments.

Think about it. Our senior players are Thommo, Betts...... then there is a large gap to the Jacobs, Tex, Sloane, Talias of our team. Most of those guys have only just clicked over the 100+ games in the last season or two.

Compare that to players like Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Boomer, Petrie etc and senior leaders at those clubs and we fall well behind.

This is the only thing that stands between us and contending for the flag at the moment. History says we need another couple years to be a real contender but the Hawks of 2008 proved it can be done at times outside of that.

I am confident after these 2 losses if put in this position again we react differently and win these games. I think the Crows at the end of the 2016 season will be an even better version than what we are seeing now.

Bring back VB, 200 games of experience!

 

[earlsta]

Based on last weeks matches.
The teams that are the closest to us in terms of games played/median age.
Are
Essendon
Richmond
Port

They're very very similar to our team in terms of those two statistics age / games played.

 

[Elite Crow]

In: Milera, Crouch
Out: Cheney, Lyon

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I'm not sure to be honest, but we seem to be having a bit of trouble with small/mid opponents down there. I still feel that the lack of midfield defensive pressure is our major issue. Both from stoppages and in general play.

I'm hoping with McGovern Cameron and betts we can also lock the ball in our forward half more successfully and cause turnovers in midfield

Let's see if Freo can move it fast which they haven't been able to do

Prob keep Cheney for now , he needs to play a bit smarter one on one and use his big body more

 

[Jeffcrowe]

How have we rated for turnovers this year? From memory we were off the chart early last season giving up turnovers in the middle of the ground.

One of leagues best

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I (hopefully) recorded the SANFL game, when it was shown on 7Mate early this morning. Will be watching it this evening, with great interest.

If Hendo has a position in this team, it has to be further up the ground. Problem is that he's competing with the likes of Smith, Ratkins, Seedsman and (to a lesser extent), Bran Nue Mackae (I do like that term). That's a contest he's not going to win in a hurry.

If he does play (and he probably will at some stage), then it will be due to injuries - not because he's somehow become a best 22 player.

I was able to get the SANFL game on the channel 7 mate app for anyone interested - that's the way to get it .... Hopefully the top of table clash against south this week will also feature as the game of the week . This is more for interstaters as a way to catch SANFL form

 

[RodnyDangrfield]

Hamilton spends hours and hours learning the tracks using a simulator, a glorified PlayStation. Not sure there's an equivalent for Crouch, in coming back from injury.

Exactly, he spends his time getting up to speed at trainings, Sanfl is usless... I assume that was your point.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I dont neccessarily have one for any player. Maybe against mackay slightly but thats a distrust from previous performance type thing.
Henderson im 50/50. I dont think hes a bad 20-26 type player. Solid depth now. His good games are very good. I liken him to Clinton Young at the Hawks, looks good in a good team with his weapons but needs everyone around him to cover his weakness which are evident. As soon as young went to the pies he looked like a B grader.

Yep tend to agree - hendo is good as the icing on a good cake but doesn't make the cake good

He will get games this year and perform well at times in a good side

 

[1970crow]

In: Milera, Crouch
Out: Cheney, Lyon

Would like to see Milera have a run through the defensive rotation.

 

[baldandbroke]

** Brisbane have had the hardest start to the season of any team, playing 3 of the current top-4 inside the first 5 rounds. It's probably no surprise that their winning percentage is so low, having played against some seriously good midfields already. Conversely, Footscray have played 3 of the bottom 4 teams, so their winning percentage is inflated the other way.

And Adelaide have had the second toughest start to this season ... based on the current ladder.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

anyone else think Cameron didnt show much against the hawks? had one goal gifted to him but that was about all, id say hes in danger this week

First game back , give the kid time .... He's also not one to measure in possessions and goals

He's a 'pressure' forward primarily and his games should be judged on forward 50 pressure and tackling as much as possessions

Goals and goal assists will come if he's applying consistent pressure

Expect him to play well this week and be even more important against the dogs at Etihad

I'm tipping the Adelaide v dogs game to be the quickest game to ever have been played in the history of the game - the ball will be zinging like a KFC burger

Re Brad crouch - bring him in for the cats game if he has 2 solid weeks at SANFL level and his body is sound . He can skip that game at Etihad

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Only potential change looking like Crouch for Lyons.

Lyons will be desperately unlucky after another solid showing on Fri.

If brouch is truely ready to go at Afl level - which I'm a little doubtful of - would we consider giving thommo a week off? Probably too early in the season.

We should be looking to freshen up players where possible. Anyone with significant niggles should be managed this week while we have some depth playing well in the Sanfl.

 

[Vader]

And Adelaide have had the second toughest start to this season ... based on the current ladder.

Yes, but we've also had goal-fests even against the lower ranked teams (Port & Richmond). Lots of goals = lots of centre clearances. This is also the reason why Port have had so many clearance contests (but it wasn't them kicking the cricket scores).

 

[Slippery Pete]

How many games did Charlie Cameron play in the SANFL before returning last Friday night?