Preview Rnd 3 - Carlton v Gold Coast - 7.25PM Saturday 9th April @ Metricon
- Thread starter Wickzki
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Plowman isnt ready yet
Round 1 2017
You have to reward good form in the 2s, particularly if there are out of form players in the 1s.
- Jul 14, 2012
- 8,886
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Hows the parking for those who drive?If there's anyone here who's travelling up to Metricon for the game next week and has any questions, you're all more than welcome to post anything on our board - we're always happy to help the opposition travelers so you if you need anything, you know where to find it
P.S. Can't wait to finally see Weitering and Cripps in the flesh on Saturday
P.P.S. Can't be serious about playing Gorringe, surely?
Pretty damn ordinary. Particularly with the restrictions in Ross St nowadays.
- Dec 8, 2007
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White out for Buckley to run off half back which seems to be his strength.
Cuts a tall, re adds some speed, mongrel etc down back.
Cuts a tall, re adds some speed, mongrel etc down back.
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
Alright, I'm not saying this will be a weekly thing but:
Statistical Snapshot (League comparison)
Stats are averages
Carlton:
Disposals: 362 (11th)
Kicks: 201 (10th)
Handballs: 161 (10th)
Marks: 95 (3rd)
Marks inside 50: 14 (6th)
Inside 50: 50.5 (10th)
Opposition I50: 57.5
Goals: 11 (13th)
Score Against: 111.5 (5th)
Rebound 50's: 39.5 (8th)
Clearances: 32 (14th)
Tackles: 56.5 (16th)
Contested Possession: 129.5 (16th)
Uncontested Possession: 230.5 (8th)
Disposal Efficiency: 76% (3rd)
Gold Coast:
Disposals: 377.5 (7th)
Kicks: 202 (9th)
Handballs: 175.5 (6th)
Marks: 85.5 (9th)
Marks inside 50: 14.5 (=4th)
Inside 50: 58.5 (3rd)
Opposition I50: 50
Goals: 18 (2nd)
Score Against: 80 (14th)
Rebound 50's: 37 (12th)
Clearances: 34.5 (11th)
Tackles: 81 (3rd)
Contested Possession: 136 (10th)
Uncontested Possession: 244 (6th)
Disposal Efficiency: 74.3% (8th)
Ok so what do we learn:
Gold Coast are more dangerous inside 50 and Carlton concede more inside 50's
From 117 entries into their 50 Gold Coast has produced a goal roughly 30% of the time, compared to Carlton's 21%. This could be particularly worrisome given we have conceded across two games 115 inside 50 entries. If our average holds and GC production does as well they could score 17 goals against us, an unassailable target with our capacity.
Clearances will matter less than how the teams utilize the ball on the outside:
Gold Coast lost the clearances this week against Fremantle as well as inside 50's but still kicked a winning score. We lost clearances against Richmond but still had considerably more inside 50's. Both teams have gained edges over opponents with better ball use on the outside, the Suns 69% kicking efficiency being credited with their success over Fremantle.
Gold Coast tackle more:
The average tackle difference is huge, Gold Coast averaging in the area of 25 more a game so far. Carlton will have to adapt to this intense pressure.
So the overall outlook isn't great. Our strength in ball movement hasn't converted into a winning score yet, and the Suns seem to be able to do that. If we can shut out their forwards then our outlook is a lot better.
Fingers Crossed
Statistical Snapshot (League comparison)
Stats are averages
Carlton:
Disposals: 362 (11th)
Kicks: 201 (10th)
Handballs: 161 (10th)
Marks: 95 (3rd)
Marks inside 50: 14 (6th)
Inside 50: 50.5 (10th)
Opposition I50: 57.5
Goals: 11 (13th)
Score Against: 111.5 (5th)
Rebound 50's: 39.5 (8th)
Clearances: 32 (14th)
Tackles: 56.5 (16th)
Contested Possession: 129.5 (16th)
Uncontested Possession: 230.5 (8th)
Disposal Efficiency: 76% (3rd)
Gold Coast:
Disposals: 377.5 (7th)
Kicks: 202 (9th)
Handballs: 175.5 (6th)
Marks: 85.5 (9th)
Marks inside 50: 14.5 (=4th)
Inside 50: 58.5 (3rd)
Opposition I50: 50
Goals: 18 (2nd)
Score Against: 80 (14th)
Rebound 50's: 37 (12th)
Clearances: 34.5 (11th)
Tackles: 81 (3rd)
Contested Possession: 136 (10th)
Uncontested Possession: 244 (6th)
Disposal Efficiency: 74.3% (8th)
Ok so what do we learn:
Gold Coast are more dangerous inside 50 and Carlton concede more inside 50's
From 117 entries into their 50 Gold Coast has produced a goal roughly 30% of the time, compared to Carlton's 21%. This could be particularly worrisome given we have conceded across two games 115 inside 50 entries. If our average holds and GC production does as well they could score 17 goals against us, an unassailable target with our capacity.
