Mod. Notice Technological advances in weaponry

[Snake_Baker]

ASPI have a brief article hypersonics, at the end of first para there is a link to a pdf with a detailed report Hypersonic weapons are coming—whether we’re ready or not | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au) Worth a read if you are interested. The weapons require expensive materials and present significant engineering challenges. They may also muddy the waters between a nuclear and conventional attack, which increases the risk of triggering a nuclear war, generally regarded as a bad thing.

I still have significant doubts about how well these weapons will be able to hit moving targets. Firstly because the faster you go, the harder it is to manoeuvre (which is discussed in the article) and secondly there are difficulties with using sensors in the lower atmosphere at hypersonic speeds (heat/ionization/micro impact).

So basically we can punch up 2nd world nations in a skirmish?

 

[CD Xbow]

So basically we can punch up 2nd world nations in a skirmish?

'We' can't because 'we' don't have hypersonics. PRC and Russia have deployed Hypersonics already, so perhaps more correctly say "They can punch up 2nd world nations in a skirmish'

 

[CD Xbow]

The RAN are evaluating 6 different small UAV SEA 129 Phase 5 ITR contenders announced | ADBR as part of SEA128/5. The ADF have already used the ScanEagle and the S100 camcopter. About half the options are rotacraft the others fixed wing. The rotacraft only manage about 6 hours of flight while the fixed wing range from 14 to 24 hours aloft.

 

[CD Xbow]

This is the best video I have seen talking about the impact and in particular the limitations of hypersonic weapons.
Hypersonic Weapons and the Future of Naval Warfare - YouTube

Interesting that in both the glide vehicles and the cruise missiles they may have to slow a bit in terminal phases to use sensors and manoeuvre, bringing them into scope of current antimissile systems. I have been sceptical about our current and near future lasers systems ability to destroy these craft for a few reasons:
- these are robust craft designed to handle high heat
- difficult to keep the laser aimed and focused at that speed, especially if manoeuvring.
- at speeds where they are forming a plasma sheath this will interfere with the laser.

Highly recommended if you have an interest in Hypersonics and prefer something more balanced than the usual tripe.

 

[Werewolf]

Interesting the Russians have historically favoured fighters that fly higher and faster than their counterparts - to help cover their enormous territory - but the Sukhoi 75, while being "cheap", seems to be more in line with the US approach with stealth apparently being the main priority:

Russia's New 'Checkmate' Stealth Fighter: Here Is What We Know

This new jet is reportedly being referred to as “Checkmate,” though this could be an internal project designation rather than an official name.

nationalinterest.org

Meet ‘Checkmate’: Putin given guided tour of new Russian state-of-the-art lightweight stealth fighter jet at MAKS 2021 Air Show

Russian President Vladimir Putin has inspected the brand-new fifth-generation Sukhoi Checkmate maneuverable stealth fighter jet at the country’s annual MAKS Air Show, a plane touted to be a rival to the US’ famous F-35 Lightning.

www.rt.com

 

[Eagle Wrath]

Interesting the Russians have historically favoured fighters that fly higher and faster than their counterparts - to help cover their enormous territory - but the Sukhoi LTS, while being "cheap", seems to be more in line with the US approach with stealth apparently being the main priority:

Russia's New 'Checkmate' Stealth Fighter: Here Is What We Know

This new jet is reportedly being referred to as “Checkmate,” though this could be an internal project designation rather than an official name.

nationalinterest.org

Meet ‘Checkmate’: Putin given guided tour of new Russian state-of-the-art lightweight stealth fighter jet at MAKS 2021 Air Show

Russian President Vladimir Putin has inspected the brand-new fifth-generation Sukhoi Checkmate maneuverable stealth fighter jet at the country’s annual MAKS Air Show, a plane touted to be a rival to the US’ famous F-35 Lightning.

www.rt.com

I've been reading about a potential US vs China war and it sounds like the future is missiles, satelite weaponry and missile defence systems. The US already admit they cant get close to China with ships or fighter jets now, due to the massive amount of anti air defences China have. And Battleships/carriers are a thing of the past.
Obv this is without using Nukes which no-one wants.

