Stats questions

[emuboy]

These two games are the only ones where teams have trailed by more than 10 goals at 3/4 time and lost by less than 4 goals (I don't have "in play" scores, just qtr. by qtr. ones):
View attachment 2186052

View attachment 2186053
And this one doesn't quite qualify, but it's close enough for me to throw it in!:
View attachment 2186054

Thanks, I thought such games would be rare. I should have guessed that Melbourne 1993 would be on the list, this Demons team could well take the prize for the most enigmatic side to ever take the field. And also Geelong vs. Swans, put the Cats and Swans together and they produce all sorts of crazy stats. Sort of like Richmond and St Kilda, the Saints and Tigers aren't big rivals and have never met in a Grand Final (the only Victgorian team aside from University the Tigers have never met in the Grand Final), but Richmond and St Kilda have a long list of weird statistical anomalies from their games over the years.

 

[ioppolo]

Another one that pops to mind from around 2003/2004, whichever year the Dogs won their wooden spoon.

WB lead Geelong 98-43 at 3/4 time, end up winning 99-81.

 

[worbod]

Another close call is Carlton vs Fitzroy from round 22, 1980. Fitzroy were behind by 58 points during the final quarter but within 15 minutes had reduced the margin to 5 points. Carlton managed to hold on for a four-point win, 21.20 (146) to 20.22 (142).

 

[North park]

I recall working at this North Melbourne v Adelaide game in 2010. The Kangaroos led by 54 points at 3/4 time but were outscored 7 goals 4 to 1 point in the final quarter but hung on to win by 9 points.

←	Round: 8 Venue: Docklands Date: Sat, 15-May-2010 7:10 PM Attendance: 16479​	→
North Melbourne	4.3.27​	8.6.54​	12.11.83​	12.12.84​
Adelaide	2.3.15​	2.4.16​	4.5.29​	11.9.75​
Qrt margin	NM by 12​	NM by 38​	NM by 54​	NM by 9​
Qrt scores	NM 27-15​	NM 27-1​	NM 29-13​	AD 46-1​
Field umpires	Mathew Nicholls (112), Scott Jeffery (172), Todd Keating (28)

 

[emuboy]

Another close call is Carlton vs Fitzroy from round 22, 1980. Fitzroy were behind by 58 points during the final quarter but within 15 minutes had reduced the margin to 5 points. Carlton managed to hold on for a four-point win, 21.20 (146) to 20.22 (142).

The 1980 season was a strange one at both ends of the ladder. Richmond were clearly the best side all year and easily won the premiership but these odd little lapses during the season saw the Tigers finished third. Carlton were second but the Blues went out in straight sets, as did minor premiers Geelong. Collingwood got into the GF from 5th but were clobbered by Richmond on Grand Final day.

At the bottom end of the ladder, eventual last placed Fitzroy had a higher points for than top team Geelong, had a percentage way higher than any of the other bottom three teams and boasted impressive wins over some of the better sides in the league, but things were so tight between Melbourne, Footscray, St Kilda and Fitzroy that any one of their many tight results going the other way could have put them last. For example, if a thriller between the Bulldogs and Melbourne earlier in the season had gone the way of the Dogs rather than the Dees, this would have put Melbourne last. If North had managed to beat St Kilda instead of the final round draw, the Saints would have been last. Footscray, which was 0-11 at the halfway point of the season and seemingly having last place wrapped up, would have wound up back in 12th if the drawn Kangaroos match had gone the way of the Saints and the Lions had caught the Blues.

 

[emuboy]

For five years from 2000-2004 inclusive, all of the 16 competing clubs made at least one finals series.

Discounting 1916, this was the smallest span of years I could find in which all completing clubs qualified for the finals at least once. Does anyone know of any time span shorter than this, or also relatively short? Considering the long finals droughts by some teams over the years, finding such a short window of finals appearances wouldn't be easy.

 

[Connor7395]

For five years from 2000-2004 inclusive, all of the 16 competing clubs made at least one finals series.

Discounting 1916, this was the smallest span of years I could find in which all completing clubs qualified for the finals at least once. Does anyone know of any time span shorter than this, or also relatively short? Considering the long finals droughts by some teams over the years, finding such a short window of finals appearances wouldn't be easy.

We'll have to disregard certain years in lenghty streaks of non-finals appearances.

