Analysis Should Melbourne rebuild like Richmond if they struggle in 2025?

[Trav 20]

Melbourne look like they are at the crossroad. Have a good year and they could compete again. But with a poor year and many of their stars starting to age. They may want to sell the farm and get what they can to fast tract their rebuild before future drafts get compromised.

They also have some good talent that looks like they want out.
Pickett is reportedly looking to go west. Petracca looked disgruntled about his injuries from last year and Oliver looks like he wants a sea change to get away from the party/pokie life of inner Melbourne.

So should Melbourne rebuild, maybe with a new coach if things go poorly this year? Should they look to trade players like Pickett, Petracca, Oliver and possibly some of their older players like Lever and May? What sort of picks would they get or should they look for if they trade out these players?

B: McVee, May, Lever

HB: Windsor, Petty, Salem

C: Sharp, Oliver, Langdon

HF: Pickett, van Rooyen, Billings

F: Turner, Fritsch, Chandler

FOLL: Gawn, Petracca, Viney

IC: Rivers, Bowey, Howes, Langford,

SUB: Sparrow

Based on yesterday's probables versus possibles this is roughly our current best lineup. Ten players are 23 and under (bolded).

This doesn't include 23 and under players such as Moniz-Wakefield, Woewodin, Laurie, Tholstrup, and Kynan Brown who have all debuted and will get games. It also doesn't include Jefferson and Lindsay, who both played in yesterday's probables, and Ricky Mentha a very promising rookie who are all yet to debut.

Only two of our ''stars'' are over 30 and one is coming off yet another All Australian.

Oliver and Petracca are contracted for 5 years + and are both in their 20s. They're going nowhere and I expect both to have huge years. Pickett may leave, but I doubt before the end of 2026.

This thread isn't about Collingwood, but I doubt you have anywhere near ten 23 and unders in your best 23.

Btw, this thread should be merged with another that is almost identical.

 

[Rich01]

No one should ever be rebuilding like Richmond

The last decade for Essendon and St Kilda suggests otherwise.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

B: McVee, May, Lever

HB: Windsor, Petty, Salem

C: Sharp, Oliver, Langdon

HF: Pickett, van Rooyen, Billings

F: Turner, Fritsch, Chandler

FOLL: Gawn, Petracca, Viney

IC: Rivers, Bowey, Howes, Langford,

SUB: Sparrow

Based on yesterday's probables versus possibles this is roughly our current best lineup. Nine players are 23 and under (bolded).

This doesn't include 23 and under players such as Moniz-Wakefield, Woewodin, Laurie, Tholstrup, and Kynan Brown who have all debuted and will get games. It also doesn't include Jefferson and Lindsay, who both played in yesterday's probables, and Ricky Mentha a very promising rookie who are all yet to debut.

Only two of our ''stars'' are over 30 and one is coming off yet another All Australian.

Oliver and Petracca are contracted for 5 years + and are both in their 20s. They're going nowhere and I expect both to have huge years. Pickett may leave, but I doubt before the end of 2026.

This thread isn't about Collingwood, but I doubt you have anywhere near nine 23 and unders in your best 23.

Btw, this thread should be merged with another that is almost identical.

So you have a bit of young talent and hopefully you go up the ladder rather than down. But there is lots of young talent in lots of sides. So if you continue to struggle this year would you consider trading out some of your older talent for good draft picks or are you happy to continue doing the status quo? You finished 14th last season I'm sure you would be upset with a similar result this year? Especially if Oliver and Petracca are down on form.

 

[Trav 20]

So you have a bit of young talent and hopefully you go up the ladder rather than down. But there is lots of young talent in lots of sides. So if you continue to struggle this year would you consider trading out some of your older talent for good draft picks or are you happy to continue doing the status quo? You finished 14th last season I'm sure you would be upset with a similar result this year? Especially if Oliver and Petracca are down on form.

It's hard to be definitive in February about what we'll do in November. I don't have a crystal ball.

We finished top 4 in 2021, 2022 and 2023. In my opinion, we have more talent now than in those years.

Hopefully, last year was an aberration and let's not forget that no team had ever finished 14th before with 11 wins. But we acknowledge it was a year from hell where nothing went right.

I expect a bounce back year but don't think our age demographic is so old that we'd throw the baby out with the bath water if we don't.

 

[markm106]

No one should ever be rebuilding like Richmond

Bottoming out can be and usually is years of pain. It’s bloody risky but they probably didn’t have much choice with players wanting out. And they could have held one or two maybe but they were very fortunate with the deals that got done. So no doubt took the deals now.
But they are likely in for a world of pain and if this draft flops for them that’s years in the doldrums.

 

[RUNVS]

No one should rebuild like Richmond is as it is a recipe for disaster. They have gone too young too quickly, and teams with a tonne of youth and very few senior players to help protect them and help develop them almost never succeed.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Melbourne look like they are at the crossroad. Have a good year and they could compete again. But with a poor year and many of their stars starting to age. They may want to sell the farm and get what they can to fast tract their rebuild before future drafts get compromised.

