Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

[Kurve]

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The Murder of Rebecca Young - Ballarat

The Murder of Hannah McGuire - Ballarat * Lachie Young

17

Lachie Young

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

220.3

3star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.5

2star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

MG

210.0

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

MG

219.6

4star

charged



Allegedly

 

[Munich]

If they've disposed of the body in a place where it cant be retrieved or in a manner where it cant be identified then theyve shown complete disregard for not only the victim but the victims family etc. left behind and dont deserve any leniency.

People kill for all kinds of reasons and that'll never change, but once you kill and then try to hide the crime by interfering with the corpse to save your own arse, punishment should be never to be released.

I would think most murderers are hiding the body to not get caught - they're not thinking about the victim's family being able to find them or parole.

 

[Unit45]

I would think most murderers are hiding the body to not get caught - they're not thinking about the victim's family being able to find them or parole.

Thats right so they can do it again.

 

[Kurve]

If he was living in Mt Clear as a kid that area of forest is pretty close he could have mucked around in there with his mates which could give him a fair bit of local knowledge.

Might be worth finding the kids he used to hang out with exploring in the forest and find out if they might remember anything of interest, good hiding spots, hollowed out trees, any particular mines etc.

 

[31550]

I got in to that HS article posted above. It's astonishing, Victoria police do not have access to a tracker 'trail' dog and handler. Just wow.

If such a dog and handler were available (which they aren’t) they should be able to reach a missing person search scene in the first 24 “golden hours.”

In the case of Samantha Murphy, who went for a run at 7am, we now know she probably died that morning, before our hypothetical tracker dog could have reached Ballarat. But that doesn’t alter the fact that a speedier resolution would have been much better for family members and everyone else.

What if a trained hound is given Samantha’s scent later the day she vanishes or early the next, before the trail is hopelessly compromised with hundreds of others.
What if police let the hound do its work without distraction from a crowd of volunteer searchers? And what if the hound follows the missing woman’s scent from home in Ballarat East to the exact point where it stops.

The hound casts around and returns repeatedly to where the scent goes cold: in other words, the exact spot where Samantha met her fate.

We are talking about a tiny area, a few square metres in the middle of thousands of acres of scrub, bush and grassland. It’s the needle, not the haystack, the most likely crime scene — revealed inside the first 24 hours, perhaps less.
Expert detectives and crime scene analysts then comb that confined area for clues: fresh wheel tracks, a drop of blood, a thread of clothing, a scrape of coloured paint, a shattered car lens, even some dropped item that might hold prints or DNA.

https://archive.md/tp2UU#selection-1799.0-1807.245

I'm surprised it would take so long to mobilise a suitable tracker dog to Ballarat. But I'm not sure it would have made much difference, given that many public human resources were also mobilized in the search area very early on, and they would have all compromised the scent. This article suggests that maybe this was a problem, but what are police expected to do? Close off the whole forest completely until the search dogs can be deployed? It's logical and human nature in cases like these to try to find the missing person as quickly as possible in case they are alive and in need of assistance. This means allowing the general public to assist in the search from the outset. Finding a missing person is more important than uncovering forensic evidence which might help solve a possible crime.

 

[Unit45]

Everyone has been 22yrs old before and at least back then for me i had a close group of friends, some of the close group unwillingly for the accused may naturally not wanted to know about what happened. Even if some information was sent. In saying this there might be one person that holds vital information and hasnt come forward yet.

 

[Kurve]

I'm surprised it would take so long to mobilise a suitable tracker dog to Ballarat. But I'm not sure it would have made much difference, given that many public human resources were also mobilized in the search area very early on, and they would have all compromised the scent. This article suggests that maybe this was a problem, but what are police expected to do? Close off the whole forest completely until the search dogs can be deployed? It's logical and human nature in cases like these to try to find the missing person as quickly as possible in case they are alive and in need of assistance. This means allowing the general public to assist in the search from the outset. Finding a missing person is more important than uncovering forensic evidence which might help solve a possible crime.

Nobody's suggesting to close off the whole forest, simply to get the dogs out first and track her from the last point she was seen which was in her driveway.

