The 2010 Brownlow Medal -

[adii_7]

Getting in early, 2 weeks before the season's done and dusted..

GIANSIRACUSA Daniel (WBDG) $251.00 for the place.. only 151$ centrebet

Gia Most Votes for the doggies @ 12.00

Goodes for Sydney @ 2.20

Pendlebury @ 4.50 for the Pies.

Goddard for the Saints @ 2.50

Watson should beat Winderlich/Stanton this year.. not 100% sold on betting on that just yet however.

 

[Thursfieldness]

I like all of those bets.

So far I've gone:

- Thompson most Adelaide votes @ 14.00 (into 1.70)
- Franklin most Hawthorn votes @ 11.00 & 16.00 (16.00)
- Didak most Collingwood votes @ 34.00 (34.00)
- Selwood (A.) most WC votes @ 16.00 (16.00)

I'm considering Giansiracusa @ 12.00, he'll have Boyd's measure at least for mine & to place @ 251.00 is value.

Once the agencies that allow multis put their odds out, I'll be taking Goodes @ 2.20 (Syd), Brown @ 2.65 (Bris), Pavlich @ 4.50 (Freo).

As far as the overall winner/top3/top 5, I'm ruling out Hodge and Sandilands, while Swan (and any player at those odds) is too short to win a Brownlow. For mine the best value are Goddard, Judd, Montagna and Chapman.

 

[mike262]

^Pavlich.............
i really think its between sandilands and barlow at freo

Agree with judd. excellent value to win it

 

[sblack]

Statistics board thread >>>> Punting board thread.

Has analysis and all your punting needs in one thread.

 

[Lakey91]

Statistics board thread >>>> Punting board thread.

Has analysis and all your punting needs in one thread.

Exactly and a much better basis than just a gut feel.

 

[beez]

Champion Data says Dane Swan is a monty

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/collingwood-magpie-dane-swan-a-monty-for-brownlow-medal/story-e6frf9jf-1225907014189

 

[Gift]

Champion Data says Dane Swan is a monty

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/collingwood-magpie-dane-swan-a-monty-for-brownlow-medal/story-e6frf9jf-1225907014189

Hopefully he does. Hes going to win every media award around and if he doesnt win the Brownlow it would be kind of a joke esp since both him and Collingwood are going so well

 

[lions_den]

Gia is great value for the Dogs. He's been very average in a lot of games this year but he's also had 5-6 big games. 12-14 votes will probably win it.

 

[PieBeast]

Swan (and any player at those odds) is too short to win a Brownlow.

I'm hoping you just didn't phrase it correctly, otherwise its a very sill thing to say.

On a side note, not sure what Brad Green is paying to be the leading votegetter for the Dees but he'll walk it in IMO.

I reckon the only danger to Swan is Hodge but i have Pendles backed for a stack, is he a sneaky chance ?

 

[clivewaterhousen]

i got on a lenny hayes/geelong multi at the start of the week with a free bet

 

[Thursfieldness]

I'm hoping you just didn't phrase it correctly, otherwise its a very sill thing to say.

On a side note, not sure what Brad Green is paying to be the leading votegetter for the Dees but he'll walk it in IMO.

I reckon the only danger to Swan is Hodge but i have Pendles backed for a stack, is he a sneaky chance ?

I phrased it correctly and am obviously referring to the shortness of his odds, not his stature.

If you have any knowledge of past Brownlow counts, you'd realise the folly in putting any money on the favourite in an event as inherantly wide open as the 'low

Just about every person on here, through the media and anywhere else thought Ablett was a 'certainty' to win in '07 and '08. Happily, I had my money on Bartel (@ 81 & 21) and Cooney (@ 17 (and Richardson @ 301)).

I'm not saying Dane Swan doesn't deserve to win the Brownlow or that he wont, I'm saying that to put money on the favourite in such an event is moronic.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Does anyone know if you can bet live in the run on the brownlow at the tab?. If he did get only 10 votes from 11 rounds you would think he wouldnt be worth backing until they had reached that point , you might get $8-$9 after round 10 because there were a few that would be ahead of him by that stage you would think?. Thoughts?

 

[The Big Woofer]

I phrased it correctly and am obviously referring to the shortness of his odds, not his stature.

If you have any knowledge of past Brownlow counts, you'd realise the folly in putting any money on the favourite in an event as inherantly wide open as the 'low

Just about every person on here, through the media and anywhere else thought Ablett was a 'certainty' to win in '07 and '08. Happily, I had my money on Bartel (@ 81 & 21) and Cooney (@ 17 (and Richardson @ 301)).

I'm not saying Dane Swan doesn't deserve to win the Brownlow or that he wont, I'm saying that to put money on the favourite in such an event is moronic.

I know what you are saying & in many years i have taken the same line of thought....but i feel just as confident on Swan winning easily this year as the year i backed Judd @ $4.75 & he won in a landslide....Swan will win this year & i think his true odds should be $1.90 so the $2.50 on offer is still value in my book--but i do understand your reservations about favourites in the brownlow.

