Realistically, where do you see us finishing this year?

[TD2010]

Top 8, but the serious dilemma is: can the current leaders and senior players rid themselves of the stench of losing?

It's a mindset that's crusted on with us, and needs absolute winners to overcome.

Who has it??

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

 

[RAPPA]

Much will hinge on the adaptability of the game plan to the cattle. Two walk up start midfielders were added in the off season. We lost a smal forward to retirement but Betts’ 2021 output can be matched by the stock we have. Murphy going wasn’t a loss. Jones however was a huge blow but with change comes opportunities, and so this presents an opportunity to properly test Gov down back and see how OMac goes as the number 2 banana next to Weitering. That to me suggests there’s gonna be some tinkering in the early stages of the season to try to get the formula right, whilst also combatting injuries.

The ruck situation is a little all over the shop - Pitto is serviceable whilst TDK offers a lot of potential but his pre season has been interrupted.

A full pre season to Charlie will be immense. As will be a return to full recovery for Docherty who is just as vital in the back half.

I have a feeling 10-12th but part of that is being jaded at the fact of always going into a pre season with a lot of promise and hope, only to have it evaporate in the first month of footy.

 

[thebluenewdeal]

I don’t know about you guys but I think it’s really important that wherever we finish, it’s on the back of our homegrown talent rather than the recruits we’ve brought in. I would just really love to see us perform admirably across the year with players like fisher, stocker, O’brien, Weiters, Jsos, Charlie, Harry, Durds, Crippa, Walshy and TDK to really become the backbone of what success looks like. I’d be thrilled if we finish with more wins and that group finishing in and around the top 10 in the bnf. To me, that’s what a successful season will look like.

 

[Michael Jezz]

9th or 10th. We need to be injury free to make finals

 

[Blue and Blue]

More chance of perfecting the sawing a lady in half trick than knowing whats going to happen in a new season

ahhh but hope springs eternal

 

[Accidental genius]

Teams we should beat this season are:
Tiggers
Freo
Hawks
Filth
*
Roos
Crows
Aints
Suns
Eagles

So that’s at least 10 wins we should achieve from this list. We’ll play some of them twice so I’m being conservative.

 

[BigBreakfast]

10 to 12 wins. Sneak into 7/8 with some luck. Easiest draw in years.

 

[Bluebag13]

whats realistic? (Not taking a pot at the thread btw)

If you say anything outside 6-12 you'd be deemed unrealistic.

But realistically, most years there is a team who didn't make the 8 the previous year that makes the top 4 and a further 2 that make the top 8.
So realistically, there is always a shakeup.
......yes im the person who put 3-4

 

[FRUMPY]

7th-10th but could also see us 7th-14th - who knows with this club.

 

[blue healer]

With the inclusion of Cerra and Hewitt, a (hopefully) fully fit Cripps, Charlie, Martin and Williams and a potential full season of VFL football to develop our younger players (I think the lost games in the VFL have been an underrated cause of some of our development problems).

Given the above and the probability of a significantly better run with injuries (surely we're due for that) and maturity in the younger players I would have expected, even if we'd have stuck to Teague that we would win at least 12 games this year and play finals and I see no reason now to think any different.

The loss of Jones and injury to Walsh is certainly a setback that we could have done without but I like the idea of McGov down back and the fact that I think, even without Walsh, that old warrier Ed will struggle to make the best 22 only emphasise my expectations.

If this list is anywhere near where many think it is I think nothing I've written is unreasonable.

 

[CaptainCharisma]

7th-10th - depending on luck with injuries, covid etc.
We've gone 7-15 (2019) 7-10 (2020) and 8-14 (2021). I would like a minimum of 10 wins.

We've got the talent to take a spot in the 8. It may take some time to get the new coach's style embedded into the group. Expect back half of the year to be better than the start.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

If everything clicks, and we get a good run with injuries for a change, I think we could top out at 5th in a best case scenario.
Obviously injuries and how long it takes the team to pick up on Voss' game plan can play a huge part, but I'd be disappointed with anything lower than 9th.
It's going to be bloody tight in the middle of the ladder though.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Top 8, but the serious dilemma is: can the current leaders and senior players rid themselves of the stench of losing?

It's a mindset that's crusted on with us, and needs absolute winners to overcome.

Who has it??

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

If Melbourne can do it, anyone can.

 

[tarczonandjane]

I’ve gone 11-12. That said, my perspective heading into the season is pessimistic. I’ve been optimistic for years. But last year really knocked the wind out of my sails, and I’m not sure I can stand it again.

So the following is a deliberately downbeat take.

