Straight Sets

[skipjack]

Without looking into it, are these teams going out in straight sets have an easier draw due to being outside the 8 the year before? Thus their final ladder position (top4) being better than what they actually are. For example: Hawks this year had an easier draw after missing finals in 2017 and they are not top 4 quality side.

This plus the competition being quite even - throw a blanket over 2nd-8th. The current comp has a lot more "on their day" about it. Any side is beatable if it doesn't play at 100% by most other sides. Richmond currently the exception...

 

[kirky]

Without looking into it, are these teams going out in straight sets have an easier draw due to being outside the 8 the year before? Thus their final ladder position (top4) being better than what they actually are. For example: Hawks this year had an easier draw after missing finals in 2017 and they are not top 4 quality side.

Possibly which is why Adelaide will in all likelihood rebound next year given its horror year, both on and off the field. It played 11 games against top 8 sides (won 4 lost 7) and yet it still ended with a 12-10 win/loss record.

 

[Scotland]

Going out in straight sets is still an embarrassment even if the competition is more even. Every QF loser gets a home final the following week and there's an expectation that a 15/16+ win side will beat a team that missed the top 4. This year it would be a bigger shock if Richmond or WC did it compared to Hawthorn and Collingwood, though. Richmond are the clear #1 side and we have two home finals in Perth so not many people would have put their money on either side going out without taking it to a third.

We did it in 2007, Geelong and Freo in 2014, Sydney in 2015, Hawthorn in 2016. Those teams all looked pretty battle weary at the time of those finals. WC minus Judd, Cousins, Kerr and Sydney minus Franklin, Reid, Parker, Jack etc. isn't the same proposition as those sides at full strength in those years. Plus the make-up of the top 8 varies from year to year. This year 2nd to 8th is pretty even, in 2014 Port were IMO part of a clear top 5 teams so seeing them win through to a prelim didn't surprise me. 2011 was nuts. Two top teams, Hawthorn in 3rd with 18 wins and us in 4th with 17. Carlton ran us close in the semi but the gap from the top 2 to 5th to 8th was huge.

 

[SA HAWK]

Won't surprise me if Hawthorn go out in straight sets i think we overachieved making the top 4.

I think the club will be happy with the season overall regardless.

 

[SA HAWK]

Correct

Yet you argue somehow finals losses are positives for Hawthorn

Given you went out straight sets 2 years back cant see how a repeat of that is any better than bowing out last week

The finals experience is a positive and finding out exactly where our list is at.

Can't really compare this years team to the side from 2 years ago we still had Hodge, rioli, mitchell, lewis, gibson, hill & birchall back then.

 

[vozzon]

Prior to the ones mentioned by the OP, west coast imploded in 07, including losing in over time in one, and Port had a rocky finals record early on.

No really obvious link for those who have suffered it since, will potentially suffer it this weekend, so presumably we'll all blame the fixture?

Was at the Port/West Coast game, Judd playing in the goal square with a groin injury and Cousins doing his hammy helped us out big time.

 

[Coaster2012]

I actually think the Pies can win the whole thing.. getting that close to the Eagles over there is bloody hard. If they get through GWS this week, they're every chance against us and then can beat the Eagles here. I really think a Pies vs Tigers prelim will be a toss up.. massive game so hope I can get tickets!!!

Its just the way they play.. it works in finals.. very much like us (they copied it) but probably a stronger midfield when you factor Grundy.

Not a toss up at all. Tigers would destroy the Pies at the G. Hell, we have been terrible at the G and beat them easily. Pies have beaten 1 top 8 side all year. And now they will go into the GF with 1 week less break and its a toss up? Come on mate, it's okay to admit it, you would smash them.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Not a toss up at all. Tigers would destroy the Pies at the G. Hell, we have been terrible at the G and beat them easily. Pies have beaten 1 top 8 side all year. And now they will go into the GF with 1 week less break and its a toss up? Come on mate, it's okay to admit it, you would smash them.

How many games has West Coast played at the MCG this year?

Is it 2 from 2?

 

[Coaster2012]

How many games has West Coast played at the MCG this year?

Is it 2 from 2?

2 from 2.

Pies and Blues. Hawks at Etihad, but doesn't count.

 

[Gavin Excell]

2 from 2.

Pies and Blues. Hawks at Etihad, but doesn't count.

Too early to call whether the Optus oval dimensions making Eagles more competitive at the G?

 

[Coaster2012]

Too early to call whether the Optus oval dimensions making Eagles more competitive at the G?

Hard to say. Early signs say yes, but too small of a sample size to say for sure.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Too early to call whether the Optus oval dimensions making Eagles more competitive at the G?

Grand final will be the evidence

 

[the harry]

Was at the Port/West Coast game, Judd playing in the goal square with a groin injury and Cousins doing his hammy helped us out big time.

Yeah......

 

[Andy_Mac]

It wouldn’t surprise me if both Pies and Hawks did this year

Agreed.

And in reality I think Richmond, West Coast, GWS and Melb. are the 4 best sides in it.

 

[Fadge]

Agreed.