 

[plowking]

I think I mentioned it in another thread, though I had 100 on Ablett at $5.50 and another 50 on Swan when he was $13...

Reassuring to see them the two favourites now, though really doesn't mean much at the end of the day considering Cooney won out of left field one year and you had Ablett faulting when he was looked at as a clear favourite another year.

 

[Thursfieldness]

I know what you are saying & in many years i have taken the same line of thought....but i feel just as confident on Swan winning easily this year as the year i backed Judd @ $4.75 & he won in a landslide....Swan will win this year & i think his true odds should be $1.90 so the $2.50 on offer is still value in my book--but i do understand your reservations about favourites in the brownlow.

I understand what you're saying too, but if you think Swan is value at 2.50, you've either no concept of or are ignoring the nature of the Brownlow medal.

Ablett, Swan and Judd have all had years which could/would easily win them the medal in any season. Goddard, Hayes, Montagna, Selwood, Hodge, Chapman, Didak, Cooney, Boyd and of course Goodes could all also easily win it if they polled as most winners invariably need to.

Further, Swan has not polled well in the past and could be ruled inelligible in the last two rounds.

In stark contrast to your 'value', Swan to win the Brownlow, though he well might, is one of the worst 2.50 chances I've come across in any event, ever.

 

[The_Doctor]

He has gathered 30 touches+ in 15 of Collingwoods 17 wins (plus draw). $2.50 is a fair price and the only thing stopping him from being odds on is the fact he didnt poll as well last year. Having said that though he didnt have as good of a year last year as this year. $2.50 is not really value but is fair enough odds. Thursfieldness you are going a bit over the top saying he is one of the worst $2.50 chances ever!!

 

[The Big Woofer]

I understand what you're saying too, but if you think Swan is value at 2.50, you've either no concept of or are ignoring the nature of the Brownlow medal.

Ablett, Swan and Judd have all had years which could/would easily win them the medal in any season. Goddard, Hayes, Montagna, Selwood, Hodge, Chapman, Didak, Cooney, Boyd and of course Goodes could all also easily win it if they polled as most winners invariably need to.

Further, Swan has not polled well in the past and could be ruled inelligible in the last two rounds.

In stark contrast to your 'value', Swan to win the Brownlow, though he well might, is one of the worst 2.50 chances I've come across in any event, ever.

I've made a profit in 5 of the last 6 brownlow's so i have a very good understanding of the variables involved. I still say $2.50 is value for Swan given i rate his chances at slightly better than 50-50.

Often guys poll better the year after they first start gaining max exposure--Ablett is a good example.

Swan has been the stand out player on the top team & has had great games in most of their wins, if he doesn't win i'll be shocked....we shall agree to disagree on this one.

 

[Thursfieldness]

I've made a profit in 5 of the last 6 brownlow's so i have a very good understanding of the variables involved. I still say $2.50 is value for Swan given i rate his chances at slightly better than 50-50.

Often guys poll better the year after they first start gaining max exposure--Ablett is a good example.

Swan has been the stand out player on the top team & has had great games in most of their wins, if he doesn't win i'll be shocked....we shall agree to disagree on this one.

Better than 50/50? I guess you've loaded up at 2.50 then??

You're having a laugh mate.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Backed Paul chapman Each way @ 126/1 will get $790 if wins and $160 if he places for a $5 e/w bet

 

[daics_35]

Backed Paul chapman Each way @ 126/1 will get $790 if wins and $160 if he places for a $5 e/w bet

He wont win coz he has been charged by the tribunal.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

He wont win coz he has been charged by the tribunal.

only recieved a reprimand which didnt end up in a suspension, deeming him still eligible.

 

[PieBeast]

only recieved a reprimand which didnt end up in a suspension, deeming him still eligible.

Throw your ticket away, Chapman is definitely ineligible.
Same scenario that made Dustin Martin ineligible to win the Rising Star.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Throw your ticket away, Chapman is definitely ineligible.
Same scenario that made Dustin Martin ineligible to win the Rising Star.

dont think so.. i placed it only yesterday if he was ineligible the odds would not have been listed by unitab, as any other player ineligble eg. Motlop or Waite are listed as "suspended"

 

[Jobe Watson]

Sorry mate, but Chapman is 100% ineligible. Hopefully they give you your money back.

Bookies often make mistakes like that and don't update their odds. Ricardo Carvalio was listed as $30 for first goal for Chelsea vs West Brom on Centrebet last week. He doesn't even play for them anymore.

 

[adii_7]

Sorry mate, but Chapman is 100% ineligible. Hopefully they give you your money back.

Bookies often make mistakes like that and don't update their odds. Ricardo Carvalio was listed as $30 for first goal for Chelsea vs West Brom on Centrebet last week. He doesn't even play for them anymore.

typical.