Round 1 Tips and Crowd Expectations

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Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods said:
How so?
We lost Tuohy as the only significant contributor and regular best 22 player. Jamison only played 5 games and was a shadow of his best. Walker only 11 and nowhere near his best.
Jamo replaced by Marchbank, which gives us the option of moving him, Weitering or Rowe forward if we want. Walker replaced by Silvagni. Neither of those two really contributed in last year's loss. Everitt replaced by Charlie Curnow. Pickett replaces Buckley, who only had 3 touches in round 1 last year. Already 4 upgrades.
Murphy had no preseason last year and came into round 1 underdone. Chance for Fisher, Polson or McKay to debut. SPS still an outside chance if he plays in VFL practice match this weekend, but might be underdone.
In no way are we worse on paper. We're better on paper, but some of the names aren't proven yet.

FYI, the count in this thread is 22 for Tigers, 17 for Blues. If you take out the biased votes, it's 18 for Tigers and 14 for Blues, so even the neutrals aren't convinced.
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Curnow and silvani are not going to vastly be better then walker and Everett in there 2nd years. Picket atm is inconsistent while marchbank is an improvement tuhoy run wise is a big loss
 
Sando22 said:
FWIW I think we'll get thumped but I reckon he's allowed to tip who he wants so why don't you do the same and stop being a ballbag.
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ballbag should be the new name when people tip the dees, the process is set
 

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HumanMeatball said:
Curnow and silvani are not going to vastly be better then walker and Everett in there 2nd years. Picket atm is inconsistent while marchbank is an improvement tuhoy run wise is a big loss
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Curnow 2016
6 games, 5 goals, 10 disposals, 3 marks
Everitt 2016
13 games, 17 goals, 14 disposals, 5 marks
No reason why Curnow can't match that if he can play 15+ games. He's also expected to be playing more mid time. Everitt also lacked defensive pressure and chose when he wanted to go last year. Just an improvement in effort will be favourable.

Silvagni 2016
8 games, 7 goals, 10 disposals
Walker 2016
11 games, 9 goals, 12 disposals
He's virtually matched Walker's output last year anyway.

Pickett has no runs on the board in the seniors, but his JLT form was promising and he wasn't taken #4 for no reason. Suspect he would already be ahead of Buckley, who seemed to go backwards last year. Marchbank gives us flexibility with 3 tall defenders that can all go forward.
Tuohy is definitely a loss, but we can generate enough run through Docherty, Simpson, Armfield and maybe even Smedts and with Gibbs, Murphy and Cuningham working the wings. Simpson, Docherty and Gibbs are our leaders for meters gained anyway.
 
Carlton vs Richmond 32 pts, 78k
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs 19 pts, 81k
St Kilda vs Melbourne 14 pts, 41k
Sydney vs Port Adelaide 35 pts, 32k
Essendon vs Hawthorn 12 pts, 88k
Gold Coast vs Brisbane 40 pts, 15k
North Melbourne vs West Coast 29 pts, 24k
Adelaide vs GWS 9 pts, 48k
Fremantle vs Geelong 30 pts, 35k

I won't give the precise predicted crowd numbers for these matches but adding the rounded crowds I predicted from each match in round 1, I got 442,000 people in total. Which is not only the highest crowd total from round 1 in our history but also from any other round in history. The highest total crowd numbers from any round was back in round 15 2013 which had a total crowd number of 371,212 people.

However, I'd put more stock into average crowd numbers from a particular round rather than the total of a round. Since 2012, we've generally had 9 matches per round rather than the 8 we had before both GC and GWS arrived. The highest average crowd number we've had from a particular round in the history of our game was back in round 1 2007. This was when 8 matches were played per round rather than the 9 we have now and the average crowd numbers in that round was 45,568.

That will be broken come round 1 next week I reckon, as those 3 games we have at the MCG will probably draw near or over 80,000 which will really inflate the total and average crowd numbers for that round. My projected average crowd number for round 1 was rounded at 49,111 which will break the previous average crowd number record in a particular round (round 1 2007, 45,568).

Should be a ripper round 1
 
I think Carlton vs Richmond will be closer than some think, last year Carlton were thought of as complete walkovers heading into the game and Richmond were touted as the obvious winner which eventually they were but not as easy as some thought. It's the opening game of the year, if Carlton can't come out and have a crack in that game then they won't all year.

Richmond will win but it'l be closer than some think in my opinon.
 
