Preview Round 6 - Sydney v Brisbane Lions

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Date: Sunday 5 May

Time: 1.10pm AEST

Venue: SCG

Tickets: http://premier.ticketek.com.au/shows/show.aspx?sh=SWANS0613

Media: FoxFooty (7mate into Sydney, Brisbane etc)

Weather: Min 14 Max 25 Possible morning shower.


Preview by Caiphus

I have to admit that, last year, I was wrong.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/rd-15-sydney-v-brisbane-lions.959587/

I think if they make the top 4 it will be the high point of a list management strategy that is likely to see them bouncing between 4 and 12 without really ever being able to scale the highest heights.”

We all know how the season finished for the Swans; congratulations to them on that effort.
The Sydney Swans as a club has a mythical aura around them for many pundits in the footy media. There are clichés that exist in a paradigm entirely of their own:

  • The “Bloods” culture
  • They recruit under-performing players from other teams and help them reach their potential
  • Their list contains very few “elite” players compared to other top teams.
They just won a premiership and the media still keeps on building them up as some sort of plucky underdog from a footy frontier.


I fell into the trap of under-rating their list, and I’m not the only one. McVeigh, O’Keefe, Kennedy, Jack and Bolton are as good as any first-string midfielders in the competition as a group, and have a lot of goals in them as well.

Their rucks are very good, and quite versatile. Canadian rugby convert Pike is continually improving and is in better form than Mumford at the moment. Their physical presence combined with the Swans extractors means they are a tough proposition at a stoppage. They also cause problems for defenders when they rest forward.

Everyone knows how good Sydney’s defence is. Richards and Grundy are a great key back pairing with few weaknesses. Nick Smith and Marty Mattner are both very good shut down defenders as well against small-medium opponents. With Rhys Shaw injured, Malceski has been the main attacking threat from the backline, but the Swans strong midfield have been able to get back and help out a fair bit so although their defensive 6 is more on the dour side, they are still able to transition well into attack.

Sydney’s forward line scoring ability is probably their main weakness. Sam Reid is undoubtedly talented as a KPF, but he is still too young and inconsistent to be leading the line. Adam Goodes has been a champion for years but unfortunately is no longer as influential as he was in his prime and is obviously on the decline. We don’t have to worry about star recruit Kurt Tippett yet as he is still a few weeks away from pulling on his Swans jumper.

Ben McGlynn is a goal a game small forward with great defensive pressure. The forward line is generally filled with a resting ruck and rotating mids. Whoever goes forward though is generally good for a tackle and chase meaning Sydney are quite adept at locking the ball into their attacking 50 until a score is registered. Sydney’s leading scorer last year was Lewis Jetta but he is really out of form at the moment. Young second tier mids such as Hannebery and Parker are also a threat.

Last time we played:
There were positive signs in the first quarter as Brisbane got off to a reasonable start. Skill errors suddenly killed our momentum and let Sydney get on top. We fought well until half-time but it always looked like we were struggling against the tide until the Swans tore us apart in the 3rd quarter. McVeigh got the 3 votes and Sam Reid kicked 6.

Looking ahead:
Sydney are arguably out of form at the moment, but are still winning. The premiership hangover is going to have to end at some point and with our record at the SCG over the years it will most likely be against us.

The Lions pre-season success has meant other teams have set up to neutralise our game-plan instead of just expecting their own to win and we have not adjusted well. Man-to-man marking has taken away our ability to switch the play and run through the corridor, and we have panicked and bombed the ball forward instead of having the composure to keep possession and wait for an option to present itself.

Key players have been injured and out of form, and at times we have looked sluggish and disinterested.

Against Melbourne there were some positive signs that we might be on the way to returning to our best – and we will need to against Sydney. We need to win the contested ball and use it well to have any chance. Our tackles have to stick and against a well-drilled outfit we can’t afford any passengers.

Whoever is in our forward line we have to kick to their advantage. Mayes is one of the few available players we have at the moment who I am confident of doing this, He kicks it to space and forces players to move to it. Hanley is the other and he should return after his suspension and hopefully play as well as he did against Sydney last time.

