dlanod
Moderator
- Sep 14, 2006
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- Moderator
- #1
Date - Sunday May 10
Time - 3:20pm AEST
Venue - Etihad Stadium
Preview by xplo
Last time we met:
Round 11, 2014 @ Gabba:
Brisbane Lions 14.14 (98) defeated Carlton Blues 13.13 (91)
It's almost 12 months since the Lions last met the blues -- a game which proved something of a turning point for the Lions' 2014 season.
That game might stick in your mind for a handful of reasons:
The Blues came into that game as the 'form team' on the back of a 4 of 5 recent winning record. The remainder of their season was only to deliver another 3 wins and a draw.
After losing 9 of 10 up to the byes, the Lions recovered to win a more respectable 6 of the remaining 12 games.
Welcome to 2015!
So, what happened?
Going into round 6 the teams boast a single win between them and sit 17th and 18th on the table. Bereft of confidence and direction, each stumbles into the game fresh from an embarrassing loss to their natural enemy -- Collingwood and Gold Coast respectively.
So, how do we process this so we can sleep at night?
At times like this -- specifically May the 4th -- I find it's useful to turn to Star Wars!
Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back!
Towards the end of the second Star Wars film (I don't recognise the prequels) Luke is having a pretty bad day.
After discovering the evilest guy in the galaxy is his dad, his best-friend gets frozen, he gets beaten up and has a hand hacked off, before plummeting to almost certain doom. Eventually he find himself clutching precariously to someone's TV aerial on the underside of Cloud City.
Yes, despite all his bravery, discipline and training, he hasn'twon anything or saved anyone. He's bruised, broken and in abject despair. Things couldn't get worse.
And that could be the perfect analogy for Tom Rockliff in particular, and Brisbane in general.
So, what can we take from this?
This 'TV aerial' scene in Empire is the low point in Luke's journey. From this moment on things steadily improve -- he gets a new cool robotic arm, starts wearing more black and even stops kissing his sister.
By the end of the next movie, he's got his friends back, and he's ruthlessly raiding enemy defences with the help of a band of tiny, cute yet aggressive warriors.
See where I'm going with this?
So, sure, there is hope, right?
Brisbane Backline
Carlton have solid key position forwards and we can expect them to load up. At times Henderson, Jones and Casboult can be a handful for good sides.
So far the 2015 version of Brisbane has conceded 20 more marks inside-50 than any other team. While the Lions have scored 8 points a game less than 2014, they've conceded almost 3 more goals per game. Poor Dizzy Gardiner conceded 7 free kicks in defence last week trying to stop a much bigger opponent - surely a case of the 'The Umpire Strikes Backs'.
In short, the defence is weeping goals.
When Joel Patfull was cleared to the Giants, I suspect Leppitsch felt some comfort knowing that Dan Merrett was locked in to play his preferred position of 'Huge Mobile Fist'. While Dan doesn't have Patfull's cool decision-making, his size, closing speed and aggression provide the opportunities for mid-sized defenders to mop up.
He's been a huge loss since controlling Jesse White in round one. While Justin Clark, Gardiner and Paparone has battled manfully against much bigger opponents, getting Merrett back is the closest thing to a quick fix the Lions have. It doesn't sound good though.
After two weeks returning via the reserves, Ryan Harwood will almost certainly return to his customary backline position.
The Midfield
While Carlton's midfield has been a little like 'Neighbours' -- the same characters year after year -- Patrick Cripps is beginning to have a real impact in 2015. Currently he leads the club for contested possessions per game and handballs. He's also fourth for clearances.
Perhaps more amazingly, the much-maligned Cameron Wood ranks second to Judd for clearances. Stef Martin will need to use his physicality to keep Wood off balance.
For Brisbane, the area they might have hoped could disguise their forward and defensive frailties has been a fizzer. While injury to key personnel has certainly wreaked havoc, the Brisbane midfield has been harassed and pushed off the ball too easily.
Though Lester was earmarked for a defensive role during the preseason, I wouldn't be surprised to see his big body added to midfield mix. Zac O'Brien isn't big, but he does have the kind of manic attack on the ball that has been in short recent supply. This should see him return.
