Semi-deep dive into numbers since 2016

[MrChristo]

(Double checks spelling, and off we go...)

Honestly, and with complete sincerity here, it's genuinely hard to believe some of this, and although it doesn't match up with what my eyes are telling me, I'm far more inclined to be pro-Club, pro-Bevo now than I was nearly 2 hours ago.

I say, "Semi-deep dive", because I've only spent a relatively short time on this and so focussed on the more 'obvious', but I concentrated on some of our stats, some opp stats and the differentials between them.

So, 2016 [Hope I can get this across in a decent format]...might just be best to list some things, show where we sit (now and previously) and highlight any major changes... [spoiler alert, there just aren't that many changes!!]

Things I looked at;
Our Clangers (we have been [surprisingly!] consistent in our cleanness under Bevo);
Our Contested Possessions (our 1-wood);
Opposition I50's [defensive structure];
Opposition Frees For [discipline];
Opposition Clearances;
Opposition Metres Gained;
Opposition CP;

Then yearly differentials in;
CP,
UP,
Clearances, (Centre + Stoppage clearances);
I50's,
Marks (*), Handballs and disposals. (Largely because we were described as a "possession team" on the weekend).
(*) The one differential I'll keep track of here...

[Again, I think a summary will be easier than a table of numbers, but feel free to PM or ask on here for clarification/actual numbers].

2016. No great surprises. In the best 4 in the League for all of those. Numbers off the charts. It's no wonder at all we won the GF. A crazy good year statistically speaking.
Opposition simply couldn't get their hands on the ball as we were easily the #1 team at limiting Opp clearances (allowed them just 31.3/game), CP's, metres gained, which (obviously) translated into allowing <45 I50's per game. Could hardly lose.
(* Ranked #15 in Marks differential. [I think it's worth mentioning for what happens later]. ie. Opposition couldn't really move forward so they chipped it around, where-as we kept possession for long periods by handball).

By 2018, we'd dropped off a cliff. From #1 in CP (+16.5) to #16 (-6.5)!! Our clearance numbers are still good, but around the ground we are getting smashed at ground level. As a result, our I50 differential goes from #2 (+10) in 2016, to #12 (-1.9)!
Interestingly, we still don't mark the ball. Still #12 in mark differential (-4.2).

2021. (My first surprise). I recall it as a frustrating year. It really seemed to me like we'd changed. I didn't have the same confidence in our game style.
We wasted the end of the year. We blew a top 4. We very nearly got over-run by Brisbane off a big lead (which just wasn't us at all!), and yet...
Absolutely 2016-like numbers! Smashed it.
Again, top 5 in almost everything (just 9th in CP, but 3rd in CP differential).
(16th in mark differential @ - 12.8!)
Amazing year. Blown away by 45 minutes.

Ok, so that surprised me, but I concede that it won't have surprised too many others here. I then present you with...

2022. This is mad. It's our best year ever under Bevo for Clearance numbers! #1 in clearance differential (+7.9) [+6.5 in 2016].
#1 in both Centre and Stoppage clearance differentials, both the nest we've seen under Bevo. Crazy.
#3 in I50 differentials, our 3rd best behind 2016 and 2021.
6th was the lowest we were ranked for any of those things I mentioned (* Obviously, except for Marks diff, #17th @ -13/game)

#2 for clangers and an easy #1 for opp Free Kicks which speaks to me about discipline (and we haven't been 'worse' than 5th in either of these categories since before 2016).

Frankly, another amazing year statistically. It obviously deserves a deeper dive to make sense of (*), but on the surface it was another really top level year.
(* We were 5th for points, but 11th for points against... defensive issues?) [We were 10-1 when we scored 84+]
Either way, maybe we were a bit 'unlucky' to get Freo? Scoring 25 pints in 3 quarters is awful, but they did do a number on us 3 weeks earlier...

Anyway, personal feelings aside, statistically, a crazy good year. The board, the coaching staff et al had to be impressed.

