Rating our U23 Prospects

[Jelly Bean]

Given I'm bored, I thought I'd take a leaf from some of the US sports and offer a rating of our 'rookie/prospects' - i.e. young players who have yet to establish themselves. For the purposes of this thread, I've drawn the line at anyone who was born in or after 2002, and has played fewer than 30 games. I have ranked them in order of 1 to 14, and provided my opinion of how likely they are to play 100 games with the club. Note - this isn't about who is better right now, but about who I think is more likely to end up making it to 100 games for the club (therefore probably being at least an average contributor). Overall, I think a lot of clubs would have a higher rated list than how my list below has played out, which is a worry for me going forward.

Feel free to provide feedback / alternate ratings.

1. Ed Allan. Has all the tools, and showed some good signs in the final round against Melbourne, but in truth has yet to have put them all together consistently in two years on the list to date. I'm optimistic that he plays 10-15 games this year and cements himself as the best player on this list, and a solid cog in the midfield machine for the next decade.
Likelihood of getting to 100 games: 70%

2. Harvey Harrison. Show a bit in the 15 or so games he's played so far, and looks to be a capable small forward if he gets the chance. Projects to me as a slightly better than a fringe best 23 player who can be consistently dangerous at times crumbing around the goals, but rarely a difference maker. High floor, low ceiling type.
Likelihood: 55%

3. Reef McInness. I'm more of an optimist on Reef than many others, as I thought he was showing promise as a third leading tall over the last two years, even before the shift to key back. I admit I'm also dreaming more on his physical potential (speed, strength, size combo) than his demonstrated output at AFL or VFL, but I think he gets the chance to take a key back post this year and makes it work.
Likelihood: 50%

4. Wil Parker. Probably the next most likely to make it from this list, although starting to get to a lower likelihood overall even at this early point in the list. Looks to be a solid all-round type with the biggest probable gap in pace to lock down a small defender role, but has okay foot skills and okay football nous from what I've seen (although no obvious dominant tool).
Likelihood: 45%

5. Fin Macrae. Has a ceiling of an average midfield contributor in my view, but I feel if he can get through this year and show something, he is in contention of locking down an inside mid spot for a few years. I feel like the likely retirements at end of 2025 of Sidey, Pendles, and Mitchell, and an ageing Crisp, will get him many more minutes in 2026 if he can survive that long. Don't think he's a long termer, but could be a needed medium term fill.
Likelihood: 40%

6. Charlie West. I'll admit, this will appear high given West has barely even arrived at the club, but I think it's more a commentary on how our youth drops away a fair bit from here in my view. West has some characteristics that are appealing right now - in particular a projectable build, decent speed and leap testing, and reported 'aggression'. Not to mention he will most likely get early chances given our dearth of key forward depth.
Likelihood: 40%

7. Will Hayes. Seems like the type that the team will be useful at various points, with solid speed and fitness, solid or better skills, and some appetite for contest. Does look a lot like a Daisy Thomas type without the arial ability, although very conscious that he has no where near the junior record or ceiling that Dais had. Wouldn't be surprised if he has a permanent small forward spot by 2027 for a few years.
Likelihood: 40%

8. Tew Jiath. Has some exciting traits - namely reported speed and leap, but a long way back in my opinion in terms of strength, skills, and football nous, and I'm not yet convinced he puts it all together at this point. I think his kicking needs to the most work, with a high trajectory making him a potential liability coming out of the backline with opposition players able to pick them off. Very hopeful, but not convinced.
Likelihood: 35%

9. Iliro Smit. I initially had him higher, given he has some good physical traits (according to himself), and has show some aptitude for the ruck position late last year, but then remembered that he is still so raw, hasn't had much by way of junior pedigree, and quality rucks generally don't show themselves so early, I toned him down a bit. If he can show an ability to play as a part time key foward as well, his rating goes up.
Likelihood: 35%

10. Oscar Steene. Pretty similar to Smit above in that he has some building blocks, but still a lot of gaps in terms of junior performance and senior performance to date, the longer development time for rucks, and the lack of demonstrated ability to rest deep forward. Appears slightly injury prone also, which is why I've got him slightly behind Roo.
Likelihood: 35%

11. Jacob Ryan. I hope he shows enough at VFL to get some more opportunities at HB or wing, but I doubt it. Looks to have worked hard on his running / fitness, and is a good enough height at 189cm to play a few roles. Let's hope the arial competitiveness / intercepting that was talked up by Hine so much at the point of drafting shows up this year and he has a shot.
Likelihood: 30%

12. Joel Cochran. I loved his highlights showing an ability to lope past all opponents when taking off from half back, but if he isn't going to be a key defender (which he doesn't seem to be) then he will need to have better than average footskills, intercept marking, or one on one ability, which he doesn't appear to have yet. I'd love it if I was wrong here, and he could take a half back role in a couple of years.
Likelihood: 25%

13. Harry Demattia. Not sure about this kid, and admittedly haven't seen much of him (like at all...). Seems a bit of an Adam Kennedy type - a bit short, a bit slow, and a bit average with his skills, and no real demonstration of inside ability. Don't see a future for him as a half back or outside player, and don't think he wins too much ball as an inside mid. Not hopeful.
Likelihood. 25%

14. Ned Long. Tall and strong, but doesn't seem to use those things to win the ball or stop other tall, strong mids. Telling that he wasn't asked to do a defensive job on Cripps (his most close body comparison) when Cripps beat everyone else. Saw some very brief flashes of fight in the game against Melbourne, but think he'll mostly be a small part fill in player for the next 1-2 years and that's it. Was lucky to be retained in my view. Please prove me wrong Ned!
Likelihood. 20%.