While most 2015 numbers are vaguely comparable between the two clubs, Brisbane is currently averaging 10 more clangers per game. That can't continue.
Leppitsch has flagged his loss of patience with the 'Mozzies', so we'll likely see Taylor, Green or possibly both holidaying in the magoos.
Brisbane Forwards
With Staker and McGuane's continued injuries, the Brisbane forward line remains very young and very skinny. Andrews and McStay are promising, but can't be expected to kick a winning score. If Brisbane are to win, they'll need to manufacturer at least 12 goals through general play.
While Rockliff's loss has been a huge hole to fill, Hanley may be the bigger blow to the way the Lions score. Last year -- even before Brown retired -- Brisbane scored most often on the fast break.
It was helter-skelter, fast and crazy, handballing and running up through traffic before the opposition defence has had time to set up. In fact, Brisbane led the competition in distance gained per handball -- 1.9 metres and more than double the league average (0.8).
Hanley is made to play that game. Last year he was able to push over the 1000 metres gained mark in some games.
With Brisbane's loss of confidence, natural ball-winners like Taylor, Redden and Beams now instinctively look (and turn) backwards with their handball. Likewise, average bounces per game has dropped from 8 to less than 5.
By the time a kick tumbles forward the gate has shut and the proverbial horse has bolted. Any gaps have been plugged and Brisbane's tall, skinny kids are hopelessly outnumbered and outmuscled. Game over.
Sure 'Helter skelter' isn't a fool-proof plan, but we have seen it work when Brisbane have combined enough risk and skill together -- just not in 2015.
But it has to click at some time, right?
The Verdict
Line by line the lions look undermanned and underwhelming -- even against a struggling Carlton. As Chris Judd missed last years' clash, this game may be remembered as 'Return of the Juddi'; (Sorry, I had to do it).
I'll be there on Sunday but it's hard to go in with any confidence. My head tells me I'll be heading off to watch a 25 point Carlton win.
But my heart is still looking for a revitalized effort and another season-starting, heart-stopping 7 point Lion win -- a new hope.
Time - 3:20pm AEST
Venue - Etihad Stadium
Preview by xplo
Last time we met:
Round 11, 2014 @ Gabba:
Brisbane Lions 14.14 (98) defeated Carlton Blues 13.13 (91)
It's almost 12 months since the Lions last met the blues -- a game which proved something of a turning point for the Lions' 2014 season.
That game might stick in your mind for a handful of reasons:
- Sauce Merrett's ridiculous 'Full of Merrett' goal from the boundary
- Poor Trent West's ACL (unknowingly launching the Stef Train)
- Hanley's Irish jig footwork
The Blues came into that game as the 'form team' on the back of a 4 of 5 recent winning record. The remainder of their season was only to deliver another 3 wins and a draw.
After losing 9 of 10 up to the byes, the Lions recovered to win a more respectable 6 of the remaining 12 games.
Welcome to 2015!
So, what happened?
Going into round 6 the teams boast a single win between them and sit 17th and 18th on the table. Bereft of confidence and direction, each stumbles into the game fresh from an embarrassing loss to their natural enemy -- Collingwood and Gold Coast respectively.
So, how do we process this so we can sleep at night?
At times like this -- specifically May the 4th -- I find it's useful to turn to Star Wars!
Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back!
Towards the end of the second Star Wars film (I don't recognise the prequels) Luke is having a pretty bad day.
After discovering the evilest guy in the galaxy is his dad, his best-friend gets frozen, he gets beaten up and has a hand hacked off, before plummeting to almost certain doom. Eventually he find himself clutching precariously to someone's TV aerial on the underside of Cloud City.
Yes, despite all his bravery, discipline and training, he hasn'twon anything or saved anyone. He's bruised, broken and in abject despair. Things couldn't get worse.
And that could be the perfect analogy for Tom Rockliff in particular, and Brisbane in general.
So, what can we take from this?
This 'TV aerial' scene in Empire is the low point in Luke's journey. From this moment on things steadily improve -- he gets a new cool robotic arm, starts wearing more black and even stops kissing his sister.
By the end of the next movie, he's got his friends back, and he's ruthlessly raiding enemy defences with the help of a band of tiny, cute yet aggressive warriors.