Clearances will matter less than how the teams utilize the ball on the outside:
Gold Coast lost the clearances this week against Fremantle as well as inside 50's but still kicked a winning score. We lost clearances against Richmond but still had considerably more inside 50's. Both teams have gained edges over opponents with better ball use on the outside, the Suns 69% kicking efficiency being credited with their success over Fremantle.
Gold Coast tackle more:
The average tackle difference is huge, Gold Coast averaging in the area of 25 more a game so far. Carlton will have to adapt to this intense pressure.
So the overall outlook isn't great. Our strength in ball movement hasn't converted into a winning score yet, and the Suns seem to be able to do that. If we can shut out their forwards then our outlook is a lot better.
Fingers Crossed
Out: Phillips, Rowe, Lamb, Everitt
In: Byrne, Jones, Buckley, Walker
If you work hard in the VFL and perform you should get your chance.
In: Byrne, Jones, Buckley, Walker
If you work hard in the VFL and perform you should get your chance.
Experimental
Norm Smith Medallist
Not great, but definitely not bad either. There are Park n Ride precincts available at Boowaggan Road and at Nerang Station, which are both about 5 minutes away by bus. Free shuttle bus leaving every few minutes from each Park N Ride.
That's what I usually do, and it's pretty effective. Queues aren't really all that bad after the games either, so it's a good option with plenty of parks available if you're wanting to drive!
Otherwise there are paid private parks available at the random golf clubs and stuff near the stadium. There are signs out the front of each one, but I'm not overly familiar with them because they're not 'official' or advertised online to research
HBF
Flying Scotsman
- Sep 24, 2002
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Byrne needs to play this week. We need more run and good users of the footy. Buckley should come back in as well.
I live on the coast and am a member of both Carlton and the Suns. Carlton being no.1 obviously, mostly a suns member because they're my local team and it means I get to go to an AFL match every fortnight.
Anyhow, I feel that stopping the uber aggressive play by Saad will be key to stopping the Suns run, as he explodes out of contests. He is a genuine 70-80 metre player when he gets the ball. They have a sort of tall-running defense. Steven May and Rory Thompson down back, Thompson 200cm are the spine then around them they have guys like Harbrow and Saad who will feed off the crumb and run out of defense. I wouldn't mind seeing Buckley come in to the side to play a defensive forward role on one of them, Perhaps Tutt as well in for Lamb.. Walker coming in an playing out of the goal square could work, using his speed against the taller defenders. Hope Charlie stays in the team for a similar reason, mobility is key in this one. Looking for Kerridge to impact in that area as well.
They aren't really a tall forward line either, Just Lynch and Sam Day then the smalls. So I think Rowe may come out of the team. Either that, or they will match Jamo with Lynch and Rowe with Day, leaving Weitering as 3rd tall to intercept mark, could see us going either way with that one. Jack Martin is a great marking medium-small forward. We'll probably see Tuohy on him.. Matera is a very good user by foot. Steve Johnson esque with his ability to kick the ball accurately at sharp angles and the vision to match. But there is an issue with him running both ways, Byrne would make a good matchup on him. He has Matera covered for pace comfortably and could rebound off him. He just needs to make sure he runs back in defense!
Midfield will be interesting, obviously Ablett is the key here. But I've noticed this season he hasn't gone in for the hard ball as much as he has in the past. Still gaining confidence from that shoulder last season. I don't see a match up for Cripps on the Suns Roster as it stands. So him being the unit he is in the midfield could get the ball first and getting it out of the pack CLEANLY and deny Ablett the outside ball he's been getting this season. It will probably be Prestia v Cripps allot in the inside, so hopefully Cripps uses his size there. The way they could get us is with there outside run. I think they have us covered on the outside run, but we have them covered inside. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top in the end.
