Sandown Classic True Odds

[the_fresh]

Just a little update on what I was saying.
Our best WFA horse El Segundo has a avg of 0.71 in 14 WFA starts. The worst result was being beaten by 6.8 lengths at Flemington and we all know he doesn't go too well there.

 

[the_fresh]

I dont understand that comment fresh? Can you explain please?

Onwers & breeders are looking for a quick hit and our horses are bred for 2 year old racing.
In Australia we have the best short dist horses in the world, but as the dist get long our horses get weaker, there for races like the Cup, Cox Plate are now weaker than what they were 5 years ago, which was weaker than what they were 10 years ago and so on.

Breeders are breeding for races like the slipper which is a shame where 25 years ago horses were bred for WFA racing and staying events.

Can you name 5 middle dist/stayers (1800m & over) that you would take overseas? I think I can name 2, El Segundo (I'll take to HK for the Vase) & maybe Efficient for the right race, maybe a group 3/listed race.

We breed for speed here, early pocket fillers and for some reason out staying races are forgotten about by breeders.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Onwers & breeders are looking for a quick hit and our horses are bred for 2 year old racing.
In Australia we have the best short dist horses in the world, but as the dist get long our horses get weaker, there for races like the Cup, Cox Plate are now weaker than what they were 5 years ago, which was weaker than what they were 10 years ago and so on.

Breeders are breeding for races like the slipper which is a shame where 25 years ago horses were bred for WFA racing and staying events.

Can you name 5 middle dist/stayers (1800m & over) that you would take overseas? I think I can name 2, El Segundo (I'll take to HK for the Vase) & maybe Efficient for the right race, maybe a group 3/listed race.

We breed for speed here, early pocket fillers and for some reason out staying races are forgotten about by breeders.

Yeah fair enough mate. I see your point, and it is disappointing. I rarely bet on 2 year old racing and really can't be stuffed watching it half the time because they are up and down like yo yo's.

It's sad that the spring carnival was missing the NSW/QLD horses with some of the bigger trainers in the land not having many, if any runners.

I would have loved to have seen horses like Mentality (one of my favourite horses) down here. Even the fact the Pompeii Ruler was missing left a hole. They should never taken that to Dubai.

But I do agree with you that our racing stocks over 1800m start to get very thin here in Australia when looking for quality thoroughbreds.

 

[stressless]

Fair enough then PT.
If you take Zipping out of the discussion,I need a WFA horse to have won at Gp1 WFA.
I cant think of 1 other horse who I can confidently say is a WFA horse that is a GP 1 maiden.

As for Zipping,the true staying test anywhere is 2400m+
He has also failed in Gp 1 handicaps 3 times,2 X MC & 1 x CC.
Dont get sucked in to the excuses,he ran up to win in both 2006 & 2007.
As a Danehill,which is not his fault,he doesnt stay 2 miles.

Gp 2 horse at best,too many Gp 1 failures to be anything else.

seth

You know seth one day starz will do his homework on the stock of the great Danehill and make a complete fool of you. You need to make clear its with Austalian mares he had trouble with which are not the same as the died in the wool staying mares in europe in which he left great stayers.

 

[haywood jablome]

You guys talkin shit bout me yo? My offspring can run 2 miles fo sho....

Orly.

 

[Lockyer24]

Its a shame starzys mate won the day everyone else backed it and ruined his odds. Yesterdays result proves he should have run in the Caulfield Cup IMO.

 

[slushpup]

Caufield Cup would be the go for him I think. What sort of weight do you think he'd get for next year?

 

[Ron]

Maybe Better is not a great stayer, he gets about 3000m and starts to go up and down on the same spot. Efficient on the other hand does stay 2 miles, he's about 5 lengths off him over the trip but Efficient isn't that great a stayer.

You managed to find out all this from the one time they have each run that distance?

 

[the_fresh]

You managed to find out all this from the one time they have each run that distance?

Well Efficient's 2 runs above 2400m have been wins and he showed both times a turn of foot.
Maybe Better if you watch the 06 cup will see him battle won in the last 200m with not much making ground on him apart from Zipping who his owner, trainer & jockey all said doesn't get 3200, but had a great easy no work run in the 06 cup.

 

[sethlad]

You know seth one day starz will do his homework on the stock of the great Danehill and make a complete fool of you. You need to make clear its with Austalian mares he had trouble with which are not the same as the died in the wool staying mares in europe in which he left great stayers.

How about you help him out then & give me this list of "great stayers"

Apart from Westerner who can stay but is a typical slow European stayer,let me know of these fantastic 2 milers by Danehill throughout Europe.
Distinction is hardly a great example,he's had an Arc winner & Derby winners but his list of genuine 2 milers is sadly barren.