They also have some good talent that looks like they want out.
Pickett is reportedly looking to go west. Petracca looked disgruntled about his injuries from last year and Oliver looks like he wants a sea change to get away from the party/pokie life of inner Melbourne.

So should Melbourne rebuild, maybe with a new coach if things go poorly this year? Should they look to trade players like Pickett, Petracca, Oliver and possibly some of their older players like Lever and May? What sort of picks would they get or should they look for if they trade out these players?

Being stuck at the bottom of the ladder for ages is a risk with a deliberate complete rebuild. Something Melbourne fans would already know about (and, yes, it can happen without deliberately going the full rebuild option but accidentally falling into it - speaking as a North fan expecting at least two more bottom six finishes, probably one more bottom two).

Is there a reason to really do that? Yes, it seems some want out, some are nearing their natural end, if things go pear-shaped this year then they probably will next as well and without cleaning out all the experience and having nobody left to lead that already leads to bringing in new high-end talent.

There is such a thing as going too far and not being able to build the new players properly. That risk is perhaps heightened with smaller clubs without the resources to accelerate development. Perhaps favour a refresh, trade out the disgruntled whoa re unlikely to be much help to youngsters learning the level; but a full rebuild often just leads to medium and long term pain and 3-4 attempts before it comes right.

 

[Grin]

I think that the 'scorched Earth' rebuild policy is a bad idea. As others have noted, you don't know how many attempts it is going to take to get there and if you will get there. If a team that wins back to back wooden spoons slowly and painfully climbs the ladder over several seasons but then can get no higher than 6th and losing Elimination Finals, is this a successful rebuild? And where to from there?

Look at the Kangaroos at the moment. North Melbourne have been in rebuilding mode for the past 5 years and are still languishing at the bottom of the ladder getting thrashed week after week and showing no progress at all, in fact even getting worse in 2024 with little hope for a bright future.

This.
Also it takes so much more than good luck with recruiting players.
Richmond was rebuilding from the Mid 80s to mid teens. It wasn't until we got our Board, admin, coaching/assistant coaches, development and high performance staff, finance, recruiting network etc. etc. etc. that we got some success after a biblical period in the wilderness.
There's absolutely no guarantee that the current rebuild will pay off
Richmond were forced into their current predicament by equalisation, lack of player development, horrific run of injuries, quality players leaving, management change, coach bailing mid season etc. We were lucky we got some good deals and lots of picks in what was apparently a very good draft year. It wasn't something Richmond planned in 2023 or early 2024. It's just how it worked out. In the best case scenario, were not contending again for several years.

It's not scorched earth because we've still got lots of experienced premiership players to provide some protection and leadership, but a massive gamble none the less and not one you'd take deliberately.

 

[Gavin Excell]

This.
Also it takes so much more than good luck with recruiting players.
Richmond was rebuilding from the Mid 80s to mid teens. It wasn't until we got our Board, admin, coaching/assistant coaches, development and high performance staff, finance, recruiting network etc. etc. etc. that we got some success after a biblical period in the wilderness.
There's absolutely no guarantee that the current rebuild will pay off
Richmond were forced into their current predicament by equalisation, lack of player development, horrific run of injuries, quality players leaving, management change, coach bailing mid season etc. We were lucky we got some good deals and lots of picks in what was apparently a very good draft year. It wasn't something Richmond planned in 2023 or early 2024. It's just how it worked out. In the best case scenario, were ncontending again for several years.

It's not scorched earth because we've still got lots of experienced premiership players to provide some protection and leadership, but a massive gamble none the less and not one you'd take deliberately.

Yet look at a team like Essendon
I may stand corrected but they've never gone full rebuild over the last 20 but have been awful.

 

[Grin]

Yet look at a team like Essendon
I may stand corrected but they've never gone full rebuild over the last 20 but have been awful.

But is that because they haven’t gone the full rebuild, or for other reasons?
Geelong haven’t gone the full rebuild and they’ve been up there for 15 years.

 

[Gavin Excell]

But is that because they haven’t gone the full rebuild, or for other reasons?
Geelong haven’t gone the full rebuild and they’ve been up there for 15 years.

Dunno
Obviously development is key. Essendon can't simply have just drafted poorly?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Dunno
Obviously development is key. Essendon can't simply have just drafted poorly?

They had 15 top 10 picks in 19 drafts from 2005-2023. It's not a lack of high picks that's been the problem.

 

[Grin]

Dunno
Obviously development is key. Essendon can't simply have just drafted poorly?

I reckon that’s just part of it and possibly a symptom of a poorly managed club
When Richmond were a joke for over 3 decades, it wasn’t just our recruiting.

 

[Grin]

They had 15 top 10 picks in 19 drafts from 2005-2023. It's not a lack of high picks that's been the problem.