This is a game that Kreuzer could dominate and show the competition why we wanted to bring him back so badly. The suns no.1 ruckman at the moment is Nicholls and he is very average around the ground. If Kreuzer is worth what we think he is worth, he should take him to the sword. Nicholls doesn't have great balance and isn't a very good mark at all and we all know Krooze is very strong and balanced for his size should take advantage. I'm repeating myself, but he really should dominate him around the ground. Ruck contest Nicholls may win, he has a decent jump and agility in that area. But Krooze should win comfortably overall.
As it stands I am quietly confident about this game. For all the good things the Gold Coast have done this season we match up very well with them. I do question the GCs physical toughness, would like to see us try to work them over a bit. They are at there best when they are free to run out of defense.
Anyhow, I feel that stopping the uber aggressive play by Saad will be key to stopping the Suns run, as he explodes out of contests. He is a genuine 70-80 metre player when he gets the ball. They have a sort of tall-running defense. Steven May and Rory Thompson down back, Thompson 200cm are the spine then around them they have guys like Harbrow and Saad who will feed off the crumb and run out of defense. I wouldn't mind seeing Buckley come in to the side to play a defensive forward role on one of them, Perhaps Tutt as well in for Lamb.. Walker coming in an playing out of the goal square could work, using his speed against the taller defenders. Hope Charlie stays in the team for a similar reason, mobility is key in this one. Looking for Kerridge to impact in that area as well.
They aren't really a tall forward line either, Just Lynch and Sam Day then the smalls. So I think Rowe may come out of the team. Either that, or they will match Jamo with Lynch and Rowe with Day, leaving Weitering as 3rd tall to intercept mark, could see us going either way with that one. Jack Martin is a great marking medium-small forward. We'll probably see Tuohy on him.. Matera is a very good user by foot. Steve Johnson esque with his ability to kick the ball accurately at sharp angles and the vision to match. But there is an issue with him running both ways, Byrne would make a good matchup on him. He has Matera covered for pace comfortably and could rebound off him. He just needs to make sure he runs back in defense!
Midfield will be interesting, obviously Ablett is the key here. But I've noticed this season he hasn't gone in for the hard ball as much as he has in the past. Still gaining confidence from that shoulder last season. I don't see a match up for Cripps on the Suns Roster as it stands. So him being the unit he is in the midfield could get the ball first and getting it out of the pack CLEANLY and deny Ablett the outside ball he's been getting this season. It will probably be Prestia v Cripps allot in the inside, so hopefully Cripps uses his size there. The way they could get us is with there outside run. I think they have us covered on the outside run, but we have them covered inside. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top in the end.
This is a game that Kreuzer could dominate and show the competition why we wanted to bring him back so badly. The suns no.1 ruckman at the moment is Nicholls and he is very average around the ground. If Kreuzer is worth what we think he is worth, he should take him to the sword. Nicholls doesn't have great balance and isn't a very good mark at all and we all know Krooze is very strong and balanced for his size should take advantage. I'm repeating myself, but he really should dominate him around the ground. Ruck contest Nicholls may win, he has a decent jump and agility in that area. But Krooze should win comfortably overall.
As it stands I am quietly confident about this game. For all the good things the Gold Coast have done this season we match up very well with them. I do question the GCs physical toughness, would like to see us try to work them over a bit. They are at there best when they are free to run out of defense.
Good thing is we have some options : Byrne, Walker, Buckley, Jones, Jaksch etc.
I doubt Plowman would be rushed in that quick.
But sure in 2-4 weeks you can add Plowman and Sumner, to very good talents, to the list on possible INs (or depth as some say).
Seriously though, if Byrne doesn't get a gig I will be amazed.
Lamb toils hard and has nice skills but he lacks X factor needed for a small forward to kick goals. Maybe he'd be better in a better side. It is tough work for forwards in a team that inc NAB games is 0-5 so far this year. Difference between Lamb and Everitt though is the former looks like he is busting his ass.
I would drop the latter. He doesn't appear to me to be bringing the intensity required as part of the rebuild. Some of his one on one efforts have been poor.
