Sydney's record in grand finals needs scrutinising

[kickazz]

I think this over analyzing it. The simple reality is that Sydney hadn't recaptured their form for the first 13 rounds. They hadn't really played well for 3 months. I posted earlier in this thread that on Grand Final day the winning team is normally the one who is in better form over the last 2 months. Brisbane had been in far better form in the recent 8-10 weeks than Sydney.

Look at Geelong 2022 as an example. They had a reputation over a 10-year period from 2012-2021 as being finals chokers. They had a terrible record in finals, an 0-5 record in Preliminary Finals (including some beltings). In 2022 however none of that mattered because they entered the finals with 15 straight wins. Champion Data indicated that their profile was so strong that it was almost impossible for them to not win the premiership. They of course won easily, as they did the week before versus Brisbane, proving that 2022 wasn't just a "Swans" thing. Brisbane also got belted. Why does no one criticize Brisbane in 2022 who lost just as heavily as Sydney?

Consider that Sydney was 13-1 after round 15 with a percentage of 149% this year.

Sydney's last 11 matches entering the Grand Final yielded only a 6-5 record with a percentage of 99.5%

Brisbane's last 19 matches yielded a 15-3-1 record with a percentage of 134%

So, that's really what the Grand Final was: A team that had a percentage of less than 100% (going by recent form) versus the hottest team in the competition. It's probably not a surprise, in retrospect that Brisbane won easily. Nor was a surprise in 2022 if you look at the form of Geelong. Witha percentage of 99%, Sydney were essentially playing at 8th-9th on the ladder level for 3 months.

The reality is that Sydney did not enter the 2024 decided in good form and had not played consistently well for a long, long time. If they enter the Grand Final with the amazing recent form of Brisbane in 2024 or Geelong in 2022, there is every historical precedent to say they would be competitive. They really just need to ensure they are playing the best football of the year at the end rather than the start.

Yeah good analysis.

Swans were dodgy in the last couple of months, it was more class than form that kept them chugging along

 

[PhatBoy]

Another reason a lot of Pies fans took pleasure in yesterday. Papley rubbed it in hard after winning the ‘22 prelim. Would gladly never see him win one.

I have no beef with any swans player at all in general they are professionals who know - for the most part anyway - how to just get the job done year after year.

But he’s an idiot. He HAS had some good finals moments so it’s not like he can’t deliver altogether but they’ve almost invariably been in games where his team has been dominant for the most part (he’s had a couple of 2-3 goal games in close finals) and now has 2 goals from 3 grand finals. Might want to adjust his focus a little bit from the opposition to himself.

 

[mike ross]

Another reason a lot of Pies fans took pleasure in yesterday. Papley rubbed it in hard after winning the ‘22 prelim. Would gladly never see him win one.

I'd say most of the league is wrapt that Papley was in tears again yesterday.

Not just Pies fans.

And on that subject, glad that Rampe failed again. The climb a goal post defender.

 

[Sully111]

Horse was completely outcoached yesterday.

 

[Daka]

Yeah good analysis.

Swans were dodgy in the last couple of months, it was more class than form that gets them chugging along

It's clear they peaked too early, but it looked they found some form late in the year & played pretty good in the previous finals, I rate GWS gamestyle.

Even if they didn't get fully back to their earlier season form, their previous finals performances were still a lot better than what they showed in yesterday's Grand Final. that was just embarrassing and it's hard to explain without deep diving into a lot of factors.

 

[Dan26]

Yeah good analysis.

Swans were dodgy in the last couple of months, it was more class than form that gets them chugging along

Exactly. All this stuff about choking is over-analyzing it. You would know yourself as a Geelong fan that these accusations mean nothing once it all comes together like it did for you in 2022. Sydney (like Geelong in 2022, Melbourne in 2021 etc) just need to be playing their best football at the end of the year rather than the start

If you enter the GF with a percentage of 99% from your last 11 matches you are going to get belted every time. It's got nothing to do with choking - they just weren't a very good football team for 3 months.

With Brisbane playing a team who had a percentage of 99% over 3 months of football, it's a bit like playing a team who is 9th-10th on the ladder. That's really the kind of 3-month form Brisbane was playing against.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I think this over analyzing it. The simple reality is that Sydney hadn't recaptured their form for the first 13 rounds. They hadn't really played well for 3 months. I posted earlier in this thread that on Grand Final day the winning team is normally the one who is in better form over the last 2 months. Brisbane had been in far better form in the recent 8-10 weeks than Sydney.