2023 Some slight decline, but definitely no cliff! (Again, doesn't really match the eye test, and in my mind now gives a lot more weight to the player decline rather than the coach...)
Notable (but definitely not significant!) drop-offs; There just aren't any!! (I'm as surprised as anyone as I'm writing this!)
#7 in Opp Free Kicks, which is our worst so far under Bevo. Losing discipline? Players getting a bit slower? But honestly, other than that, still ranked in the top 8 for all of the things I've mentioned.

#3 for CP dif, #2 for clearances (#2 for both centre and stoppage), #4 for I50 dif (#2 for Opp I50's)...

...a slight drop-off of actual touches (ranked 8th is our worst under Bevo), but it looks like the 'problem' again was defence. Ranked 14th for points against.
A quick look at the results suggests a pretty inconsistent year, but again, by the numbers, by [some] metrics, we're actually looking ok!!

2024. Things have definitely changed! Why? I don't know. [add as much speculation as you see fit!]...

...but a definite change of game plan.

#13 for CP. 130 p/game is the fewest we've seen under Bevo.

(Surprisingly!) 5th for Opp I50's (looks worse than that), BUT, we're not going forward ourselves (#9 for I50 differential (+1.0), worst since 2018)...
...And (I know you've been waiting for it!) now #5 for mark differential!!
We've only been out of the 'bottom' 4 in the Bevo era, and only once previously in the positive (+3.5 in 2019). We are now 5th @ +11.3!!

So, I take back my comment on a thread a few days ago, it seems we are now a kick and catch team!
As a result (maybe), we're just 12th for I50's...but still hanging in there at #9 in I50 differential @ +1.0.
[Also, #1 in UP, which isn't hugely surprising, but +28.1 per game!!!]

Our ball movement has stalled.

Forward line issue? Confidence issue? (Worth noting we're still only 6th for Clangers which surprises me somewhat!)
(Also interestingly, despite the huge increase in marks, we're still #2 and 3 in handballs and possession differential!)

It's genuinely not that bad. Still #5 for metres allowed, #5 for I50's allowed, and only CP worse that #9...

Middle of the road now for sure, but I now think that's personnel. The numbers up to this year have been nothing short of amazing.

Funnily enough, I'm more interested in how the year pans out now. Definitely not expecting 'success', but scraping into the 8 will be a win for me.
(And yes, controversially in these parts, I think the next 10 weeks or so will decide Bevo's fate, not what has come previously... )

 

[Mutt]

Fascinating research MrChristo.

The wins v losses don't match the supposedly stellar stats, though. We have never won enough games in any home and away season to finish in the top 4. Lately, we have lost 13 of our last 19 games. The stats provide some insight, but they only tell some of the story. We have not been a dominant team over the past ten years. We have had some good (amazing) moments, but we have not sustained excellence.

 

[dogwatch]

(Double checks spelling, and off we go...)

Honestly, and with complete sincerity here, it's genuinely hard to believe some of this, and although it doesn't match up with what my eyes are telling me, I'm far more inclined to be pro-Club, pro-Bevo now than I was nearly 2 hours ago.

I say, "Semi-deep dive", because I've only spent a relatively short time on this and so focussed on the more 'obvious', but I concentrated on some of our stats, some opp stats and the differentials between them.

So, 2016 [Hope I can get this across in a decent format]...might just be best to list some things, show where we sit (now and previously) and highlight any major changes... [spoiler alert, there just aren't that many changes!!]

Things I looked at;
Our Clangers (we have been [surprisingly!] consistent in our cleanness under Bevo);
Our Contested Possessions (our 1-wood);
Opposition I50's [defensive structure];
Opposition Frees For [discipline];
Opposition Clearances;
Opposition Metres Gained;
Opposition CP;

Then yearly differentials in;
CP,
UP,
Clearances, (Centre + Stoppage clearances);
I50's,
Marks (*), Handballs and disposals. (Largely because we were described as a "possession team" on the weekend).
(*) The one differential I'll keep track of here...