So,lets hear them then.

seth

 

[starz]

"Not a wfa horse".

"Not a stayer".

Both of these have been dispelled.

He may not be the best wfa horse in the land, nor the best stayer, but there aren't many better.

Just because a horse isn't the best, or in the best two or three, in a category doesn't make him a B-grader.

Ok Seth, that's your definition of what a wfa horse. Mine would be a horse that's competitive in wfa, and Zipping has a couple of places in Group 1s, and several other very good runs, so he fits that category for me.

As to not being a two miler, only two Australian horses have beaten him in two runnings of the Melbourne Cup, Australia's premier 2 mile handicap. If he's not a two miler, then only Maybe Better and Efficient (of the Australian horses) he drew in the car park each time.

You know seth one day starz will do his homework on the stock of the great Danehill and make a complete fool of you. You need to make clear its with Austalian mares he had trouble with which are not the same as the died in the wool staying mares in europe in which he left great stayers.

Absolutely, it's good to hear some informed opinions.
Danehills have won the big staying races all over the world.
You also got to look at the dam side, non-issue for some..but that's half of it.
Zippings dam side also has outstanding staying results across Europe and the world.

 

[starz]

Its a shame starzys mate won the day everyone else backed it and ruined his odds. Yesterdays result proves he should have run in the Caulfield Cup IMO.

I was delighted to get $2.50, that was the opening quote and some put up 2.70 which was also hit hard.

 

[sethlad]

Absolutely, it's good to hear some informed opinions.
Danehills have won the big staying races all over the world.
You also got to look at the dam side, non-issue for some..but that's half of it.
Zippings dam side also has outstanding staying results across Europe and the world.

Never said Danehill's dont stay......said "they dont get two miles"
Can you please not change the quotes here.
Lets have a list of the Danehill's that "have won the big staying races all over the world"
One of you/Stressless answering will be fine......lol

seth

 

[starz]

Plenty of Danehills have won at 2000+ surely you know that.
As has his dam side, isn't that the issue here, pedigree?

Feel free to post evidence if you disagree... thought not.

 

[starz]

Well Efficient's 2 runs above 2400m have been wins and he showed both times a turn of foot.
Maybe Better if you watch the 06 cup will see him battle won in the last 200m with not much making ground on him apart from Zipping who his owner, trainer & jockey all said doesn't get 3200, but had a great easy no work run in the 06 cup.

Zipping did a mountain of work, at least 10 lengths more than any other runner. Had to from barrier 22.

Started his run at the 800, 3 wide back there with Master OReilly who put up the white flag.

 

[sethlad]

What has 2000m got to do with 3200m?
The discussion is Danehills at 3200m

Im well over Zipping,you're the only person in the world who thinks he's a 2 miler,including his jockey & owner/trainer.
Won a C grade race because he was the only B grader in it
It was a glorified jumpers flat.

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Zipping isn't competitive at WFA. in fact in 5 WFA runs before yesterday he was on avg. 3.04 lengths behind the winner, yesterday win take that to 2.25 lengths behind even. in 6 starts & 4.25 lengths in group 1 WFA races, anything over 1 length isn't competitive IMO.

I don't think average margin of defeat is a great indication of competitiveness. Of course El Seg will have a lesser average margin of defeat because he's always placed in races of suitable distance (i.e. up to 2000m).

Stayers like Zipping often commence their preps in races over unsuitable distances with a view to conditioning them for the race they are set for. Zipping commences his prep over 1200m and works up. Usually he's very competitive first up, then not again until he hits his right distance.

Out of interest, what was Makybe Diva's average margin of defeat? And no, I'm not suggesting he's close to her.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's a world beater over two miles, only that he's a very good horse over that trip and that there are few better in this country at the moment.

 

[starz]

All of the big group 1's Zipping raced in he drew the widest barrier winners didn't.
The times he can reel off at WFA are unrivalled.
He's already beaten the A graders this Spring in unsuitable circumstances,

El Segundo - 1-1 but 1-0 to Zipping on merit
Miss Finland - sent her to the paddock
Haradasun - Flew passed him
Maldivian - Easy win
Marasco - very easy win
Master O - Easy win
Efficient - Wins but Efficients Melb Cup.

 

[Ron]

How does Zipping get 1-0 on merit?

 

[the_fresh]

All of the big group 1's Zipping raced in he drew the widest barrier winners didn't.
The times he can reel off at WFA are unrivalled.
He's already beaten the A graders this Spring in unsuitable circumstances,

El Segundo - 1-1 but 1-0 to Zipping on merit
Miss Finland - sent her to the paddock
Haradasun - Flew passed him
Maldivian - Easy win
Marasco - very easy win
Master O - Easy win
Efficient - Wins but Efficients Melb Cup.

