Score Expectations - Premiums/Keepers

[Simon_Nesbit]

Very simple - no $$$, here's my team, who's better stuff. Just under/over expectations. These aren't my expectations so much as what my spreadsheet spits out. This is the top-50 most expensive players (cutting out at 400k).

There's certainly some value in the mid-high 300s, but I don't feel like writing another 200 names.

110 - Ablett, Swann

105 - Montagna, Chapman

100 - Bartel, Hayes, Cox, Gibbs, Corey, Reiwoldt, Dal Santo, Boyd, Goddard, Pendlebury, J.Selwood

95 - Didak, M.Murphy, Mitchell, Sewell, Stanton, Vince, S.Johnson, N.Davis, Goodes, B.Johnson, S.Thompson, O'Keefe, Edwards

90 - Anthony, Tuck, Deledio, Priddis, Cross, Power, Sandilands, Prismal, Syliva, Cornes, Brown, Clark, Judd, Bolton, Winderlich, Akermanis, Cassissi, Lewis, Lockyer, Bruce, Hargrave, Pavlich, Gram

<90 - The rest.

Which of those players will go up/down a category?

Who's not on the list who you think will score 90+?

 

[Lazarus]

Where do you think Giansiracusa sits? just under 90?

 

[Extortion Threat]

Where did you get these numbers from since just about every player is in a category 5-10 points below their average from last year. Bartel averaged 109 last year (category 100), Swan and Ablett 119 (category 110), Montagna 116, Chapman 113, etc.

Based on that all the players you have listed will jump a category.

Looking a little closer I reckon B. Johnson, Corey, Cox & Edwards will drop a category mainly due to age/injuries.

Some players not on the list who could average 90+ are: Cooney, Boak, Ball, Enright, Duffield, Gia & Hodge

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

(how did I work it out)

Took their current price, averaged accross league, took last year average, averaged accross league. Divided 1 by 2, then divided that figure into their current price for a (very) rough "break-even".

Dropped 10 pts to allow for their "premiumness" as they won't be appreciating in value much, if at all.

 

[Knows_footy]

95 - Didak, M.Murphy, Mitchell, Sewell, Stanton, Vince, S.Johnson, N.Davis, Goodes, B.Johnson, S.Thompson, O'Keefe, Edwards

Didn't realise this guy was still going around.

 

[andrew81186]

joel selwood 110

jobe watson 100

matthew kruezer 90

 

[Lazarus]

Didn't realise this guy was still going around

I assume he means Leon.

matthew kruezer 90

I don't think he'll average that much.

 

[samwise]

120 - Ablett, Swan

110-115 - Montagna, Chapman, Bartel, Pendlebury, J.Selwood, Reiwoldt

105-110 - Hayes, Cox, Gibbs, Corey, Dal Santo, Boyd, Goddard, M.Murphy, Mitchell, Sewell, Stanton, S.Johnson, O'Keefe

100-105 - Didak, Vince, L.Davis, Goodes, Anthony, Winderlich

95-100 - Tuck, Deledio, Priddis, Cross, Power, Sandilands, Prismal, Cornes, Brown, Clark, Judd, Bolton, Cassissi, Lewis, Lockyer, Bruce, Pavlich, Gram

95 => - B.Johnson, Syliva, Akermanis, Hargrave, S.Thompson, Edwards


Thats what I think of those players

 

[yogibbear]

Adam Selwood, Luke Hodge, Corey Enright, Jobe Watson, Luke Ball should all probably step up and at least break into those bottom tiers.

 

[Axel.]

Very simple - no $$$, here's my team, who's better stuff. Just under/over expectations. These aren't my expectations so much as what my spreadsheet spits out. This is the top-50 most expensive players (cutting out at 400k).

There's certainly some value in the mid-high 300s, but I don't feel like writing another 200 names.