[Again, I think a summary will be easier than a table of numbers, but feel free to PM or ask on here for clarification/actual numbers].

2016. No great surprises. In the best 4 in the League for all of those. Numbers off the charts. It's no wonder at all we won the GF. A crazy good year statistically speaking.
Opposition simply couldn't get their hands on the ball as we were easily the #1 team at limiting Opp clearances (allowed them just 31.3/game), CP's, metres gained, which (obviously) translated into allowing <45 I50's per game. Could hardly lose.
(* Ranked #15 in Marks differential. [I think it's worth mentioning for what happens later]. ie. Opposition couldn't really move forward so they chipped it around, where-as we kept possession for long periods by handball).

By 2018, we'd dropped off a cliff. From #1 in CP (+16.5) to #16 (-6.5)!! Our clearance numbers are still good, but around the ground we are getting smashed at ground level. As a result, our I50 differential goes from #2 (+10) in 2016, to #12 (-1.9)!
Interestingly, we still don't mark the ball. Still #12 in mark differential (-4.2).

2021. (My first surprise). I recall it as a frustrating year. It really seemed to me like we'd changed. I didn't have the same confidence in our game style.
We wasted the end of the year. We blew a top 4. We very nearly got over-run by Brisbane off a big lead (which just wasn't us at all!), and yet...
Absolutely 2016-like numbers! Smashed it.
Again, top 5 in almost everything (just 9th in CP, but 3rd in CP differential).
(16th in mark differential @ - 12.8!)
Amazing year. Blown away by 45 minutes.

Ok, so that surprised me, but I concede that it won't have surprised too many others here. I then present you with...

2022. This is mad. It's our best year ever under Bevo for Clearance numbers! #1 in clearance differential (+7.9) [+6.5 in 2016].
#1 in both Centre and Stoppage clearance differentials, both the nest we've seen under Bevo. Crazy.
#3 in I50 differentials, our 3rd best behind 2016 and 2021.
6th was the lowest we were ranked for any of those things I mentioned (* Obviously, except for Marks diff, #17th @ -13/game)

#2 for clangers and an easy #1 for opp Free Kicks which speaks to me about discipline (and we haven't been 'worse' than 5th in either of these categories since before 2016).

Frankly, another amazing year statistically. It obviously deserves a deeper dive to make sense of (*), but on the surface it was another really top level year.
(* We were 5th for points, but 11th for points against... defensive issues?) [We were 10-1 when we scored 84+]
Either way, maybe we were a bit 'unlucky' to get Freo? Scoring 25 pints in 3 quarters is awful, but they did do a number on us 3 weeks earlier...

Anyway, personal feelings aside, statistically, a crazy good year. The board, the coaching staff et al had to be impressed.

2023 Some slight decline, but definitely no cliff! (Again, doesn't really match the eye test, and in my mind now gives a lot more weight to the player decline rather than the coach...)
Notable (but definitely not significant!) drop-offs; There just aren't any!! (I'm as surprised as anyone as I'm writing this!)
#7 in Opp Free Kicks, which is our worst so far under Bevo. Losing discipline? Players getting a bit slower? But honestly, other than that, still ranked in the top 8 for all of the things I've mentioned.

#3 for CP dif, #2 for clearances (#2 for both centre and stoppage), #4 for I50 dif (#2 for Opp I50's)...

...a slight drop-off of actual touches (ranked 8th is our worst under Bevo), but it looks like the 'problem' again was defence. Ranked 14th for points against.
A quick look at the results suggests a pretty inconsistent year, but again, by the numbers, by [some] metrics, we're actually looking ok!!

2024. Things have definitely changed! Why? I don't know. [add as much speculation as you see fit!]...

...but a definite change of game plan.

#13 for CP. 130 p/game is the fewest we've seen under Bevo.