And two bonus ratings, noting that I have seen almost nothing but short highlights of one, and literally nothing but basketball highlights and stats of the other....

B1. Tom McGuane. Looks to be a small inside / outside mid with a neat or better short left foot and a talent for accumulation, and good endurance (albeit without break away speed). I liken his style to Zac Merrett, and think he could slot into the midfield as a solid contributor nicely in a few years time.
Likelihood: 55%

B2. Alex Condon. Dreaming on this guy a little bit, given he'd be the tallest ever player to play the game, has at least some football background, would get to the club at age 21 (I think), has some obvious athletic traits (agility, speed for height), and appears to be decent enough in the 'contested' side of basketball (rebounding) to project to ruck contests and even marking. Would need a long time to build a footballer's body, mentality, fitness levels, and skills, but he'd be given as much time as he'd need, and then some. I'd love to see him develop to become a player (like Cox) who starts as a third key tall, and relieves the starting ruck of Smit/Steene to dominate the opposition relief ruckman. Still an absolute longshot with history against him.
Likelihood: 35%

 

[manicpie]

best under 23's in the world

 

[LuckyLee]

Given I'm bored, I thought I'd take a leaf from some of the US sports and offer a rating of our 'rookie/prospects' - i.e. young players who have yet to establish themselves. For the purposes of this thread, I've drawn the line at anyone who was born in or after 2002, and has played fewer than 30 games. I have ranked them in order of 1 to 14, and provided my opinion of how likely they are to play 100 games with the club. Note - this isn't about who is better right now, but about who I think is more likely to end up making it to 100 games for the club (therefore probably being at least an average contributor). Overall, I think a lot of clubs would have a higher rated list than how my list below has played out, which is a worry for me going forward.

Feel free to provide feedback / alternate ratings.

1. Ed Allan. Has all the tools, and showed some good signs in the final round against Melbourne, but in truth has yet to have put them all together consistently in two years on the list to date. I'm optimistic that he plays 10-15 games this year and cements himself as the best player on this list, and a solid cog in the midfield machine for the next decade.
Likelihood of getting to 100 games: 70%

2. Harvey Harrison. Show a bit in the 15 or so games he's played so far, and looks to be a capable small forward if he gets the chance. Projects to me as a slightly better than a fringe best 23 player who can be consistently dangerous at times crumbing around the goals, but rarely a difference maker. High floor, low ceiling type.
Likelihood: 55%

3. Reef McInness. I'm more of an optimist on Reef than many others, as I thought he was showing promise as a third leading tall over the last two years, even before the shift to key back. I admit I'm also dreaming more on his physical potential (speed, strength, size combo) than his demonstrated output at AFL or VFL, but I think he gets the chance to take a key back post this year and makes it work.
Likelihood: 50%

4. Wil Parker. Probably the next most likely to make it from this list, although starting to get to a lower likelihood overall even at this early point in the list. Looks to be a solid all-round type with the biggest probable gap in pace to lock down a small defender role, but has okay foot skills and okay football nous from what I've seen (although no obvious dominant tool).
Likelihood: 45%

5. Fin Macrae. Has a ceiling of an average midfield contributor in my view, but I feel if he can get through this year and show something, he is in contention of locking down an inside mid spot for a few years. I feel like the likely retirements at end of 2025 of Sidey, Pendles, and Mitchell, and an ageing Crisp, will get him many more minutes in 2026 if he can survive that long. Don't think he's a long termer, but could be a needed medium term fill.
Likelihood: 40%

6. Charlie West. I'll admit, this will appear high given West has barely even arrived at the club, but I think it's more a commentary on how our youth drops away a fair bit from here in my view. West has some characteristics that are appealing right now - in particular a projectable build, decent speed and leap testing, and reported 'aggression'. Not to mention he will most likely get early chances given our dearth of key forward depth.
Likelihood: 40%

7. Will Hayes. Seems like the type that the team will be useful at various points, with solid speed and fitness, solid or better skills, and some appetite for contest. Does look a lot like a Daisy Thomas type without the arial ability, although very conscious that he has no where near the junior record or ceiling that Dais had. Wouldn't be surprised if he has a permanent small forward spot by 2027 for a few years.
Likelihood: 40%