Ok Starz you are really starting to show us how dumb you are.
El Segundo beat him and the rest of the Cox Plate on merit, Zipping lacked the pace to get into the race & when it was over Zipping got going.
Miss Finland's prep was off from the start, training a miler to stay was never going to happen and she will be set for races shes suited to next prep.
Haradsun beat him home in the Cox Plate, then broke down at Flemington, so as for flying past him can you get me a replay of that race.

Zipping is a handicaper suited to a 2800m race. He's no way in hell a WFA horse.
He gets beaten on avg 3.04 lengths everytime he steps up to WFA. Good WFA horses have a avg of zero to 1 length, champions are above zero.
Thats how far off a good horse he is.

He's yet to win a group 1 race, he was the only non-group 1 winner in the Cox Plate & wouldn't have got a run if the Sydney horses were here.
He doesn't win out of turn, yes he does pull off some great times over the last 600m, but he does no work.

One day you'll wake up and see it Starz, until then you're going to lose a lot of money.

 

[the_fresh]

Out of interest, what was Makybe Diva's average margin of defeat? And no, I'm not suggesting he's close to her.

Makybe Diva: -0.9
Might & Power: 0.59

I rate Might & Power the best horse I've seen, so I did him too.

 

[Angus1]

All of the big group 1's Zipping raced in he drew the widest barrier winners didn't.
The times he can reel off at WFA are unrivalled.
He's already beaten the A graders this Spring in unsuitable circumstances,

El Segundo - 1-1 but 1-0 to Zipping on merit
Miss Finland - sent her to the paddock
Haradasun - Flew passed him
Maldivian - Easy win
Marasco - very easy win
Master O - Easy win
Efficient - Wins but Efficients Melb Cup.

You are a disgrace Starz.
I generally avoid your threads like the plague but I just can't let this one slip.

Absolutely outrageous .
You are one of those punters that love reading the final sectional times.
Yes Zipping does fly home in most of his races. Big Deal. Does that help him win any?

The difference between all the horses (bar Efficient ) you mention and Zipping is that they all had to work to take up a good position to give them a winning chance.
Zipping just can't do it in a group 1 race. He is simply not good enough.
He sits back and waits for the final sprint at the end.

Even L. Williams said that after sitting back and doing nothing that he was entitled to have a strong final 600.

Obviously when a horse has to work early or mid race they wont have as strong a sprint at the end.

You are delusional.

 

[Chattanooga]

I don't think Zipping is a stayer at all.

Some have criticised his two 'major' wins (MV Cup & Sandown Classic) as being unworthy of praise as they were against average opposition, but in my opinion they were incredibly good efforts as I don't think he should be running over further than 2000m.

His Cup efforts have been similarly superb for the same reason. It is such a shame that some lambast him for his inability to win that particular race, having started at a relatively short quote both times. He should never have been running in it! Would you criticise El Segundo if he ran consecutive fourth's in the Oakleigh Plate?

I think he is a class animal, who has never had his preparation geared around the right races. Early on his winning percentage was phenomenal, and while it was in undoubtedly poorer class, I think his strike rate was so high as it was the only time in his career he was racing in his right distance range.

Perhaps now that Lloyd has quenched his thirst for another Cup, he might have a re-think about what is best for this horse. I think Zipping's record has been diminished due to his obsession.

I hope it is not too late, and that he is not past his prime.

Please Johnny Sadler. Aim him for the Futurity, St George, Aust Cup in the Autumn, and we might finally get to see the true ability of Zipping.

 

[starz]

How does Zipping get 1-0 on merit?

El Segundo only clashed with Zipping once when running side by side, El Segundo was on the outside in the faster part of the slow zone, was 1 length clear but Zipping made up a length and beat him going away.
The Cox Plate was decided at the start.

I don't think average margin of defeat is a great indication of competitiveness. Of course El Seg will have a lesser average margin of defeat because he's always placed in races of suitable distance (i.e. up to 2000m).

Out of interest, what was Makybe Diva's average margin of defeat? And no, I'm not suggesting he's close to her.

It's just one of those irrelevant and flawed stats where one bad result for whatever reason can override many wins by half length or 1 length.

Don't let people sway you into categorizing all WFA or Group 1 races as the same importance either, that's fools talk.
Plus there are hundreds of things to consider.

 

[starz]

Haradasun wasn't injured in the MacKinnon either, just well beaten.
Of course they're going to ramp injury he's worth $40mil.