Teams with the most to lose this Finals Series

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Apr 29, 2009
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North Melbourne
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Quite a few opposition posters have brought up how North topping up with players signaled their intentions for a flag assault and that anything but a top 4 level season would be considered a failure. This got my thinking about which of the teams in the finals this year have got the most hanging on the line in September/October. Feel free to criticise at will and/or construct your own lists:

1. Fremantle

For the first time in their history Freo have got something to put in the trophy cabinet and with this minor premiership comes the expectation of something a bit more significant. Finishing on top of the ladder with a game to spare allowed them to rest players and so with a clean bill of health they have no excuses this September. Have been around the mark for quite a few years and are lined up against a somewhat out of sorts Sydney team (due to injuries) while its biggest rivals for the flag have to duke it out on the other side of the draw. Sandilands, Pav, and other stars are getting on a bit + with the best midfielder in the game this season the Purple Haze will be disappointed bowing out before the last game of the season. They are running out of time to grab that elusive first premiership. What they need: a flag.

2. Hawthorn
May seem a bit harsh but a threepeat does not come around very often (yes I know Brisbane but bear with me). Another flag would transform Clarkson's Hawks from a great team into a dynasty. Admittedly they have had their shares of ups and downs this season and will have to get past a tough West Coast away (or go through the semi-final route) but most fans still have them as the premiership favourites. Like Fremantle they have a few older players who are in their last couple of seasons (although in fairness they have been able to rejuvenate their list quite successfully) so might only see another year as a contender. What they need: a flag.

3. North Melbourne

As previously touched upon North came into the season with high expectation off a surprising preliminary finals appearance. The recruitment of a couple of experienced players; Waite in particular heralded the expectations of a return to at least the second last weekend of the season. After this year and especially 2016 with Harvey, Petrie, Dal Santo, Wells etc. nearing the end, it is now or never to achieve the ultimate glory for these Roo veterans. Another inconsistent season has us in the bottom half of the 8 again so expectations may need to be adjusted but after a controversial selection policy last week bowing out week 1 would be embarrassing. What they/we need: an elimination final win and at least a competitive semi.

4. Richmond

The Tiger army is restless for some September success and the prospect of bowing out in week 1 for the third year in a row would be a nightmare for coaches, fans, and players. Their list is in pretty good shape age-wise so certainly not boom or bust however, finishing a win off top 4 will have the Punt Road faithful hoping to replicate Port and North last season in making it to prelim final week. The Tigers don't have the excuse of inexperience nor spending all their petrol tickets making the 8 this year. What they need: an elimination final win.

5. West Coast

One of the surprise packets of the season West Coast have managed, despite a decimated backline, to finish top 2 on the ladder and find themselves as one of the premiership favourites. There seems no reason why they can't stick around the most desirable positions on the ladder for the years to come, only a decade-ish after they last hoisted the trophy. This reduces the pressure on Simpson and co. however, a straight sets exit would be a disappointing way to end the season and the West Coast faithful are hopeful they might grab their 4th premiership; making them one of the most successful teams in the AFL era. What they need: a preliminary final birth.

6. Sydney

Sydney are their at the pointy end of the season but there seems little hype around last season's runners up. They have a couple of key players injured and haven't showed the dominance that got them into the Grand Final last year. It also seems likely they'll be around the mark again in 2016. Still, as with any top 4 team a loss in the second week of finals would be deemed a failure and there is no reason why some fans wouldn't expect them to knock of a vulnerable Freo. What they need: a preliminary final birth.

7. Adelaide

Facing the toughest of all circumstances this season in tragic fashion a rejuvenated Adelaide side had strong bookends to their season (round 23 aside) and find themselves as one of the hottest teams coming into September. There is little pressure on the team from the city of churches however, with speculation arguably best player Dangerfield is on his way home to Victoria they'd like to have a successful run at it while he is still at the club. What they need: an elimination final win.

8. Western Bulldogs
The most surprising team this season is also the one with no pressure going into the finals series. The young pups have exceeded all but the most optimistic Bulldogs' fans expectations and will host their first final under coaching sensation Luke Beveridge. The future seems bright at Footscray so a flop would not be too disheartening although ending the season with back to back losses would be disappointing, particularly given their successes against other contending sides this year. The Murphy-led Dogs will have no fear against any of the other teams in the 8. What they need: an elimination final win.
 
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Agree with your assessments but don't think Adelaide or Footscray necessarily need to win their elimination final (although obviously one will). If you think of where Footscray came from last year anything on top of a finals appearance is an absolute bonus. And we all know about the emotional trauma the Crows have gone through this season, you couldn't blame them at all if they fell to pieces after the Walsh death, so making the Finals is an incredible achievement in itself.


So I think while the loser will obviously be extremely disappointed at the time, they can look back on the season and be pretty proud of their efforts. Both just need to be competitive in the elimination final.
 
Agree with your assessments but don't think Adelaide or Footscray necessarily need to win their elimination final (although obviously one will). If you think of where Footscray came from last year anything on top of a finals appearance is an absolute bonus. And we all know about the emotional trauma the Crows have gone through this season, you couldn't blame them at all if they fell to pieces after the Walsh death, so making the Finals is an incredible achievement in itself.


