Tas Tasmanian Election 2024 edit: the 2025 redux edition?

[BobbyMorri]

Very unlikely for O'Byrne to have another tilt - the ALP factions here remain the union movement. Josh Willie may be another name and he is heavily backed by the AEU.

I do believe White will throw her hat in the ring federally.

Yuck.

Don't like Willie at all.

his face was on the 4th at New Town Golf Club, and i never played that hole well.

 

[Father Jack]

The stadium doesn't need a roof, and if the AFL block the team on that basis then they'll be the laughing stock, not us.

 

[Hornberger]

Is a Labor - Green government looking increasing likely?

 

[sherb]

The stadium doesn't need a roof, and if the AFL block the team on that basis then they'll be the laughing stock, not us.

Too late.

Those who are trying to derail the stadium, and possibly the team as a result, have already made Tassie a laughing stock.

As a proud Tasmanian living afar, it's truly embarrassing to see. I'd really hoped that after all these years the state had made it into the 21st century.

 

[Financialpanther]

Is a Labor - Green government looking increasing likely?

Doubtful - ALP only has around 10-11, Greens look like 4-5. They will be two seats short.

 

[Financialpanther]

Tucker and Alexander - both gone.

 

[Jazny]

Tucker and Alexander gone

 

[Jazny]

Is a Labor - Green government looking increasing likely?

I don't think that will happen. Labor have ruled it out, and even though that might be a broken promise if they had an equal number of seats as Liberals, I think it wouldn't be worth Labor trying to form government from 10 or 11 seats and so low of a primary vote.

 

[Hornberger]

Labor have ruled it out

You do understand that is completely meaningless. If either party is capable of obtaining a workable majority they will form government, regardless of what might been said during the election campaign.

 

[Jazny]

You do understand that is completely meaningless. If either party is capable of obtaining a workable majority they will form government, regardless of what might been said during the election campaign.

Did you read past the comma?

 

[nut]

Have the libs lost Dunstan in SA by election?

 

[Father Jack]

Too late.

Those who are trying to derail the stadium, and possibly the team as a result, have already made Tassie a laughing stock.

As a proud Tasmanian living afar, it's truly embarrassing to see. I'd really hoped that after all these years the state had made it into the 21st century.

It's old fashioned thinking that spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a stadium for no reason is always a good idea and that you don't dare question it.

 

[Kingpin]

Tucker and Alexander - both gone.

Anyone happen to catch Tucker's two interviews earlier this evening on ABC and the other channel?
Talk about inept. How did that cretin even get a look in? He was HOPELESS.
Might as well have just said "no comment" to every question posed by the journos on the telly. Had no idea and no legible policies.
Good riddance.

 

[Donakebab]

What's with the guy in the wig holding the sign "I'm Eric's son"

 

[Hank Scorpion]

My read of the most likely outcome:

• 14 LIB
• 10 ALP
• 5 GRN
• 3 JLN
• Johnston in Clark
• O'Byrne in Lyons
• Garland in Braddon

Braddon's final seat I'm the most unsure of. Presuming there'll be leakage out of Rockliff's vote, and enough of the indy/minor party vote coalescing around each other - it's probably down to Green preferences whether the Libs or Garland takes it?

Spoiler: Breakdown

Bass: 3-2-1-JLN
Braddon: 3-2-0-JLN-??? (Garland?)
Clark: 2-2-2-Johnston
Franklin 3-2-1-O'Byrne
Lyons: 3-2-1-JLN

That's probably a more workable parliament for Labor than Lib, but so, so messy.

 

[The King!]

My read of the most likely outcome:

• 14 LIB
• 10 ALP
• 5 GRN
• 3 JLN
• Johnston in Clark
• O'Byrne in Lyons
• Garland in Braddon

Braddon's final seat I'm the most unsure of. Presuming there'll be leakage out of Rockliff's vote, and enough of the indy/minor party vote coalescing around each other - it's probably down to Green preferences whether the Libs or Garland takes it?

