Teams Average - by draft selections

[lamaros]

STKFC:

Goddard – 1

Roo – 1

Ball – 2

Kosi – 2

Hayes - 11

Dal – 13

McQualter – 17

Gram - 23

Blake – 24

It does, I think, give an insight into the various lists, their drafting strategies and de-bunk certain myths people seem to want to cling onto, year after year.

Not really. You have 9 top 25 picks in that team. 6 top 15, and 4 top 3.

Compare that to Carlton, another team that people say have lots of top picks:

9 top 25, 7 top 15, 4 top 3.

Or Hawthorn:

11 top 25, 9 top 15, 3 top 3.

Compare these teams to Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide...

Saints, Carlton, Hawks each have more top 3 draft picks than these other teams combined.

You still have far more top draft picks that most other teams in the league. Having one or two picks 70+ doesn't change this fact.

Oh, and try taking all those top 15 picks out of the teams mentioned and see how big a difference it makes. Then take the top 15 picks out of other teams in the league and see how relatively little difference it makes to them.

 

[Quixote]

BTW - yes, the value of the draft picks is not linear.

HOWEVER, how their value is JUDGED (in the media and by the public) IS.


Hence, this exercise.

 

[Jars458]

What about players from the pre season draft a la Simon Goodwin.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

The PSD is a tricky one for numerous reasons. The best solution I can think of right now would be a figure dictating the middle ground between their original draft selection and PSD (70 plus PSD selection). So, if a player was originally drafted at 10, and taken pick 10 in the PSD, he'd have an overall value of 45.

Not a chance 90% of those taken in the PSD would get anywhere near the value you are talking about here. They are there in most cases because they have failed and can no longer get a regular game. If their new environment causes them to turn it around, then good on the club that picked them up. The system really falls down further when you start arbitrarily giving values like that.

The Father/Son... my only thought is that you generously give a value of 16 to each father/son pick. If you look back through the years of these selections (before the rule changes), I don't think there are many that would have survived the First Round.

David Bourke's confidence just went up. Luke Blackwell is another who was taken above his worth because we had to give up a 3rd rounder under the old rules.

I realise all of this is specualtive and you wouldn't go putting your house on it etc etc.

It does, I think, give an insight into the various lists, their drafting strategies and de-bunk certain myths people seem to want to cling onto, year after year.

I don't think it will debunk anybody really. People tend to look at the players that do the most damage and then make a sweeping generalisation about your team. For us it is Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, now Kreuzer, then they ignore Waite, Jamison and Fevola because it does not suit their agenda.

 

[conanthelibrarian]

Just for interest's sake, here's Geelong's team on the weekend.

Milburn - 48
Scarlett - 45
Mackie - 7
Taylor - 17
Harley - 37
Corey - 8
Wojcinski - 24
Enright - 47
Bartel - 8
Stokes - 61
Mooney - 56
Kelly - 17
S.Johnson - 24
Hawkins - 41
Lonergan - 23 (or 120, since he was delisted and rookie listed in 2006)
Blake - 38
Ling - 38
Selwood - 7
Mumford - 127
Rooke - 111
Varcoe - 15
Byrnes - 110

Average = 41.3 (or 45.7 if you use Lonergan's rookie draft position)

 

[lamaros]

Top 15 picks:

STKFC:

Ball – 2
Goddard – 1
Roo – 1
Kosi – 2
Hayes - 11
Dal – 13

Murphy: 1
Kreuzer: 1
Gibbs: 1
Judd: 3
Judd: 4 (Kennedy)
Yarran: 6
Russell: 9

Geelong.

Mackie - 7
Corey - 8
Bartel - 8
Selwood - 7
Varcoe - 15

Now is it just me that looks at these lists and goes "take out those top 15 players from each side and the only one that wouldn't be completely destroyed by doing so is Geelong." (Though Geelong would take a bit of a hit!)

Seems to point at how reliant St. Kilda and Carlton are on their high picks to field a competitive side.