Lessons have been learned from past searches. In Tasmania recently when someone went missing, professional teams actually asked the public to stay away. She was found.

Of course it becomes a different situation when the lost have been out in the scrub for so long it's expected they probably couldn't have survived it.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Thats right so they can do it again.

Or so they can pretend it didn’t happen and can go home and act normally and hope no one suspects them.

Those who want to do it again are another species.

 

[Kurve]

I still like the idea of the family dog looking first, with the right kind of dog. If my dogs couldn't find me, I'm not there. 100%.

 

[shorsky]

There's absolutely zero incentive for someone to give up the body in that case.

If they know they've disposed of them in a location they can't be retrieved, what's the point of them letting the police know?

At least they would be seen to be cooperating, perhaps even showing remorse - all these things go a long way when it comes to sentencing as well as parole applications, imo.

 

[Lady O]

At least they would be seen to be cooperating, perhaps even showing remorse - all these things go a long way when it comes to sentencing as well as parole applications, imo.

Weighing that with what evidence the Police have that might convict him. I think most would take a chance on staying stumm.

If he was remorseful and cooperative, they would already know where she was. He most likely will reveal where she is once he is sure he's got no hope of getting off.

 

[shorsky]

Weighing that with what evidence the Police have that might convict him. I think most would take a chance on staying stumm.

If he was remorseful and cooperative, they would already know where she was. He most likely will reveal where she is once he is sure he's got no hope of getting off.

You may have missed that I was responding to some theorising from Jatz.

I wasn’t talking about this situation, or about POS’s current actions.

 

[thumbs_up]

Nobody's suggesting to close off the whole forest, simply to get the dogs out first and track her from the last point she was seen which was in her driveway.

Lessons have been learned from past searches. In Tasmania recently when someone went missing, professional teams actually asked the public to stay away. She was found.

Of course it becomes a different situation when the lost have been out in the scrub for so long it's expected they probably couldn't have survived it.

I'd like them to have used tracking dogs too. I do also believe that HS article oversimplified things - estimates show that tracking dogs are between 53-97% accurate, so a lot of variability and much room for error depending on the dog(s) doing the tracking.

 

[31550]

I'd like them to have used tracking dogs too. I do also believe that HS article oversimplified things - estimates show that tracking dogs are between 53-97% accurate, so a lot of variability and much room for error depending on the dog(s) doing the tracking.

Regardless of tracker dogs, it seems Samantha was removed from the likely area she was intercepted and then driven elsewhere, possibly a considerable distance in a vehicle. I don't think the availability of dogs would have changed much in this case.

 

[Kurve]

Regardless of tracker dogs, it seems Samantha was removed from the likely area she was intercepted and then driven elsewhere, possibly a considerable distance in a vehicle. I don't think the availability of dogs would have changed much in this case.

It would have given them an area to focus on, while they had absolutely nothing at that stage.

Who knows. He might have killed her, moved her off the road and gone back that night or the next day to get her. In those circumstances, she might have been found.

The last two attacks, women were knocked out and left where they fell. They may have been very fortunate to have become conscious and could get out of there before their attacker came back.

 

[thumbs_up]

The other issue I can envisage with tracker dogs I'd that if they get it wrong,yet the police are confident the dogs, then it could lead them to focus the search on the wrong area entirely

 

[Kurve]

I'd like them to have used tracking dogs too. I do also believe that HS article oversimplified things - estimates show that tracking dogs are between 53-97% accurate, so a lot of variability and much room for error depending on the dog(s) doing the tracking.

A lot depends on the weather conditions, wind, rain etc., On a nice calm day with little wind, I'd say the chances are excellent with any dog who's had the training.

 

[Kurve]

The other issue I can envisage with tracker dogs I'd that if they get it wrong,yet the police are confident the dogs, then it could lead them to focus the search on the wrong area entirely

They only need a few specialists to search a small area, like they did after identifying the Mount Clear spot.

 

[Lady O]

You may have missed that I was responding to some theorising from Jatz.

I wasn’t talking about this situation, or about POS’s current actions.

No I didn't miss it. I was referring to this case and to the theorising about no body no parole/release. If a suspect believes he can get away with it, he won't have any incentive to give up the body, as that would be an admission of guilt.