‘Sinister’ China challenge US can’t fight

The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it’s not the first time.

www.news.com.au

 

[Werewolf]

I've been reading about a potential US vs China war and it sounds like the future is missiles, satelite weaponry and missile defence systems. The US already admit they cant get close to China with ships or fighter jets now, due to the massive amount of anti air defences China have. And Battleships/carriers are a thing of the past.
Obv this is without using Nukes which no-one wants.

‘Sinister’ China challenge US can’t fight

The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it’s not the first time.

www.news.com.au

Good points. Right on cue, the S-500 missile system has been unveiled:

 

[Werewolf]

Testing advanced multipurpose (AMP) rounds. As a tank fanatic, this is very heartwarming:

US Army's New Tank Munition Combines Four Rounds Into One

The round will change the effectiveness of tank crews on the battlefield.

www.warhistoryonline.com

 

[Mofra]

It's almost surprising this hasn't been developed and deployed more quickly.
Seems to meet the 'elegant solution' criteria.

 

[Opine]

Drones is the future the f35 will probably be the last manned aircraft without a pilot you get more weapons range and bang for buck drone swarms are being worked on
The Chinese are doing a lot of undersea mapping I’d say for there submarine drones

Agree, emergence and importance of drones is fascinating. Really interested in what may be being developed in that space. I think there may always be a role for manned aircraft in situations requiring less dependence on external guidance, and also as additional layer of diligence in error sensitive contexts.

 

[Mofra]

Agree, emergence and importance of drones is fascinating. Really interested in what may be being developed in that space. I think there may always be a role for manned aircraft in situations requiring less dependence on external guidance, and also as additional layer of diligence in error sensitive contexts.

I expect there will still be a role of airborne 'control' aircraft, perhaps AWACs style centres controlling a plethora of drones.

The future of warfare is largely asymmetric too - it's quite feasible the next war will be nerds in control centres trying to hack/disrupt utilities rather than rockets and missiles.

 

[Werewolf]

Interesting the Russians have historically favoured fighters that fly higher and faster than their counterparts - to help cover their enormous territory - but the Sukhoi 75, while being "cheap", seems to be more in line with the US approach with stealth apparently being the main priority:

Russia's New 'Checkmate' Stealth Fighter: Here Is What We Know

This new jet is reportedly being referred to as “Checkmate,” though this could be an internal project designation rather than an official name.

nationalinterest.org

Meet ‘Checkmate’: Putin given guided tour of new Russian state-of-the-art lightweight stealth fighter jet at MAKS 2021 Air Show

Russian President Vladimir Putin has inspected the brand-new fifth-generation Sukhoi Checkmate maneuverable stealth fighter jet at the country’s annual MAKS Air Show, a plane touted to be a rival to the US’ famous F-35 Lightning.

www.rt.com

Maybe the Russians are bragging, but apparently the Su-75 will be able to supercruise (fly supersonic without ever using the afterburner) while the F-35 can't*. I wonder how it will compare in terms of maneuverability, avionics and RCS. My favourite fighter plane is still the F-22, but the Su-57 isn't far behind since it also looks pretty cool and more importantly it's the only fighter so far to have DIRCM laser turrets (x2) which can jam heat seeking missiles - but I'd expect them to be fitted to future fighters. Here we see the Su-57 (note the red ball DIRCM turret!) & Su-75 mockup together:



* Diving from a great height doesn't count!

 

[CD Xbow]

Advanced military drones from a US adversary or something else? Mysterious Drone Swarm's Harassment Of Navy Destroyers Off California Went On For Weeks (thedrive.com) There have been many articles about the 'drone' attacks on USN ships off the coast of California, but I have yet to see someone actually describe what they are seeing. They are labelled as drones. These are different episodes to the 'Tic Tac' event and others the USN has provided imagery for. I get the impression these are smaller craft, and I suspect are glowing, however the narrative labels them as drones sans description. As with the 'Tic tac', I get the impression these are testing us, or perhaps the USN. Interesting times.

