Round 7:
West Coast Vs Port Adelaide or: How I Learned to
Stop Worrying and Love the Melts
Ah, Port. 36 premierships in 147 years of operation, rivalling even the mighty Old Easts of the WAFL; a titan of South Australian football.
Oddly enough, an AFL club also based in SA actually has the same name. In 21 years of existence, they've won a single premiership and produced some of the worst football performances in recent memory.
No other club has been as entertaining in the past couple years as the Power (apart from Freo). Ever since our early 2015 victory as underdogs, they've surged from one choke to the next, becoming the biggest team of frontrunners in AFL history. The past 5 months have been particularly glorious:
Oddly enough, an AFL club also based in SA actually has the same name. In 21 years of existence, they've won a single premiership and produced some of the worst football performances in recent memory.
No other club has been as entertaining in the past couple years as the Power (apart from Freo). Ever since our early 2015 victory as underdogs, they've surged from one choke to the next, becoming the biggest team of frontrunners in AFL history. The past 5 months have been particularly glorious:
In response, Port decided to address their issues in the 2017 offseason by:
* Bringing champion small forward Lindsay Thomas home.
* Trading in Jack Watts, Tom Rockliff and Steven Motlop, players renowned for their ability to perform under pressure.
* Give legendary coach Ken Hinkley a contract extension.
Truly inspiring.
Anyway, onto the game.
Selections:
Going off their changes thread, I'm guessing Port will go in like this:
HB: Byrne-Jones - Hombsch - Clurey
C: Johnson - Wines - Polec
HF: Boak - S Gray - Powell-Pepper
F: Westhoff - Dixon - Neade
R: Ryder - Ebert - Gray
Int: Motlop - Howard - Watts - Houston
In: Ryder, Powell-Pepper
Out: Wingard, Amon (unlucky)
Mostly the same team from he 2017 EF loss, with Wingard being the most notable. Robbie Gray should begin in the FP/HFF with rotations through the middle; he'll effectively be Wingard's replacement. SPP will replace Gray, and with Ryder back, you've got a pretty settled lineup.
I'd back in our structures to beat Port. Dixon will be more dangerous since he won't be rucking; out of McGovern, Barrass and Schofield, I reckon Schoey could do a shutdown job on Charlie given his WAFL form. Barrass has been on and off this season while being solid defensively, however, I think that's more down to our overall team defence then Tom's form. We need a body on Dixon at all times and Schoey has the athleticism to match him (with help from both Gov and Barrass).
Ah Chee is a chance to come in against his old club. At the derby on Sunday, I had chat with a relative who works at the club, and he reckons Sneeze is 50-70% chance of debuting; if he does, I expect he'll play HFF with stints in the middle and bring some added grunt to the lineup.
Petrucelle should stay in (but might come out for Ah Chee).
Nelson might need to come in as Jetta is under an injury cloud. In that case, Hurn could potentially have a slightly quieter game given Jett's role (although I don't think that will be the case).
Hutch would be unlucky to miss after a great game at WAFL level, but I doubt he'll make it due to team balance.
I predict we could go in with these 3 possible lineups:
Prediction 1:
B: Hurn - Schofield - Sheppard
HB: Cole - McGovern - Duggan
C: Gaff - Redden - Masten
HF: Cripps - Darling - Petrucelle
F: LeGod - Kennedy - Lycett
R: Naitanui - Yeo - Shuey
Int: Sheed - Rioli - Barrass/Nelson - Waterman
In: Schofield/Nelson
Out: Jetta (injury)
Either Schoey would come in for Jetta at FB, or Nelson would on the bench with Barrass starting. Probably the most likely changes.
Prediction 2:
B: Hurn - Schofield - Sheppard
HB: Cole - McGovern - Duggan
C: Gaff - Redden - Masten
HF: Cripps - Darling - Ah Chee
F: LeGod - Kennedy - Lycett
R: Naitanui - Yeo - Shuey
Int: Sheed - Rioli - Barrass - Waterman
In: Schofield, Ah Chee
Out: Jetta (injury), Petrucelle (unlucky)
I'm a bit torn up atm: I really, really want to see Ah Chee debut, but Petrucelle requires a block of games to show his wares. There's arguements for both sides overall:
* Getting Sneeze in against Port would help ease him in before the next big 3 games, plus he's a senior body and would provide more.
* Petch needs a block of games for his development.
Waterman can't be dropped, so it's either Petch or Ah Chee, and I'm honestly not sure who I would prefer. Maybe I'm just being impatient.
Prediction 3:
HB: Watson/Yeo - McGovern - Duggan
C: Gaff - Redden - Masten
HF: Cripps - Darling - Sheed
F: LeGod - Kennedy - Lycett
R: Naitanui - Yeo - Shuey
Int: Ah Chee/Cole - Rioli - Barrass - Waterman
In: Ah Chee/Watson
Out: Jetta (injury)
In this scenario, Watson would debut as a replacement for Jetta. He's silky, quick and hard at it, and could potentially offset the loss of Jetts with his precision kicking (he is prone to the odd brain fade however).
Ah Chee could come in with Yeo swinging back to cover Jetta. He's a slightly more safer selection over Watson, as Yeo already has proven form on the HBF. Overall, both choices would be good decisions.
Key Matchups:
* Slyce/Naitanui Vs Ryder:
Should be an interesting battle. Ryder is coming back from a 5 week injury and might be a little rusty. Without a ruck in 2017 he dominated both our clashes and was deserving of the AA spot. In comparison, Slyce was phenomenal in the derby, and has arguably played better then Nic for the past 2 weeks (despite that, Nic's still be massively influential). Overall, the best ruck combo in the country should have Ryder's measure.
* Shep Vs Gray:
To sum it up: an AA form Shep will wear Robbie like a glove.
* Our Midfield Vs Ports:
They'll be missing Wingard due to injury, and he usually runs through the middle to great effect. Yeo, Shuey, Sheed, Gaff and Masten have been fantastic this year. Expect a tight contest for most the game, but we should be able to take ascendency once we gain a foothold in the ruck. Overall, we should be able to at least match them for outside pace and ball winning ability.
* Barrass/Schofield/Gov Vs Dixon:
Dixon has been quite good against us recently. According to Port supporters, his poor form is due to the absence of Ryder, as he's had to ruck for large periods of time. With Ryder back, he'll be free up forward and ten times more dangerous. Our talls will need to keep a close eye on him.
* JK/Darling Vs Clurey/Jonas:
Jonas will most likely get first dips on JK. With JD in career best form he should be able to have the better of Clurey, and hopefully JK will kick a bag after a somewhat quiet 2 weeks. Hopefully there won't be any stray elbows on gameday from Tom.
* LeGod Vs Port:
The GOAT will be the dangerman for Port's entire team. Expect a BOG performance and 13 goal haul as Lecca will simply be too good for anyone the Power put on him.
Prediction:
West Coast by 24 points.
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