Carlton def. by Richmond 12 pts, 75k
Collingwood def. by Bulldogs 24 pts, 82k
Sydney def. Port 60 pts, 40k
North def by WCE 26 pts, 22k
Gold Coast def. Brisbane 15 pts, 20k
Essendon def. by Hawthorn 12 pts, 88k
Adelaide def. GWS 10 pts, 50k
St Kilda def. Melbourne 4 points, 40k
Fremantle def. by Geelong 28 points, 40k
 
Re doing my tips

Richmond by 33pts (86k)
Collingwood by 13pts (76k)
Swans by 4pts (26k)
North by 23pts (27k)
Suns by 25pts (20k)
Bombers by 9pts (78k)
Crows by 17pts (40k)
Saints by 29pts (33k)
Freo by 19pts (40k)
 
Righteo said:
This is some juicy bookmark material. Carlton are not nearly as bad as some think.
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Carlton are the worst or second worst team in a very good league right now, so they are as bad as what people think but compared to previous years and teams finishing close to the bottom.....they aren't THAT bad but really that doesn't matter it's about the now.
 

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tim_saints said:
I think Carlton vs Richmond will be closer than some think, last year Carlton were thought of as complete walkovers heading into the game and Richmond were touted as the obvious winner which eventually they were but not as easy as some thought. It's the opening game of the year, if Carlton can't come out and have a crack in that game then they won't all year.

Richmond will win but it'l be closer than some think in my opinon.
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Going by this thread the majority of people are thinking the same. Going by the amount of people tipping Carlton most think 50/50 game.

Though I personally think we should go in as favourites with a small possibility of an upset.
 
Last edited:
Thought I'd give it a crack

Carlton vs Richmond 10 pts, 78k
Collingwood vs Bulldogs 45 pts, 85k
Sydney vs Port 22 pts, 29k
North vs WCE 35 pts, 23k
Gold Coast v Brisbane 8 pts, 20k
Essendon vs Hawthorn 13 pts, 85k
Adelaide vs GWS 18 pts, 50k
St Kilda vs Melbourne 9 points, 38k
Fremantle vs Geelong 23 points, 35k

I think it'll be a very close round in terms of points so keen for AFL to get started!
 
Carlton----2.1.13-5.3.33-10.6.66-11.9.75
Richmond-4.1.25-6.4.40-9.7.61---12.8.80

Collingwood-------5.2.32-7.4.46-10.5.65-12.9.81
Western Bulldogs-3.1.19-5.1.31-7.3.45---11.5.71

St Kilda----7.2.44-10.5.65-12.7.79-15.9.99
Melbourne-1.3.9---4.5.29--8.10.58-12.14.86

Sydney--------5.3.33-11.7.73-15.10.100-16.13.109
Port Adelaide-1.0.6---3.1.19--5.3.33-----10.7.67

Essendon-6.2.38-11.4.64-12.7.79--14.8.92
Hawthorn-2.1.13-6.3.39---10.5.65-15.8.98

Gold Coast-3.1.19-5.3.33-10.4.64-12.7.79
Brisbane----4.2.26-8.3.51-11.5.71-13.6.84

North Melbourne-1.4.10-2.5.17--4.10.34-7.12.54
West Coast--------2.0.12-6.1.37-10.3.63-15.5.95

Adelaide-------------------5.2.32-7.3.45-10.5.65-16.8.104
Greater Western Sydney-2.3.15-5.6.36-9.9.63--10.10.70

Fremantle-4.1.25-8.3.51-11.4.70-13.6.84
Geelong---3.1.19-4.3.27--7.5.47--11.7.73
 
The GWS and Adelaide game is certainly the stand out game. I believe Adelaide Oval is our great advantage that will get allow us to deal with a very good GWS side. As long as the weather holds up their will easily be 48,000 plus to the game. Last year we had 46,737 on a Saturday night, expect that to be toppled. If we can get the first few goals of the game the crowd will be up for it and make an intimidating atmosphere, the giants do not often playing in front of big crowds interstate so we have to use this to our advantage.
 
Richmond 45 points 82K
Bulldogs 17 points 70K
Swans 33 points 32K
St Kilda 28 points 34K
Suns 10 points 14K
Hawks 3 points 60K
West Coast 51 Points 33K
GWS 8 Points 48K
Geelong 13 points 37K
 
JPetro83 said:
Crows cant win without Sloane and Tex... they are both 50/50 so even if they do play they will be underdone
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Game being at Adelaide oval gives me a lot of confidence. GWS were in a similar position when we played them last year and we accounted for them. I reckon will give them a game and a half. EDDIE will so his usual.
 
JPetro83 said:
Crows cant win without Sloane and Tex... they are both 50/50 so even if they do play they will be underdone
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Injuries not good. We're down an important Cog in the midfield as well. Injuries to either side not good. Hard to read the impact of Cog's absence, been a long time since we played without him. Both of your risks have an obvious impact and hope they both make it.
 

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Round 1 Tips and Crowd Expectations

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