(Surprisingly!) 5th for Opp I50's (looks worse than that), BUT, we're not going forward ourselves (#9 for I50 differential (+1.0), worst since 2018)...
...And (I know you've been waiting for it!) now #5 for mark differential!!
We've only been out of the 'bottom' 4 in the Bevo era, and only once previously in the positive (+3.5 in 2019). We are now 5th @ +11.3!!

So, I take back my comment on a thread a few days ago, it seems we are now a kick and catch team!
As a result (maybe), we're just 12th for I50's...but still hanging in there at #9 in I50 differential @ +1.0.
[Also, #1 in UP, which isn't hugely surprising, but +28.1 per game!!!]

Our ball movement has stalled.

Forward line issue? Confidence issue? (Worth noting we're still only 6th for Clangers which surprises me somewhat!)
(Also interestingly, despite the huge increase in marks, we're still #2 and 3 in handballs and possession differential!)

It's genuinely not that bad. Still #5 for metres allowed, #5 for I50's allowed, and only CP worse that #9...

Middle of the road now for sure, but I now think that's personnel. The numbers up to this year have been nothing short of amazing.

Funnily enough, I'm more interested in how the year pans out now. Definitely not expecting 'success', but scraping into the 8 will be a win for me.
(And yes, controversially in these parts, I think the next 10 weeks or so will decide Bevo's fate, not what has come previously... )

Interesting research MrC. It raises more questions than it answers.

I was just about to post some stuff but it was mostly along the lines of what Mutt just posted. The 6 wins from our last 19 games is disturbing.

 

[Doggies_13]

The contested possession is pretty easy to explain.

We’ve gone from a an extremely deep midfield to last year having Bont and Libba have basically career best seasons where they dominated. At the end of 2023 the following players finished in the top 50 for contested possessions.

Bont, Libba (both top 8), treloar, macare, English. They averaged 56 between them per game. We averaged 140. So 5 players averaged 40% of our contested possessions per game. This year we have Bont (still top 10), treloar and Libba in the top 50 that’s it. So our mid field is not as deep and the players that carried us last season are not reaching the same levels other than Bont.

As for the uncontested possession and marking being up, I think that is a combination of failing to win the contest as much so we are starting with the ball more in the back half and having to move the ball. Plus we are going slower to protect opposition transition which has been an issue for a while. Problem is going so slow and wide with ball movement allows opposition to get back flood out forward line and then go hard on counter offence.

It’s also the tactic Buckley went to right before he got the chop.

 

[yebach]

Having just skim read that and thank you MrCristo for your efforts.
I haven't changed my mind at all.
We're very good at a game plan that doesn't work, especially against the better teams.
For the clearance & contested ball, look at the midfield Bevo's had over the journey, and yes now they are starting to age.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Nice read. I'd love to know any workrate stats, like GPS, telstra tracker as at the ground, I don't think we are working hard enough to get numbers to the contest. Our flick it out to the open runner with handballs have dried up.
Our forward structure is poor for the talent there. Made worse with Weightman missing (the only forward who leads at the ball carrier). Why don't Naughts and Jamarra lead straight at the ball carrier demanding the ball. They seem to always want it high heading back to goals.

I still think we can turn it around but it needs a joint effort from the whole team.

 

[MrChristo]

We're very good at a game plan that doesn't work, especially against the better teams.

This, and possibly the exact opposite is a very good point.
Maybe our annual stats are over-inflated by really beating up badly on bad teams, where we can get into full flow, top gear?
(And yes, we potentially grind to a halt against the top tier?)

Good point. I'll dig around some more later today. Genuinely curious myself now I've started.

 

[BEaston]

great analysis mate.

I'd be interested to see any correlation between scoring efficiency and scoring accuracy vs win/loss.

 

[MrChristo]

great analysis mate.

I'd be interested to see any correlation between scoring efficiency and scoring accuracy vs win/loss.