Look at Geelong 2022 as an example. They had a reputation over a 10-year period from 2012-2021 as being finals chokers. They had a terrible record in finals, an 0-5 record in Preliminary Finals (including some beltings). In 2022 however none of that mattered because they entered the finals with 15 straight wins. Champion Data indicated that their profile was so strong that it was almost impossible for them to not win the premiership. They of course won easily, as they did the week before versus Brisbane, proving that 2022 wasn't just a "Swans" thing. Brisbane also got belted. Why does no one criticize Brisbane in 2022 who lost just as heavily as Sydney?

Consider that Sydney was 13-1 after round 15 with a percentage of 149% this year.

Sydney's last 11 matches entering the Grand Final yielded only a 6-5 record with a percentage of 99.5%

Brisbane's last 19 matches yielded a 15-3-1 record with a percentage of 134%

So, that's really what the Grand Final was: A team that had a percentage of less than 100% (going by recent form) versus the hottest team in the competition. It's probably not a surprise, in retrospect that Brisbane won easily. Nor was a surprise in 2022 if you look at the form of Geelong. Witha percentage of 99%, Sydney were essentially playing at 8th-9th on the ladder level for 3 months.

The reality is that Sydney did not enter the 2024 decider in good form and had not played consistently well for a long, long time. If they enter the Grand Final with the amazing recent form of Brisbane in 2024 or Geelong in 2022, there is every historical precedent to say they would be competitive. They really just need to ensure they are playing the best football of the year at the end rather than the start.

And yet when Sydney played Lions on their own turf late in the year they lost a close encounter by 2 points I recall prior to their fatigue induced drop in form.

Sydney beat GWS in finals and convincingly beat PA too also in finals. Lions beat GWS by same margin in finals. Your explanation of poor form doesn't reconcile to a 60 point drubbing. Each to their own but I'll stick with my thinking evidence of which is similar outcome in 2022 where we copped a thrashing by 80.

I think the problem lies in poor psychology management.

 

[Lunchtime]

It's pretty simple to see what happened to them. When they won those earlier grand finals they had the likes of Barry Hall, Mickey O, Adam Goodes. They had capable forwards.

Fast Forward a few years and they gave Buddy that ridiculously long contract. Yes Buddy gets bums on seats, but was the deal worth it in the end? Hindsight says no, as he brought them no success. They played Buddy as their number 1 forward. But as we saw at the Hawks he was most dangerous running down wings and playing a bit further down the ground. Sydney didn't have the forwards Hawthorn had available to them with S Reid being the only guy. So due to that foward line disfunction they were not successful with a flag in the Buddy era. So after Buddy leaves, it then does the opposite.. and leaves a hole with NO big forward at all. Relying on Amartey and McDonald insn't enough to win a flag.

Their best move would be to trade one of these midfielders as they do have excess.. probably be Warner over to a WA team, and use that trade to get a big forward from somewhere. Then they will win a flag. Amartey will go alright as the 2nd best forward, but not the guy taking the number 1 defender.

Not to mention Franklin's record in the biggest game of the year (Grand Final) wasn't very good:

Lance Franklin
2008: 2.1 (vs Geelong)
2012: 3.4 (vs Sydney)
2013: 1.1 (vs Fremantle)
2014: 4.2 (vs Hawthorn)
2016: 1.1 (vs Western Bulldogs)
2022: 0.1 (vs Geelong)
Total Goals: 11
Total Behinds: 10
Grand Finals: 6
Goal Average Per Game: 1.83

He should of got scrutinised more during his career for his record in Grand Finals.

 

[PhatBoy]

Not to mention Franklin's record in the biggest game of the year (Grand Final) wasn't very good:

Lance Franklin
2008: 2.1 (vs Geelong)
2012: 3.4 (vs Sydney)
2013: 1.1 (vs Fremantle)
2014: 4.2 (vs Hawthorn)
2016: 1.1 (vs Western Bulldogs)
2022: 0.1 (vs Geelong)
Total Goals: 11
Total Behinds: 10
Grand Finals: 6
Goal Average Per Game: 1.83

He should of got scrutinised more during his career for his record in Grand Finals.

Why? He kicked a normal amount in a winning grand final where basically Geelong’s entire defensive focus was on him, kicked one in another winning grand final against a defensive-oriented side, kicked a good amount in two losing ones, had a bad game against the Dogs, and was unsighted at 33 or 34 years of age in a team where his side were absolutely thrashed.