• Hawthorn did not play finals between 1925 and 1956
• South Melbourne did not play finals between 1946 and 1969
• Melbourne did not play finals between 1965 and 1986
• Fitzroy did not play finals between 1961 and 1978
• St Kilda did not play finals between 1974 and 1990
• Gold Coast have never played finals
• Brisbane Bears did not make finals until 1995
• Fitzroy did not make finals after 1986
• Melbourne did not make finals between 1903 and 1914
• St. Kilda did not make finals until 1907
• University never made finals
• Fremantle didn't make finals until 2003

Disregard 1916 to 1918 as clubs slowly rejoined. From 1919 to 1924, there might be hope.

1919: Collingwood, South Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond
1920: Richmond, Fitzroy, Carlton, Collingwood
1921: Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong
1922: Collingwood, Essendon, Fitzroy, Carlton
1923: Essendon, Fitzroy, South Melbourne, Geelong
1924: Essendon, South Melbourne, Fitzroy, Richmond

Never mind. Melbourne and St Kilda didn't make finals.

Since 2000-2004 is accounted for, I think five years is the shortest time span after all.

 

[emuboy]

We'll have to disregard certain years in lenghty streaks of non-finals appearances.

• Hawthorn did not play finals between 1925 and 1956
• South Melbourne did not play finals between 1946 and 1969
• Melbourne did not play finals between 1965 and 1986
• Fitzroy did not play finals between 1961 and 1978
• St Kilda did not play finals between 1974 and 1990
• Gold Coast have never played finals
• Brisbane Bears did not make finals until 1995
• Fitzroy did not make finals after 1986
• Melbourne did not make finals between 1903 and 1914
• St. Kilda did not make finals until 1907
• University never made finals
• Fremantle didn't make finals until 2003

Disregard 1916 to 1918 as clubs slowly rejoined. From 1919 to 1924, there might be hope.

1919: Collingwood, South Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond
1920: Richmond, Fitzroy, Carlton, Collingwood
1921: Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong
1922: Collingwood, Essendon, Fitzroy, Carlton
1923: Essendon, Fitzroy, South Melbourne, Geelong
1924: Essendon, South Melbourne, Fitzroy, Richmond

Never mind. Melbourne and St Kilda didn't make finals.

Since 2000-2004 is accounted for, I think five years is the shortest time span after all.

Thanks Connor 7395, these decade long droughts are amazing. It got me thinking; which years would be the opposite of 2004 where all teams had been in the finals the last five years to where there were a number of clubs with long finals droughts at the same time?

First year I came up with was 1940. That season Essendon ended a finals drought of 14 years dating back to 1926, while Fitzroy hadn't played finals since 1924, the Lions breaking their own September drought in 1943. North Melbourne and Hawthorn were still to make the finals 15 years after their 1925 debuts. The Kangaroos would break through in 1945, but Hawthorn would have to wait until 1957, although they had a narrow miss in 1943. Also of note were Footscray and St Kilda. Although the Dogs and Saints had only just played finals in 1938 and 1939 respectively, for the Bulldogs this was their first final since their 1925 debut, and they wouldn't make the finals again until 1942. As for the Saints, 1929 and 1939 were their only finals appearances since 1918 - and they would not return to the finals until 1961.

In 1967, Richmond and South Melbourne entered the season carrying 20 and 22 year premiership droughts respectively. The Tigers would end their two decade September absence dating back to 1947 in the best possible way - winning the 1967 premiership - but for the Swans their own finals drought would not end until 1970, this paradoxically setting off one of South's worst eras, with the team finishing last in 1971, 1973 and 1975 and second last in 1972.

Also by 1967, North Melbourne, Fitzroy and the Bulldogs had not played finals for 9, 7 and 6 years respectively, but these dry spells would become full droughts by the time the Kangaroos and Bulldogs both appeared in the 1974 finals series after 16 and 13 year. Fitzroy would have to wait until 1979 to play finals again, setting of an interesting statistical anomaly, with the Lions making the finals in both the 1960s and 1970s, but only in the first and last year of each decade! Melbourne in 1967 had only been absent from the finals for the two years since the Demons 1964 premiership, so hardly a drought. And if anyone from 1967 was asked what would come first; Melbourne's next finals match of the appearance of Halley's Comet in 1986, I think 999,999 out of 1 million people would have bet on the Dees rather than Halley's Comet!