 

[thumbs_up]

A lot depends on the weather conditions, wind, rain etc., On a nice calm day with little wind, I'd say the chances are excellent with any dog who's had the training.

Yes, but those stats were under lab settings, would likely be even less accurate (than between 53-97%) in the real world conditions that you mentioned above

 

[Lady O]

Yes, but those stats were under lab settings, would likely be even less accurate (than between 53-97%) in the real world conditions that you mentioned above

This was from a scientifc experiment:

"Results: There was no identifiable correlation between humidity, temperature, or wind speed and effectiveness, but the age of the dog has a small positive correlation. Using a standard effectiveness formula, basic descriptive statistics were generated, which showed that the dogs tested were 76.4% successful overall, with an effectiveness of 62.9%. Dogs covered a mean distance 2.4 times greater than their human handlers but travelled at roughly average human walking speed."

Quantifying Search Dog Effectiveness in a Terrestrial Search and Rescue Environment - PubMed

This work represents a first attempt to quantify and understand levels of performance in lowland search dogs, and these results need to be understood within that context. A repeatable experimental framework has been demonstrated and provides a foundation for further work in this area.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[thumbs_up]

This was from a scientifc experiment:

"Results: There was no identifiable correlation between humidity, temperature, or wind speed and effectiveness, but the age of the dog has a small positive correlation. Using a standard effectiveness formula, basic descriptive statistics were generated, which showed that the dogs tested were 76.4% successful overall, with an effectiveness of 62.9%. Dogs covered a mean distance 2.4 times greater than their human handlers but travelled at roughly average human walking speed."

Quantifying Search Dog Effectiveness in a Terrestrial Search and Rescue Environment - PubMed

This work represents a first attempt to quantify and understand levels of performance in lowland search dogs, and these results need to be understood within that context. A repeatable experimental framework has been demonstrated and provides a foundation for further work in this area.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

I wonder if anyone has conducted a meta analysis on all the studies

 

[Kurve]

I don't know if Sissy's and (possibly) XBow's friends neighbour were attacked by the same man but I don't recall Sissy saying anything about noticing a vehicle.

It might be the same offender, if so it's possible PO walked in to the bush to lie in wait, leaving his vehicle somewhere else. When he's seen a vulnerable woman, leapt out and attacked, then left the scene. He may have gone back to move her on realising an alarm's gone up, people are looking for her and he might have killed her, which could explain the 5.00pm ping in Buninyong.

 

[thumbs_up]

I don't know if Sissy's and (possibly) XBox's friends neighbour were attacked by the same man but I don't recall Sissy saying anything about noticing a vehicle.

It might be the same offender, if so it's possible PO walked in to the bush to lie in wait, leaving his vehicle somewhere else. When he's seen a vulnerable woman, leapt out and attacked, then left the scene. He may have gone back to move her on realising an alarm's gone up, people are looking for her and he might have killed her, which could explain the 5.00pm ping in Buninyong.

We're talking serious levels of sadism if that's occured

 

[Kurve]

This was from a scientifc experiment:

"Results: There was no identifiable correlation between humidity, temperature, or wind speed and effectiveness, but the age of the dog has a small positive correlation. Using a standard effectiveness formula, basic descriptive statistics were generated, which showed that the dogs tested were 76.4% successful overall, with an effectiveness of 62.9%. Dogs covered a mean distance 2.4 times greater than their human handlers but travelled at roughly average human walking speed."

Quantifying Search Dog Effectiveness in a Terrestrial Search and Rescue Environment - PubMed

This work represents a first attempt to quantify and understand levels of performance in lowland search dogs, and these results need to be understood within that context. A repeatable experimental framework has been demonstrated and provides a foundation for further work in this area.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

A trailing dog is different to a tracking dog.

Trackers follow the footsteps with nose to the ground constantly. Trailers can, if they lose the footsteps for example when the target has moved from walking on dirt to bitumen after rain, or the body's been lifted up and moved, pick their scent up in the air and they're allowed to follow it, if wind then factors in.

 

[Kurve]

We're talking serious levels of sadism if that's occured

And/or serious levels of cover up.