Won the draft for about 20 straight

 

[wingersclub]

Give me a flag at the G this year and they can do whatever they want… I’ll be drunk for the next ten years celebrating anyway so I’ll miss the rebuild hehe

 

[kreuze_missile]

We would have traded pick 3 for May and Lever.

If we had a backline we’d win the next 3 flags by a mile.

 

[spky1234]

This.
Also it takes so much more than good luck with recruiting players.
Richmond was rebuilding from the Mid 80s to mid teens. It wasn't until we got our Board, admin, coaching/assistant coaches, development and high performance staff, finance, recruiting network etc. etc. etc. that we got some success after a biblical period in the wilderness.
There's absolutely no guarantee that the current rebuild will pay off
Richmond were forced into their current predicament by equalisation, lack of player development, horrific run of injuries, quality players leaving, management change, coach bailing mid season etc. We were lucky we got some good deals and lots of picks in what was apparently a very good draft year. It wasn't something Richmond planned in 2023 or early 2024. It's just how it worked out. In the best case scenario, were not contending again for several years.

It's not scorched earth because we've still got lots of experienced premiership players to provide some protection and leadership, but a massive gamble none the less and not one you'd take deliberately.

Hardly a gamble imo. If Bolton, Baker, Rioli and Graham stayed and we only added Lalor and Whitlock/Shanhan with our 2nd rounder (assuming we didn't trade it) - that list was never going to amount to anything.

We would've likely finished bottom 3 again with them.

Lynch, and Prestia retire in the next 2 years, whilst Vlastuin, Broad, Macca, and Nank will also be retiring over the next 3-4 years.


Getting pick 1 and 19 every year doesn't give you the ability we would've needed to replenish the quality of players leaving, especially with our current age group of 19-25 years old being exceptionally poor - outside of Gibcus (injury prone) and Brown.

So either we keep these players, finish bottom 4, get more wins and look more respectable, we'll likely stay down there for longer. How many years for your draft picks to actually make an impact 3-4 years, then Taranto and Hopper will be 31-32.

Sometimes you need short term pain for a quicker rejuvenation.

Unless you guys think we are gambling are chances of coming bottom 6, instead of bottom 2 haha

 

[Mr.X]

Absolutely, demons have had their time and would be best placed to embrace a deep list refresh

 

[Mr.X]

It would be hard to rebuild if they finish top 6. But outside of that and the chances increase the lower they finish. It's not rocket science. This is all speculation though. They did finish 14th in 2024.

Will likely be different this year as bottom six finish looking likely

 

[Mr.X]

Rebuilds are not an easy sell to members, Melbourne supporters in particular prior to breaking the finals drought where sold the word a lot from three different coaches. I think with Goodwin if he came out and tried to say we're rebuilding it wouldn't be met well, but also i don't think a lot of our supporters would want Goodwin helming a full rebuild. They would probably be cautious but a bit more open to another coach doing it

Members could get it this year if Melb slide

Don’t expect they’ll be keen to hold onto Goodwin if 2025 goes badly

 

[FrustratedTiger]

Rebuilds take a few drafts and several years at the bottom of the ladder. And there's no guarantees that they will work. It takes a fairly patience supporter base to handle that. With Richmond's recent success, the supporter base will be more patient than a Melbourne fan base who are itching for a prolonged period of success. Especially when Melbourne has just had the elite list - more elite than ours was - and only pinch hit one flag. That list should have given them a dynasty.

The other problem with waiting until the end of this season to start a rebuild is the compromised drafts that Tasmania will cause in the next few years. Melbourne are going to be stuck in no man's land for a while I think.

 

[bjwilliams]

For Melbourne, they would probably offload Pickett, Petracca and Oliver for a raft of draft picks this year and next and change the coach. They might even look to offload troublemaker May for the right price if they decide to go full scorched earth.

Why on Earth would the club be looking to do this?

 

[My_Username]

We would have traded pick 3 for May and Lever.

If we had a backline we’d win the next 3 flags by a mile.

Because you'd easily fit both of them in your salary cap.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Melbourne seems to have recruited ok recently.

Pickett, Rivers, Bowey, McVee, Van Rooyen and Windsor are all proven to be decent or better and all could improve. Then add in 3 early picks in Langford, Lindsay and Tholstrup. It's not a terrible starting point.

It's not like Richmond who were basically bare bones for youngsters until this draft.

Agreed. We have some decent young pieces already on the list(Windsor, Tholstrup, Kozzy, McVee, JVR, Petty, Rivers, Bowey, Howes, Woewodin, Langford, Lindsay) which would put us in a better spot than the Tigers. So don't need a full rebuild, but agree with the OP that if this season doesn't go well, then the club should move on Goodwin and sell a couple of pieces before Tas hits the draft. Dees have some decent capital on their list. Could hit the next draft or two with a few firsts and a few seconds which will hold them in good stead during the Tas introduction.