Brown will have a tough time against either of Richards or Grundy if we don’t give him every chance to mark the ball, and we need to get crumbers to either side of the contest and shepherd for them.

Merrett and Patfull seem to be getting back to form now, at least, so I am pretty confident that we will be able to neutralize the Swans pure forwards, this will require our midfield has to be there to support and then run hard the other way to give options coming out of defence.

It’s a small ground so we shouldn’t be afraid of running both ways as much as possible, and we need options to present so that we can get uncontested possessions.

Ultimately I believe that Sydney’s midfield will prove too strong and that we would do well to be within 3 goals at the final siren.

Hopefully this year I am wrong again though and we smash them.

 
"The Lions pre-season success has meant other teams have set up to neutralise our game-plan instead of just expecting their own to win and we have not adjusted well. Man-to-man marking has taken away our ability to switch the play and run through the corridor, and we have panicked and bombed the ball forward instead of having the composure to keep possession and wait for an option to present itself.

This is a brilliant insight, I cannot agree more!


 

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Nice preview Caiphus - I have a soft spot for the swans going back to the days when I was coached by Mark Brownings oldman and Mark would occasionally come and train with his brother and us... I agree with your sentiments, Sydney have for close to a decade epitomised the term a champion team, their work ethic for each other is what grassroots footy is all about, add a a descent sprinkle of skill/discipline and culture and it's not surprising that they have only missed the finals once in the last decade.

Having said that, they had a 'soft' draw to start the year and their home record this year is no better than ours and could be on the verge of slide. [see what I did there?]

The ressies to kick off dew at 9:30am and hopefully signal a start to a great day - somehow I'm thinking if we get within 5 goals it will be a good day.
 
great preview, though i'll say Sydney by 58 points, which is around the same from our last years game
 
Just want to be accountable in this game.

No more floggings.

Sums it up perfectly. If we want to be taken seriously as a football side, we can't keep being on the end of 40+ margins. Even if it is against the reigning premiers. It just can't happen anymore.
 
Just want to be accountable in this game.

No more floggings.
Spot on Ceebee, I think most of us would take a 3-4 goal loss that showed a lot of effort and determination over 4 quarters.
 
Sydney to win this one by 60+ points. If they ease down on the line, we might get within 7 goals.

Marlon Brando considers the outcome for Lions fans this week:

 

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Great preview! After a solid game vs the Demons to build on, we have to travel to the SCG and vs Sydney. Just great... I am usually very positive heading into all games however, Sydney at the SCG and Geelong in Geelong are the two games I feel hopeless in. Will be happy with a good, tough 4 quarter effort and a respectable loss. A win and I will be shocked but stoked!!!!

GOOOOOOO LIIIOOOOOOONNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I am of the firm belief that Sydney will beat us by 70 points.

So I will tip us by 15 points :)
 
I am already imagining Rockliff/Golby/Adcock having the ball in hand and wondering whether its half time as they can't find a blooooody team mate.
 
In the mix: round six

BRISBANE LIONS - The Lions will welcome back suspended winger Pearce Hanley for the stiffest challenge in the competition when they play the Swans in Sydney on Sunday. While defender Matt Maguire (leg) is also a chance to return, most focus will centre on Brownlow medallist Simon Black. Black has played two matches in the reserves on his comeback from knee surgery, but coach Michael Voss said he would take no chances with his midfield superstar. He's probably a 50-50 bet. - Michael Whiting

SYDNEY SWANS -
It seems unlikely the Swans will make too many inclusions for the clash against the Lions but running defender Rhyce Shaw, who has been absent with an abdominal injury, will certainly come into calculations if he is judged fit to play. Andrejs Everitt is the player most likely to be in the gun. Everitt was subbed out of the Anzac Day clash in New Zealand, after taking the place of premiership hero Mitch Morton from the previous week. Morton will undoubtedly be hoping his name pops up at selection again but spots remain tight. If the Swans lose patience with Sam Reid, Tommy Walsh and Jesse White are the tall forward options waiting for a crack. - Cameron Noakes
 
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