8. Tew Jiath. Has some exciting traits - namely reported speed and leap, but a long way back in my opinion in terms of strength, skills, and football nous, and I'm not yet convinced he puts it all together at this point. I think his kicking needs to the most work, with a high trajectory making him a potential liability coming out of the backline with opposition players able to pick them off. Very hopeful, but not convinced.
Likelihood: 35%

9. Iliro Smit. I initially had him higher, given he has some good physical traits (according to himself), and has show some aptitude for the ruck position late last year, but then remembered that he is still so raw, hasn't had much by way of junior pedigree, and quality rucks generally don't show themselves so early, I toned him down a bit. If he can show an ability to play as a part time key foward as well, his rating goes up.
Likelihood: 35%

10. Oscar Steene. Pretty similar to Smit above in that he has some building blocks, but still a lot of gaps in terms of junior performance and senior performance to date, the longer development time for rucks, and the lack of demonstrated ability to rest deep forward. Appears slightly injury prone also, which is why I've got him slightly behind Roo.
Likelihood: 35%

11. Jacob Ryan. I hope he shows enough at VFL to get some more opportunities at HB or wing, but I doubt it. Looks to have worked hard on his running / fitness, and is a good enough height at 189cm to play a few roles. Let's hope the arial competitiveness / intercepting that was talked up by Hine so much at the point of drafting shows up this year and he has a shot.
Likelihood: 30%

12. Joel Cochran. I loved his highlights showing an ability to lope past all opponents when taking off from half back, but if he isn't going to be a key defender (which he doesn't seem to be) then he will need to have better than average footskills, intercept marking, or one on one ability, which he doesn't appear to have yet. I'd love it if I was wrong here, and he could take a half back role in a couple of years.
Likelihood: 25%

13. Harry Demattia. Not sure about this kid, and admittedly haven't seen much of him (like at all...). Seems a bit of an Adam Kennedy type - a bit short, a bit slow, and a bit average with his skills, and no real demonstration of inside ability. Don't see a future for him as a half back or outside player, and don't think he wins too much ball as an inside mid. Not hopeful.
Likelihood. 25%

14. Ned Long. Tall and strong, but doesn't seem to use those things to win the ball or stop other tall, strong mids. Telling that he wasn't asked to do a defensive job on Cripps (his most close body comparison) when Cripps beat everyone else. Saw some very brief flashes of fight in the game against Melbourne, but think he'll mostly be a small part fill in player for the next 1-2 years and that's it. Was lucky to be retained in my view. Please prove me wrong Ned!
Likelihood. 20%.

And two bonus ratings, noting that I have seen almost nothing but short highlights of one, and literally nothing but basketball highlights and stats of the other....

B1. Tom McGuane. Looks to be a small inside / outside mid with a neat or better short left foot and a talent for accumulation, and good endurance (albeit without break away speed). I liken his style to Zac Merrett, and think he could slot into the midfield as a solid contributor nicely in a few years time.
Likelihood: 55%

B2. Alex Condon. Dreaming on this guy a little bit, given he'd be the tallest ever player to play the game, has at least some football background, would get to the club at age 21 (I think), has some obvious athletic traits (agility, speed for height), and appears to be decent enough in the 'contested' side of basketball (rebounding) to project to ruck contests and even marking. Would need a long time to build a footballer's body, mentality, fitness levels, and skills, but he'd be given as much time as he'd need, and then some. I'd love to see him develop to become a player (like Cox) who starts as a third key tall, and relieves the starting ruck of Smit/Steene to dominate the opposition relief ruckman. Still an absolute longshot with history against him.
Likelihood: 35%

Thanks for your thoughts and efforts - that was a good, calm, considered analysis. And well done for not falling into the common trap of over-rating our players.

The reality is that we have been so starved of early draft picks and late-draft surprise improvers and also so over-reliant on aging stars that virtually every other team would have a better/more-developed U23 crop than us, even though we have the best individual player of all in this category, in Nick Daicos. (Thank heavens for Father-Son!) And McCreery lifts this portion of our list a bit too.

Hopefully in 2025 we see Ed Allan played exclusively as an inside mid in all his VFL and AFL to hasten his development. Unless he makes it, our need for a new top-tier inside mid will be near-desperate by 2026. The idea of Fin Macrae replacing (say) Tom Mitchell in our engine room makes me shudder.

I’m very bullish about HH and think you under-rate his chances of reaching 100 games. I’ve watched him very closely in every AFL game he has played and he has impressed me with his game-reading ability, natural scoring instincts and ability to create goals for teammates with deft little touches that often go unnoticed and don’t register as stats. I reckon he’s a near certainty to play 100 games, unless derailed by more injuries.

Beyond Allan and Harrison, who knows? They all look like long-shots to me.

Gee, we really need a young tall to make the leap to senior Best 23. I look at the Bulldogs’ crop of U23 talls and want to cry with jealousy. Here’s hoping at least one of West, Smit or Steene can improve dramatically enough to make it.