See where I'm going with this?
So, sure, there is hope, right?
Brisbane Backline
Carlton have solid key position forwards and we can expect them to load up. At times Henderson, Jones and Casboult can be a handful for good sides.
So far the 2015 version of Brisbane has conceded 20 more marks inside-50 than any other team. While the Lions have scored 8 points a game less than 2014, they've conceded almost 3 more goals per game. Poor Dizzy Gardiner conceded 7 free kicks in defence last week trying to stop a much bigger opponent - surely a case of the 'The Umpire Strikes Backs'.
In short, the defence is weeping goals.
When Joel Patfull was cleared to the Giants, I suspect Leppitsch felt some comfort knowing that Dan Merrett was locked in to play his preferred position of 'Huge Mobile Fist'. While Dan doesn't have Patfull's cool decision-making, his size, closing speed and aggression provide the opportunities for mid-sized defenders to mop up.
He's been a huge loss since controlling Jesse White in round one. While Justin Clark, Gardiner and Paparone has battled manfully against much bigger opponents, getting Merrett back is the closest thing to a quick fix the Lions have. It doesn't sound good though.
After two weeks returning via the reserves, Ryan Harwood will almost certainly return to his customary backline position.
The Midfield
While Carlton's midfield has been a little like 'Neighbours' -- the same characters year after year -- Patrick Cripps is beginning to have a real impact in 2015. Currently he leads the club for contested possessions per game and handballs. He's also fourth for clearances.
Perhaps more amazingly, the much-maligned Cameron Wood ranks second to Judd for clearances. Stef Martin will need to use his physicality to keep Wood off balance.
For Brisbane, the area they might have hoped could disguise their forward and defensive frailties has been a fizzer. While injury to key personnel has certainly wreaked havoc, the Brisbane midfield has been harassed and pushed off the ball too easily.
Though Lester was earmarked for a defensive role during the preseason, I wouldn't be surprised to see his big body added to midfield mix. Zac O'Brien isn't big, but he does have the kind of manic attack on the ball that has been in short recent supply. This should see him return.
While most 2015 numbers are vaguely comparable between the two clubs, Brisbane is currently averaging 10 more clangers per game. That can't continue.
Leppitsch has flagged his loss of patience with the 'Mozzies', so we'll likely see Taylor, Green or possibly both holidaying in the magoos.
Brisbane Forwards
With Staker and McGuane's continued injuries, the Brisbane forward line remains very young and very skinny. Andrews and McStay are promising, but can't be expected to kick a winning score. If Brisbane are to win, they'll need to manufacturer at least 12 goals through general play.
While Rockliff's loss has been a huge hole to fill, Hanley may be the bigger blow to the way the Lions score. Last year -- even before Brown retired -- Brisbane scored most often on the fast break.
It was helter-skelter, fast and crazy, handballing and running up through traffic before the opposition defence has had time to set up. In fact, Brisbane led the competition in distance gained per handball -- 1.9 metres and more than double the league average (0.8).
Hanley is made to play that game. Last year he was able to push over the 1000 metres gained mark in some games.
With Brisbane's loss of confidence, natural ball-winners like Taylor, Redden and Beams now instinctively look (and turn) backwards with their handball. Likewise, average bounces per game has dropped from 8 to less than 5.
By the time a kick tumbles forward the gate has shut and the proverbial horse has bolted. Any gaps have been plugged and Brisbane's tall, skinny kids are hopelessly outnumbered and outmuscled. Game over.
Sure 'Helter skelter' isn't a fool-proof plan, but we have seen it work when Brisbane have combined enough risk and skill together -- just not in 2015.
But it has to click at some time, right?
The Verdict
Line by line the lions look undermanned and underwhelming -- even against a struggling Carlton. As Chris Judd missed last years' clash, this game may be remembered as 'Return of the Juddi'; (Sorry, I had to do it).
I'll be there on Sunday but it's hard to go in with any confidence. My head tells me I'll be heading off to watch a 25 point Carlton win.
But my heart is still looking for a revitalized effort and another season-starting, heart-stopping 7 point Lion win -- a new hope.