110 - Ablett, Swann

105 - Montagna, Chapman

100 - Bartel, Hayes, Cox, Gibbs, Corey, Reiwoldt, Dal Santo, Boyd, Goddard, Pendlebury, J.Selwood

95 - Didak, M.Murphy, Mitchell, Sewell, Stanton, Vince, S.Johnson, N.Davis, Goodes, B.Johnson, S.Thompson, O'Keefe, Edwards

90 - Anthony, Tuck, Deledio, Priddis, Cross, Power, Sandilands, Prismal, Syliva, Cornes, Brown, Clark, Judd, Bolton, Winderlich, Akermanis, Cassissi, Lewis, Lockyer, Bruce, Hargrave, Pavlich, Gram

<90 - The rest.

Which of those players will go up/down a category?

Who's not on the list who you think will score 90+?

I'd have Clark and Mitchell in the 100's category.

 

[Papa Juggs]

Needs to be broken down into position.

Forwards, back and rucks have limited keeps so you don't really need to do so much research to pick between 4 or 5 premiums.

It's only the mids I'm interested in and score expectation is weighing heavy on my mind.

Dane Swan comes with high expectations. I just love his scores. Could be on 110 points at 3qtr time as your lockin captain. That's never a bad feeling.

Ablett you can expect more 150+ games and handles the pressure of scoring in harder games. A little injury prone but I'm hoping he's over it now.

Bartel at $480k is pushing the limits. He's good but he's not that good.

Montagna at $500k is too much for me. Might get the points but he was under the radar last year and is sure to cop a tag this time around.

There's just so much to pick in the high price bracket this year. It's really a lottery. 100 average over 22 games is what you are looking for. Last year I thought I would get it with Dan Cross but the pussy went and got hurt.

For a non-captain premium 22 round keeper I would be hoping for 100 points a game and expecting to pay around $430k.

Either of Swan or Ablett needs to be your lockin captain IMHO.

Picking outside of them will lose you points.

Of course there's no way of really knowing. Montagna could come out and score 150 points in the first few weeks while Swan and Ablett score 90s. But I doubt it

 

[yogibbear]

Needs to be broken down into position.

Forwards, back and rucks have limited keeps so you don't really need to do so much research to pick between 4 or 5 premiums.

It's only the mids I'm interested in and score expectation is weighing heavy on my mind.

Dane Swan comes with high expectations. I just love his scores. Could be on 110 points at 3qtr time as your lockin captain. That's never a bad feeling.

Ablett you can expect more 150+ games and handles the pressure of scoring in harder games. A little injury prone but I'm hoping he's over it now.

Bartel at $480k is pushing the limits. He's good but he's not that good.

Montagna at $500k is too much for me. Might get the points but he was under the radar last year and is sure to cop a tag this time around.

There's just so much to pick in the high price bracket this year. It's really a lottery. 100 average over 22 games is what you are looking for. Last year I thought I would get it with Dan Cross but the pussy went and got hurt.

For a non-captain premium 22 round keeper I would be hoping for 100 points a game and expecting to pay around $430k.

Either of Swan or Ablett needs to be your lockin captain IMHO.

Picking outside of them will lose you points.

Of course there's no way of really knowing. Montagna could come out and score 150 points in the first few weeks while Swan and Ablett score 90s. But I doubt it

Great advice....

But....

 

[Papa Juggs]

Montagna scored 100 but was below average. I guess he had time of the field with his knock to the shoulder.

Ablett scored up to expectations or a little bit over.

Bartel with the 114 a couple of points above average. Looks like he will continue to be a solid 110 point player.

Stanton had a huge game and might be a small amount of value.

Goddard scoring only 88 with his pricetag was not enough. Hopefully he fails to make his breakevens and I can pick him up cheap later on

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Quick Update - every player I selected (except Clark ) has performed above my 'minimum' expectation so far.

The three players I traded out at the last minute (Carazzo, Stanton, Brennan), all had fantastic games. H.Shaw, Mitchell, Warren the replacements.

Given that, I'm expecting Pavlich (o'keefe) and McIntosh (clark) to rip it up.

 

[smiths]

Goddard scoring only 88 with his pricetag was not enough. Hopefully he fails to make his breakevens and I can pick him up cheap later on

It was against Sydney.... from here on in I will be expecting 110's from him