[Genuine question - other than Grundy and excluding father-sons and Internationals, who were the last 100+ game key position players that we DRAFTED? Were they Josh Fraser (No.1, 1999) and Chris Tarrant (No.8, 1997)? If so, yikes, what a drought! Maybe Father-Son will rescue us again in a couple of years’ time via the Rocca brothers’ offspring? ]


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[Jelly Bean]

Thanks for your thoughts and efforts - that was a good, calm, considered analysis. And well done for not falling into the common trap of over-rating our players.

The reality is that we have been so starved of early draft picks and late-draft surprise improvers and also so over-reliant on aging stars that virtually every other team would have a better/more-developed U23 crop than us, even though we have the best individual player of all in this category, in Nick Daicos. (Thank heavens for Father-Son!) And McCreery lifts this portion of our list a bit too.

Hopefully in 2025 we see Ed Allan played exclusively as an inside mid in all his VFL and AFL to hasten his development. Unless he makes it, our need for a new top-tier inside mid will be near-desperate by 2026. The idea of Fin Macrae replacing (say) Tom Mitchell in our engine room makes me shudder.

I’m very bullish about HH and think you under-rate his chances of reaching 100 games. I’ve watched him very closely in every AFL game he has played and he has impressed me with his game-reading ability, natural scoring instincts and ability to create goals for teammates with deft little touches that often go unnoticed and don’t register as stats. I reckon he’s a near certainty to play 100 games, unless derailed by more injuries.

Beyond Allan and Harrison, who knows? They all look like long-shots to me.

Gee, we really need a young tall to make the leap to senior Best 23. I look at the Bulldogs’ crop of U23 talls and want to cry with jealousy. Here’s hoping at least one of West, Smit or Steene can improve dramatically enough to make it.

[Genuine question - other than Grundy and excluding father-sons and Internationals, who were the last 100+ game key position players that we DRAFTED? Were they Josh Fraser (No.1, 1999) and Chris Tarrant (No.8, 1997)? If so, yikes, what a drought! Maybe Father-Son will rescue us again in a couple of years’ time via the Rocca brothers’ offspring? ]


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The Brown/Reid/Dawes draft delivered a three best 22 key position players in 2006 I think it was, but outside of that we haven't landed anything useful.

 

[Dtennent94]

Player - Chance to 100 games
Have included a couple of non-established older players and excluded some pre-established younger ones.

Sullivan (27) - <5%
Good little player, no real weapons, time running out. Sorry, Sully.

Johnson (27) - 5%
You can’t say never with AJ because he has tools. Can’t see him playing beyond this year though, let alone every game for another 4 years. These odds are probably generous.

Dean (23) - 20%
Has good VFL credentials and some recent form to finish this year in the 2’s. We definitely need a player like him, but he’s been a bit injury prone and hasn’t really proved anything to date.

Macrae (22) - 20%
Been dominant in the VFL at times but can’t pull it together in the seniors. Has maybe lacked some opportunity in his best position. Agree that a spot could open for him behind this year.

Parker (22) - 35%
Looks composed, stepped up to the level quickly and has room for improvement with some games and proper pre-seasons/training. Obvious Noble replacement.

McInness (22) - 25%
Looks set to be given a go this year. If he pulls it together as a KPD, he’s almost certain to get to 100 but if he doesn’t he’s cooked. Hard to call. All appendages are crossed!

Long (21) - 20%
Still young and already a beast of a specimen. Tall, strong and fit. Can’t really play AFL footy, though. Might be a confidence thing. Maybe role. Maybe experience. Seems the type that could hover on lists for a long time.

Steene (21) - 15%
Promising, yet injury prone. Also has competition for games, even in the long-term with Cameron, Smit and Condon likely to battle it out with Steene for opportunity. Could also make it at another club.

Harrison (21) - 65%
Has proven more than any of the others on this list. Has a lot of the tools to make it, but unfortunately you never know after an ACL. Hard to see him not being around a long time now with the looming retirement and dearth of strong rookies.

Allan (20) - 70%
Feels very likely to make it to 100 whether he becomes a star or not. If not with us, WCE would take him and pump games into him. Hopefully plays 15+ this year. Seems durable and still very young.

Ryan (20) - 30%
Club seemed high on him early on. Had the concussion that ruined his run of form and maybe hasnt quite recaptured it yet. Looking good physically, has some tools and has time on his side.

Jiath (19) - 35%
Seems to have awareness and the confidence to take the game on. Hopefully it translates into success once his body matches his intentions.

Smit (19) - 15%
Hard to judge him with little exposed form. Has his head screwed on and seemingly all the physical tools. Still young. Making it at AFL is hard though. A little easier when you’re built like this.

DeMattia (19) - 30%
Hard to rate HDM because he hasn’t shown much but did have a nasty finger injury to contend with. Still young so has time to improve. Can see him following a similar trajectory to Macrae and taking a while to establish but also being better than the worst players on the list, so hard to cut.