I don’t think the midfield is deep enough. When we did our combined BF best 22, I couldn’t find anything which enthused me beyond Walsh, Cripps, Hewett, and Cerra. I’ve basically given up on Dow and O’Brien, I think Kennedy and Setterfield makes the midfield too slow (unless Cripps isn’t playing), and anybody else who might rotate through there is either too inexperienced (Philp and Carroll) or has been ruled out of midfield rotations by the coaching team (Stocker and Williams). Plus, Pittonet isn’t up to it, and De Koning is injury prone and can’t last the season.

The forward line looks promising. But it’s a new coaching panel and game plan, and we haven’t got the class to get the ball to them cleanly on a regular basis. The defence badly relies on Weitering. I don’t have much faith in McGovern or O-Mac as defensive pillars. Our small to mid defenders look ok with Stoker and Williams, but I don’t have as much time as many others do for Saad. Anything we get out of Docherty is pretty miraculous and a huge testament to him.

On a more optimistic note, I am looking forward to watching the game plan evolve. I also think it’s great we should (fingers crossed) get a season out of our stand-alone VFL, which will hopefully see players develop. I’ll have my eyes on Durdin, Carroll, Philp, and Motlop. I also like Honey, and think his physical approach will be well regarded by the coaches. A new coaching panel should also see a revival from one or two players who may have been burnt out by the previous regime. I’m not sure of the best spot for Setterfield, but he possibly fits into this group. Maybe Jack Martin

19

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

as well.

But overall, I struggle to get us finishing better than 11-12. I think I’d be happy enough with a full season out of the VFL, the emergence of 2 or 3 youngsters (similar to Stocker last year), and the re-emergence of some players who have been on our list for a while.

 

[JuddgementDay]

6-9 for me.

We just have to make finals this year.
So 9th would hurt, but it's not out the question.

IMO realistically, I'm breaking down as follow - but, this is all subjective...

Contending with:

• Essendon
• Fremantle
• GWS
• Geelong
• Richmond
• St Kilda
• Sydney

Below us:

• Adelaide
• Collingwood
• Gold Coast
• Hawthorn
• North
• West Coast (massive injuries)

Above us:

• Brisbane
• Melbourne
• Port Adelaide
• WBD

I didn't reference this, but I've got pretty close...

 

[Chookaradley]

7-10, with a Jacob Weitering

23

Jacob Weitering

Age

27

Ht

195cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.8

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

4.7

3star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.3

3star

MG

189.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

16.8

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

6.0

5star

T

0.8

3star

MG

263.4

4star

injury relegating us to as low as 15th. He is that important, and irreplaceable for a backline which is already thin on talls

 

[macky99]

Same range as the blues tbh, best case scenario 6th-10th but realistically, 13th-15th, basically in the exact same boat, new coach, new game plan, a few superstars like grundy moore and jdg if he gets his sh*t together, but we don’t have a forward line good enough to consistently kick a winning score, and you can’t expect to consistently win games of footy when your only kicking around 10 goals a game, no matter how good your backs and mids are. not trying to start an argument mate I think it’s a very interesting debate, I’ve seen people predict carlton to finish either ends of the ladder they are a hard one to pick, fwiw I see them playing finals in 2023, could potentially be a blessing in disguise to miss finals this year and hit the draft again hard, we’ve seen how crucial some of melbournes kids like jackson and kozzie were in breaking their drought.

Carlton's best 8 is significantly better than Collingwood and has the right age profile.

Aside from a terrible run with injuries Blues expectation should be 6-8th.

 

[Beyond Blue]

Same range as the blues tbh, best case scenario 6th-10th but realistically, 13th-15th, basically in the exact same boat, new coach, new game plan, a few superstars like grundy moore and jdg if he gets his sh*t together, but we don’t have a forward line good enough to consistently kick a winning score, and you can’t expect to consistently win games of footy when your only kicking around 10 goals a game, no matter how good your backs and mids are. not trying to start an argument mate I think it’s a very interesting debate, I’ve seen people predict carlton to finish either ends of the ladder they are a hard one to pick, fwiw I see them playing finals in 2023, could potentially be a blessing in disguise to miss finals this year and hit the draft again hard, we’ve seen how crucial some of melbournes kids like jackson and kozzie were in breaking their drought.

Really putting it all on the line their mate saying your team will finish anywhere from 6th to 15th.

 

[Beyond Blue]

Same range as the blues tbh, best case scenario 6th-10th but realistically, 13th-15th, basically in the exact same boat, new coach, new game plan, a few superstars like grundy moore and jdg if he gets his sh*t together, but we don’t have a forward line good enough to consistently kick a winning score, and you can’t expect to consistently win games of footy when your only kicking around 10 goals a game, no matter how good your backs and mids are. not trying to start an argument mate I think it’s a very interesting debate, I’ve seen people predict carlton to finish either ends of the ladder they are a hard one to pick, fwiw I see them playing finals in 2023, could potentially be a blessing in disguise to miss finals this year and hit the draft again hard, we’ve seen how crucial some of melbournes kids like jackson and kozzie were in breaking their drought.