So I think while the loser will obviously be extremely disappointed at the time, they can look back on the season and be pretty proud of their efforts. Both just need to be competitive in the elimination final.

That is probably fair.

I did try to take into account changing expectations as the season progressed. So for the Dogs since they've known for almost a month they'd be in finals then you change your definition of success from the new starting point. Of course, their year is going to be looked upon favourably regardless.
 

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North Melbourne certainly have the most to lose as a club.
They have brought in Waite, Higgins and Dal Santo in recent years.
That tells me they figure they saw themselves as a contender for a premiership.
They already have Petrie, Harvey, Firrito and a few other guys in twilight of their careers. If they were to not even get close to winning a grand final they will feel within their club they have lost opportunities in past few seasons to improve their list for long term at expense of short term with nothing to show for it.

Externally Richmond have most to lose in eyes of media as they have hyped them up to think they are going places and are a lot better but they failed big time in recent finals series and if they do again, well, they would lose all sense of respect as a genuine contender and be seen as pretenders all season
Whomever loses next week out of both teams will feel it as a massive failure and rightly so. Especially North after they rested players to improve their chances of going deep into the finals.

Will be interesting to see the fall out afterwards.
 
Letting Sydney off pretty easily. I'd swap Hawthorn with Sydney.
Sydney recruited the big boys on the big bucks.
They need to be winning flags or it's backfired.
Maybe last year was the ultimate failure of expectations. They have exceeded expectations in failure already. Hawthorn going back to back is the opposite. A third flag is definitely the goal but fans are pretty happy as you can imagine
 
Richmond. If they cannot win a final after finishing 5th in the home and away ladder again, I don't know if they ever will with this list.

Fremantle has a lot at stake too. They haven't won a Premiership. If they don't win it this year, they may have to wait a while for their first Premiership because I think this year is their last crack at it
 

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Have to agree
.if the hawks even went out in straight sets they would get a pass of sorts. Not many win three in a row


Sydney sold the farm we need to win a flag with buddy

Freo need to do something

Richmond need to win a final

North are mainly irrelevant

Eagles dogs crows have little to lose in a way
 
Pass marks
Freo - GF Win
WCE - Prelim appearance
Hawthorn - Prelim appearance
Swans - GF appearance
Richmond - competitive in semi
North - Prelim appearance
Adelaide - competitive in elim
Bulldogs - dont turn up at wrong ground on elim day
 
If Hawks lose to West Coast and have to play Freo again for a GF berth, it will be one of the hardest routes to get to a flag.

Brisbane 2003 is the one that stands out at present - Melbourne(QF) -Brisbane (SF) -Sydney(PF) -Melbourne (GF).

If Hawks go Perth(QF)-Melbourne(SF)-Perth(PF)-Melbourne(GF), it will be an awesome achievement.
 
It's said every year really, but this year could be the last before we see a major turnover on the ladder and new contenders emerge. Only a matter of time before GWS and Gold Coast reach finals, the Bulldogs could be around a while, surely Port will rise next year, the Crows have good prospects, even a team like the Saints (or god forbid the Demons) could finally get it together.

With that in mind I'd say Richmond (who are peaking this year really) and North (old list) need it before they're swamped. Hawthorn have already achieved so much. Freo have a year or two still in them under Lyon. Sydney will be hard to beat for years, along with the Eagles probably.
 
Richmond. If they cannot win a final after finishing 5th in the home and away ladder again, I don't know if they ever will with this list.
agree, but North has topped up and put everything in to this year, Tiges would be a couple of years away from their age profile.

A 1 point loss to North would be no disgrace, but Tiges have to show up and neither be blown away early, or overrun late.
 
If Hawks lose to West Coast and have to play Freo again for a GF berth, it will be one of the hardest routes to get to a flag.

Brisbane 2003 is the one that stands out at present - Melbourne(QF) -Brisbane (SF) -Sydney(PF) -Melbourne (GF).

If Hawks go Perth(QF)-Melbourne(SF)-Perth(PF)-Melbourne(GF), it will be an awesome achievement.



Sydney 05 went perth sydney melbourne melbourne
 
Sydney 05 went perth sydney melbourne melbourne

wow, didn't know that. pretty close, had you did Perth/Sydney/Perth/Melbourne - that would've been hard to top in terms of travel.
 
Pass marks for the 8 finalists....

Premiership or bust:

Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney Swans

Avoid a straight sets exit:

West Coast Eagles

Must win a final:

Richmond, North Melbourne

Would love to win the flag, but just getting to the finals after what we've been through is a great achievement:

Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Crows
 
Not often a side going for a 3rd flag in a row has the second most to lose in a finals series. I would have thought Freo having finished on top and won nothing, Sydney who have spent a kings fortune on winning a flag quickly and North who have topped up pushing for a flag have a lot more to lose than we do.
 
Pass marks for the 8 finalists....

Premiership or bust:

Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney Swans

Avoid a straight sets exit:

West Coast Eagles

Must win a final:

Richmond, North Melbourne

Would love to win the flag, but just getting to the finals after what we've been through is a great achievement:

Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Crows

Yep, basically this, although Freo is almost in a category of its own.
 

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Teams with the most to lose this Finals Series

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