And in reality I think Richmond, West Coast, GWS and Melb. are the 4 best sides in it.

You didn't see the Queen's Birthday game?!?

 

[travgohawks23]

I've been really impressed with the Pies this season, super resilient. Don't deserve to bow out in straight sets, I'm backing them to win at home on the mighty G.

I dont know why Collingwood are getting a lot of praise this year. They had a very easy draw, beat the teams they should have and struggled against top 8 sides. They have the worst stats of all clubs in the top 8 against top 8 sides:
Richmond - Won 7 Lost 2
West Coast - Won 6 Lost 3
Collingwood - Won 1 Lost 7
Hawthorn - Won 5 Lost 4
Melbourne - Won 2 Lost 6
Sydney - Won 8 Lost 3
GWS - Won 3 Lost 6
Geelong - Won 5 Lost 7

I think it shows that Sydney and Geelong have done a great job this year to make the 8 at all, having to play 11 and 12 games against top 8 sides. That has got to be tiring and possibly affect finals performances.
I expect Hawthorn to win this week as they have a good record against Melbourne and will want to make up for a bad show against Richmond. But its a 60/40 match I think

 

[Tiger08]

Not a toss up at all. Tigers would destroy the Pies at the G. Hell, we have been terrible at the G and beat them easily. Pies have beaten 1 top 8 side all year. And now they will go into the GF with 1 week less break and its a toss up? Come on mate, it's okay to admit it, you would smash them.

I really don't think so. They had a shocker against you at the MCG after the first 10 minutes but that was an off day IMO. They play contested finals style footy and their lack of fit tall backs doesn't matter against us. Their midfield is probably as good as ours and the backs match up ok. The style they play just stacks up against how we play.

We'd probbaly be favourites against anyone at the G but I'd be less confident against them than anyone else. Not taking anything away from the eagles who are a good team.. its just the way the Pies play that bothers me

 

[Andy_Mac]

You didn't see the Queen's Birthday game?!?

As in the only time you beat a top 8 side?

 

[5ammy]

I dont know why Collingwood are getting a lot of praise this year. They had a very easy draw, beat the teams they should have and struggled against top 8 sides. They have the worst stats of all clubs in the top 8 against top 8 sides:
Richmond - Won 7 Lost 2
West Coast - Won 6 Lost 3
Collingwood - Won 1 Lost 7
Hawthorn - Won 5 Lost 4
Melbourne - Won 2 Lost 6
Sydney - Won 8 Lost 3
GWS - Won 3 Lost 6
Geelong - Won 5 Lost 7

I think it shows that Sydney and Geelong have done a great job this year to make the 8 at all, having to play 11 and 12 games against top 8 sides. That has got to be tiring and possibly affect finals performances.
I expect Hawthorn to win this week as they have a good record against Melbourne and will want to make up for a bad show against Richmond. But its a 60/40 match I think

I just admire their resilience, were literally missing half their best 22 at times this season yet still managed to finish Top 4. Took it right up to the 2nd best team in the comp last week in the toughest road trip in the game, think they’ll get over the line this weekend. Let’s hope the Hawks do too!

 

[gopies1981]

As in the only time you beat a top 8 side?

Yeah but it was worth it!!! You would not want to play Collingwood again this year would you???

Lucky you probably will not!!!

Could be another 7 goal thumping

 

[Scotland]

Too early to call whether the Optus oval dimensions making Eagles more competitive at the G?

Sample size too small, but we lost 3 times at Optus Stadium during the year so clearly our home ground advantage isn't as strong as many suggest. I don't think the MCG holds any fears for us but the reality is if we win our prelim we'll probably be playing Richmond in the GF, a team who has won 20+ games in a row at the venue and also happens to be very good in general. If we don't progress past the prelim then the team that takes our place will be an MCG tenant that will probably also lose such is the make up of the season.

If we make and win the GF it will be because we were the best team on the day. If we make the GF and lose it will be because we had two home finals in Perth and can't win at the MCG. Footy reporting is predictable.

 

[Scotland]

Was at the Port/West Coast game, Judd playing in the goal square with a groin injury and Cousins doing his hammy helped us out big time.

And Kerr watching on.

I watched on TV. Was convinced if we could just get over the line the week off would do wonders for us. I'd have backed us in the prelim with Judd off two weeks rest and Kerr returning. Cousins may even have made it back for the GF. As it turned out we played the next week minus all 3 and couldn't have tried any harder but just didn't have the quality to get it done. Then fell down a well the next year.

 

[Fadge]

As in the only time you beat a top 8 side?

Pies and Hawks both finish above Melbourne and both take them to the cleaners during the season, yet neither are one of the best four teams in it and Melbourne are?

Sounds as though you are just another simpleton seduced by teams' winning form against inferior opposition as opposed to losing form against superior opposition in week one of the finals.

 

[threesixpio]

Yeah im not convinced losing twice is any better to be honest

Depends where your team is at. If it is their last chance for years it is not good. If its about giving younger players a go it probably is

 

[projectv]

Neither of them deserved to be top 4. So I doubt they'd be too disappointed if they went out in straight sets.