Don’t feel like rating the new guys. Like most, I am riding the copium train with Jonathan Bro- … I mean, Charlie West. Other than that, we don’t have much to go off.

 

[Dtennent94]

Just realised that Beau McCreery is already on 77 games. That’s gone quickly! Could hit 100 this year.

Has he ever been dropped from the team? Or only missed through injury/suspension?

 

[The Dawes]

Given I'm bored, I thought I'd take a leaf from some of the US sports and offer a rating of our 'rookie/prospects' - i.e. young players who have yet to establish themselves. For the purposes of this thread, I've drawn the line at anyone who was born in or after 2002, and has played fewer than 30 games. I have ranked them in order of 1 to 14, and provided my opinion of how likely they are to play 100 games with the club. Note - this isn't about who is better right now, but about who I think is more likely to end up making it to 100 games for the club (therefore probably being at least an average contributor). Overall, I think a lot of clubs would have a higher rated list than how my list below has played out, which is a worry for me going forward.

Feel free to provide feedback / alternate ratings.

1. Ed Allan. Has all the tools, and showed some good signs in the final round against Melbourne, but in truth has yet to have put them all together consistently in two years on the list to date. I'm optimistic that he plays 10-15 games this year and cements himself as the best player on this list, and a solid cog in the midfield machine for the next decade.
Likelihood of getting to 100 games: 70%

2. Harvey Harrison. Show a bit in the 15 or so games he's played so far, and looks to be a capable small forward if he gets the chance. Projects to me as a slightly better than a fringe best 23 player who can be consistently dangerous at times crumbing around the goals, but rarely a difference maker. High floor, low ceiling type.
Likelihood: 55%

3. Reef McInness. I'm more of an optimist on Reef than many others, as I thought he was showing promise as a third leading tall over the last two years, even before the shift to key back. I admit I'm also dreaming more on his physical potential (speed, strength, size combo) than his demonstrated output at AFL or VFL, but I think he gets the chance to take a key back post this year and makes it work.
Likelihood: 50%

4. Wil Parker. Probably the next most likely to make it from this list, although starting to get to a lower likelihood overall even at this early point in the list. Looks to be a solid all-round type with the biggest probable gap in pace to lock down a small defender role, but has okay foot skills and okay football nous from what I've seen (although no obvious dominant tool).
Likelihood: 45%

5. Fin Macrae. Has a ceiling of an average midfield contributor in my view, but I feel if he can get through this year and show something, he is in contention of locking down an inside mid spot for a few years. I feel like the likely retirements at end of 2025 of Sidey, Pendles, and Mitchell, and an ageing Crisp, will get him many more minutes in 2026 if he can survive that long. Don't think he's a long termer, but could be a needed medium term fill.
Likelihood: 40%

6. Charlie West. I'll admit, this will appear high given West has barely even arrived at the club, but I think it's more a commentary on how our youth drops away a fair bit from here in my view. West has some characteristics that are appealing right now - in particular a projectable build, decent speed and leap testing, and reported 'aggression'. Not to mention he will most likely get early chances given our dearth of key forward depth.
Likelihood: 40%

7. Will Hayes. Seems like the type that the team will be useful at various points, with solid speed and fitness, solid or better skills, and some appetite for contest. Does look a lot like a Daisy Thomas type without the arial ability, although very conscious that he has no where near the junior record or ceiling that Dais had. Wouldn't be surprised if he has a permanent small forward spot by 2027 for a few years.
Likelihood: 40%

8. Tew Jiath. Has some exciting traits - namely reported speed and leap, but a long way back in my opinion in terms of strength, skills, and football nous, and I'm not yet convinced he puts it all together at this point. I think his kicking needs to the most work, with a high trajectory making him a potential liability coming out of the backline with opposition players able to pick them off. Very hopeful, but not convinced.
Likelihood: 35%

9. Iliro Smit. I initially had him higher, given he has some good physical traits (according to himself), and has show some aptitude for the ruck position late last year, but then remembered that he is still so raw, hasn't had much by way of junior pedigree, and quality rucks generally don't show themselves so early, I toned him down a bit. If he can show an ability to play as a part time key foward as well, his rating goes up.
Likelihood: 35%

10. Oscar Steene. Pretty similar to Smit above in that he has some building blocks, but still a lot of gaps in terms of junior performance and senior performance to date, the longer development time for rucks, and the lack of demonstrated ability to rest deep forward. Appears slightly injury prone also, which is why I've got him slightly behind Roo.
Likelihood: 35%

11. Jacob Ryan. I hope he shows enough at VFL to get some more opportunities at HB or wing, but I doubt it. Looks to have worked hard on his running / fitness, and is a good enough height at 189cm to play a few roles. Let's hope the arial competitiveness / intercepting that was talked up by Hine so much at the point of drafting shows up this year and he has a shot.
Likelihood: 30%