 

[CD Xbow]

F35C crash off USS Carl Vinson video Video Supposedly Showing Harrowing F-35 Crash Aboard USS Carl Vinson Leaked Something seems to have gone wrong late in the approach. Lucky no one was killed. Naval aviation is very, very dangerous.

 

[Mofra]

F35C crash off USS Carl Vinson video Video Supposedly Showing Harrowing F-35 Crash Aboard USS Carl Vinson Leaked Something seems to have gone wrong late in the approach. Lucky no one was killed. Naval aviation is very, very dangerous.

Too true - deck landings are the last thing navy pilots learn, be it fixed wing or RAN helicopter pilots.
From memory Seahawks landing on FFGs have something like 16 feet between the rotor edge and the hanger. In heavy seas it's not much margin for error.

 

[Werewolf]

Also not so long ago, there was this incident in the Mediterranean - note the pilot ejects:



IIRC it was caused by ground crew forgetting to remove the vertical lift fan cover (?). We've all made mistakes at work, but that's one seriously expensive blunder! I was just reading they actually retrieved the plane and arrested the person who leaked the footage:

F-35 fighter jet: Wreckage of aircraft that plunged into the Mediterranean recovered and sailor arrested for allegedly leaking footage

The military jet crashed while taking off from the aircraft carrier last month and has now been recovered in the Mediterranean.

news.sky.com

 

[Mofra]

This article is worth noting here:

Australia spent billions on jet fighters off the plan. Now, we’re having trouble even flying them

The myriad problems with Australia’s new fleet of F-35 aircraft mean pilots aren’t getting the flying time they need and the jets themselves are in danger of becoming obsolete.

theconversation.com

I still maintain that Typhoons are a proven capability in the 4.5th gen space would have been a far better (and cheaper) option for our follow on fighter.

 

[the_interloper]

New drone could bolster Australia's ability to counter China

The first military drone to be designed and built in Australia in more than 50 years will strengthen defensive capability in the Pacific, a military analyst says.

www.abc.net.au

There's a bit going on with drones at the moment, some of the capability I've been reading about is scary (and cool to be honest)

 

[Mofra]

New drone could bolster Australia's ability to counter China

The first military drone to be designed and built in Australia in more than 50 years will strengthen defensive capability in the Pacific, a military analyst says.

www.abc.net.au

There's a bit going on with drones at the moment, some of the capability I've been reading about is scary (and cool to be honest)

One word notably absent from that article - Jakata

F-111s could reach Jakata from Amberley without refuelling. Defence still has exercises to defend Australia from "Redland", a numerically superior nation to the north of Australia.

I'd suggest the ability to protect sea lanes between Australia and Singapore is also a top priority in capability.

 

[the_interloper]

One word notably absent from that article - Jakata

F-111s could reach Jakata from Amberley without refuelling. Defence still has exercises to defend Australia from "Redland", a numerically superior nation to the north of Australia.

I'd suggest the ability to protect sea lanes between Australia and Singapore is also a top priority in capability.

From what I've heard (I work vaguely in the sector) the new drones they are developing will have three times the range of the Loyal Wingman, which should be long enough to get to Singapore I'd say.

 

[CD Xbow]

This article is worth noting here:

Australia spent billions on jet fighters off the plan. Now, we’re having trouble even flying them

The myriad problems with Australia’s new fleet of F-35 aircraft mean pilots aren’t getting the flying time they need and the jets themselves are in danger of becoming obsolete.

theconversation.com

I still maintain that Typhoons are a proven capability in the 4.5th gen space would have been a far better (and cheaper) option for our follow on fighter.

There is much untrue in that article. Block IV upgrade does not need a new engine. The reduction in hours is not an availability problem according to th RAAF Defence hits back at ‘false and misleading’ F-35 claims Some of the quotes are taken out of context, even the tone of 'that's terrible, it's got to be upgraded' is rubbish. Show me a fighter that hasn't had significant upgrades? There are none.