 

[Catsace]

Tell you what Emuboy, the fact that we're now half-way towards the next appearance of Halley's Comet in 2062 is a bit scary. Not sure me at 94 y/o then will be around to see that. But maybe there'll be a short period where all 19 clubs (inc Tassie) make the finals at least once.

 

[emuboy]

Tell you what Emuboy, the fact that we're now half-way towards the next appearance of Halley's Comet in 2062 is a bit scary. Not sure me at 94 y/o then will be around to see that. But maybe there'll be a short period where all 19 clubs (inc Tassie) make the finals at least once.

Looking at Melbourne's long finals absence 1965-1986 inclusive after 11 straight seasons of finals 1954-1964 with 6 premierships and two runners up placings, there's factors that make all this even stranger for the Dees.

Much emphasis is placed on the changes to metro and country zoning during these years and while no doubt this was a factor, at Reserves and Under 19's level Melbourne were a frequent finalist from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s and competed in a number of grand finals in these competitions, winning quite a few of them. This shows that the Demons were able to recruit and develop young players during this time. Yet apart from 1965 when the slump began and the Dees were 11-7 and 1976 when Melbourne finished 6th (this was an unusual season seeing slumps by regular finalists Collingwood & Richmond, and it was an even season with the Demons' record 10-12) they never really challenged for a spot in the finals at senior level and most seasons were in the bottom 4, if not last or second last.

However, during their years of dominance the Dees had a premiership winning record in the Reserves and Under 19s that was modest at best. In the Reserves in 1956 Melbourne emulated the senior team by winning the premiership, this victory over South Melbourne. They had also featured in the 1954 Reserves GF, but also like their senior counterparts that season, failed to win it and were beaten by Richmond. Melbourne's opponents in these games - Richmond and South Melbourne - are interesting, as Demons finals against the Tigers and Swans at senior level are extremely rare. However, after this Melbourne didn't play another Grand Final in the Reserves until 1969, a year that confirmed just how far Melbourne had fallen at senior level when they finished last.

In the Under 19s GF of 1964, Melbourne defeated Collingwood just as the senior Demons would do to the Magpies in the League GF later in the afternoon. However, this was Melbourne's first appearance in an Under 19 GF since back-to-back appearances in 1952 and 1953, both against Essendon with the Bombers winning in 1952 and the Demons successful in 1953. These GF appearances by the Demons show that they were developing their team that would dominate senior football in the next decade. But after the 1960s, success for Melbourne in the Under 19s or Reserves did not lead to improved performances for the struggling senior team.

One final odd thing about this was the score of the 1953 Under 19s Grand Final where Melbourne's 3.6-24 was enough to beat Essendon who could manage just 1.5-11. Yet the 1953 Grand Final from old photos and footage was played on a fine and sunny day, with the Magpies beating the Cats 11.11-77 to 8.17-65, and the Reserves saw a relatively high-scoring match with Carlton defeating Essendon 15.7-97 to 11.7-73. So what happened in the Under 19s that made their GF look like it was played in inclement weather? The only thing I could think of was that maybe a draw pushed the Under 19s finals schedule out of alignment and it was played a week later when the weather had turned wet and windy, but this is only speculation and I don't know for sure.

 

[35Daicos]

One final odd thing about this was the score of the 1953 Under 19s Grand Final where Melbourne's 3.6-24 was enough to beat Essendon who could manage just 1.5-11. Yet the 1953 Grand Final from old photos and footage was played on a fine and sunny day, with the Magpies beating the Cats 11.11-77 to 8.17-65, and the Reserves saw a relatively high-scoring match with Carlton defeating Essendon 15.7-97 to 11.7-73. So what happened in the Under 19s that made their GF look like it was played in inclement weather? The only thing I could think of was that maybe a draw pushed the Under 19s finals schedule out of alignment and it was played a week later when the weather had turned wet and windy, but this is only speculation and I don't know for sure.

The 1953 U19 Grand Final was played (at Lake Oval) on 5 September (from the Football Record):

That was 1st Semi-Final day for the seniors and reserves (who played at the MCG). Scores for those games were:
Seconds:-
Carlton 11.13 (79)
North Melbourne 7.11 (53)

Seniors:-
Footscray 6.13 (49)
Essendon 5.11 (41)

The Argus match report for the main game commented on the very strong wind:

And this for the earlier game:

 

[Wallaby]

As a Richmond fan - I have a morbid fascination with finishing juuust out of the finals - ie 'Ninthmond'.