 

[Mr Lizard]

Our team last Friday:

Roughead - 2
Buddy - 5
Lewis - 7
Rioli - 12
Birchall - 14
Brown - 32
Mitchell - 36
Williams - 43
Dew - 45
Bateman - 48
Guerra - 70
Campbell - 70
Osborne - 70
Sewell - 70

Dowler - 6
Murphy - 21
Whitecross - 29
Morton - 33
Tuck - 38
Taylor - 53
McGlynn - 125
Moss - 143

Average - 44

 

[jim boy]

it's pointless saying 'pick 128'. When it comes to the draft there is very little differentiate a pick 60's prospects from a pick 128 prospects. But if you were to differentiate the difference in prospects between a pick 1 and a pick 15, there is a huge difference.

There aint no two ways about it, if you regularly get top 5 picks as the Saints have done, you will end up with a number of guns.

 

[Duritz]

The taunts by the Essendon flogs were no doubt essentially designed to both put down STK and pump up the Dons, by virtue of saying, "We never resorted to high picks and we're still so great" etc.

People who say the value of a pick 1 to pick 10 is more than the value of a pick 100 to pick 110.... and this is true, so I propose the following weighting be applied to each player based on their draft position. Assign each player their weighting, add up your teams weighted figure and divide it by the number of players (should be 22) -

PICK---WEIGHTING
1-----1.00
2-----0.95
3-----0.91
4-----0.86
5-----0.82
6-----0.78
7-----0.75
8-----0.71
9-----0.68
10----0.64
11----0.61
12----0.58
13----0.56
14----0.53
15----0.51
16----0.48
17----0.46
18----0.44
19----0.42
20----0.4
21----0.38
22----0.36
23----0.34
24----0.33
25----0.31
26----0.3
27----0.28
28----0.27
29----0.26
30----0.24
31----0.23
32----0.22
33----0.21
34----0.2
35----0.19
36----0.18
37----0.17
38----0.16
39----0.16
40----0.15
41----0.14
42----0.14
43----0.13
44----0.12
45----0.12
46----0.11
47----0.11
48----0.1
49----0.1
50----0.09
51----0.09
52----0.08
53----0.08
54----0.08
55----0.07
56----0.07
57----0.07
58----0.06
59----0.06
60----0.06
61----0.05
62----0.05
63----0.05
64----0.05
65----0.04
66----0.04
67----0.04
68----0.04
69----0.04
70----0.03
71----0.03
72----0.03
73----0.03
74----0.03
75----0.03
76----0.03
77----0.02
78----0.02
79----0.02
80----0.02
81----0.02
82----0.02
83----0.02
84----0.02
85----0.02
86----0.02
87----0.02
88----0.01
89----0.01
90----0.01
91----0.01
92----0.01
93----0.01
94----0.01
95----0.01
96----0.01
97----0.01
98----0.01
99----0.01
100---0.01
101---0.01
102---0.01
103---0.01
104---0.01
105---0.01
106---0.01
107---0.01
108---0.01
109---0.01
110+--0

 

[discoduck]

Top 15 picks:







Now is it just me that looks at these lists and goes "take out those top 15 players from each side and the only one that wouldn't be completely destroyed by doing so is Geelong." (Though Geelong would take a bit of a hit!)

Seems to point at how reliant St. Kilda and Carlton are on their high picks to field a competitive side.

i agree, but geelong have also been very lucky with a number of third round father sons that would have been first rounders. that should come into the equation at some point as well.

 

[FOOOOTY]

itd be more interesting to see the 22 lowest draft picks at the club and the 'average pick' worked out that way

 

[blues4flag]

Top 15 picks:

Now is it just me that looks at these lists and goes "take out those top 15 players from each side and the only one that wouldn't be completely destroyed by doing so is Geelong." (Though Geelong would take a bit of a hit!)

Seems to point at how reliant St. Kilda and Carlton are on their high picks to field a competitive side.

He's a might fine footballer, no question, but last I checked Judd wasn't two people.