I'm breaking off mid-analysis (yep, sorry, that's a terribly w@nky sentence!!), but I've just looked at our side of that equation and I'm, I don't even know what to say? Stunned? Amazed??...

From a Bulldogs attacking/scoring perspective, these are how 'efficient' we are; (ie. scores and goals per I50);

2016; 2.29 entries per score, 4.39 entries per goal. (Bolded for obvious reasons)
2017; 2.15 entries per score, 4.6 entries per goal.
2018; 2.51 entries per score, 5.1 entries per goal. [Trending downward, and fair enough.]
2019; 2.27 entries per score, 4.44 entries per goal.
2020; 2.36 entries per score, 4.6 entries per goal.
2021; 2.20 entries per score, 4.20 entries per goal. (2021 continues to surprise (and honestly, embarrass) me. We were elite!
2022; 2.32 entries per score, 4.38 entries per goal.
2023; 2.30 entries per score, 4.50 entries per goal.
2024; 2.24 entries per score, 3.79 entries per goal!!

Does that not go against every single person's instinct here?? [Yes, I suspect strongly that our defensive numbers will be bad...(although, now I'm not as sure as I was...)...]
...but factually, this is our most 'efficient' year of scoring under Bevo.

I'm blown away. Based purely on numbers (which yes, yes, clearly have its flaws), there's no way, no way on the surface you can blame a coach for where we're at.
[Deeper dive still to some.]

EDIT: I'll try to get to individual games next week.

 

[stefoid]

Think youre right in concentrating on quality over quantity (clearances, inside 50s, both for and against), but thats hard to quantify with stats.

score per inside 50 is a pretty good one, but how are we tracking for opponents scores per I50?

score from stoppages differential? is that a measure of how well we clear the ball vs our opponents?

 

[dogwatch]

I'm breaking off mid-analysis (yep, sorry, that's a terribly w@nky sentence!!), but I've just looked at our side of that equation and I'm, I don't even know what to say? Stunned? Amazed??...

From a Bulldogs attacking/scoring perspective, these are how 'efficient' we are; (ie. scores and goals per I50);

2016; 2.29 entries per score, 4.39 entries per goal. (Bolded for obvious reasons)
2017; 2.15 entries per score, 4.6 entries per goal.
2018; 2.51 entries per score, 5.1 entries per goal. [Trending downward, and fair enough.]
2019; 2.27 entries per score, 4.44 entries per goal.
2020; 2.36 entries per score, 4.6 entries per goal.
2021; 2.20 entries per score, 4.20 entries per goal. (2021 continues to surprise (and honestly, embarrass) me. We were elite!
2022; 2.32 entries per score, 4.38 entries per goal.
2023; 2.30 entries per score, 4.50 entries per goal.
2024; 2.24 entries per score, 3.79 entries per goal!!

Does that not go against every single person's instinct here?? [Yes, I suspect strongly that our defensive numbers will be bad...(although, now I'm not as sure as I was...)...]
...but factually, this is our most 'efficient' year of scoring under Bevo.

I'm blown away. Based purely on numbers (which yes, yes, clearly have its flaws), there's no way, no way on the surface you can blame a coach for where we're at.
[Deeper dive still to some.]

EDIT: I'll try to get to individual games next week.

This is missing some important information.

• How many entries per game did we get in each of those years?
• What were the opposition's numbers for all these stats?
• Were any of those years' averages badly skewed by some dominant games or, conversely, by a few games where we got smashed?

It's hard to take too much out of this with only a subset of the data. Your data tells us a bit about our attacking efficiency but nothing about our ability to stop our opponents from scoring.

It's a bit trite to say it, but for all the deep-diving we can do the key stat is always whether we scored more than our opponents. Wins vs losses.

So no matter how efficient we might have been in certain years it would do us little good if
(a) we weren't getting many entries anyway, and/or
(b) we were allowing even more entries into our opponents' f50 and/or
(c) they were much more efficient inside 50 than us.

