Sheffield Shield Final Round

[Gak Attack]

Well not sure if it has happened before but every single team can make the final entering the last round, also even the top team Victoria can still miss it completely. Victoria is the only team that can win and know they are through and would also be hosting. 2nd placed SA could win and still be overtaken by WA if they win by a bit more. Correct me if I'm wrong here somewhere.

The games:

Tasmania v Victoria @ The Boot
NSW v SA @ SCG
WA v Queensland @ The WACA

All games kick off on the 14th.

So who's game enough to predict the final?

I will have a crack and say it will be a draw at the boot. NSW gets a win over SA and WA sneak in another win to make a remarkable late season run. The final would be WA hosting NSW, unless Vics get first innings. That's my uneducated guess anyways!

 

[Phone]

it'd be pretty amazing if NSW miss out on the final because they were 2 overs behind the over rate

TAS
NSW
WA

my tips to get the better of their games. NSW-SA is subject to whether Haddin plays. anyway, who knows if those teams will be able to get outright wins.

 

[Selective Retention]

 

[Gak Attack]

I forgot they would of known a result would be need a few weeks out down there. Expected the boring 2013 wicket.

 

[eth-dog]

Vics vs WA at the G. Victoria win, Draw at the lesser G, WA over the pinapples

 

[Phone]

i think two days could be washed out in the SA-NSW match and a result would still happen, such is the shitness of both teams batting

 

[Phone]

actually only tassie and victorian have batting line-ups who aren't total shit so it seems a shame only one of them will make it

(although that hasn't stopped those two from putting in some rank batting displays)

 

[Phone]

(although if tassie win outright but vic take first innings points......)

 

[Doodlesweaver]

Warriors were in this position last year. In fact, they get into half decent positions then crap themselves at the final hurdle in Shield semi-regularly.

The fact that North is goneski as is Shaun Marsh seems to be a cause for hope though. Neither of them have a clue what it is to be in a winning team for anythinng.

Even Voges has won a Country Championship with Notts first year he played with them.

 

[Kyptastic]

As I posted in the other thread, gonna back in a WA vs Tas final at the WACA.

Lets face it, who wouldn't want to see Ponting and Huss go against each other one last time.

 

[eth-dog]

I'd rather see D huss getting one over his older brother tbh

 

[Bucking Beads]

Bulls will win outright in WA.

 

[Gak Attack]

I'd rather see D huss getting one over his older brother tbh

**** D Huss.

 

[sherb]

i think two days could be washed out in the SA-NSW match and a result would still happen, such is the shitness of both teams batting

Batting shitness seems to be a common theme amongst all six sides to be honest.

In the current round of games I think Tassie was the only side which passed 300 in an innings.

 

[BACCS]

Watch out guys, it's Redbacks time!!

 

[hotdish]

What a predicament we find ourselves in! I have a few comments to make before I get into predictions.

The first is the fact that there is a VERY SHORT turnaround between rounds 9 and 10. With games finishing as late as 5-6PM sunday and beginning thursday as early as 1030AM, whoever can get their quicks fresh will be odds-on favourites.

The second is the timing of the matches:

Vic @ Tas: 1030 Eastern
SA @ NSW: 1100 Eastern
QLD @ WA: 1330 Eastern (1030 Local)

With all six teams in play, the variables of rain, (early) declerations and obviously other results play into captains calculations (and how teams bat/bowl chasing/defending). QLD/WA have a very small advantage going into the last day with the time difference, knowing the finals results of other games before theirs finishes.

Third factor is the most interesting one: The toss and first innings points. Whoever wins the toss and bats in the non Tasmania game has a huge advantage if they put runs on the board.

Finally, the rules re teams being tied on overall points. Clause 21.3 of the sheffield shield rules states:
In the event of an equality of points,higher number of outright wins will determine the positions on the Sheffield Shield table. If that is tied, it goes to quotient. Currently the quotient ladder (with outrights in brackets) is as follows:


Tas 1.327 (3)
NSW 1.106 (3)
Vic 1.013 (4)
Qld .952 (3)
SA .884 (4)
WA .829 (4)

What does this mean?

*WA could win outright and still miss out on the finals (if SA and Vic win outright and they don't make up the quotient difference)
* First innings points alone, are almost worthless due to most teams being able to finish first. Teams will be going for outrights and thus teams batting second chasing a big score will have to bat aggressively or declare behind.