12. Joel Cochran. I loved his highlights showing an ability to lope past all opponents when taking off from half back, but if he isn't going to be a key defender (which he doesn't seem to be) then he will need to have better than average footskills, intercept marking, or one on one ability, which he doesn't appear to have yet. I'd love it if I was wrong here, and he could take a half back role in a couple of years.
Likelihood: 25%

13. Harry Demattia. Not sure about this kid, and admittedly haven't seen much of him (like at all...). Seems a bit of an Adam Kennedy type - a bit short, a bit slow, and a bit average with his skills, and no real demonstration of inside ability. Don't see a future for him as a half back or outside player, and don't think he wins too much ball as an inside mid. Not hopeful.
Likelihood. 25%

14. Ned Long. Tall and strong, but doesn't seem to use those things to win the ball or stop other tall, strong mids. Telling that he wasn't asked to do a defensive job on Cripps (his most close body comparison) when Cripps beat everyone else. Saw some very brief flashes of fight in the game against Melbourne, but think he'll mostly be a small part fill in player for the next 1-2 years and that's it. Was lucky to be retained in my view. Please prove me wrong Ned!
Likelihood. 20%.

And two bonus ratings, noting that I have seen almost nothing but short highlights of one, and literally nothing but basketball highlights and stats of the other....

B1. Tom McGuane. Looks to be a small inside / outside mid with a neat or better short left foot and a talent for accumulation, and good endurance (albeit without break away speed). I liken his style to Zac Merrett, and think he could slot into the midfield as a solid contributor nicely in a few years time.
Likelihood: 55%

B2. Alex Condon. Dreaming on this guy a little bit, given he'd be the tallest ever player to play the game, has at least some football background, would get to the club at age 21 (I think), has some obvious athletic traits (agility, speed for height), and appears to be decent enough in the 'contested' side of basketball (rebounding) to project to ruck contests and even marking. Would need a long time to build a footballer's body, mentality, fitness levels, and skills, but he'd be given as much time as he'd need, and then some. I'd love to see him develop to become a player (like Cox) who starts as a third key tall, and relieves the starting ruck of Smit/Steene to dominate the opposition relief ruckman. Still an absolute longshot with history against him.
Likelihood: 35%

the 'rookie me' draft profile of DeMattia describes him as 'an explosive athlete with speed to burn'.
So perhaps a bit slow compared to Gout Gout or else someone has the wrong end of the pineapple here...

Harry De Mattia Draft Profile

An explosive athlete with speed to burn, Harry De Mattia powers away from congestion and hunts down the opposition.

central.rookieme.com

 

[manicpie]

Given I'm bored, I thought I'd take a leaf from some of the US sports and offer a rating of our 'rookie/prospects' - i.e. young players who have yet to establish themselves. For the purposes of this thread, I've drawn the line at anyone who was born in or after 2002, and has played fewer than 30 games. I have ranked them in order of 1 to 14, and provided my opinion of how likely they are to play 100 games with the club. Note - this isn't about who is better right now, but about who I think is more likely to end up making it to 100 games for the club (therefore probably being at least an average contributor). Overall, I think a lot of clubs would have a higher rated list than how my list below has played out, which is a worry for me going forward.

Feel free to provide feedback / alternate ratings.

1. Ed Allan. Has all the tools, and showed some good signs in the final round against Melbourne, but in truth has yet to have put them all together consistently in two years on the list to date. I'm optimistic that he plays 10-15 games this year and cements himself as the best player on this list, and a solid cog in the midfield machine for the next decade.
Likelihood of getting to 100 games: 70%

2. Harvey Harrison. Show a bit in the 15 or so games he's played so far, and looks to be a capable small forward if he gets the chance. Projects to me as a slightly better than a fringe best 23 player who can be consistently dangerous at times crumbing around the goals, but rarely a difference maker. High floor, low ceiling type.
Likelihood: 55%

3. Reef McInness. I'm more of an optimist on Reef than many others, as I thought he was showing promise as a third leading tall over the last two years, even before the shift to key back. I admit I'm also dreaming more on his physical potential (speed, strength, size combo) than his demonstrated output at AFL or VFL, but I think he gets the chance to take a key back post this year and makes it work.
Likelihood: 50%

4. Wil Parker. Probably the next most likely to make it from this list, although starting to get to a lower likelihood overall even at this early point in the list. Looks to be a solid all-round type with the biggest probable gap in pace to lock down a small defender role, but has okay foot skills and okay football nous from what I've seen (although no obvious dominant tool).
Likelihood: 45%

5. Fin Macrae. Has a ceiling of an average midfield contributor in my view, but I feel if he can get through this year and show something, he is in contention of locking down an inside mid spot for a few years. I feel like the likely retirements at end of 2025 of Sidey, Pendles, and Mitchell, and an ageing Crisp, will get him many more minutes in 2026 if he can survive that long. Don't think he's a long termer, but could be a needed medium term fill.
Likelihood: 40%