One example is you could have a side (not necessarily us) that chips it around a lot, plays possession and only makes the i50 entry when a gold-plated chance finally presents itself (or they get a 50m penalty etc). All caution, highly efficient i50, but not much daring.​

​

Another example is a side that is prepared to engage in a fast-moving shoot-out and despite scoring freely gets outscored by the opposition who get even more i50s or who are even more efficient inside 50. Lots of daring, high scoring due to so many entries, but pretty bad defence.​

​

A third example (probably us last weekend) is a side that might get plenty of i50s but gets killed on the rebound for one reason or another - maybe because it presses up too far, or it doesn't apply enough forward defensive pressure, or midfield pressure, or because its defence is inexperienced or poorly drilled.​

Looking back over the Bevo years we have never had a dominant percentage (i.e. greatly outscoring our opponents over the whole year) except for 2021. There's a compelling case that 2021 was in fact our best performed H&A season in the Bevo era. Same number of wins as 2016 (15) but a much higher percentage and we averaged 90 points a game compared to only 84 a game in 2016. (Interestingly we averaged 95 points a game in 2015!)

Here's how our H&A percentage has looked over all the Bevo years including 2015.
In the right hand column is the H&A percentage of the eventual premier. The average percentage for premiers over these years is 127.9%

Colour scale is from green (high/good) to red (low/not so good).



Our 2016 percentage was the second lowest for any premier. Which sort of figures, because while we had a solid H&A season (15 wins) it was no better than another 6 clubs. In that year Sydney had 151% and Geelong 143%. It was just that we had that perfect patch of four games in the finals.

While Richmond in 2017 and 2019 were low like us, you can readily see that dominant sides - the ones that end up premiers - typically go through the season with a 130-ish percentage. The only year we have got close to that was 2021. Even if you go back another 20 years the average H&A percentage of the eventual premier is still around 130.

Apart from 2021 we were (on averages) somewhat better than most teams over the H&A season but not dominant. And of course in 2017 & 2018 we were mid table or worse.


Now coming back to your Entries per Score and Entries per Goal, here's how it looks in a chart (remembering that a low number is good and a high number is bad):



The chart makes it easier to see that there are probably only two strong divergences - 2018 and 2024. We all know we were crap in 2018 so we probably don't need to explore that one any further. And I'd argue that 2024 is too small a sample to be comparable just yet. However if you DO want to discuss 2024 I'd say that it shows we are pretty efficient with our i50s (which is great) but we are very poor at defending, or when it slingshots out of our f50. That has certainly been a hot topic since Sunday.

The rest of the years there is not really much divergence. The average is 4.42 and even our premiership year was not much better than that. I have no knowledge of what the overall AFL average would be but I'd guess it would be close to ours (4.42).


tl;dr
Others may have a different interpretation but I don't really see any strong trends or indicators in all those EPGs.

The more telling stats would be how do they compare with our opposition's EPGs?
But then why not simply look at the wins vs losses column?

The deep diving probably becomes useful if we want to analyse how a particular aspect of our game has changed (attack/defence/midfield/whatever).

 

[MrChristo]

Totally agree that's the 'efficiency' bit was only half cooked.

Maybe I should have been more specific in my first paragraph, but yep, the defensive numbers will come. (Probably next week now).

 

[wayniac]

This is missing some important information.

• How many entries per game did we get in each of those years?
• What were the opposition's numbers for all these stats?
• Were any of those years' averages badly skewed by some dominant games or, conversely, by a few games where we got smashed?

It's hard to take too much out of this with only a subset of the data. Your data tells us a bit about our attacking efficiency but nothing about our ability to stop our opponents from scoring.

It's a bit trite to say it, but for all the deep-diving we can do the key stat is always whether we scored more than our opponents. Wins vs losses.

So no matter how efficient we might have been in certain years it would do us little good if
(a) we weren't getting many entries anyway, and/or
(b) we were allowing even more entries into our opponents' f50 and/or
(c) they were much more efficient inside 50 than us.