Also a bit ironic that you enter the discussion to accuse some Carlton supporters of being unrealistic by saying we’ll make the 8 and then you state the Pies best case is finishing 6th.

In my view Carlton’s upside is better than Collingwood’s and Carlton’s downside is less than Collingwood’s and I’d imagine that’s a view held in the majority by most knowledgeable football pundits.

 

[Aphrodite]

Someone being realistic
You finished 13th last year with a relatively good injury run(compared to other teams around you) you have a new coach, likely a new complete game plan I think 6th-10th for your mob is most definitely best case scenario but I can’t see it
If you take out mckay, you had Eddie who kicked 25 odd goals, he’s gone now, and your next highest was 15(owies) and this is all with an extremely attacking gameplan
Curnow can potentially become a 1-2 goal a game player but other then that is there anyone else on your list that I can see getting into that range? To win games you need to kick goals, and to kick goals you need a decent forward line, without mckay and curnow there’s nothing and you can’t realistically rely on either of them to play a full season, let alone carry you to finals.
13th-15th for me.

Your mob finished 17th last year.

Very good injury run? Did you even see our injury list?

You can't see us finishing 6th - 10th but finishing 13th - 15th.

Just incase you weren't aware, CCurnow hasn't played for a few seasons.

Such floored logic & all over the place.




This is our Board and we can be as realistic as we please!

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

How are we with injuries?
How quickly can the gameplan click?
Can some of Voss' champion attitude rub off on the playing group?

They will determine where we are at the end of the year.

 

[Gethelred]

I have no idea. Can see us anywhere between 16th and 3rd. Too many variables, too much hope interfering with too much despair.

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

When reading this thread, I do think back to last year. In my opinion (and probably that of many others), we were poor overall. It was just disappointing. And yet, we were (astoundingly) still in with a shot of making the 8 late in the season, despite everything. We were closer than we felt..... But the chance was there. This gives me significant hope for this year

 

[Gethelred]

The sides I wouldn't give Carlton much chance of beating in '22 include: Melbourne/Brisbane/GWS
The sides I wouldn't be surprised to lose to include - any team in the competition on any given day.

Anything could happen - except finishing top4.

A year like Richmond had in 2013, in which their double up games saw them play against the bottom 4, could do it. Port made the top 4 in 2014 due to their adoption of the INXS song, a benevolent draw, and home ground advantage.

The fixture's a shit show.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Someone being realistic
You finished 13th last year with a relatively good injury run(compared to other teams around you) you have a new coach, likely a new complete game plan I think 6th-10th for your mob is most definitely best case scenario but I can’t see it
If you take out mckay, you had Eddie who kicked 25 odd goals, he’s gone now, and your next highest was 15(owies) and this is all with an extremely attacking gameplan
Curnow can potentially become a 1-2 goal a game player but other then that is there anyone else on your list that I can see getting into that range? To win games you need to kick goals, and to kick goals you need a decent forward line, without mckay and curnow there’s nothing and you can’t realistically rely on either of them to play a full season, let alone carry you to finals.
13th-15th for me.

Melbourne's leading goal kicker was Fritsch.
Their leading tall, Brown, only played 13 games.
The trick was that they had a good spread and could count on someone like Petracca kicking goals as a mid. Their top 10 averaged 12 goals between them.

If Harry can get his 2.5-3 a game, Curnow can hopefully get 1.5-2. Your resting rucks can get 1 a game between the two (assuming we go with TDK/Pitto combo). TDK averaged 0.54 a game last year (Gawn got 0.64). Hard to know where Gov is going to play, but he's been good for a goal a game for most of his career. Owies got over a goal a game. Honey averaged 1.5 in his limited run of games and looks poised to cement a spot. Fisher has proven in his best year that didn't have too many injury interruptions that he's capable of 18 touches and nearly a goal a game rotating mid/fwd. Then you've got our mids in Cripps, Kennedy, Walsh, Martin who have been getting around half a goal a game or better.
That's around 12 goals or better from 10-11 players.

And that's without taking into account that the return of Charlie will mean that teams can't double team Harry. The impact of a more balanced game plan from Voss that should create more turnovers on the rebound from midfield pressure. The impact of a player like Cerra who had one of the best inside 50 to score ratios in the league last year. And the potential for a couple of young, unproven small forwards to burst onto the scene and take over Eddie's spot, with Durdin and Motlop impressing in preseason, in a position that's traditionally quite easy to make an impact in from an early age compared to key positions.

Realistically, it's quite easy for things to turn quickly in the AFL. As Bulldogs in 2015, Melbourne 2021, Brisbane 2019, Port 2020, Saints 2020 and many others have shown, you can go from outside the 8 to playing finals.