Round 15
Swans (14th) v Suns (17th)
4:35 pm Saturday
SCG
Weather : 18 Sunny
Straight up this is a danger game.
The corresponding game last year marked the rapid decline in the Swans. Going from a top 4 chance to scraping into the finals and culminated in an abysmal finals performance.
This year Gold Coast have the youngest list (the departure lounge was full at the end of last year) and the team that played last week against the Saints had an averaged age of 23.4 years with 60 games experience. They had 5 players born this century. Compare that to the Swans team that played the Hawks who are a year older and average a 100 games of experience. Only Blakey was born in the 2000’s.
Early season form had the Suns at 3-1 before a 9 game unbroken losing streak. Swans were 1-3 but have gone 4-5 since.
Last year the Suns were averaging 60 points but conceding 100. This year their attack is averaging 62 but only conceding 86 points.
Last year the Swans averaged 82 points and only conceded 74. This year averaging 78 points but conceding 82.
What does all this mean? Suns attack and defence has improved but not enough to grab the 4 points more consistently. Swans have gone backwards although the last two games have been above average performances compared to the rest of the season.
Key contests
1. Ruck
Witts v Sinclair (if he isn’t fit then this will be a bath)
Witts is 3 years younger, 9 cm taller and 15kg heavier. When comparing the two this year they have mirrored each other statistically other than for hitouts (a key stat for a ruck) which Witts averages an extra 18 a game. Sinclair has gone forward more than Witts with a goal every 3 games. Witts tends to drop back in the defensive 50 with a few more rebound 50’s to his name.
Sinclair should nullify Witts around the ground but will probably be beaten in the hitouts.
2. Midfield
Given Witts is the leading the way in hitouts it has helped his midfield stay competitive in games for longer.
It's easier to name all the midfield players that have left the Suns. Harder to name their current midfielders but they do have a lot of young talent running through their midfield. Fiorini and Swallow are their leading possession winners for the year and worth watching.
Swans midfield relies on Parker and Hewett to lead the way. Kennedy came back last week but looked short of gallop. Hopefully Clarke is left to tag himself as his disposals are so poor its now a danger to my television screen if I have to watch him play.
3. Forwards/Defence
Forwards- Suns
King (202 cm) and Wright (203 cm) are the tall targets for the Suns. Wright proved a handful in the preseason (although it’s only JLT it’s something) and will test our defence. King is only in his first season but is already averaging a goal a game from his 5 outings.
Defence- Swans
Rampe (189 cm), Melican (195 cm) and Aliir (194 cm) will give up some height so if the Suns are able to lead out into space they will struggle to defend.
Forwards - Swans
Reid (196 cm) and McCartin/Blakey although not as tall as their Suns counterparts will provide problems for the Suns defence.
Suns - Defence
The Suns defence will rely on Day (197 cm and Hombsch (194 cm). Without Franklin the Suns defenders will thank whatever God they believe in for small mercies. Franklin has scored more career goals than the Suns list that played last week.
However ignore the key forwards and focus on the small forwards in this game. Sexton and Papley are their respective teams leading goal kickers.
4. Coaches
Dew leads 1-0 after last year. Although the results aren't on the board yet, the Suns have been far more competitive this year (except for the Crows and Giants games). The Suns have also managed to have players re-commit to the club long term.
Longmire is a wanted man with the Godfather offer from Norf to come his way. With this hanging over his head the Swans have improved in the last month (to improve his pay day) with the players better executing the game style.
5. Crowd
More people to watch this game than last week. The AFL could draw a conclusion that people enjoy watching football during day light.
6. Ins/outs
Franklin (inj) - McCartin
Sincliar (if fails Concussion test) - Cameron
7. Conclusion
Swans are playing a better brand of football now than earlier in the year. The midfield has too much class and will reverse last years result as complacency shouldn't be an issue and a record a win by 1-39.
Swans (14th) v Suns (17th)
4:35 pm Saturday
SCG
Weather : 18 Sunny
Straight up this is a danger game.
The corresponding game last year marked the rapid decline in the Swans. Going from a top 4 chance to scraping into the finals and culminated in an abysmal finals performance.
This year Gold Coast have the youngest list (the departure lounge was full at the end of last year) and the team that played last week against the Saints had an averaged age of 23.4 years with 60 games experience. They had 5 players born this century. Compare that to the Swans team that played the Hawks who are a year older and average a 100 games of experience. Only Blakey was born in the 2000’s.
Early season form had the Suns at 3-1 before a 9 game unbroken losing streak. Swans were 1-3 but have gone 4-5 since.
Last year the Suns were averaging 60 points but conceding 100. This year their attack is averaging 62 but only conceding 86 points.
Last year the Swans averaged 82 points and only conceded 74. This year averaging 78 points but conceding 82.
What does all this mean? Suns attack and defence has improved but not enough to grab the 4 points more consistently. Swans have gone backwards although the last two games have been above average performances compared to the rest of the season.
Key contests
1. Ruck
Witts v Sinclair (if he isn’t fit then this will be a bath)
Witts is 3 years younger, 9 cm taller and 15kg heavier. When comparing the two this year they have mirrored each other statistically other than for hitouts (a key stat for a ruck) which Witts averages an extra 18 a game. Sinclair has gone forward more than Witts with a goal every 3 games. Witts tends to drop back in the defensive 50 with a few more rebound 50’s to his name.
Sinclair should nullify Witts around the ground but will probably be beaten in the hitouts.
2. Midfield
Given Witts is the leading the way in hitouts it has helped his midfield stay competitive in games for longer.
It's easier to name all the midfield players that have left the Suns. Harder to name their current midfielders but they do have a lot of young talent running through their midfield. Fiorini and Swallow are their leading possession winners for the year and worth watching.
Swans midfield relies on Parker and Hewett to lead the way. Kennedy came back last week but looked short of gallop. Hopefully Clarke is left to tag himself as his disposals are so poor its now a danger to my television screen if I have to watch him play.
3. Forwards/Defence
Forwards- Suns
King (202 cm) and Wright (203 cm) are the tall targets for the Suns. Wright proved a handful in the preseason (although it’s only JLT it’s something) and will test our defence. King is only in his first season but is already averaging a goal a game from his 5 outings.
Defence- Swans
Rampe (189 cm), Melican (195 cm) and Aliir (194 cm) will give up some height so if the Suns are able to lead out into space they will struggle to defend.
Forwards - Swans
Reid (196 cm) and McCartin/Blakey although not as tall as their Suns counterparts will provide problems for the Suns defence.
Suns - Defence
The Suns defence will rely on Day (197 cm and Hombsch (194 cm). Without Franklin the Suns defenders will thank whatever God they believe in for small mercies. Franklin has scored more career goals than the Suns list that played last week.
However ignore the key forwards and focus on the small forwards in this game. Sexton and Papley are their respective teams leading goal kickers.
4. Coaches
Dew leads 1-0 after last year. Although the results aren't on the board yet, the Suns have been far more competitive this year (except for the Crows and Giants games). The Suns have also managed to have players re-commit to the club long term.
Longmire is a wanted man with the Godfather offer from Norf to come his way. With this hanging over his head the Swans have improved in the last month (to improve his pay day) with the players better executing the game style.
5. Crowd
More people to watch this game than last week. The AFL could draw a conclusion that people enjoy watching football during day light.
6. Ins/outs
Franklin (inj) - McCartin
Sincliar (if fails Concussion test) - Cameron
7. Conclusion
Swans are playing a better brand of football now than earlier in the year. The midfield has too much class and will reverse last years result as complacency shouldn't be an issue and a record a win by 1-39.
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