One example is you could have a side (not necessarily us) that chips it around a lot, plays possession and only makes the i50 entry when a gold-plated chance finally presents itself (or they get a 50m penalty etc). All caution, highly efficient i50, but not much daring.​

​

Another example is a side that is prepared to engage in a fast-moving shoot-out and despite scoring freely gets outscored by the opposition who get even more i50s or who are even more efficient inside 50. Lots of daring, high scoring due to so many entries, but pretty bad defence.​

​

A third example (probably us last weekend) is a side that might get plenty of i50s but gets killed on the rebound for one reason or another - maybe because it presses up too far, or it doesn't apply enough forward defensive pressure, or midfield pressure, or because its defence is inexperienced or poorly drilled.​

Looking back over the Bevo years we have never had a dominant percentage (i.e. greatly outscoring our opponents over the whole year) except for 2021. There's a compelling case that 2021 was in fact our best performed H&A season in the Bevo era. Same number of wins as 2016 (15) but a much higher percentage and we averaged 90 points a game compared to only 84 a game in 2016. (Interestingly we averaged 95 points a game in 2015!)

Here's how our H&A percentage has looked over all the Bevo years including 2015.
In the right hand column is the H&A percentage of the eventual premier. The average percentage for premiers over these years is 127.9%

Colour scale is from green (high/good) to red (low/not so good).

View attachment 1983330

Our 2016 percentage was the second lowest for any premier. Which sort of figures, because while we had a solid H&A season (15 wins) it was no better than another 6 clubs. In that year Sydney had 151% and Geelong 143%. It was just that we had that perfect patch of four games in the finals.

While Richmond in 2017 and 2019 were low like us, you can readily see that dominant sides - the ones that end up premiers - typically go through the season with a 130-ish percentage. The only year we have got close to that was 2021. Even if you go back another 20 years the average H&A percentage of the eventual premier is still around 130.

Apart from 2021 we were (on averages) somewhat better than most teams over the H&A season but not dominant. And of course in 2017 & 2018 we were mid table or worse.


Now coming back to your Entries per Score and Entries per Goal, here's how it looks in a chart (remembering that a low number is good and a high number is bad):

View attachment 1983339

The chart makes it easier to see that there are probably only two strong divergences - 2018 and 2024. We all know we were crap in 2018 so we probably don't need to explore that one any further. And I'd argue that 2024 is too small a sample to be comparable just yet. However if you DO want to discuss 2024 I'd say that it shows we are pretty efficient with our i50s (which is great) but we are very poor at defending, or when it slingshots out of our f50. That has certainly been a hot topic since Sunday.

The rest of the years there is not really much divergence. The average is 4.42 and even our premiership year was not much better than that. I have no knowledge of what the overall AFL average would be but I'd guess it would be close to ours (4.42).


tl;dr
Others may have a different interpretation but I don't really see any strong trends or indicators in all those EPGs.

The more telling stats would be how do they compare with our opposition's EPGs?
But then why not simply look at the wins vs losses column?

The deep diving probably becomes useful if we want to analyse how a particular aspect of our game has changed (attack/defence/midfield/whatever).

That chart implies our defence is worse than our offence.

 

[MrChristo]

Ok, so here's the defensive numbers, and unfortunately it tells us 2 things.

1) Our eyes aren't deceiving us. We're just not up to it defensively, and rarely have been.

[Side note. I've advocated for years (like, 20 of them!) that defence wins Leagues, Championships, Premierships (and most other ships you can think of). The 2004 Pistons NBA year is, well, Silver to 2016 Gold. But I digress...]

2) I've probably wasted my time 'diving', as it turns out a simple look at the "points against" numbers tells a compelling tale.

Our defensive numbers first;

No surprise that 2021 was our best ratio of goals/I50 allowed @ 4.44.
(2016, was 4.18)...