COMMENTS:

There is no way there isn't a result in Hobart (unless days get washed out). There is a good possibility that this game is over by late on day 3, or lunch on day 4. I don't see a flat wicket being produced with a result needed. If Tas win the toss, bowl and role the vics for 150-200, and bat OK in first innings, it's pretty much game over for QLD and NSW.

First innings scores this season @ Bellerive:

SA 112 (Tas 138) - Toss Tas
Tas 95 (QLD 360) - Toss QLD
WA 67 (Tas 448) - Toss WA
Tas 425 (NSW 500) - Toss Tas

Much of the same in previous years.

VIC @ Tas prediction: Tas outright. Obvious disclosure, I am a Tassie fan. We have a strong home advantage over the years, and when our seamers are on song, we are tough to beat down there, especially after winning the toss. The fact that we can bat Gulbis (former Vic 1st grade highest run scorer) at 10 gives Tas great batting depth. McKay is out injured, and with the vics sucking post christmas, Tas will be favourites heading in. However I fear any batting lineup with Hussey, White and Quiney. Should be a cracker.

QLD @ WA prediction: WA. QLD have had some injury/form issues pop up at the wrong end of the season. I believe that McDermott, Cutting, Feldman and Hauritz will struggle to get up (or have already been ruled out). While Harris is a warrior and has a high threshold for pain, questions will be asked if he can back up on a few days rest to bowl another 40-50 overs in 3 days. WA have momentum (even if that has been constructed by two fluke lower order partnerships lately) and Voges and Hussey anchor their battings. The return of Mitch Marsh's bowling adds a dynamic element to the warriors side. Apart from Burns and Hopes, I'm not sure if QLD can rely on anyone for a big score. The return of Pomersbach in a key game will be an interesting angle.

SA@ NSW - Wild-card game. No idea. You would have to think that NSW would be favourites. Bollinger was injured during the game (hamstring), so one would assume he is out. Haddin is a possible out also if required in India. Will Dan Christian get a call up for SA against his former side? There have been two matches at the SCG this season, with no outright result. I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that the team who loses the toss is in big trouble and will need to declare behind on 1st innings, or make 500+ and back themselves in to bat only once.

 

[eth-dog]

So basically everyone thinks it'll be their side vs WA/SA

 

[Phone]

there's only been one game at the SCG this season, and it was heavily affected by rain (http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia-domestic-2012/engine/match/576095.html) so. With NSW being down their top 4 performed batsmen of the season, and SA down Hughes, it's just incredibly hard to picture a high run scoring draw. I mean, Copeland & Mennie will be one of each team's best performed batsmen for the season.....

 

[eddiesmith]

So basically everyone thinks it'll be their side vs WA/SA

No suprise

Anyway I would like to see Victoria pick another batsman for Sheridan, wouldnt mind D-Pat in for McKay either

First innings point will be important for Victoria, puts them in a very strong position then if NSW can get the full points against the redbacks we will be right.

So given the likelihood of a very lively Bellerive pitch its important for the extra batsman imo

WA v QLD is impossible to pick, both are pretty even and inconsistent

 

[brisbane13]

actually only tassie and victorian have batting line-ups who aren't total shit so it seems a shame only one of them will make it

(although that hasn't stopped those two from putting in some rank batting displays)

yeah but the victorian batsmen are better at chocking

 

[eth-dog]

No suprise

Anyway I would like to see Victoria pick another batsman for Sheridan, wouldnt mind D-Pat in for McKay either

First innings point will be important for Victoria, puts them in a very strong position then if NSW can get the full points against the redbacks we will be right.

So given the likelihood of a very lively Bellerive pitch its important for the extra batsman imo

WA v QLD is impossible to pick, both are pretty even and inconsistent

I think just swap C-Mac for McDonald/Stoinis tbh

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Interesting that the team on the bottom of the shield ladder has the least amount of losses

I'm not sure that would have happened before.

 

[DrMike]

Don't worry, everything is going to fall into WA's hands to get a home final, then we'll finish last

 

[Gak Attack]

Don't worry, everything is going to fall into WA's hands to get a home final, then we'll finish last

I'll be pissed if we host it(but will get over it!), although that is a long shot. Normally if we're a chance I always book a weeks holidays so I can go down and watch it but had no confidence and didn't bother.

 

[Doodlesweaver]

Don't worry, everything is going to fall into WA's hands to get a home final, then we'll finish last

Most of the WA team have been out on the lash in anticipation of the Shield final (counting eggs is a big sport in WA) and also, adding another string to the ways to **** up bow, have forgotten to fill out their 'how I can suck up to the coach better' forms.

The Bulls will be playing the U23s by the 14th.