Spoiler: Breakdown

Bass: 3-2-1-JLN
Braddon: 3-2-0-JLN-??? (Garland?)
Clark: 2-2-2-Johnston
Franklin 3-2-1-O'Byrne
Lyons: 3-2-1-JLN

That's probably a more workable parliament for Labor than Lib, but so, so messy.

I think its more likely

16 lib
10 alp
5 grn
2 jln
johston
obryne

More workable for Lib, but yeah if yours happens then Rockliff may be stuffed

 

[BobbyMorri]

I think its more likely

16 lib
10 alp
5 grn
2 jln
johston
obryne

More workable for Lib, but yeah if yours happens then Rockliff may be stuffed

If it ends up like that, it is very workable and better than what it was before(cause Lara Alexander and John Tucker are idiots, who threatened no confidence)

If all you need is 2/4 votes from the JLN, O Byrne and Johnston, then that is achievable. You can ensure no one player gets too much by playing them off each other. And both DoB and Johnston, though more left-minded than "cowboy hat", will work with the government if they want something done. They won't threaten to take it down as they have a working, mature brain

Or you could get One of the Greens(or ALP) if all else fails

 

[NSWCROW]

Have the libs lost Dunstan in SA by election?

Labor ahead 53.8 / 46.2 with 48% counted

4.4% swing away from the libs

 

[nut]

Labor ahead 53.8 / 46.2 with 48% counted

4.4% swing away from the libs

So that’s a 10% swing including last election….

 

[Gough]

So that’s a 10% swing including last election….

Definition of leafy inner suburban seat too. Dutton's get the bogans out to vote plan better be rock solid or he's in deep shit.

 

[Festerz]

Not following Tasmanian politics closely but according to a few posts here wasn’t the ONLY reason Rockliff called an election was so that he could increase their vote and form a ‘stable majority’?

Initial results are showing a strong swing against the Liberal Party and can only form a minority government with others’ some of whom have strong objections to his policy agenda.

So Rockliff failed in the only goal set, yet claims ‘victory’

Have I got that right?

And more importantly is the Rocky Chocolate Factory theme park in doubt?

 

[Financialpanther]

Not following Tasmanian politics closely but according to a few posts here wasn’t the ONLY reason Rockliff called an election was so that he could increase their vote and form a ‘stable majority’?

Initial results are showing a strong swing against the Liberal Party and can only form a minority government with others’ some of whom have strong objections to his policy agenda.

So Rockliff failed in the only goal set, yet claims ‘victory’

Have I got that right?

And more importantly is the Rocky Chocolate Factory theme park in doubt?

Libs went early as their only possible way of denying the ALP a majority. If the afl team wasn’t a thing, that would have happened.

In terms of fountain, will be a rocky road to delivering that confectionery installation

 

[Festerz]

Have the libs lost Dunstan in SA by election?

Looks like it but counting still continues.

Will be the first time a sitting Labor Govt has won an SA by-election in 125 years if true.

SA Liberals falling apart under a weak conservative Christian leader and shifting further right to the point of irrelevance.

Strong rise in Greens first pref vote again.

 

[QuietB]

Not following Tasmanian politics closely but according to a few posts here wasn’t the ONLY reason Rockliff called an election was so that he could increase their vote and form a ‘stable majority’?

Initial results are showing a strong swing against the Liberal Party and can only form a minority government with others’ some of whom have strong objections to his policy agenda.

So Rockliff failed in the only goal set, yet claims ‘victory’

Have I got that right?

And more importantly is the Rocky Chocolate Factory theme park in doubt?

I don’t follow either but from the little I have read it seams his hand was forced because a few nuffies threatened supply. I think the true intent of the election was to weed them out.

 

[Festerz]

I don’t follow either but from the little I have read it seams his hand was forced because a few nuffies threatened supply. I think the true intent of the election was to weed them out.

So as Tasmania heads to another hung Parliament Tasmanians can look to yet another early election if the Premier doesn’t get his way?