6. Charlie West. I'll admit, this will appear high given West has barely even arrived at the club, but I think it's more a commentary on how our youth drops away a fair bit from here in my view. West has some characteristics that are appealing right now - in particular a projectable build, decent speed and leap testing, and reported 'aggression'. Not to mention he will most likely get early chances given our dearth of key forward depth.
Likelihood: 40%

7. Will Hayes. Seems like the type that the team will be useful at various points, with solid speed and fitness, solid or better skills, and some appetite for contest. Does look a lot like a Daisy Thomas type without the arial ability, although very conscious that he has no where near the junior record or ceiling that Dais had. Wouldn't be surprised if he has a permanent small forward spot by 2027 for a few years.
Likelihood: 40%

8. Tew Jiath. Has some exciting traits - namely reported speed and leap, but a long way back in my opinion in terms of strength, skills, and football nous, and I'm not yet convinced he puts it all together at this point. I think his kicking needs to the most work, with a high trajectory making him a potential liability coming out of the backline with opposition players able to pick them off. Very hopeful, but not convinced.
Likelihood: 35%

9. Iliro Smit. I initially had him higher, given he has some good physical traits (according to himself), and has show some aptitude for the ruck position late last year, but then remembered that he is still so raw, hasn't had much by way of junior pedigree, and quality rucks generally don't show themselves so early, I toned him down a bit. If he can show an ability to play as a part time key foward as well, his rating goes up.
Likelihood: 35%

10. Oscar Steene. Pretty similar to Smit above in that he has some building blocks, but still a lot of gaps in terms of junior performance and senior performance to date, the longer development time for rucks, and the lack of demonstrated ability to rest deep forward. Appears slightly injury prone also, which is why I've got him slightly behind Roo.
Likelihood: 35%

11. Jacob Ryan. I hope he shows enough at VFL to get some more opportunities at HB or wing, but I doubt it. Looks to have worked hard on his running / fitness, and is a good enough height at 189cm to play a few roles. Let's hope the arial competitiveness / intercepting that was talked up by Hine so much at the point of drafting shows up this year and he has a shot.
Likelihood: 30%

12. Joel Cochran. I loved his highlights showing an ability to lope past all opponents when taking off from half back, but if he isn't going to be a key defender (which he doesn't seem to be) then he will need to have better than average footskills, intercept marking, or one on one ability, which he doesn't appear to have yet. I'd love it if I was wrong here, and he could take a half back role in a couple of years.
Likelihood: 25%

13. Harry Demattia. Not sure about this kid, and admittedly haven't seen much of him (like at all...). Seems a bit of an Adam Kennedy type - a bit short, a bit slow, and a bit average with his skills, and no real demonstration of inside ability. Don't see a future for him as a half back or outside player, and don't think he wins too much ball as an inside mid. Not hopeful.
Likelihood. 25%

14. Ned Long. Tall and strong, but doesn't seem to use those things to win the ball or stop other tall, strong mids. Telling that he wasn't asked to do a defensive job on Cripps (his most close body comparison) when Cripps beat everyone else. Saw some very brief flashes of fight in the game against Melbourne, but think he'll mostly be a small part fill in player for the next 1-2 years and that's it. Was lucky to be retained in my view. Please prove me wrong Ned!
Likelihood. 20%.

And two bonus ratings, noting that I have seen almost nothing but short highlights of one, and literally nothing but basketball highlights and stats of the other....

B1. Tom McGuane. Looks to be a small inside / outside mid with a neat or better short left foot and a talent for accumulation, and good endurance (albeit without break away speed). I liken his style to Zac Merrett, and think he could slot into the midfield as a solid contributor nicely in a few years time.
Likelihood: 55%

B2. Alex Condon. Dreaming on this guy a little bit, given he'd be the tallest ever player to play the game, has at least some football background, would get to the club at age 21 (I think), has some obvious athletic traits (agility, speed for height), and appears to be decent enough in the 'contested' side of basketball (rebounding) to project to ruck contests and even marking. Would need a long time to build a footballer's body, mentality, fitness levels, and skills, but he'd be given as much time as he'd need, and then some. I'd love to see him develop to become a player (like Cox) who starts as a third key tall, and relieves the starting ruck of Smit/Steene to dominate the opposition relief ruckman. Still an absolute longshot with history against him.
Likelihood: 35%

I think your assessment of the players is a little harsh. It's hard because they are so young but I think they are a bit better than your rankings. Not having a go just a bit more bullish

 

[76woodenspooners]

I’m not one of the VFL watchers, but when Collingwood came up to Sydney for the Swans game last year, I wandered down to the Tramway Oval to have a peek at our seconds play. Joel Cochran for the Swans was noticeably dominant - but I didn’t realise that that’s what “pick 47 to the Pies” looks like.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Player - Chance to 100 games
Have included a couple of non-established older players and excluded some pre-established younger ones.

Sullivan (27) - <5%
Good little player, no real weapons, time running out. Sorry, Sully.

Johnson (27) - 5%
You can’t say never with AJ because he has tools. Can’t see him playing beyond this year though, let alone every game for another 4 years. These odds are probably generous.

