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Tas Tasmanian Election 2024 edit: the 2025 redux edition?

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No confidence motion set to succeed.

Tasmanian political followers - what does this mean for Tasmania and the AFL team?
Nobody knows. The premier could resign and the same liberal government forms another minority government, or then Labor forms an even smaller minority if Liberals can't form government with cross bench support. If that happened, then Labor can just reintroduce existing legislation.

If there is a new election, then all the current legislation that's before parliament is scrapped and would need to be reintroduced. So it would mean months of delay while a new government is voted on, then the relevant legislation has to be reintroduced.

It's not over. It's just another weird and dangerous spanner thrown into it.
 
Surely according to convention any no confidence motion that succeeds must force the Premier to resign?

Labor must be emboldened by the Federal election results but this could backfire spectacularly if the sentiment is that Tasmanians just want a stable government and that Labor/Greens represent chaos, irrespective of disagreement over a stadium.
 

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Convention would say Rockliff goes-

Winter said he supports the budget and stadium going they just want Rockliff out, I suspect Jeremy is too ego driven and would dissolve parliament

Egos are going to drive them all towards the nuclear option that none of them actually want, cos it doesn't doesn't benefit anyone other than the Greens and Lambie. I don't think it even really benefits independents, just minor parties with some name cache.
 
Egos are going to drive them all towards the nuclear option that none of them actually want, cos it doesn't doesn't benefit anyone other than the Greens and Lambie. I don't think it even really benefits independents, just minor parties with some name cache.


agree , Winter can't form government and support the stadium as the Greens don't support it.

No one appears willing to take over from the premier in the Libs, Ferguson would have presumably but he would face no confidence anyway so can't.

The independents who don't support it probably lose their seat and the ones who did apart from Johnston might.

Greens won't ever get in power may be the fall guys if the is goes ahead and they wear the blame , depends.

Election wastes money and probably gives us another minority mess.

Meanwhile budget on hold, stadium ****ed and the team and the state suffers.

If Rockliff did go to the back bench we probably get Abetz 🤨🤨
 
lets not forget andrew wilkies role in all this .... staunchly opposed to the stadium (and the afl)

if he pursues efforts for a rectangular stadium (an interest he has flagged in the past) then he should be rightly condemned as both hypocrite and grubby campaigner of the highest order
 
Didn’t Labor oppose the stadium before the election?

From my readings, it seems Labor support a stadium, but not the stadium proposed at Macquarie Point.

No real winners in this kerfuffle and one of the biggest losers is the Tasmanian AFL team.
 

Pretty atrocious when your budget relies on optimistic forecasts as the way to reduce deficits. The usual practice with government budgets is to have pessimistic forecasts so that you reduce the likelihood of blowouts. In other words, under-promise and over-deliver. Tasmania seems to be doing the opposite.

Tasmania's debt is spiralling, Saul Eslake has projected it to more than double by 2035. So they'll end up cutting spending on services and infrastructure and/or privatising government assets to keep the debt down. And in that context, even with a 40% federal government subsidy, spending lots of public money on a stadium is a PR disaster.

Tasmania doesn't actually have a spending problem though, it has a revenue problem. The ABC says they spend $880 less per person on state government services than the national average. But 40% of their revenue comes from their share of national GST, compared to a national average of 23.5%. And the deal carved out for Western Australia on GST revenue limits how much more Tasmania can get.

So what they need is revenue from other sources. But they don't have Sydney or Melbourne's globally relevant economies, nor Queensland or Western Australia's mineral wealth. So what's there for them to tax? As Eslake said in his report, "Tasmania's finances would be in a stronger and more resilient position if Tasmania's economic performance were not so far behind that of the other states and territories".

Of course no stadium means no team, thanks to Gutwein making the AFL a silly offer, but a stadium won't fix any of Tasmania's economic issues. The tax revenue they reap is not going to suddenly surge because they have an AFL team. At best it'll be a small positive to government finances years after the big money has been spent on the initial setup.

I feel like the one thing that Tasmania can do to fix their economy is to create what the other states lack: lots of affordable housing. That's easier said than done, but at least young people who work from home might consider moving there to become homeowners, paying stamp duty and other taxes. I can't really see any other high-value industries that Tasmania will be able to outcompete the other states in.
 
lets not forget andrew wilkies role in all this .... staunchly opposed to the stadium (and the afl)

if he pursues efforts for a rectangular stadium (an interest he has flagged in the past) then he should be rightly condemned as both hypocrite and grubby campaigner of the highest order

He literally has no role in the Tasmanian Parliament.