I'd actually give Jones a go. He looks pretty committed in the Twos. He is only, what, 24? And a reset to me means everyone gets their slate cleaned and another chance.
Jacksh shouldn't get a gig until he learns to kick. Simple as that.
I doubt Plowman would be rushed in that quick.
But sure in 2-4 weeks you can add Plowman and Sumner, to very good talents, to the list on possible INs (or depth as some say).
Seriously though, if Byrne doesn't get a gig I will be amazed.
Lamb toils hard and has nice skills but he lacks X factor needed for a small forward to kick goals. Maybe he'd be better in a better side. It is tough work for forwards in a team that inc NAB games is 0-5 so far this year. Difference between Lamb and Everitt though is the former looks like he is busting his ass.
I would drop the latter. He doesn't appear to me to be bringing the intensity required as part of the rebuild. Some of his one on one efforts have been poor.
I'd actually give Jones a go. He looks pretty committed in the Twos. He is only, what, 24? And a reset to me means everyone gets their slate cleaned and another chance.
Jacksh shouldn't get a gig until he learns to kick. Simple as that.
Seriously though
Run is the key, without compromising defensive aspects if possible.
The other non-negotiable is effort, unless we have an agenda to keep Everitt's trade value up,
he has to go back.
We need an effective tall forward line Kreuzer, Levi and Phillips are not hitting the scoreboard.
Winning the taps is over rated if the taps are not to advantage. One has to go, logically it is
Phillips. I don't mind "Sauce" but the balance is not there.
Simpson and Docherty are missing too many targets out of defence, even by hand on occasion.
We need a quality ball user, who can also supply some run. Byrne is a no-brainer. He needs to
take the Simmo accumulator/distributor role, rather than being brought in for a more defensive role.
Of our list only Byrne, Viojo-Rainbow and possibly Sheehan have the skill set to provide that run out
of defense. Docherty and Tuohy to maintain more defensive roles. Doc is a gun in so many ways, but
is not great at hitting targets.
The short term key to an effective forward line is the kid, Jacob Weitering. He can play anywhere on the
ground. We will have Plowman to add to the defence soon enough. Jammo, Rowey and Whitey are all
limited and not the future, but can lock down if we get enough two way running up the ground, and limit turnovers.
Phillips and Everitt out for Byrne and Walker.
B: Tuohy, Jamison, White
HB: Docherty, Rowe, Byrne
C: Simpson, Cripps, Murphy
HF: Wright, Weitering, Kerridge
F: Lamb, Casboult, Walker
R: Kruezer, Gibbs, E.Curnow
Int: C.Curnow, Boekhorst, Graham, Thomas.
Daisy to play more quarterback type role, becoming more of a backline organiser.
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Yep.
You can't do a Malthouse and stamp a guys papers, just like you can't have one of your first 22 taking the piss and not getting dropped.
Names don't matter, reward effort not contracts.
HBF
Flying Scotsman
- Sep 24, 2002
- 156,316
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What about "out of effort" players in the 1's????
Big Sim is Back
Cancelled
What was up with Walker yesterday?
Tight calf.
Big Sim is Back
Cancelled
Thanks. Hope he slots back in on Saturday.
i was disappointed when rowe was brought in for walker. thought it cost us some run which i think we lack.
i would bring in byrne smith buckley walker for everitt lamb phillips white and would have either gorringe or rowe as fwd/ruck. if walker isnt right give jaksch a go as both can play fwd/back tall or small.
my line up would be
buckley jamison tuohy
docherty weitering simpson
kruezer gibbs murphy
boekhurst cripps byrne
kerridge casboult thomas
smith gorringe/rowe walker/jaksch
e.curnow wright graham c.curnow
at metricon i really believe we need run more than ever.
i would bring in byrne smith buckley walker for everitt lamb phillips white and would have either gorringe or rowe as fwd/ruck. if walker isnt right give jaksch a go as both can play fwd/back tall or small.
my line up would be
buckley jamison tuohy
docherty weitering simpson
kruezer gibbs murphy
boekhurst cripps byrne
kerridge casboult thomas
smith gorringe/rowe walker/jaksch
e.curnow wright graham c.curnow
at metricon i really believe we need run more than ever.
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