Dean (23) - 20%
Has good VFL credentials and some recent form to finish this year in the 2’s. We definitely need a player like him, but he’s been a bit injury prone and hasn’t really proved anything to date.

Macrae (22) - 20%
Been dominant in the VFL at times but can’t pull it together in the seniors. Has maybe lacked some opportunity in his best position. Agree that a spot could open for him behind this year.

Parker (22) - 35%
Looks composed, stepped up to the level quickly and has room for improvement with some games and proper pre-seasons/training. Obvious Noble replacement.

McInness (22) - 25%
Looks set to be given a go this year. If he pulls it together as a KPD, he’s almost certain to get to 100 but if he doesn’t he’s cooked. Hard to call. All appendages are crossed!

Long (21) - 20%
Still young and already a beast of a specimen. Tall, strong and fit. Can’t really play AFL footy, though. Might be a confidence thing. Maybe role. Maybe experience. Seems the type that could hover on lists for a long time.

Steene (21) - 15%
Promising, yet injury prone. Also has competition for games, even in the long-term with Cameron, Smit and Condon likely to battle it out with Steene for opportunity. Could also make it at another club.

Harrison (21) - 65%
Has proven more than any of the others on this list. Has a lot of the tools to make it, but unfortunately you never know after an ACL. Hard to see him not being around a long time now with the looming retirement and dearth of strong rookies.

Allan (20) - 70%
Feels very likely to make it to 100 whether he becomes a star or not. If not with us, WCE would take him and pump games into him. Hopefully plays 15+ this year. Seems durable and still very young.

Ryan (20) - 30%
Club seemed high on him early on. Had the concussion that ruined his run of form and maybe hasnt quite recaptured it yet. Looking good physically, has some tools and has time on his side.

Jiath (19) - 35%
Seems to have awareness and the confidence to take the game on. Hopefully it translates into success once his body matches his intentions.

Smit (19) - 15%
Hard to judge him with little exposed form. Has his head screwed on and seemingly all the physical tools. Still young. Making it at AFL is hard though. A little easier when you’re built like this.

DeMattia (19) - 30%
Hard to rate HDM because he hasn’t shown much but did have a nasty finger injury to contend with. Still young so has time to improve. Can see him following a similar trajectory to Macrae and taking a while to establish but also being better than the worst players on the list, so hard to cut.

Don’t feel like rating the new guys. Like most, I am riding the copium train with Jonathan Bro- … I mean, Charlie West. Other than that, we don’t have much to go off.

Wow - I love this! you are even more of a pessimist than I am!

 

[Jelly Bean]

I think your assessment of the players is a little harsh. It's hard because they are so young but I think they are a bit better than your rankings. Not having a go just a bit more bullish

Fair enough, and thanks for your feedback Manic. Which ones do you think have the most better chance at making it than I have suggested?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Think you might be being a touch harsh on a few of the kids.

TJ has been at the club a year and plays a position where we had basically zero injuries and so much surplus of players that Howe is swung forward infrequently. Despite that, still managed a debut game in 2024

Ed Allan has been at the club two years, yes, but he's 20. Turned 20 this year. We're not Carlton where our midfield is so starved of talent that we need to batter the kid and have him carry the midfield at such a young age like Cripps copped. Bullish on Allan. He showed enough in that Melbourne game

The 3 new boys should probably not even be included given we've seen literally nothing of them unless you want to count a couple of training sessions as evidence of their abilities

Iliro is a project who again, we just picked up. Maybe give him a minute

Oscar has unfortunately been injured a lot so more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt

Not sure why McGuane and Condon are there

The rest I can't argue too much with. Mostly ok with those.

 

[LuckyLee]

The Brown/Reid/Dawes draft delivered a three best 22 key position players in 2006 I think it was, but outside of that we haven't landed anything useful.

Good point, although Brown and Dawes were no more than serviceable players. Reid was a genuine gun though and good Draft selection, unfortunately undone by repeated soft tissue injuries.

So over the past 25 years, the only elite tall players that we’ve successfully recruited via the Draft are Grundy, Reid, Fraser and Tarrant. There surely can’t be a club less successful than us in Drafting tall players over than same period.


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[Jelly Bean]

Good point, although Brown and Dawes were no more than serviceable players. Reid was a genuine gun though and good Draft selection, unfortunately undone by repeated soft tissue injuries.

So over the past 25 years, the only elite tall players that we’ve successfully recruited via the Draft are Grundy, Reid, Fraser and Tarrant. There surely can’t be a club less successful than us in Drafting tall players over than same period.


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I reckon Brown was better than serviceable - he played over 130 games as a lock down full back - he'd be the missing piece of our team right now if he was on the list. Reid also played 150+ games, despite his injuries. We'd have won the 2018 flag if he was fit.

Tarrant wasn't drafted in the last 25 years (he was drafted in 1997), and I'd take ruckmen out of the list given they are an entirely different category, so I think your list shrinks to just two in my view - Reid and Brown.