TENNIS 2025 🎾

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Australian Open R2


Another match where I feel the odds are the wrong way around is the one concerning Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune. Berrettini’s outdoor hard court form and stats don’t warrant him being the favourite here and the head-to-head has been a really bad one for the Italian, too. I worked out career-wise, Rune has won 57% of points on Berretinis 2nd serve. There’s also nothing in the last 12 months on outdoor hard at main level that should make Berrettini favourite. Perhaps the reason for the odds is a perceived lack of fitness/fatigue for Rune, who played 5 sets in R1, but he did also play 5 sets on clay at the French Open last year and came back to win comfortably the next round. This match will also be played at not before 5pm local time on a cool day, so it’ll be only 19-20C when they play, which won’t favour Berrettini.


Rune to beat Berrettini at 2.10 or so
 

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No good there.

Jabeur 2-0 set betting @2.02
Navarro/Wang to go to 3 sets @2.44


Will start with those two for now and hopefully set up the day.
Bang bang!

Having a play with some live betting.

Anisimova to win @5's.
 
Rune to beat Berrettini at 2.10 or so
0.75u

Aminisova to win 1+ Point throughout the whole match at $2.65 vs Radacanu. Radacanu served 15 double faults in her 1st round. I don’t think her serve was particularly strong.

Odds $2.65
Both of these come through.
 
Australian Open Round 3 2025

The weather is set to heat up in Melbourne on Saturday, with a hot and sunny day expected of around 28 to 29 degrees. But on the match-up and on recent form against the best players in the world this looks a bad price on the big-serving American. Musetti has beaten Shelton on both occasions that they’ve met and he’s done it pretty handily, leading the return points won totals by a very big 63 to 38 over the course of the series. And both matches were played in quick conditions (Miami on hard and Queen’s Club on grass) Musetti also wins far more second serve points (66% versus 48%) so it’s been a very good match-up for the Italian so far. Musetti also has a much better record against top-20 ranked opponents in recent times, winning 53% of those matches in the last 12 months, compared to just 25% for Shelton. Musetti’s preparation for this match couldn’t have been better, with a straight sets win over the big-hitting lefty Denis Shapovalov, who’s about as close to Shelton’s style of play as it gets on the tour. Musetti on the moneyline is a decent option, but given the way the match-up has gone so far I’m taking Musetti on the game handicap here.


1 unit – Musetti plus 2.5 games to beat Shelton at 1.81
 

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TENNIS 2025 🎾


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