I'm not uncritical of the program but this appears to be another beat up.

Yes, the Typhoon was probably one of the few options, however it has a higher sticker price ($124 m USD versus $80 m USD) than the F35 and isn't low observable. It's a program that's had it's own problems including significant cost overruns Raf Typhoon: 'Bad planning' added billions to jet costs I think it is a case of the grass is always greener over the fence.

 

[CD Xbow]

From what I've heard (I work vaguely in the sector) the new drones they are developing will have three times the range of the Loyal Wingman, which should be long enough to get to Singapore I'd say.

Are the new drones you re talking about part of the Loyal Wingman project or someone else?

 

[Mofra]

Yes, the Typhoon was probably one of the few options, however it has a higher sticker price ($124 m USD versus $80 m USD) than the F35 and isn't low observable. It's a program that's had it's own problems including significant cost overruns Raf Typhoon: 'Bad planning' added billions to jet costs I think it is a case of the grass is always greener over the fence.

Are those unit costs accurate? This seems to indicate that unit costs are not quite as static as they appear.

F-35A Jet Price To Rise, But It’s Sustainment Costs That Could Bleed Air Force Budget Dry

A moderate increase in F-35 unit price arguably isn’t the main issue, because procurement accounts for less than a quarter of projected lifetime cost. Instead, a report published by the Government Accountability Office warns that high sustainment costs threaten to break the Pentagon's budget.

www.forbes.com

At $78 million the fifth-generation F-35A’s unit cost compares favorably to the latest non-stealth 4.5-generation Western fighter. The Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen-E and F-15EX are more expensive at $85 to $100 million apiece. The older F-16 and Super Hornet are modestly cheaper at $65 to $75 million each. But while these aircraft do have certain performance advantages over the F-35, all are vastly more vulnerable to long-range anti-aircraft missiles proliferating in militaries across the globe.

However, the F-35 unit price metric has the shortcoming of failing to reflect additional costs in spare parts, logistics facilities and so forth that come with F-35 purchases. When those are spread out across F-35A orders in 2021 they lead to a ‘Gross Weapon Unit Cost’ in budget documents of $110 million for 2021, higher than in preceding years due in part to decreased volume of orders.

 

[CD Xbow]

Are those unit costs accurate? This seems to indicate that unit costs are not quite as static as they appear.

F-35A Jet Price To Rise, But It’s Sustainment Costs That Could Bleed Air Force Budget Dry

A moderate increase in F-35 unit price arguably isn’t the main issue, because procurement accounts for less than a quarter of projected lifetime cost. Instead, a report published by the Government Accountability Office warns that high sustainment costs threaten to break the Pentagon's budget.

www.forbes.com

I used the best and most current prices available. Nearly all the current 4th generation jets have dearer sticker prices than the F35 when you gear them up. With the F35 you don't need extra 'stuff' The F15ex has a sticker price of $87 m USD before you add the additional gear. The Typhoon has always been comparatively pricey. This suggests the UK unit price is $110 m pounds, so for 1 UK Typhoon I could have 3 F35 (maybe) - Royal Air Force - RAF Aircraft - Typhoon FGR4 - Eurofighter - r7a8 - Armed Forces Their calculation seems to be project cost divided by units delivered. From the wiki - Germany estimated the system cost (aircraft and training, plus spare parts) at €120 million

So the Typhoon is a very expensive beasty. Not sure I'd want to pay that much for a jet that isn't a true 5th gen and may struggle to compete through the century.

This is a list from the Times of India showing the dearest fighters Here Are The Most Expensive Fighter Jets In The World These figures seem to match those you can find in the public domain but as you know working out the real cost of complex military equipment is difficult.

Now that the price of F35 has fallen, the arguments against it have shifted to running costs. It's got a target on it's back

 

[the_interloper]

Are the new drones you re talking about part of the Loyal Wingman project or someone else?

I wasn't told the name of it to be honest, would appear to be something like that though.