My question is - what is the best record a team has had and still missed out on the finals? I suspect in the days of the Final 4, it may have been Richmond in 1966 - when they won 13, lost4 and drew 1 out of 18.

Also, if possible - what is the best record for a team missing out on the Final 8 (I have a slightly sinking feeling I may already know the answer to this one as well!).

 

[ioppolo]

As a Richmond fan - I have a morbid fascination with finishing juuust out of the finals - ie 'Ninthmond'.

My question is - what is the best record a team has had and still missed out on the finals? I suspect in the days of the Final 4, it may have been Richmond in 1966 - when they won 13, lost4 and drew 1 out of 18.

Also, if possible - what is the best record for a team missing out on the Final 8 (I have a slightly sinking feeling I may already know the answer to this one as well!).

12-10 would surely be the best, I don't remember anyone going 13-9 and missing. Maybe someone went 12-9-1 one season?

 

[sabso]

12-10 would surely be the best, I don't remember anyone going 13-9 and missing. Maybe someone went 12-9-1 one season?

I’ve probably misread the question, but Collingwood finished ninth with 12-9-2 this year…

We’re surely discounting essendon being banned from finals after going 14-8 in 2013

 

[worbod]

As a Richmond fan - I have a morbid fascination with finishing juuust out of the finals - ie 'Ninthmond'.

My question is - what is the best record a team has had and still missed out on the finals? I suspect in the days of the Final 4, it may have been Richmond in 1966 - when they won 13, lost4 and drew 1 out of 18.

Also, if possible - what is the best record for a team missing out on the Final 8 (I have a slightly sinking feeling I may already know the answer to this one as well!).

I think Geelong of 1932 is the only instance of the team with the best percentage missing the finals. The Cats finished in fifth position with a percentage of 139.7, the next best being 139.2 by Richmond in second place. Geelong won 11 games and had a draw from 18 home and away games that season.

 

[emuboy]

The 1953 U19 Grand Final was played (at Lake Oval) on 5 September (from the Football Record):
View attachment 2192936
That was 1st Semi-Final day for the seniors and reserves (who played at the MCG). Scores for those games were:
Seconds:-
Carlton 11.13 (79)
North Melbourne 7.11 (53)

Seniors:-
Footscray 6.13 (49)
Essendon 5.11 (41)

The Argus match report for the main game commented on the very strong wind:
View attachment 2192944
And this for the earlier game:
View attachment 2192946

Thanks 35Daicos, I didn't realize the Under 19s finals were played weeks before the League and Reserves Grand Finals back in the early 1950s. If it had been played on the fine and sunny day of the 1953 Grand Final, the only possible explanation would be Ross Lyon having the ability to travel through time and coaching either the Bombers or Demons Under 19's team that day.

Still, 3.6-24 to 1.5-11 is seriously strange even back in those days. Was it definitely played at the Lake Oval, and not actually in the adjacent Albert Park Lake?

 

[emuboy]

12-10 would surely be the best, I don't remember anyone going 13-9 and missing. Maybe someone went 12-9-1 one season?

Collingwood went 12-9-1 in 1991 and missed the finals thanks to a bizarre series of results late in the season, but there was a Final 6 back then rather than a Final 8.

 

[emuboy]

I think Geelong of 1932 is the only instance of the team with the best percentage missing the finals. The Cats finished in fifth position with a percentage of 139.7, the next best being 139.2 by Richmond in second place. Geelong won 11 games and had a draw from 18 home and away games that season.

Geelong have some odd anomalies like this, where their 1932 team missed the finals with the highest percentage. The Cats also went from 7 consecutive years as a premiership contender (1950-1956) only to fall to last in 1957, but with 5-12-1 and a percentage of around 95, the team in the Top 4 for most of the first 6 weeks of the season and not hitting last place until the end of the final round. There's also 1980, where the minor premiership winning Cats had a lower points for than bottom placed Fitzroy, and 1993 where Geelong - inconsistent all year - got on a roll in the last 6 weeks of the season, kicking huge scores and winning matches by big margins, looking ominous. But despite 1993 being abnormally even, the results did not go the Cats' way and they narrowly missed the finals.