...but overall this is where we consistently fall down.

Our [defensive] scoring shots/I50 sit very consistently in the 2.2 to 2.35 range (higher = better), but when compared to the Premiers/Top of Ladder/Best % each year, they are consistently 2.3 to 2.6...and unfortunately Melbourne were off the charts in 2021 @ 2.86!!

Goals/I50 paints the same picture.
From 2016 to now, we sit ~ 4.0 to 4.4 mark...League leaders (again, winners, Top spot, Top %) 4.6 - 5.4!

A couple of observations from the data; Every year from 2016 to 2024 except 1 (*) we've allowed more goals than behinds by quite a margin.
This isn't luck, or chance, or coincidence.
Just a guess (as I don't have the breakdown), but I suspect that because we play such a high, pressing zone, anything that gets through ends up either close to goal or leads to a shot with little pressure.

(*) Which is where crazy 2023 comes in! "Wasted years" is a term that gets thrown around in here quite a bit, but stats-wise, last year could have been it!
3rd best for I50's allowed. (5th best for total points allowed)
We allowed a score every 2.34 entries. [Collingwood 2.36]
We allowed a goal every 4.43 entries. [Collingwood 4.84]...

Those late losses last year could easily have cost us another Flag, in what was a stupidly even finals series.

[I hate old sayings, but...], "Bad kicking is bad football"...genuinely has some merit.

Every team, bar one! who has finished either Premiers, Top or Top % has kicked more goals than points...and 10 of the 14 teams in that category has kicked a ratio of 1.16+ (goals to points).
From 2016 to 2023, the best we've done was 1.12 (Which doesn't look like much of a difference, but it's pretty fine margins, plus the rest of our years have been 1.10 or less).


Sooooo...Looking forward, what has it all told me?

Pros: We've definitely changed our gameplan/style. Much more kicking/marking. It was mentioned multiple times during the telecast that if we take 100+ marks we win the game this year. [I see that as a chicken/egg conundrum myself (ie. when we're in front late we'd chip it around more)].

I'd like to think that our skills and decisions making have improved, but it could easily just be an indicator of the oppositions pressure...(#)

Our goal kicking!!! All of the above stats were taken prior to the Richmond game, but even after that we are kicking 1.36 goals to behinds!! (That's genuinely exciting for me!)
As such our goals per I50 [and better still after the Richmond game] is at 3.79, better than any 'elite' team since 2016.
Crazy since we all seem to see it as not working. It clearly, most definitely is!

Cons: Our defence isn't coming along for the ride. Ranked 7th for points against, and 2.26/4.26 scores/goals per I50 is absolutely 'normal' for us...which really needs to be closer to 2.50/4.80...
(Which honestly, I find a bit odd. I would have thought a more chip and mark style would help our defence...)

Maybe this is Bevo's Achilles Heel...but at least he seems to be trying something.

Anyway, this is all news to me. I've been learning as I've gone through this.

Random opinion; Yay Bevo? The consistency is pretty amazing. It didn't really ever register with me how Richmond have fallen. A couple of Flags (great, obviously!), but the bottom is deep. (Add Hawthorn and WC to teams who won around us).
Even Collingwood spent 2014/14/16/17 out of finals, so it's been a pretty remarkable achievement (imho!) to be at the pointy end so often after genuine Premiership tilts.
He (along with the Coaching staff) is clearly trying something different this year. Seems to be working up one end at least.

Nay? The same old defensive issues. Even with Jones having an amazing year the numbers haven't changed, which means the system isn't good.
I get the idea of the high press. in 2016 it was amazing. But when teams are willing to barrel the ball forward at speed (and we aren't operating at 110% [hehe]) it's broken down too easily.


(#) If I get time that week, I think that might be worth a look. I genuinely don't understand the "Pressure rating" system, but I would like to see how we go when teams bring it...

Anyway, there has to be better excuses to drink a bottle of red...