 

[mdc]

PICK---WEIGHTING
1-----1.00
2-----0.95
3-----0.91
4-----0.86
5-----0.82
6-----0.78
7-----0.75
8-----0.71
9-----0.68
10----0.64
11----0.61
12----0.58
13----0.56
14----0.53
15----0.51
16----0.48
17----0.46
18----0.44
19----0.42
20----0.4
21----0.38
22----0.36
23----0.34
24----0.33
25----0.31
26----0.3
27----0.28
28----0.27
29----0.26
30----0.24
31----0.23
32----0.22
33----0.21
34----0.2
35----0.19
36----0.18
37----0.17
38----0.16
39----0.16
40----0.15
41----0.14
42----0.14
43----0.13
44----0.12
45----0.12
46----0.11
47----0.11
48----0.1
49----0.1
50----0.09
51----0.09
52----0.08
53----0.08
54----0.08
55----0.07
56----0.07
57----0.07
58----0.06
59----0.06
60----0.06
61----0.05
62----0.05
63----0.05
64----0.05
65----0.04
66----0.04
67----0.04
68----0.04
69----0.04
70----0.03
71----0.03
72----0.03
73----0.03
74----0.03
75----0.03
76----0.03
77----0.02
78----0.02
79----0.02
80----0.02
81----0.02
82----0.02
83----0.02
84----0.02
85----0.02
86----0.02
87----0.02
88----0.01
89----0.01
90----0.01
91----0.01
92----0.01
93----0.01
94----0.01
95----0.01
96----0.01
97----0.01
98----0.01
99----0.01
100---0.01
101---0.01
102---0.01
103---0.01
104---0.01
105---0.01
106---0.01
107---0.01
108---0.01
109---0.01
110+--0

This is an good idea, but I don't think you've got the numbers right.

The top 5 especially need to fall away quicker (i.e. something like 1 -> 0.87 -> 0.75 -> 0.65 etc...)

I would also slow down between pick 10 and pick 30...I think if given the choice, almost every club would opt for 3 pick 30's over 1 pick 10.

 

[lamaros]

He's a might fine footballer, no question, but last I checked Judd wasn't two people.

You paid two first round picks for him so his presence in your side represents the 'cost' of two first round picks.

 

[Quinz]

Our team on the weekend-

Mitchell Brown- 16
Sam Butler- 20
Adam Cockie- 103
Dean Cox- 115
Andrew Embley- 57
Darren Glass- 11
Shannon Hurn- 13
Brett Jones- 87
Josh Kennedy- 4
Mark LeCras- 37
Quinten Lynch-107
Eric Mackenzie- 29
Chris Masten - 3
Ben McKinley- 29
Jamie McNamara- 91
Mark Nicoski- 108
Matt Priddis- 120
Matt Rosa- 29
Mark Seaby- 22
Adam Selwood- 53
Scott Selwood- 22
David Wirrpanda- 113

Average- 54.05

Wirra was a comp. selection in 1996, we picked him up as a 16 year old, not sure what number he should be, 113 is probably too low. Without him the average is 51.24


I prefer to look at it by draft round though

[B]1st Round[/B]
Chris Masten
Josh Kennedy [TRADE]
Darren Glass	
Shannon Hurn	
Mitchell Brown	
	
[B]2nd Round[/B]
Sam Butler
Mark LeCras
Eric Mackenzie
Ben McKinley
Matt Rosa
Mark Seaby
Scott Selwood

[B]4th Round[/B]
Andrew Embley
Adam Selwood

[B]Rookies
[/B]Adam Cockie
Dean Cox
Brett Jones
Quinten Lynch
Jamie McNamara
Mark Nicoski
Matt Priddis

[B]Other[/B]
David Wirrpanda [Comp. Sel.]

EDIT: I just realised that Hunter, Mackenzie, McKinley, Rosa and Stenglein were all drafted at pick 29. How odd.

 

[witsend]

With out doing the maths, I think you would find the Hawks match up very favorably.

