Game Day Round 11 - Walyalup vs Collingwood - Friday 24/05/2024 @ 18:10 AWST - The Bing Match Preview

[Paracleet]

And forgot the main point: Saints were also very slight favourites on the models last week.

 

[Daddoo]

Betting markets are a reflection of common opinion, hedging and psychology.

St Kilda were favourites last round.

One game a trend does not make.

 

[ubiquitous226]

Betting markets have multiple factors involved. They don't always reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome based on rational assessments; they also have to frame the market based on where money flows for irrational reasons* or they would lose money on certain outcomes. Also these days the odds are partially guided by all the predictive models (The Squiggle being the one most people have heard of on here), and on those models we are the slight favourite. Currently +10 on the Squiggle, and it will likely increase further after the teams come out tonight.


*Hence the bigger clubs generally have slightly shorter odds they should due to the larger numbers of people betting on their own team to win for emotional reason. Or average punters betting against teams with long term poor records (like ours) because of that record rather than the immediate facts and patterns in front of them.

Yeah well said, I was broadly referring to that as hedging but more appropriately probably balancing the odds to manage risk yet maximise inflows of punters cash.

 

[ubiquitous226]

One game a trend does not make.

No it doesn't, but there has been plenty of assessment of using favourites for tipping comps and they come out reasonably, but never amazingly.

 

[james haish]

Freo by 7 behinds. We’ll control most of the game but it will never feel like it. A few extremely nervous moments in the last two minutes but we’ll kick the final goal (it will be kicked by Walters)

 

[BettercallSaul]

Does the “Schultz kicks two goals means we win” stat still apply?

 

[chaosball32]

Big game this one, I think we’ll have a pretty good idea of where we are at as a team this year after this game.

We win, we are 7-4 and our season is starting to take shape nicely. We lose, we are 6-5 and looking like a mid-table team. One might argue that if we can’t beat a depleted Collingwood team with 5 changes and 2 debutants at home then we probably don’t deserve to make finals, and I’d be inclined to agree.

I’m not usually an advocate for our slow and controlled style of play but I think if it’s going to work against any team it will work against a relatively inexperienced Collingwood team who are lacking firepower up forward. Our high handball game won’t work against their high pressure game, if we can slow the game down, take away momentum and neutralise their press where we can I think it’ll go a long way. They’re not a particularly tall team so if we can keep their smalls out of the game as much as possible with a kick mark style I don’t see how they work around it.

You’d expect Young to tag N.Daicos in the middle. If you really want an out of left field option, throw Switta on him, he’s got the speed and appropriate pressure to match and it’s not like he’s been having much value up forward anyway.

Friday night, nationally broadcast, spotlight on us against a team we really should beat. In years past, this would spell a historical bedshit for us. If we are really a serious team this year then this shouldn’t be the case tomorrow night.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Jesus the Stevic Nicolls 1-2 punch as umpires. Need to be 4 goals better than them to break even

 

[sumavich]

50 games Freo 8 v Pies 7
100 games Freo 7 v Pies 5
Games Av Freo 89.7 v Pies 105.1

Don't know if 105.1 is our lowest.

From the Pies board, need a shower!
intriguing, jeez we are still bloody young

 

[stax on the mull]

If they line up as named, they'll have 10 players over 100 games plus Schultz who will be playing his 100th. Quaynor 95 games.

We have 8 players under 50 games, Collingwood have 7.

 

[FreoGirl]

How did we end up with Stevic AGAIN?!? he's the gift that keeps on giving lol

wonder if he got one of the 12 business class seats next to McRae

 

[FreoGirl]

If they line up as named, they'll have 10 players over 100 games plus Schultz who will be playing his 100th. Quaynor 95 games.

which is why we sometimes need to be more realistic about our kids

forecast is now no rain until after 11, so they can do this

 

[Dockers v Channel7West]

How did we end up with Stevic AGAIN?!? he's the gift that keeps on giving lol

wonder if he got one of the 12 business class seats next to McRae

He has a job to do on us in the last 5 minutes of the game..as he has done in the past for Carlton
It’s no surprise given the VFL umpiring appointments that he has been sent for Collingwood

 

[FreoGirl]

He has a job to do on us in the last 5 minutes of the game..as he has done in the past for Carlton
It’s no surprise given the VFL umpiring appointments that he has been sent for Collingwood

we had him ;ast weekend, which makes the rotations seem a bit strange

the umpiring was Ok but was starting to look sus in the last quarter - will just get Darcy to eye ball him

 

[Deveraux]

Is Walyalup really unbeaten?

 

[Purple Jesus]

Is Walyalup really unbeaten?

Yes

 

[pK75]

We should dominate their midfield, but as we saw against Sydney, Port and Carlton that doesn’t mean we’ll win, need to capitalise on our opportunities when they come as the pies are a team that can go coast to coast from a kick in and cause serious damage. Kick goals, reset at the centre bounce and go again is the order of the day.

 

[noise36]

We should dominate their midfield, but as we saw against Sydney, Port and Carlton that doesn’t mean we’ll win, need to capitalise on our opportunities when they come as the pies are a team that can go coast to coast from a kick in and cause serious damage. Kick goals, reset at the centre bounce and go again is the order of the day.

Last nights game Sydney vs Dogs, dogs had way more inside fifties as one point (sounds familiar?) but Sydney just way more efficient at scoring, the good teams are ruthless in front of goals, need to be that team.

I have no idea how we are favorites tonight but we can beat them if we are switched on, they are away with some injuries.

 

[Spirit Level]

Officially a sell out

 

[Deathly]

So was Darcy selected on the same selection and fitness criteria as every other player or his own one that always sees him barely get through a game and get pulled out again after?

 

[FUS_RO_DAH]

That Walyalup logo goes so hecking hard. Up the undefeated 'Yup.

Freo by shitloads.

 

[Stinky Lomax]

With DeGoey out I’d like to see us sit on N Daicos & quell his influence.

We’ll definitely win I50’s if we do that & just need to maximise entries.

We used to win when Schultz kicked 2 or more, wonder if that still stands?

 

[poshman]

The Friday afternoon is shaping up delightfully! You've had a great week at work, the weather has been stunning and we get to enjoy a great game tonight!

Watching our team grow, our young guns developing and our midfield unit becoming one of the best in the league. This is the most enjoyable season in a long time. The beginning of the decade of dominance, the early chapters are being written now.

What a time to be alive!!

 

[Footskill]

The Friday afternoon is shaping up delightfully! You've had a great week at work, the weather has been stunning and we get to enjoy a great game tonight!

Watching our team grow, our young guns developing and our midfield unit becoming one of the best in the league. This is the most enjoyable season in a long time. The beginning of the decade of dominance, the early chapters are being written now.

What a time to be alive!!

And then the rest of your weekend is ruined lol jk

 

[poshman]

And then the rest of your weekend is ruined lol jk

Haha! If I choose for it to be ruined... I get it though. I think we will win this one, or go very close. We win and it is a very strong start to the year.

Either way I get a weekend with the beautiful family after tonight. A lot to look forward too!