What a strange attempt at a snipe.
 

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He literally has no role in the Tasmanian Parliament.

What a strange attempt at a snipe.
jackie lambie doesnt either ...... but her efforts working behind the scenes riling people up are well known - are you disputing her involvement in this anti-stadium push?

yours is a silly - and ignorant - comment
 
jackie lambie doesnt either ...... but her efforts working behind the scenes riling people up are well known - are you disputing her involvement in this anti-stadium push?

yours is a silly - and ignorant - comment
Politicians are allowed to organise the community for stances and causes they believe in. You may not like what they're doing, but they're not playing any direct part in what is a state parliament vote.
 
It shits me that the AFL is effectively holding Tassie to ransom over the stadium. It's obviously not about footy because if it was there would have been a team from the land of Hudson, Baldock and Richardson long before GWS and GC, they just want a shiny new thing to present their product.
 
agree , Winter can't form government and support the stadium as the Greens don't support it.
This is irrelevant though, because Tas Labor hate the Greens so much they'd rather sit out of government than even try to make a deal with them. That's pretty much what happened after the last election. I don't think relations between them have improved since then.
 

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Politicians are allowed to organise the community for stances and causes they believe in. You may not like what they're doing, but they're not playing any direct part in what is a state parliament vote.
not disputing that .... or a politicians right to mobilise sentiment

but this parliamentary manoeuvre hasnt happened in a vacuum - or in isolation of public sentiment ..... which is the point im making

wilkie has actively campaigned against the stadium for a long time ..... he is as much responsible for the parliamentary hand wringers who have pushed this no-confidence motion as the hand wringers themselves
 
not disputing that .... or a politicians right to mobilise sentiment

but this parliamentary manoeuvre hasnt happened in a vacuum - or in isolation of public sentiment ..... which is the point im making

wilkie has actively campaigned against the stadium for a long time ..... he is as much responsible for the parliamentary hand wringers who have pushed this no-confidence motion as the hand wringers themselves
Are you sure this parliamentary manoeuvre actually has anything at all to do with the stadium? Winter has said multiple times that he supports the team and the stadium. I suspect this is actually to do with last week's budget that has had a pretty negative reception.
 
It shits me that the AFL is effectively holding Tassie to ransom over the stadium. It's obviously not about footy because if it was there would have been a team from the land of Hudson, Baldock and Richardson long before GWS and GC, they just want a shiny new thing to present their product.
But they are not. We made the business case, we said we needed a new stadium

IF we already had a team, this discussion would still be happening, as NINJA Stadium is not fit for purpose.

Anyway, local pollie crap but

Dean Winter is a damn idiot. All he had to do was wait a year, maybe 2 . To do this now, 1 year after our last election, and 1 month after the federal one, knowing there is a good chance we could go to the Polls for the 3rd time in 5 years. He has done this because he saw what happened federally.

I do not normally hate on pollies, but these ones can go in the bin and never return. Never have I felt so disgusted to be forced to vote for one of them, if it comes down to that. We voted a year ago, stop your god damn antics and do your god damn job.
 
Are you sure this parliamentary manoeuvre actually has anything at all to do with the stadium? Winter has said multiple times that he supports the team and the stadium. I suspect this is actually to do with last week's budget that has had a pretty negative reception.
100% .... and efforts to amend the no-confidence motion by greens would support this (along with contributions from independents who spoke on the issue in todays parliamentary session)

sure, the no confidence motion didnt include the stadium as a debating point (and the above motion to amend it was defeated with labor support) ..... but it is an issue front and centre in all this silliness
 
This is irrelevant though, because Tas Labor hate the Greens so much they'd rather sit out of government than even try to make a deal with them. That's pretty much what happened after the last election. I don't think relations between them have improved since then.

Yep going to election unless another lib takes the job , and probably get the same mess back
 
100% ....
Based on what?

and efforts to amend the no-confidence motion by greens would support this (along with contributions from independents who spoke on the issue in todays parliamentary session)
And what guarantee is there that Labor and the independents vote to add the amendment?

sure, the no confidence motion didnt include the stadium as a debating point (and the above motion to amend it was defeated with labor support) ..... but it is an issue front and centre in all this silliness
Of course it's an issue, I just think people are overreacting. The risk is a delay to the bill, not that it won't pass.
 

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Tas Tasmanian Election 2024 edit: the 2025 redux edition?


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