Are people going to suddenly scroll through his thousand goals in 50 years time and go ‘hang on hang on, I found something. Cancel this year’s grand final. Lance Franklin DIDNT ever kick double figures in a winning - or losing - grand final.’

 

[Maddo11]

I'd say most of the league is wrapt that Papley was in tears again yesterday.

Not just Pies fans.

And on that subject, glad that Rampe failed again. The climb a goal post defender.

View attachment 2125525

Enjoy the schadenfreude mate, lord knows I've gotten enough enjoyment out of the 7400 days or whatever it's up to now, but imagine firing shots when the best thing about your own club is the fan that makes meme videos about how pathetic they are.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Yes Horse has blame because his failure to manage psychology of the team.. But WE must understand the dynamics of what is actually happening. Yes choking....a team proven to be better than all in H &A can't perform to that standard in a GF. Why? It's because they want it too much and impairs their functioning through stress

It's called loss aversion or choking as we all recognise. But what is its origin? Its origin is in an unacceptable build up of stress to the point that when the game starts you can't function normally. Some have better coping mechanisms than others usually the players who also come into the AFL top grade and seamlessly cope with that transition too. Eg Matt Roberts. Others who come in but go out oscillating before finding their place don't eg Nick Blakey early career. To some they shrink away seeking to be inconspicuous in the game and if enough are rabbits in a headlights the team starts to suffer badly. There are some preparatory choices to make self hypnosis to talk down the stress load. Mindfulness techniques..Ultimately it's about forcibly engaging the game to release the stress load and in its place adrenaline which eradicates the stress load. Tackle ferociously from the start.. Chase ferociously from the start. Get a disposal early. Encourage. Motivate..Anything which pushes you past hiding in the game itself..In short force yourself to do the things that got you there rather than hide in plain sight. if you don't the fact your aren't getting the disposals simply adds to the stress load because you are aware it's unraveling and urgently need to react.

Horse is a good man manager but hopelessly incompetent and unfamiliar with high level fatigue management AND in this case the psychology of loss aversion and its remedies.

I feel for the team..I'm a little less sympathetic with the supporters who currently want to torch them as they opine they chose to underperform. They didn't make this choice. They are a victim of loss aversion.. They aren't useless either because they failed to cope. Better psychology plans and active steps to counter loss aversion will yield better outcomes. There are about 7-8 steps you can take. Wont bore people but is manageable

That's an interesting read
As you say, the players didn't choose not to have a go. They would have seized up. A small mistake makes you go into your shell and then it gets compounded by electing not to do something proactive as the fear of mucking up again becomes key.

The weird thing is they got a good start - 2 of the first goals and I thought that would have helped settle nerves

 

[Seedsfan]

That's an interesting read
As you say, the players didn't choose not to have a go. They would have seized up. A small mistake makes you go into your shell and then it gets compounded by electing not to do something proactive as the fear of mucking up again becomes key.

The weird thing is they got a good start - 2 of the first goals and I thought that would have helped settle nerves

There is also a flip side to it, Sydney’s poor record would fill Brisbane with confidence

 

[Toump Ass]

Must have been a devastating feeling for players like Rampe in that second qtr knowing the game was lost and thinking here we go again.

**** Rampe. He was part of the problem. He had some embarrassing 1on1 contests.

The poor tackling, second to the ball, sook at the umpires shit-the-pants is on all of those useless campaigners.

 

[Stottzy]

Not to mention Franklin's record in the biggest game of the year (Grand Final) wasn't very good:

Lance Franklin
2008: 2.1 (vs Geelong)
2012: 3.4 (vs Sydney)
2013: 1.1 (vs Fremantle)
2014: 4.2 (vs Hawthorn)
2016: 1.1 (vs Western Bulldogs)
2022: 0.1 (vs Geelong)
Total Goals: 11
Total Behinds: 10
Grand Finals: 6
Goal Average Per Game: 1.83

He should of got scrutinised more during his career for his record in Grand Finals.

Reckon you're being harsh on 12. Was in our best that game. I thought he was good in 14 too, especially when the rest of his team put out a performance identical to yesterday. 08 he basically got us to the GF, so excused there. 13, 16 and 22 were poor (22 however, the ball rarely went inside 50 for Sydney), but even Ablett snr wasn't that great in grand finals, other than 89. Not the only great player to play poor in grand finals.