That's the Hawk's way...make the assumption first without letting "facts" dictate the result!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

An interesting exercise would be to name your best side taking away players taken in the first round of the draft (inc priority picks before the first round).

As stated above Geelong would take a hit but not too bad but others would perhaps struggle a lot.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

so flawed it is not funny. You are saying, although croad was pick 3, we can claim him as pick 10 because that is what we paid for him to come back

also, what would hodge be. he is a number 1 draft pick, but wasnt hawthorns original selection, so we can claim it as our #1, would it be the average of Mcpharlin and Croad's picks or what?

 

[half_back_flank]

An interesting exercise would be to name your best side taking away players taken in the first round of the draft (inc priority picks before the first round).

As stated above Geelong would take a hit but not too bad but others would perhaps struggle a lot.

I think that the blues would struggle too ODN. There was a thread going round recently about the lack of first 22 players picked by the blues outside the first round. However in recent years that has change somewhat, look at half your backline atm.

 

[Richo83]

Okay lets do it for Richmond:

Deledio - 1
Cotchin - 2
Tambling - 4
Brown - 7 (by Bulldogs)
Pettifer - 9
Polo - 20
Coughlan - 25
McGuane - 36
Morton - 44
Jackson - 53
Newman - 55
Foley - 73
Tuck - 73
Collins - 73
Moore - 73
White - 75
Raines - 76
Nahas - 78
Graham - 75
Simmonds 79 PSD
Cousins - was a pre draft selection
Bowden - was a pre draft selection

Both Bowden and Cousins don't really have a draft number as I know of. If someone corrects me on this I'd be happy to institute the change.

= 46.5.

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

i agree, but geelong have also been very lucky with a number of third round father sons that would have been first rounders. that should come into the equation at some point as well.

This is what i love about time. It gives people very selective memories.
Fact, and you can look up the papers from the time.
Many pundits thought G.Ablett (junior) solid at best and probably would get drafted because of his dad, widely tipped as third round pick at best a second. very similar story with scarlett.
Hawkins very diffrent probably would have been top two.

 

[Daytripper]

By this rational a trade of picks 1,2 and 80 for picks 20,30 and 33 would be a fair trade for both parties as they average out the same.

I think you just found the flaw in the OP's logic.

 

[Selective Retention]

Taking the 22 also doesn't take into account the picks that clubs have pissed up against the wall i.e. Clarke's at St Kilda.

 

[jonesy86]

Collingwood last round

S.Pendlebury - 5
N.Maxwell - 85
T.Lockyer - 109
L.Davis - 40
D.Swan - 58
A.Toovey - 72
C.Wood - 14
H.Shaw - 48
M.Clarke - 110
H.O'Brien - 90
S.Sidebottom - 11
J.Anthony - 37
S.O'Bree - 71
S.Wellingham - 80
N.Brown - 10
S.Cox - 103
R.Cook - 23
D.Beams - 29
S.Prestigiacomo - 10
B.Reid - 8
L.Brown - 73
A.Corrie - 93

Average 53.59

Which will change a bit when Fraser (1), Thomas (2) and Didak (3) come back in.

 

[Quinz]

You could look at the best 22 also and see how much of an impact the top picks have had- you can have kids drafted in the last year or two from the first round, but the veterans are still more important to the team.

Our B&F results last year:

1- Dean Cox- Rookie
2- Quinten Lynch- Rookie
3- Adam Selwood- Pick 57
4- Andrew Embley- Pick 53
5- Darren Glass- Pick 11
6- Matt Priddis- Rookie
7- Mark Nicoski- Rookie
8- David Wirrpanda- Comp. Sel.
9- Tyson Stenglein- Trade (29)
10- Ben McKinley- Pick 29

We were injury interrupted last year, but some of our other important players this season and last are Daniel Kerr (18), Mark LeCras (37) and Brett Jones (Rookie).

Our first round drafting historically is not that flash at all, but we seem to pick up some decent players lower down.